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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    Anyone have any advice on TV/internet companies in Chicago? I'm talking Chicago proper, not the 'burbs. If I'm reading Comcast's website correctly, you have to have the biggest/most expensive TV package in order to get the Big Ten Network, and I think that is ridiculous. There's a company called RCN that has both TV and internet with all the channels I want for a good price, but when I put in my future address it says they can't find it (doesn't say they don't service it, just that they can't find it). I'm wondering if they service just multi-units (condos, apartments, etc.), but the website says residential. If RCN is not an option, it looks like it might be TV through DISH and internet through Comcast, but I'm trying to avoid satellite as I hate it when rain interrupts the signal.
  2. LouisEly
    Not to pick on you specifically, because others have a similar sentiment, but why think Rivera is a shoe-in yet have a strong desire for Nieuwenhuis to be gone? They seem to be somewhat similar players - Nieuwenhuis is a pretty good defender with position flexibility and not a great hitter for his position. I'd be shocked if Rivera ever posts a .630 OPS in the majors because his minor league career OPS is .632. Rivera's career minor league OBP is .287, whereas Nieuwenhuis' career major league OBP is .313. KN is no starter, but if Rivera is a shoe-in for a backup IF position why not KN for a backup OF position?
  3. LouisEly
    Assumptions - offseason trade Braun, Garza, Torres, one of Maldy/Pina C: Susac, one of Maldy/Pina (trade the other) 1B: Carter 2B: Gennett (hope he is traded, but don't think it will happen) SS: Arcia 3B: Villar Bench: Perez, +NRI (Pinto) LF: Santana CF: Broxton RF: Puig (or someone who Puig is traded for) Bench: Wren, +NRI (Reed, KN, or Zach Walters) SP: Peralta, Guerra, Anderson, Davies, Nelson RP: Thornburg, Barnes, Knebel, Cravy, Marinez, Suter, Blazek Off the 40-man: Rowen, Scahill (hope packaged w/Braun to LA), Boyer, Rivera, Reed, Elmore, Nieuwenhuis, Capuano, Goforth, Cecchini, Wilkins; Pinto depends on roster space Deadline 2017 - trade Guerra, one of Anderson/Nelson, bring up Hader, one of Jungmann/Woodruff Next offseason - trade Puig (after he re-establishes value), other of Anderson/Nelson
  4. LouisEly
    You left out Jungmann. More to prove your point. I believe the Brewers have one of the top 2nd half SP ERAs in the league, and I believe at one point in September it was #1. From the Positive Post thread, these are the SP ERAs for the 2nd half of the season: Peralta - 2.92 Guerra - 2.29 (only 39 innings) Anderson - 3.02 Garza - 4.16 Davies - 3.82 Nelson - 6.10 (Leaving out Suter & Jungmann due to small sample sizes)
  5. LouisEly
    As Porky Pig would say, "Eh-buh-deet, uh-buh-deet, uh-buh-deet, uh that's all folks."
  6. LouisEly
    The team roster page(s) have been giving me an error for a while, I'm assuming they are no longer maintained: http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewTeamClubhouse.do?teamId=1 If this is the case, where is a good place to go to find info on options remaining?
  7. LouisEly
    3 blown saves in a row for Thorny. Hope he is ok. Still have Barnes, Knebel, and Magnifico if they want to have a bullpen day, correct?
  8. LouisEly
    9 of Peralta's last 10 starts were quality starts. The 2nd half ERAs of the starters: Peralta - 2.92 Guerra - 2.29 (only 39 innings) Anderson - 3.02 Garza - 4.16 Davies - 3.82 (Nelson - 6.10 - 6th starter/AAA) The 2017 bullpen - even without Jeffress/Smith - could look like this (with their 2016 full-season ERA): Thornburg - 2.15 Torres - 2.73 Cravy - 2.86 Barnes - 2.70 Marinez - 3.22 Suter - 3.32 Knebel - 4.83 (Blazek - 5.56) While it's likely (hopeful?) that if Guerra, Garza and Torres are pitching this well next July they will be traded (if not sooner), it's quite possible that great seasons from Nelson and Blazek won't be needed to have a good pitching staff. Also, save your criticisms re: advanced metrics or anything else for another thread. This is the positive post thread.
  9. LouisEly
    It was an exchange of international assets. There will be no merging in the U.S.; in fact, as a condition of the deal, A-B is prohibited from buying any more craft breweries in the U.S. The U.S. and international ownership rights to many beers are different (e.g., AB-InBev owns the Modelo group including Modelo and Corona globally, but had to divest the rights to those brands in the U.S. as a part of that acquisition). A-B is acquiring the rights to MillerCoors brands - and more importantly, distribution assets - in a number of South American, African, and possibly some Asian countries but I believe SAB Miller had to divest their assets in China. In many of those countries you can buy up distribution and shelf space and limit competition. Obviously not so in the U.S.
  10. LouisEly
    You see a ton of Braun jerseys because everyone bought one half a decade ago and it isn't often people drop $100 on a jersey. That's kind of the point. How many of those same people dropped $100 on a Burnitz/Sexson/Hart/Sheets/T-Plush/Fielder/Lucroy/etc.? If they had, they would wear them too... unless they liked Braun more. Most of those guys were on the same team half a decade ago so the fans had a choice of which jersey to buy. The fact that most people rarely buy jerseys - and the fact that they did pony up to buy one for Braun - kind of is the point. While I did see a Burnitz jersey yesterday at the Sports Column outside of Coors Field...
  11. LouisEly
    I think the Dodgers ownership group is made up of smart enough business people to recognize that this is a sunk cost. While the average individual consumer irrationally overvalues sunk costs (see Costco, and how members think they need to buy everything there to rationalize the membership fee even if buying in bulk is not a good value due to spoilage and carrying costs; also see Amazon Prime, etc.), I don't think the Dodgers ownership does. It's like holding on to a guy simply because he was a top 5 pick. If you want to use mental accounting (another behavioral economics irrationality principle), you could allocate the remaining portion of Alvarez's signing bonus on top of Braun's salary. The reality is that money spent on Alvarez was a transaction fee to acquire an asset in an open market. It has no value or relevance anymore to the asset it was paid to acquire.
  12. LouisEly
    [sarcasm]He was the secret organizational tanking strategy[/sarcasm]
  13. LouisEly
    I was sitting between 3b and the edge off the OF in the 14th row. Carter was barely around 3b when the OF got the ball. I knew he would be out as soon as I saw Sedar wave him around. Just a horrible call, because you would have had a guy on 3b with one out.
  14. LouisEly
    Not sure what you mean by twitch versus blink. My eyelids will occasionally twitch uncontrollably (but not blink), as will my triceps and knee, usually related to stress and lack of sleep.
  15. LouisEly
    Segura now with 200 hits on the season with 20 HRs and 30 SBs. I wonder how many players in history have had all three things in a single season. I also wonder if he played for a contender if people would be talking about him as a potential MVP. I think Segura has said that Milwaukee carried too much emotional baggage for him w/r/t his son. Lowering his hands or not, I don't think it was going to happen in MKE. I also wonder if he feels more comfortable in a city that has a much larger Spanish speaking population/influence. While he is Dominican and Phoenix is much more Mexican, it's much more similar than Dominican versus a heavily Northern European/English influence in Milwaukee.
  16. LouisEly
    .291/.371/.564 with 140 OPS+ and >10% BB rate in 124 PAs since his callup. [sarcasm]Yeah, he's not worth anything anymore.[/sarcasm]
  17. LouisEly
    I think it would be best to remove the AL and look at just the NL. Including the AL is going to overweight DH's and underweight pitchers. Only two of Garza's 19 starts were interleague. You also need to remove the Brewers because he never faces them. But the rest of the numbers don't seem to make sense given how such a high % of the teams he faced are in the top half of the league in runs scored. Unlikely that those run producers were on the bench to start games and then PH later when Garza was out of the game. Are the numbers weighted based on the number of times that he faced them, or just an average of who he has faced?
  18. LouisEly
    Ethier only has about 9.2 years of service time. He's like Braun in that he will become a 10/5 player some time next season, making it all the more imperative to move them this offseason.
  19. LouisEly
    Put this in the IGT from last night but not sure how many people would see it. I wonder if there is such a thing as "strength of schedule" for a pitcher. 10 of Garza's 19 starts have been against playoff contending teams with an additional four starts coming against the Pirates; while the Pirates are two games under .500, they are six games under .500 against the NL Central and have a winning record against the rest of the league. Looking at runs scored by team, only two of Garza's 19 starts have been against teams in the bottom half of their league (AL/NL) in runs scored - one vs. SFG, one vs. ATL. Cincy is in the middle at #8 in the NL, but Garza has only pitched two games against any of the bottom seven teams in the NL in runs scored (SFG, ATL), and SEA and TEX are both in the top five in the AL in runs scored. I'm sure there are advanced metrics out there somewhere to counter-argue this point, but perhaps those advanced metrics are the result of a skew towards pitching against better hitters than the average SP.
  20. LouisEly
    I wonder if there is such thing as "strength of schedule" for a pitcher. 10 of Garza's 19 starts have been against playoff contending teams with an additional four starts coming against the Pirates; while the Pirates are two games under .500, they are six games under .500 against the NL Central and have a winning record against the rest of the league. Looking at runs scored by team, only two of Garza's 19 starts have been against teams in the bottom half of their league (AL/NL) in runs scored - one vs. SFG, one vs. ATL. Cincy is in the middle at #8 in the NL, but Garza has only pitched two games against any of the bottom seven teams in the NL in runs scored (SFG, ATL), and SEA and TEX are both in the top five in the AL in runs scored.
  21. LouisEly
    Eerily like the Indians tragedy. I don't think that was as late at night, but it was also in Florida at night when dark and going full speed. Boating at night is dangerous. Hopefully others can learn from this and it ultimately saves more lives than it costed.
  22. LouisEly
    With the update to Firefox 49 I can no longer login to sbnation websites. I had saved sbnation as an exception for allowing cookies but it appears that got deleted. I have tried adding sbnation.com and have saved it, but still cannot login to those websites. I can login with IE, but not Firefox. Firefox is, and was before the update, set to allowing 3rd party cookies only from websites visited. Either that, or someone has banned me because I said that Hornibrook has "sub-par" arm strength.
  23. LouisEly
    That might mean losing to the Cubs though, and I want no part of that.
  24. LouisEly
    I think it is a matter of semantics. They way I read MrTPlush's comments it sounded like the opinion was that De Leon was never a part of the deal - either offered or asked for by either side. I find the evidence to strongly suggest the contrary - the circumstantial evidence to me strongly points to De Leon being asked for by the Brewers and the Dodgers strongly considering but balking at the last minute due to situations with their ML starters (Hill's blister, Anderson's setback/blister, McCarthy's setback, and Kazmir also went on the DL at the end of August, Ryu's setback, Kershaw not ready yet, etc.). As for why De Leon wasn't brought up before then, the Dodgers had Kershaw, Maeda, Kazmir, Stripling, Urias, Wood, Hill, McCarthy, Stewart, Anderson, and Ryu, so it's not like they have/had no depth. De Leon was drafted in 2013 so he didn't need to be on the 40-man, and with all of the injuries they had they needed as many 40-man spots as they could get.
  25. LouisEly
    I think it is the opposite - De Leon had to be in play. I'm not sure of the timing, but I'd be curious as to any reports of setbacks with the rehab of Kershaw/Ryu/McCarthy/Anderson and the timing of the deal. Rich Hill's blister issue came up at the end of August around the time of the supposed deal as did Brett Anderson being put back on the DL after two horrible outings and a blister issue. McCarthy threw two bullpen sessions on 8/24 and 8/29, but didn't get scheduled for a simulated game until 9/13. The fact that De Leon was called up and made three starts, the first on 9/4, could very well mean that it was the Dodgers that balked and pulled De Leon off the table thinking they may need De Leon for a playoff run.
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