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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    The best thing for Wisconsin will be for Alabama and Miami to win out. Then Auburn will have a 3rd loss, Georgia will have a 2nd loss, Clemson will have a 2nd loss (I don't think they should need to have a 3rd loss, having lost to a team that's 4-6). Then you look at Oklahoma and Wisconsin rounding out the top 4. The next best thing will be for Oklahoma to lose to WVU or in the Big 12 Championship game. What I worry about is Alabama losing to Auburn, Georgia beating Auburn, and Miami beating Clemson. Then you have two 1-loss SEC teams (Alabama, Georgia) with an undefeated Miami and one-loss Oklahoma. That's the one scenario I can see where Wisconsin could be on the outside looking in.
  2. LouisEly
    Cobb is a 30-year-old Matt Garza with a major injury history. Is that what we want?
  3. LouisEly
    Draft position is a cop-out when looking at one or two years. But when 2/3rds or more of the league is drafting ahead of you for seven consecutive seasons... it piles up.
  4. LouisEly
    Considering that the Packers have been consistently drafting at the end of the round (29, 27, 30, 21, 26, 28, 32) they have had good drafts. TT's epic failure has been the refusal to part with late round picks in in-season trades to shore up areas of weakness, especially when they have had plenty of salary cap room to take on contracts. Failure to trade for a CB last year, and in previous years a RB, DL, LB, etc. To pass up on the next Kofi Amichia, Kyle Murphy, Christian Ringo, Kennard Backman, Demetri Goodson, etc., for the opportunity to trade for a veteran to shore up a weakness... inexcusable.
  5. LouisEly
    4th on the team in tackles, four sacks, an interception, and four passes defensed. The sacks and passes defensed would tie for the team lead with the Packers, the tackles would lead the Packers LBs (excluding Jones and Burnett) and no Packers LB has an interception. (For reference, King has two passes defensed and no interceptions.) Pretty darned good for a rookie.
  6. LouisEly
    The question is whether they didn't offer those guys, or if they did and they refused and chose to leave. Likely some of both, injury recovery may have played a role with some (Nolin, Barrios), but if the "better" guys on that list were offered but chose to leave, there may be some reverberations from how the Brewers handled roster selection out of spring training (Cravy, Scahill, etc.) and pitchers feeling like they won't get a fair shake if they have to pitch in Colorado Springs. We'll likely never know for most of them.
  7. LouisEly
    I wouldn't hold my breath for FSU winning at Clemson, especially with how bad FSU played at BC two weeks ago, but you know this is FSU's bowl game and they would love nothing more than beating Clemson at their house.
  8. LouisEly
    Still a lot left to sort things out. Oklahoma plays TCU and WVU at home - not easy wins - and then the Big 12 Championship, plenty of opportunities to get a 2nd loss. Weird observation - if Ohio State loses more games, that makes Oklahoma's win less impressive. Need to root for whoever plays Ohio State. Ohio State plays Michigan State at home, then at Michigan. Michigan State #13 now; if they beat OSU they should vault into the top 10. Also need to root for whoever plays Syracuse, as Clemson's loss looks worse the more that Syracuse loses. Syracuse losing to FSU yesterday helps. Miami has Notre Dame, then likely Clemson in the ACC Championship. If Miami beats ND then ND has two losses, if Clemson beats Miami then you have a 1-loss Clemson team with a bad loss to Syracuse.
  9. LouisEly
    Thanks as always for putting this together. Having done it once, it's a pain in the arse. It's easy to play the what-if game with draft picks, but it kind of makes me sick to think where the Brewers would be if they had drafted Trea Turner instead of Medeiros and Puk instead of Ray. Both were the next pick after the Brewers picks.
  10. LouisEly
    If you had scheduled Michigan State for 2016, what type of a team would you have thought you were playing? If you had Western Michigan in 2016, what type of team would you have thought you were playing? If you had scheduled Notre Dame last year, what type of team would you have thought you were playing? Based on Notre Dame's 2016 season, what would you have expected of them in 2017? A lot can change in a year, much less the 5 years in advance these games are scheduled.
  11. LouisEly
    Highly likely, especially if they give Hader every opportunity to try to make it as a starter, which they should. I think that's also a big part of their player acquisition strategy. Despite his plate discipline warts, Hernan Perez has a lot of value to the Brewers because he can play seven positions adequately (and is a better OF than many on this board give him credit for). I think that's also a big reason for letting Gennett walk; despite their other strategy for LH/RH balance, Gennett offers no positional flexibility. While that came back to bite them in the butt a bit, they certainly cannot have anyone on their bench next year who cannot play multiple positions if Hader is in the rotation.
  12. LouisEly
    Assuming the Brewers give Hader every opportunity to succeed as a starter, I go for another lefty in the pen - Jake McGee or Tony Watson. That they didn't call up Webb in September implies they don't have a lot of confidence in him.
  13. LouisEly
    I think this is looking pretty spot-on. Garza and Walker become free agents, resign Swarzak (he said he really wants to return), leaves four spots - Dubon, Peralta, Diplan, Nottingham. Although with the Brewers resigning Sogard, there might be a chance they protect Orf if they deal Villar.
  14. LouisEly
    Not surprising, Penn State almost knocked off Ohio State on the road. TCU's loss was at Iowa State, who also knocked off Oklahoma, who beat Ohio State. The Badgers haven't beaten any top 25 opponents, and they haven't walked over anyone since BYU. I think a big part of that is injuries to their top four RBs (Taylor, James, Shaw - he isn't 100%, Deal) and four of their top five receivers (Peavy, Fumagalli, Davis, Rushing, and now Cephus has a head injury). Their depth at the end of the Illinois game was a less-than-100% Shaw and Groshek at RB, and Taylor/Pryor/Roy/Krumholz at WR. That being said, the rankings don't really take into consideration injuries.
  15. LouisEly
    Right team and position, different player - Tyler White. White's career minor league line is .301/.397/.500, and this past season he played over 100 innings at every position in the infield with 3B being the most often. Career minor league K rate of 15% and BB rate of 12%. wRC+ of 130 at AAA this past season. Kemp's career minor league line is .310/.388/.419.
  16. LouisEly
    Are the first two lists on this page the same person? Seem eerily similar to me, and the bottom halves exactly similar.
  17. LouisEly
    Who said he has below-average tools? (Please don't reference pre-draft scouting reports that are now 3.5 years old.) Brian Dozier hit 16 HRs and had a .409 SLG in 1613 minor league plate appearances. What did people say about his tools? He got stronger, made some adjustments, and look at him now. Why can't Stokes do the same thing? You're right in that Stokes and Khris Davis aren't comparable right now - but also remember that Davis was 2-3 years older than Stokes at every level of the minors. Also note that I did say that Stokes is faster and a better defender; you have to take that into consideration in addition to raw power. Stokes will not be a negative-value defender like Davis is.
  18. LouisEly
    As long as at least 30 people submit lists, one oddball list will not affect overall ratings. But why someone would have Dallas Carroll ahead of Hiura - who hit much better at a much younger age at the same level - is beyond just looking at basic stats.
  19. LouisEly
    Why can't Stokes be a Khris Davis with a little less power but faster and better defensively (and a better walk rate and lower K rate)? He was only 21 this past season. 40-HR seasons are not likely, but in 2014 Davis put up a 2.1 bWAR season with 22 HRs and a .756 OPS. Davis only once hit 20 HRs in a season in the minors, 22 in low A at Wisconsin at the age of 22 (*probably would have hit 20 if not injured in 2012, but he was also 24 that season). Stokes hit 20 at one and two levels higher and at a year younger.
  20. LouisEly
    Let me get this straight... Stokes last year at the age of 21 split the season between A+ and AA where he put up just under a .800 OPS and 20 HRs/30 SBs. Orimoloye last year, at the age of 20, put up a .632 OPS and .281 OBP in low A with 11 HRs/38 SBs. Both were 4th round picks, Stokes is 11 months older. But Orimoloye is the better prospect. OK...
  21. LouisEly
    Don't forget, playoffs three seasons in a row. Yeah, I wish the Brewers were so "flawed". I'm struggling to think of a team that has made the World Series recently that didn't make a big acquisition for prospects or dip heavily into free agency for someone who was instrumental in getting there. 2017 - Dodgers (big time free agency), Astros (Verlander); 2016 - Cubs (Chapman, Montgomery), Indians (Miller); 2015 - Royals (Cueto, Zobrist), Mets (Cespedes, smaller deals for Reed, Uribe, Clippard to fill holes) The reality appears to be that you have to go out and get additional pieces to put you over the top, and to do so you either have to spend big time in free agency (not a likely path for the Brewers) or give up some prospects.
  22. LouisEly
    I don't know who you think the 3rd piece of the Lind deal is, but it was Daniel Missaki and he isn't on your list. On a side note, I can't believe how many lists don't have Adrian Houser on it. He was in the majors at the age of 22 before getting hurt. Like Taylor Williams, there's a reason the Brewers protected him from the Rule 5 draft despite being unable to pitch.
  23. LouisEly
    That's so Brewers. The year they get the #2 overall pick ends up being perhaps the weakest draft class of the last 20-30 years. Weeks was a good pick - the 7th highest bWAR of that first round (#7 of 37 picks, with one of the players ahead of him being pick #37) and by far the highest bWAR of any of the top 6 picks. Meanwhile, when the Cubs get the #2 overall pick, Kris Bryant is sitting there. Sigh.
  24. LouisEly
    Kike Hernandez
  25. LouisEly
    The score of the Cubs - Dodgers game right now.
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