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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    Not picking on you personally, but Arrieta stinks in Baltimore and goes to Chicago and becomes a star who people want to sign as a FA; however, Anderson goes from ARI to MIL, has a very good year and a half stretch, but "overachieved" and is due for regression. Why are players on other teams who improve later in their career stars who we want, but when Brewers improve they overachieve and are due for regression?
  2. LouisEly
    You also left out no Garza, Peralta, Milone, Feliz, Torres, Scahill, Espino, Marinez, and Jungmann, who combined for 350 IP last year. That is not insignificant.
  3. LouisEly
    Remember Sickel's disclaimer: A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. The Brewers have 25(!) C+ guys.... and that C+ list does not include Payton Henry, Cooper Hummel, Max Lazar, Jesus Lujano, Ernesto Martinez, Jr, Chad McClanahan, Karlos Morales, Brendan Murphy, Antonio Pinero, Michele Vassalotti, or Devin Williams, guys who have some legitimate upside. It's not a system loaded with C guys who are in AAA/AA, these guys could develop into B- prospects a year from now; B- currently gets you a top-10 ranking (#11, Grisham, is a C+/B-), B currently is top-5. If one out of every five of these C+/low-level C guys develops into a B prospect... that's seven more B prospects. That would be huge.
  4. LouisEly
    What are Ponce's injury issues? He missed 40% of 2016, but no other time that I am aware of and has not had any major surgeries that I am aware of. I wouldn't call that "injury issues"; lots of guys miss parts of seasons for minor injuries. I'd maybe argue low ceiling, but a #4/5 starter IMO is much more valuable than a backup MI.
  5. LouisEly
    Along this topic, wondering about people's experiences with fitness tracker watches, such as the Garmin Fenix. Several friends have a Fenix 3, but they are huge - I have small wrists and a 45mm case diameter is pretty much ideal.
  6. LouisEly
    How come? I ask because it just makes too much sense to put him in AAA over losing another pitcher because they don't have options. 1) It makes too much sense to keep the 8 best relievers. That's why they invested in Yelich and Cain - the window is open. B) If they don't make the team, what are the chances they are good enough to make someone else's team? Most of the guys who don't make the team aren't claimed by other teams. I'm not going to get worked up over losing Gallardo, Guerra, Drake, Webb, or even Lopez at this point.
  7. LouisEly
    Remember, Houser made the majors at age 22. Medeiros will be 22 next season and will have to make huge strides to get a September callup. We don't even know if Medeiros will start the year in AA. Houser had some sketchy minor league numbers before coming to MIL but he pitched in very hitter-friendly environments (CA League, TX League). Medeiros has similar numbers but pitched in pitcher-friendly environments.
  8. LouisEly
    Duke has allegedly/reportedly been named in the FBI probe into college basketball according to ESPN (Golic & Wingo) this morning. I do not like Duke, but that aside, if they are found to have committed violations for 2014-2015 season... does Wisconsin have their first national championship?
  9. LouisEly
    And he's answering questions right now.
  10. LouisEly
    Souza gets Banda, Solak, and two PTBNL. Dickerson gets DFA'd. Anyone else find that strange?
  11. LouisEly
    Problem is he is no longer durable, missed six games over the last two years with the Bears and didn't start a seventh. If they trade Rodgers, it better make the Cowboys' return for Herschel Walker look light, and he's worth it.
  12. LouisEly
    The Bears have declined the 2018 option on Josh Sitton...
  13. LouisEly
    It's more about VORP than OPS/OPS+. The glut of corner OFs/DHs - and good ones - has reduced the delta between him and the average available corner OF/DH. Put those numbers on an athletic CF with good defense... very different story.
  14. LouisEly
    Huge come-from-behind win at Creighton last night, especially without Howard. Anim taking a big step forward and has been playing great the last few weeks. Their last four are very winnable, and if so, that would put them at 19-11 and 10-8 in the Big East. Not only will that get them in, but I think it could get them up to a 7 seed depending on how they do in the Big East tourney.
  15. LouisEly
    Wonder if KC is now interested in a cheap LH/RH 1B/DH two-player combo so that Braunie can move to 1B...
  16. LouisEly
    Happens to lots of players in every sport. They think they're the shizzle (because in high school and the minors they were) and what they are/have is good enough because it always has been. That's why many players break out later in their career (mid-20's) - they get released and suddenly realize how not-great they are.
  17. LouisEly
    They still have to expose him to waivers if he doesn't make the team. The split contract give him incentives to stay w/the Brewers as opposed to signing a minor-league deal elsewhere. CS is obviously a bad place for pitchers to go, and the Brewers might need to give extra incentives for pitchers to go there.
  18. LouisEly
    Facebook uses tagging and machine learning to feed algorithms to determine what stories make it to the top of your feed. Every post is tagged for content including pictures (I've seen pictures when the feed is slow to load and for a brief second before the picture loads it will say things like, "This picture may contain a dog, (etc.)"). When you hide a post, machine learning picks up the tagged content of that post and slowly learns not to put that content at the top of your feed. You have to keep doing that for a little while for the machine learning to figure out you don't want to see that content. But it will allow you to still follow your brother/sister/etc.
  19. LouisEly
    When it comes to pro sports, Vegas is usually pretty darned close. Given the Pirates "rebuild" and the Cardinals losing Lynn (likely), Oh, Rosenthal, Piscotty, and Grichuk and picking up only Ozuna, I'd be inclined to take the over.
  20. LouisEly
    Hendricks and Anderson are under 30 and Estrada has fallen off in his early 30's (had two good years in Toronto, but the FIP suggest some luck). Estrada's FIP every year since turning 30 has been >4.00 with two years being 4.61 and 4.88.
  21. LouisEly
    That was Tommy John, which most pitchers have. Obviously you assess how much he's bounced back from it and if he even might be underpriced since this year will be his 2nd year after his comeback or if he never will recover...but Tommy John is no longer a kiss of death and one can hope that his 2nd surgery won't be anytime soon. It's another thing that can happen to almost anyone. In isolation, yes, TJ isn't the worry that it used to be... but you still have the Missaki's and the Kirby's and the Daniel Hudson's for whom it doesn't work and have a second. My point is that it's not in isolation, as Cobb hasn't started 30 games in a season since 2012. TJ was 2015 and 2016. The line drive off the head was 2013. What about 2014 when he was out from mid-April to late May? What about 2017 when he missed most of the month of August? It's not any one thing... it's the combination of all of those things and being 30 next season. Will he be able to throw his split-finger again with the frequency he used to? If he does... what type of risk of reinjury does that impose on a four year deal? If he doesn't... what will his performance be?
  22. LouisEly
    Jeremy Hellickson has not aged very well for a changeup pitcher, and has struggled to come back from his injury in 2014; 2016 was good, but 2015 and 2017... not so much. And he's only a year older than Cobb. I'm more concerned about Cobb's inability to stay healthy enough to start 30 games in a season during his physical prime than his pitch types. One of Cobb's major injuries was getting hit in the face by a line drive. Are we going to worry about that with all of our pitchers? I don't think that's why he missed all of 2015 and most of 2016.
  23. LouisEly
    Jeremy Hellickson has not aged very well for a changeup pitcher, and has struggled to come back from his injury in 2014; 2016 was decent, but 2015 and 2017... not so much. And he's only a year older than Cobb. I'm more concerned about Cobb's inability to stay healthy enough to start 30 games in a season during his physical prime than his pitch types, particularly on a 4-year deal. I'd be OK with Cobb on a 2-year deal, but a four year deal no way.
  24. LouisEly
    Of course Cobb is better than Suter or Wilkerson, but not on a 4 year deal at age 30. Garza's age 25-29 seasons: FIP (weighted): 3.90, K/9: 8.0, BB/9: 2.9, HR/9: 1.0; slightly, but not significantly, worse than Cobb's career so far. You also missed one critical factor with Cobb - he's only started more than 30 games in a season once, and that was back in 2012. Garza started at least 30 games in a season six times through age 29. Garza through age 29 looks a lot like Cobb through age 29, but was much more durable.
  25. LouisEly
    I'd rather roll with Suter/Wilkerson than sign a 30-year-old Matt Garza Alex Cobb for four years. Multi-year deals for 30-year-old #3 starter types haven't worked real well around here. Taking the journeymen out of the discussion, the Brewers have Suter/Wilkerson right now with Burnes, Ortiz, Peralta, Perrin, and Derby waiting in the wings in case of injury/ineffectiveness. I'd rather roll with that and then re-evaluate in June if a trade needs to be made than sign Cobb for four years.
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