LouisEly

Kolten Wong sure has cooled off after a hot start (knocks on wood). Not quite the player people said he was two months ago. Lucroy has to get that, not Cravy.

When a 30-year-old actor is hired to play a 70-year-old Col. Sanders in commercials.

No, it's not a red herring, it's a comp. If you think Gallardo is going to get as much or slightly more than the Brewers gave Garza, then the cost to acquire Gallardo this off-season will be at least 4/$55M (5/$63M if it vests). The cost to acquire Garza this off-season will be 2/$30M (or 3/$38M if it vests). So if teams aren't willing to take on Garza for at most 3/$38M because of his contract, then why would a team sign a similar player in Gallardo for 5/$63M (or more)? Why take the risk of the extra two years and $25M plus potentially give up their first round pick? Yes, Garza had a bad first half, because he was not 100% and tried to pitch through it. He went on the DL, got healthy, and now has been pitching like his career norm. And if the Brewers had to "eat" $4M to trade him, how are you valuing the prospects in the deal? Based on the Braves eating $10M in Arroyo (who can't pitch at all) to take on Toussaint, I'd say the $4M was to get an additional prospect or upgrade to a better prospect; I'd say Diplan is comparable to Toussaint, plus the Brewers got a top 100 prospect and potential closer on top of that.

1) Gallardo was/is set to become a free agent. Because he is in the last year of the deal he is not eligible for a qualifying offer and thus can leave as a free agent and get nothing in return. That represents greater risk for a team, and greater risk needs to be offset with greater reward. B) How much do you think Gallardo will sign for as a free agent this off-season? Give us a number, please. You like to say "Player X isn't worth this much" or "there are much better players than Player Y" but you fail to name them. If you're that confident in your assessments, please back them up with names and numbers. Hold yourself accountable. 3) What in the world do you mean by "we couldn't trade Gallardo"? Gallardo wasn't given away - he netted Sardinas (a top 100 prospect in the majors by age 21), Knebel (hard-throwing bullpen arm in the majors 1.5 years after being drafted), and Marcos Diplan (high upside 18-year-old doing quite well in high Rookie ball). How does that constitute "not being able to trade" someone? He is set to become a free agent, and that's what he netted in return.

[sarcasm]No one would pay 3/$39M for that.[/sarcasm]

[sarcasm]Yep, just get rid of Garza. No one will claim him, and if anyone does, just give him away.[/sarcasm]

Speaking of news, this morning on CBS, "What airlines won't tell you about delayed flights". Like there's some big conspiracy. Then you watch the segment, and they basically say they try to inconvenience the least amount of people on the flight and waiting for that plane, so smaller regional jets get delayed before larger national/international flights. Nothing like the media framing a conspiracy that doesn't exist.

Agreed with dealing Lucroy in the off-season, if that's the direction they choose to go with him. In the off-season, if a team is really interested in acquiring Lucroy they will move pieces to acquire the pieces they need to acquire him. Much easier to do that in the off-season than at the deadline. Also, it's easier to do a 3-team deal in the off-season. While a direct deal with SF for Susac is very unlikely (or with NYY), bringing in a 3rd team that Lucroy is sent to, with the 3rd team sending pieces to MIL and SF/NYY, and SF/NYY sending a catcher to MIL, is much more likely. And when in doubt, trade Lucroy for young pitching, then trade pitching for the pieces you need. I would think that some combination of Davies, Cravy, Thornburg, Wagner, Lopez, Johnson, Houser, Wang, Ortega, or Sneed should be able to bring back a catching prospect.

Some people were also saying they should just release A-Ram, the Brewers would be lucky to just get any salary relief, etc., and we saw how that turned out.

^This. Wasn't expecting to go, got caught off-guard, wasn't able to do his normal warm-up and prep routine, not surprised he didn't do well. If the game goes extra innings you start to get mentally ready, but you don't expect to get called into action in the third inning the day before you are scheduled to start.

Hiram Burgos is doing his best to say, "Don't leave me out of the picture!" 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 9 K. Since going to AAA, 3.10 ERA (in Colorado Springs), 49.1 IP, 37 H, 40 K, only 2 HRs. Walks a little high, but finding his groove again. Austin Ross... not so much. He and Guilmet seeing who can have the worse night.

I don't think people realize how reasonable/average Garza's contract is for someone with his track record. Looking at recent deals given out, only counting guaranteed money (excludes buyout year salaries, includes buyout $): CIN gave 29-year-old Homer Bailey 4/$86M (his career FIP, WHIP, H/9, K/9 are eerily similar to Garza) COL is paying 34-year-old Jorge de la Rosa $25M over this year and next SDP gave 33-year-old James Shields 3/$65M SFG game 38-year-old Tim Hudson 2/$23M and 34-year-old Jake Peavy 2/$24M last year PIT gave 31-year-old Francisco Liriano (look at his 2011 & 2012) 3/$39M TEX is giving 34-year-old C.J. Wilson $38M over this year and next (on top of $16M last year) DET gave 30-year-old Anibal Sanchez 4/$71M last year CHW is giving 30-year-old John Danks $31.5M over this year and next MIN gave 32-year-old Ervin Santana 4/$55M, 29-year-old Phil Hughes 5/$58M, and last year gave 31-year-old Ricky Nolasco 4/$49M KCR gave 30-year-old Edinson Volquez (look at his 2011-2013) 2/$20M TOR is giving 39-year-old R.A. Dickey $25M over last year and this year BAL last year gave 30-year-old Ubaldo Jimenez 4/$50M Notice how no contracts given out by NYY, LAD, or BOS (Porcello) are mentioned. This is why I say, what pitcher who is similar to Garza in age and doesn't come with significant injury history/risk could you get for 2/$30M (or 3/$38M)? What will Gallardo and Samardzija get in free agency? Yes, Garza is having a bad year; Volquez and Liriano had multiple bad years. If you want to pay anything near what Garza is owed you have to go after guys with significant injury risk (Kazmir), age risk (Hudson, Peavy), or past poor performance risk (Volquez, Liriano), and I don't think Kazmir will fall into the "paid less than Garza" category once he hits free agency this winter.

Small problem - both of those guys are relievers. Cothem was an awful starter - worse numbers at AAA last year than Garza's abnormal 2015 - and hasn't started a game this year. Goody has started all of four games in his minor league career. Seriously, this is way more ridiculous than anything I suggested.

I appreciate the compliment, but apparently you didn't read the reasoning of why the Yankees would do that. As I mentioned, even if he "blows", he's a heckuva lot better than what they have going on at 2B right now, his numbers would almost certainly increase significantly going to Yankee stadium from Safeco, and he's a lot better value for the same salary than Sabathia is. If the Yanks are going to pay $25M to someone, Cano is a lot better value than Sabathia. And it's the Yankees. They care about winning, not payroll.

If the plan is to trade him, given his very reasonable contract a lot more than just contending teams will want in on him, so it would be better to shop him in the offseason than at the deadline. Fewer buyers at the deadline, harder to get 3-team deals done.

C.J. Wilson was a reliever for several years before moving into the rotation. Can't see why they don't try it with Blazek and Smith. The thing with Smith is, what is his 3rd pitch and how good is it? I only see him throwing FB and slider. Blazek has three pitches (FB, curve, slider, maybe change) so I think he could do it before Smith. Young decent team-controlled starting pitching is the most valuable commodity there is, so try to get as many folks qualified for that label as possible and trade excess.

Name them.

I believe the same was said about Jungmann. Colorado Springs stats aren't the best way to evaluate pitchers.

Rip up his current deal, give him 6/$82M so that he's signed only through age 35, front-load the deal so that in case he regresses or can't catch full-time in the latter years they aren't stuck with an albatross of a contract. He's earned far more than he's been paid the last few years so they owe him something. That's not too much that he can't still be traded. 2016 - $17M, 2017 - $15M, 2018 - $15M, 2019 - $13M, 2020 - $12M, 2021 - $10M. I believe league rules are that you cannot reduce a player's salary by more than 20% from one year to the next, so that should fit within the rules. Because it's front-loaded, that's more net present value to Lucroy than a backloaded deal. Molina's getting ~$14M/year so it's in line with market rate.

... Jack Z. So crazy it just might work. SEA sends Cano to NYY NYY sends Sabathia and Drew to SEA MIL sends Lohse and Burgos to NYY SEA sends B-level prospect to NYY, C-level prospect to MIL Why SEA makes this deal - desperate to get out of the $192M owed to Cano, if Sabathia has a shoulder injury they can buy out his 2017 for $5M Why NYY makes this deal - significantly upgrade 2B over Drew, Cano's numbers will get much better going from Safeco to the short right field porch in Yankee Stadium, Cano and Sabathia's salaries are a wash but they get much better production for that salary in Cano, Sabathia has been bad for two years and Lohse may be a wash, Lohse's road numbers are much better (4.55 ERA, .721 OPS-A, almost exactly same number of PAs at home and road) and going to a league where hitters are much less familiar with him may improve his numbers, if Lohse doesn't work out they get some depth and ML starter experience in Burgos who is pitching well at Colorado Springs, you only need four starters at most in the playoffs so they just need a fifth to get them through the season, NYY has a lot of salary coming off the books the next two years and is only on the hook for a guaranteed $92M after 2017 so they can take on Cano's salary Why MIL makes the deal - get something for Lohse I highly doubt Garza makes it to NYY in waivers, otherwise I'd say Garza to NYY and both of the prospects to MIL. That could easily happen in the offseason if this doesn't happen in August.

C.J. Wilson is done for the year and A.J. Burnett to the DL with elbow issues. I don't want to see any career-ending injuries, but if a few more starters go on the DL (hopefully with just pulled hammies or intercostal strains) maybe, just maybe, there will be a market for Lohse. I expect Cotts to get moved, but I doubt Lind and Garza make it through waivers. Other than that, maybe Herrera because of the value we've seen with positional flexibility, if he can get hot with some regular playing time.

Rizzo should never have come up with two guys on base. In the first inning when Rizzo hit the grounder and Gennett was playing into the OF grass, his only play would have been at 2B. But for some reason Segura didn't go to 2B; he just stood there. That cost an out which would have ended that inning. Different batters in subsequent innings, and Garza isn't pitching to Rizzo in that inning. Speaking of Segura, the next priority in the offseason is to start moving guys with poor plate discipline, and that's Segura and Gennett. Maybe not Gennett as they need some LH balance, but since he can only play 2B his only value is that he's young, cheap, and under team control for a while. Might be better to move him while he still has that value.

The Brewers know that they have time to shop Garza, so there is no urgency. Moving other guys was a priority, and you can only make so many deals within a couple of days while still maintaining quality negotiation tactics. Trade negotiations aren't a 2-minute phone call. Garza's value is lower because of the way he's been pitching this season, but it isn't low. The Brewers know that there is a good chance they can get more for him if they wait. So why not wait? Here's the career lines of two starting pitchers: Pitcher A: 104 ERA+, 3.99 FIP, 1.292 WHIP, 8.7 H/9, 7.4 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9 Pitcher B: 94 ERA+, 4.09 FIP, 1.367 WHIP, 10.1 H/9, 5.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9 Ignoring that one has pitched primarily in hitters parks and the other in pitchers parks, which one would you give a big contract to? Thank you MNBrew for highlighting the main point. What free agent starting pitcher that is a) the same age or younger than Garza, and b) not coming off of a major injury/having a history of arm trouble will sign for less than 2/$30M? Kazmir missed two years with arm trouble (and he looked washed up in 2010, worse than Garza this year), which is why he didn't get a big, long contract. But how much do you think he'll sign for this offseason?

I'd take Schwarber, Bryant, and Russell because they play premium positions where it is harder to find those bats. While Fielder, Braun, and Weeks had better hitting potential, we knew that a) they were all below-average defensively at their positions, and/or b) were likely to not stick at their positions. The key is relative value, not absolute value. It's about value relative to others at that position; that is the fundamental principle behind WAR. While WAR has it's warts and actual values debatable, the principle is to compare to replacement level at that particular position. I think that the Cubs trio has a greater relative value/differential at those positions that the Brewers trio had at their positions.

The Red Sox gave Porcello $21M/year, and he's never been anything special. No decent free agent starting pitcher can be signed for anything near the 2 years, $30M that Garza has left; they'll cost way more than that, or come with significant injury history/risk. Garza has a very successful track record - there will be no shortage of teams willing to take a chance that he will revert to career norms. Besides, why not wait to see if he'll rebound and then trade him at the deadline next year? This year is definitely the career outlier, and he's only 31, not 36 like Lohse.