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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    To answer your question, they are apparently trying to cheaply fill a void with quantity, not quality. Color me very unimpressed with what they gave up to get those guys. DeJesus is so bad against lefties that he never plays against them; of course, 70% of pitchers are right-handed, but his OPS this season against righties is a very mediocre .715; Parra is way better than that, and worth way more than what the Angels gave up for him.
  2. LouisEly
    There were thirteen - yes, 13 - teams present with scouts last Thursday at the game in Arizona. If you aren't going to be trading anybody, there won't be 13 teams present with scouts at games. Brian and Bill have said on numerous occasions that scouts have been asking them about players. That doesn't happen if you aren't going to be trading players.
  3. LouisEly
    Ennder, I think you, me, and logan82 should start our own splinter group, because we seem to be the most rational and least over-reactionary around here. The Royals biggest needs were 2B (Infante's .559 OPS) and corner OF (Gordon injured, Rios .625 OPS), and Zobrist can play all three of those positions. Parra can't play 2B - arguably the Royals biggest need now that they have their ace - so it's not comparable.
  4. LouisEly
    Toronto also has the DH, so they can give him more pseudo-off games where he isn't out on the turf for nine innings. They can rotate the DH between him, Encarnacion, and Bautista. Encarnacion and Bautista are also free agents after 2016 (very likely TOR will pick up their 2016 options). Very likely Tulo could be just a rental himself and flipped a year or so from now as well. Buehrle, Dickey, Bautista, and Encarnacion could all be gone after 2016, so it may be go-for-it time.
  5. LouisEly
    I've seen calculations that one WAR is worth about $7M, give or take $1M. Ramirez had a lifetime WAR (according to BR) of 7.3 with the Brewers; at $7M/WAR, that's a value of roughly $51M. Ramirez got a 4 yr/$50M deal; the Pirates are paying $3M of it. He didn't cost a draft pick. He was worth his contract. Lohse's career WAR with MIL is 4.6; while he's having an awful year, he was worth more than his contract the first two years of the deal. At $7M/WAR, that's a lifetime value of $32.2M; he signed for $33M. While he cost the team a draft pick, he is helping the Brewers get a better draft pick (likely top 3-5 and the bonus pool that comes with it) in 2016 instead of being a .500 team with a mid-first-round pick. Suppan absolutely was not worth it. But I hate to disappoint the Lohse and Ramirez haters; they have generally been worth their contracts.
  6. LouisEly
    Big difference between Tulo and Braun. Tulo is offensively the best SS in the game; Crawford is getting close (but hasn't proven it over multiple seasons) and Peralta is 33 and likely not long for being adequate defensively at SS. Braun is maybe the 3rd-7th best RF in the game (clearly behind Stanton and Harper, then debatable between Braun, Bruce, Martinez, CarGo, Bautista and Springer). And you can move guys to RF from 3B/SS; you don't move guys to SS later in their career. Tulo has extra value because it's a much more premium position with much more offensive scarcity. That, and not having the PED thing hanging over his head (but that's secondary to position premium).
  7. LouisEly
    Regardless, I find it extremely hard to believe that teams are scared of his contract when that's the going rate for closers. Highly likely it is rumors intentionally spread by teams looking to lower what they have to pay for K-Rod or increase the demand for their players (Papelbon, etc.).
  8. LouisEly
    Pompey is a top-50 prospect for a reason. He's only 22, so perhaps the Jays have confidence he will develop into a star player, and thus that devalues Gomez to them. How do you know that Hoffman was even available to the Brewers for Gomez? Let's remember that Hoffman is coming off of TJ, and while that surgery is more successful than in the past, it's not uncommon for those guys to have a second one a handful of years later. Daniel Hudson has pitched less than 90 innings over the last four seasons due to two TJ surgeries. Toronto still has Norris, Reid-Foley, and Perdomo available to trade, as well as Pompey if they think Gomez is an upgrade.
  9. LouisEly
    No, they are afraid of the PR backlash from the transaction.
  10. LouisEly
    Parra might be a Giant before the end of the game at the rate he's going. Top of the first rips a single, bottom of the first fires a strike to home plate.
  11. LouisEly
    They did say that 13 different teams were present last Thursday in Arizona, coinciding with Fiers last start, and they showed a Royals scout on TV. If 13 different teams have scouts in attendance, that means folks are getting moved and teams will be bidding up for players.
  12. LouisEly
    Bah, phooey! They don't care about his contract, they care about his history of domestic violence. He's at worst league-average pay for a closer. Excluding pre-arby guys: Melancon - $5.4M (and a free agent - we'll see what he gets) Storen - $5.7M and pre-arby Kimbrel - $24M over next 2 years, possibly $37M over next three years Perkins - $12.8M/$19.3M over next 2/3 years Casilla - $5M Street - $17M over next two years, possibly $27M over next three years Grilli - $4.25M (and 38 years old) Miller - $27M over next three years Soria - $7M Uehara - $9M this year and next (and 40 years old) Holland - $8.25M and pre-arby Robertson - $36M over next three years Clippard - $8.3M Papelbon - $13M, possibly $13M next season if he finishes 55 games Jansen - $7.4M and pre-arby Chapman - $8M and pre-arby Don't tell me teams are afraid of his contract when every other closer in the league is getting at least as much per year if not more. Pre-arby guys are getting $7/8M per year, so going closer rate is at least that much.
  13. LouisEly
    TOR really needs to justify that Dickey trade, so I wouldn't be surprised if they are in go-for-it mode. Sanchez just returned from the DL but has been put in the pen to strengthen it. Not sure why TOR doesn't go for a reliever. For some reason they kept Castro on the team out of spring training, so they've already started the clock on him. Just two options left now, and with him being a bit wild this year may want to trade him. He'd have to be ready to stay by 2018, but at 20 years old, 6'5", and throwing mid-upper 90's I'd take him. Castro plus Reid-Foley for Fiers? If that's too much I might take Matt Smoral, a 2012 first round comp pick of the Jays, and Angel Perdomo, a 6'6" 20 yr old LHP instead of Reid-Foley. Perdomo has looked really good in rookie ball this year with good command; Smoral has struggled with command so the Jays might be more willing to move him, but he has very good K rates. Both guys are a ways off so maybe DM can talk the Jays into throwing both of them in. All four of those guys (Castro, Reid-Foley, Smoral, Perdomo) for Fiers + K-Rod?
  14. LouisEly
    So long as Lucroy isn't asking for anything ridiculous (both length and annual salary, not signed past age 35), I think they can get by with extending Lucroy so long as they get good value for Parra, Gomez, K-Rod, Lind, Fiers, and Garza. I've said this before, but I hope the Brewers explore adding some of their C-level prospects in trades with those guys to get better prospects in return. That being said, you still listen to offers for Lucroy and pull the trigger if anyone is willing to overpay, but it's so hard to find good catching and good catching is so important to a young pitching staff (or any staff) that losing Lucroy could hurt the rebuild as much as it could help.
  15. LouisEly
    Broxton's BABIP is .361 and FIP is 3.63, so those certainly suggest there has been some bad luck and that he is due to improve. Brewers would likely have to pay all but about $1M to get anything decent back.
  16. LouisEly
    Technically there is no I-41, only US-41. The only interstates are I-43 and I-94 (894 bypass - all three number interstates are technically bypasses). What is confusing is that north of Milwaukee US-41 is like a freeway in that it is 3/2 lanes each way and 65 mph. Through Milwaukee US-41 is... not the best part of town. Missed that split once coming from the north.
  17. LouisEly
    Technically Fielder did not walk for "nothing" - the comp picks yielded one of our top prospects, Clint Coulter, and Mitch Haniger who was traded for Parra who will be traded for... Yes, the Brewers probably could have gotten more than the equivalent of Coulter and Haniger had they traded him prior to the 2011 season, but the Brewers certainly would not have been two wins from the World Series in 2011 (and the cash flow that came with it) and even if those prospects would have panned out probably would have left them around .500 this year. Better to have the third to fifth overall pick in 2016 than another .500 season and mid-first round pick.
  18. LouisEly
    In case folks didn't notice, yes it was that Ricky Romero, 2005 1st round pick of the Blue Jays, starting for the AZ Giants. Back in 2011 many thought he was going to be the next big thing; LHP with sub-3.00 ERA, four CGs, two shutouts, some even wondering if he should have been selected over Braun. But then he fell apart, and hasn't regained it since. Boy, Jeff Clement was the Darko Milicic of that draft.
  19. LouisEly
    While he hasn't generated a lot of strikeouts (yet), the reason he has been successful and has a low ERA is because of the late sinking action - he generates a lot of ground balls. It isn't luck that he has a good ERA, and with better defense behind him in the majors should only get better. Needs to work on his secondary offerings, but the fact that he only has ~100 innings on his arm is a big plus and suggests room to develop. Can't say the Brewers aren't targeting high upside guys with trades.
  20. LouisEly
    I think the point is to get rid of the wild card teams and go with the first/second half winners instead; if the same team wins both halves, then take the next team(s) with the best overall records. Taking the Brewers out of the discussion, what if a star player or two lands on the DL for a significant amount of time early in the season causing that team to miss the playoffs even though that team - when at full strength - is one of the best four teams in that league? Yes, that team played poor for a stretch, but it was because they weren't at full strength.
  21. LouisEly
    This is an interesting thought. They gave up the 18th overall pick in 2013, and given the number of teams that have 42-45 wins right now let's assume they would have had the 14th overall pick in 2016 w/o Lohse. Using bonus pool dollars as a proxy, that's roughly $5M. Assuming the Brewers get the 6th overall pick by using Lohse this year, that's roughly $4M. The difference will be about $1M, or roughly a mid-2nd round pick that it cost to sign him.
  22. LouisEly
    Isn't one league-average WAR worth about $7M? I'm not a Fangraphs guy, but BR gives him a cumulative WAR of about 4.5 over the last three seasons (5.8 over his first two, -1.2 for this season). If so, that's a value of about $32M, and the Brewers signed him for $33M. They got about what they paid for. Remember, he was pretty good the last two seasons.
  23. LouisEly
    Don't look now, but Ramirez is right in the middle of the pack of qualified 3B in OPS. Tied with Brett Lawrie. Better than what DET, NYY, PIT, LAA, and HOU have going on at 3B. Makes a lot of sense for PIT, as Harrison will be back eventually so they don't need a long-term solution, and DET, as he can help mentor/coach Castellanos for a few months and then hand it back over to Castellanos in 2016. NYY too as money is no object, and Headley has been worse as a RHB than a LHB. Just noticed that NYY have five LHH starters and three switch hitters, all of whom are worse vs. LHP than RHP. If teams want to beat them, they will need LH relievers (Cotts) or a RH reliever with a good changeup (K-Rod).
  24. LouisEly
    Just look at the contenders - most of them have SS with an OPS south of .625. Don't think that MIN (Santana), LAD (Rollins), CHC (Castro), WSH (Desmond), BAL (Hardy), PIT (Mercer), NYY (Gregorius), TB (Cabrera), or NYM (Flores - better OPS, but much worse OBP and defense) would love to have Segura right now.
  25. LouisEly
    They give you a seven day grace period to pay them online at illinoistollway.com. No need to pull over to pay the tolls, just hop on-line within seven days, look up your license plate number, and pay it.
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