LouisEly
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Everything posted by LouisEly
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Nelson said he has not made a decision and to "not write my story for me". Nelson was a consensus first-team all Big Ten (Josh Jackson the other first team CB, which means he was selected over Ohio State's CBs), and SBNation had him as an honorable mention All-American. He has the size, he ran down Ohio State's RB in the Big Ten Championship game - he's faster than people think - and he led the nation in pass breakups. I have him as a mid-2nd to late 3rd round pick.
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Chatwood to Cubs - 3 years $38 million
LouisEly replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
+1. Either get someone on a one year deal or get a #1/#2 under control for several years and take on salary. No half-arseing it with multi-year deals for #3/#4 starters. -
UCF should be in ahead of Alabama. One of the main reasons Ohio State runs the offense it does is so that the opposing defense can't get set and scheme. UW got little pass rush because they had little time to get set and call their stunts/schemes that free up the blitzing LBs. The flip side is that it causes the offense to make mistakes too, and makes their defense run out of gas because the offense is on the field for so little time. Saw that in the 2nd half - OSU's defense wore down and the Badgers were able to get back into it. The non-PI call was exactly what we were chanting it as. If you want the game to be decided on the field by the players, fine, then don't call the hold. The PI was just as bad as the hold - you either call both of them, or you call neither of them. Should have been 1st and 10 or 2nd and 10. Two years in a row the refs swallow their whistle in the 2nd half against UW.
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Lots of distractions for Ohio State this week - the Barrett knee fiasco, the Schiano fiasco... the defense isn't motivated because Schiano was leaving them. Ohio State's defense wears down in second half, offense has three big turnovers. Owbc is spot on - UW 31, OSU 20. I'll be there - section 439.
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College basketball is very different from college football in that the college basketball tournament is not held anywhere close to finals. Once you start getting into mid-December, you have finals. No matter what argument is made, the more teams that enter the playoff the further down the list the argument about who is in and who isn't goes. That will never go away. I'll never get behind more than 8 teams in the playoff. But I might get behind an eight team playoff under the following conditions: 1) The conference champions of the big 5 conferences are automatically in (Big 10, Big 12, SEC, ACC, Pac 12) 2) Any other undefeated teams take the next spots (independents, non-Power 5); there have never been more than three, so this should not be an issue 3) Fill in the rest with next highest rated teams (average of AP and Coaches polls, normalize points in case of ties) 4) First round is held on Christmas Eve during the daytime; second round on New Year's day 5) Seeds based on average ranking (AP and Coaches poll, points normalized for ties), but fewer losses determine home team; if same losses, higher ranking gets home game. First round played at schools, second round at bowls. I don't see any other way to go to eight and be objective about who is in and where/when it's played.
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The appeal of Fiers is that he can probably be had on a one year deal (and he also has done really well against the Cubs - career OPS-A of .618, 12.2 K/9 - and Cardinals - career 1.45 ERA). The Brewers may need a starter in 2018, but in 2019 there will be plenty of competition for starting spots - Nelson, Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Hader, Burnes, Ortiz, Peralta, Houser, Suter, Perrin, Derby. What I don't want the Brewers to do is half-arse it with a #3/4 starter type on a multi-year deal (i.e. Cobb). Either go with a Fiers type on a one year deal and then go with prospects in 2019, or trade some prospects for a #1/2 starter with several years left on his contract and take on some salary.
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Your Prospect Don’t Trade List
LouisEly replied to Jenkins5's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I think I had a thread on this a while back. Who I'd have to be overwhelmed to trade: Woodruff, Hader, Burnes, Erceg Harrison and Lutz could be special, but they are still a long way off (Harrison has not seen AA yet) and the Brewers have a ton of OF. Why Erceg? I believe LH/RH lineup balance is synergistic (i.e. sum is greater than the parts), and a LH 3B could be worth a ton (like Shaw this year). It's easier to find LH OF, but LH IF (other than 1B) and C are much harder to find. Everyone else has enough question marks that they may or may not pan out. Brinson (plate discipline), Hiura (defense, shoulder, ability to stick at 2B), Ortiz (conditioning/durability), Peralta (control/walks), Phillips (swing-and-miss), Clark Grisham (hit tool/power). Erceg has plenty of question marks, but 3B is a tough position for prospects to stick at and like I said a LH 3B (with a plus arm) is not easy to find. -
How many people have left Marquette prematurely (not counting Ellenson) the last four years? Cheatham, Carter, Cohen, Burton, Wilson, Dawson, McKay, Taylor. Jamal Ferguson transferred, but that was before Wojo got there. Excluding this year's class and excluding Ellenson, that's nine transfers versus five players who have stayed (so far) among the last 14 recruits. Something is going on there. I can see Wojo expecting guards (who are a most of the tranfers) to be as good as he was, and if that's the case he can't have those expectations. Eight scholarship players plus Eke redshirting, with Froling coming in at semester and Morrow and Bailey coming in next year. Need to add a guard next year, at this stage likely a graduate transfer.
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Thames did cool off, but still posted a .794 OPS in the 2nd half and had a 1.004 OPS in 72 PAs in Sept/Oct. His numbers are not that skewed by his April. He had a bad June and August, but posted a .861 OPS in July as well. Abreu is a better hitter, but a big reason why the Brewers can even consider adding a FA/trading for a good SP is because they are getting great production from a 1B platoon that costs them <$6M/year. Add in Abreu's arbitration raise... and that inhibits their ability to add pitching.
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This. For years we had zero offensive threats off the bench (2011 - the feared bench of Kotsay, Counsell, Hairston, Felipe Lopez, and Josh Wilson who I don't even remember, or remember that 2014 1B platoon of Overbay and Reynolds, both of whom had a <.700 OPS, plus Elian Herrera, Logan Schafer, and Jeff Bianchi?) Now we have a legitimate threat off the bench, and we want to get rid of him?
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Clemson vs Miami - winner is in, loser is out. Clemson lost to a 4-8 team, Miami lost to a 5-7 team. UW should be ranked higher than both. Hell, if UW loses they should be in over those two because their one loss will be to Ohio State. Much "better loss" than either of Clemson's or Miami's. Oklahoma wins and they are in. Auburn vs Georgia - not sure if Auburn is in if they win. They've never taken a 2-loss team before. If Georgia wins they are in. Then you have WI versus Alabama. I hope the committee sees that Alabama's wins (Miss St, LSU, next is probably Fresno State) are less impressive than WI's wins (Northwestern, Michigan, Iowa, Florida Atlantic, assuming Ohio State). Breaking - rumors that Ohio State DC Greg Schiano is heading to Tennessee. Then the Barrett/photographer fiasco. Lots of distractions for Ohio State this week.
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Counts as a second line, and a $25/line charge.
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Watch on Firefox browser with uBlock extension. I recall only seeing the broadcast commercial breaks; definitely none during the game.
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At a one-time cost of $695. Given that I'll probably only have my vehicle for three more years at most, maybe less, I think $50/year for a pre-paid GSM SIM card is the better deal.
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I thought I read that MLB was working with the players union on discipline for the representatives/agents. Yep - last paragraph: https://www.baseballamerica.com/international/mlb-removing-prospects-braves/#otUm3WRrFED1czeJ.97
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Car jackings are up in Chicago. I think it might not be a bad idea to invest in a vehicle GPS tracker. Problem is that I can only find two types - ones that charge $20+/month (for monitoring commercial vehicles or how your kids drive, don't need that), or ones that you can ping and it will send you a link with location on Google Maps (perfect) but need a prepaid 2G SIM card (which are hard to find). Anyone have any recommendations for a vehicle GPS tracker, or know where I can get a 2G SIM card? I'm looking for one that I can hide in the vehicle and look up the location in case it gets stolen. I've heard that T-Mobile has prepaid 2G SIM cards for $3/month, but internet searches have come up empty.
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What I see here is the correlation between K rates and walks/power (no statistics quoted, just theoretical), K rates and ERA (I thought we established that ERA has its flaws as a measuring stick), K rates and wOBA (ok), and an explanation of physics relating to statistics (ok), but baseball is a team sport where wins are based on runs scored versus runs given up. Offensive K rates have no effect on runs given up, so the measurement is K rates to runs scored. What I have not seen is the correlation between team K rates and runs scored. Runs determine wins - that's what matters. Over the last five seasons, there is almost no correlation between team K rate and runs/game (-0.07). Among basic stats, the strongest correlation is with OPS (.938), followed by SLG (.899), then OBP (.836), then BA (.679). Low correlation between team LOB and team runs scored (.173) as well. That being said, balls in play - over the course of a season - will always have a higher OPS than a strikeout. Therefore, a strong argument can be made for not striking out. But the data that we don't have is OPS of free swinging for power versus the OPS of a more controlled swing trying to make contact. That is what will determine the value of a strikeout, and we will likely not have that data anytime soon.
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Didn't someone else post about him a while back - Briggs? I'd take a flyer. I think his floor would be a decent bullpen arm. Guys who have four above-average pitches and can throw any pitch at any count can be very good starters.
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2017 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster
LouisEly replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Technically no, he did not - he posted that before the Brewers added Wilkerson. He missed on him. One person did have it right from the start (we're counting "Probablys", right?)... -
Nottingham is nowhere near close enough to compete for a roster spot - he'll likely repeat AA - so why worry about carrying four catchers?
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Now you get vouchers, but have to exchange them before the game. Gates open up 1 hour before kickoff. You walk in, exchange your voucher for a ticket, they give you a random section. There are valid reasons for not showing up - coming down with the flu, having to work, big assignment due on Monday, etc. - and the entry system is horrible. But no excuse for not being there by the second quarter. Best is rewarding for showing up on time. Raise ticket prices by $5, get a $10 "rebate" if your student ID is scanned 20 minutes before kickoff, a $5 rebate if scanned by kickoff (i.e., 11:05 for an 11am game). Acts like a sunk cost - people irrationally overvalue sunk costs. Call it a "deposit" or something, and if your ID isn't scanned by kickoff you lose your deposit. (Behavioral economics - people are more motivated to avoid losses than get similar gains.)
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Rumor is that Barry is going to take some student section tickets away next year. This is why. That's with 2:24 left before halftime. I get that it's a horrible system for getting into the game, and that's why many students aren't in their seats until the end of the first quarter, but this is unacceptable for a game this big.
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How's the weather where you live? Having the signal go out in rain is a pain... because when it's raining is when I'm going to be inside looking to watch TV. The only place I'd consider satellite is if I lived in the southwestern US. They don't credit you when the weather causes loss of signal. I'd be curious as to what the individual costs are for each provider when you break it down into its parts - TV, premium channels, internet, phone, taxes, fees. Taxes and fees can vary depending on where you live. Post who your provider is and what these amounts are (making sure to indicate what your internet speed is and if you have any extra channels). I have Xfinity in Chicago: TV (220 channels, a middle-of-the-road package) + 75 Mbps internet + Starz (which I can't remove from the bundle) = $110 (claims to have $40 discount for bundle) DVR (which is horrible, but they only have one option) = $10 Broadcast TV (local channels) fee = $7 Regional sports fee = $5 (necessary for Big Ten Network) Taxes, surcharges, and fees = $15 Total - $147
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I think Purdue is underranked right now. They have all the ingredients for a national championship team - perimeter shooters on the outside, and two 7'+ guys on the inside who can take you 1 on 1. Good athletes with good perimeter defense, and if you drive you have two 7'+ guys swatting away your stuff inside. I think Haas has been and is underrated, the 7'3" backup is very athletic for a guy that size, and they're not even close to the best players on that team. Not sure what the odds are that Vegas is giving to win the national championship, but I'd lay some money down on them.
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Well, that kind of runs in his family, but that's a discussion for the Political Forum.
