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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    52 of 74 pitches for strikes, 6:1 GO:FO.
  2. LouisEly
    Can someone please tell me what's wrong with Adam LaRoche? Career .340 OBP & .815 OPS (roughly what he's averaged since the beginning of 2012) and a plus defender at 1B. With Gio Gonzalez out indefinitely with shoulder problems and only one game out of first place, maybe WSN is in the market for pitching? WSN trades LaRoche, moves Zimmerman to 1B, needs a 2B... LaRoche to MIL for Estrada & Weeks?
  3. LouisEly
    11th round: Brandon Woodruff, MSU (2014) 6.75 ERA, 37.1 IP, 47 H, 25 BB, 29 K (did not give up a HR though to 157 batters) 15th round: Caleb Smith, Rice (2014) 8.16 ERA, 14 IP, 15 BB, 20 K (three schools in three years - Auburn, CC, Rice) Could be some long innings in Helena and Maryvale this year.
  4. LouisEly
    If you watched the draft special on FSN last year you know that the Brewers don't draft guys in the early rounds they don't think they can sign. They specifically said, "We have to sign our guys."
  5. LouisEly
    Yea, if it is true that Seid had Trout highest on his draft board, only to see him go one pick before and then end up taking Arnett, how do you ever get that out of your head? I remember reading a book by Ron Wolf. I forget the exact year, but he said that he had Ray Lewis already written on their draft card with the 27th pick and even were on the phone with him as Baltimore's time was running down to pick, only to hear Lewis say at the last second that he had another call. Baltimore stings Wolf by take Lewis and he said something to the effect that this was the first and only time as Packers GM that he seriously got rattled. He ends up picking John Michaels who was a bust and Lewis had a HOF career. There is a big difference between the baseball draft and the football draft, and it is that the baseball draft only allows one minute between picks whereas the football draft allows at least five minutes. Now that the draft is televised they give five minutes between picks in the first round, but IIRC that wasn't the case in 2009 - I'm pretty sure it was still one minute then. Think about that; if the player that is #1 on your board goes right before you, or if the top guys on your board go in the 3-4 picks before you, you only have one minute to decide who to take. I wonder how much this contributes to the randomness of the baseball draft; teams have one minute to decide who to pick based on talent, signability, and BPA of the thousands of HS, college, and juco players available.
  6. LouisEly
    The Brewers have had a bad few years, but I think we overestimate other teams' success too. For example, the Braves got Heyward at #12 in 2007 and Mike Minor at #7 in 2009, but before that their only decent first round picks since 2001 have been Saltalamacchia (#36, 2003) and Jeff Francoeur (#23, 2002). And obviously the latter two are not a high bar. This. Prior to 2009 the Cardinals had not had much success in the draft in the first round. Brett Wallace at #13? Pete Kozma at #18? And they whiffed on all three of their first round picks in 2010 (Jenkins was showing some promise but has had two shoulder injuries and had shoulder surgery late last season; has yet to pitch in 2014). Yes, the Cardinals had a great draft in 2009. And they would also trade 2010 drafts with the Brewers in a heartbeat.
  7. LouisEly
    Because Harrison has a scholarship offer in another sport (football) the bonus pool rules don't apply to that pick. I don't remember exactly what it is, but I know the rules are different if the player has a scholarship offer for another sport.
  8. LouisEly
    The 1B from Kentucky is still on the board...
  9. LouisEly
    Wasn't expecting much from Bradley after being sick and not pitching for over a week and a half. Viramontes must have been sick as well because tonight is the first time he's pitched since 5/17. If it's the same bug I had, it had me down for a week.
  10. LouisEly
    Here's who I got: #12: Sean Newcomb, LHP, or Kyle Schwarber, C/OF #41: Matt Imhoff, LHP, or Cody Reed, LHP 2nd: Keith Weisenberg, RHP, or Tiquan Forbes, SS/3B 3rd: Evan Skoug, C, or Eric Skoglund, LHP
  11. LouisEly
    Agreed. I think there is a good chance that Estrada isn't tendered this off-season. He's been a nice little piece to our staff, but I think we have better options and enough depth that he's just not really worth 5-6 million. This is kind of what gets me. No one is saying Estrada is a #1 or #2. But he has value, especially at only that estimated $5-6M. Among NL pitchers with at least 40 IP this year he is 45th in ERA, 21st in WHIP, 27th in QS%, 22nd in K/9. The low WHIP and high K/9 balance out the tendency to give up HRs, thus his ERA is accurate regarding his ability and he's right on the border of a #3/#4 starter. He was a 1.6 WAR pitcher last season only pitching ~130 innings with about the same numbers. At 180 innings, he's a 2.2 WAR player. So what is 1 WAR worth in terms of salary? I seem to recall it being more than $5M, so he's worth more than $5M. If $5M is what he gets in arby, then he's a bargain and is worth something to someone. This is why I can't get behind letting him walk for nothing. If the depth is there, then get the $5/6M in arby and then trade him.
  12. LouisEly
    I can't figure out how SF is doing so well. Their extremely marginal hitters have to come down to earth at some point. They have more homers than us... It's been bloody hot there this spring - desert-like, no typical fog/humidity to deaden fly balls, kind of like playing in Stockton in the Cal league. They've also played a bunch of games at Colorado and Arizona, the teams with the two worst ERAs (and likely pitching staffs) in the NL. Those parks can be pretty HR friendly too. Morse was a good free agent signing for $6M...
  13. LouisEly
    It's Sally! I can see a case for not letting Wang finish. He put up a great inning (even if it was the Cubs), giving up just an opposite-field bloop double that was a foot from being foul. Let him go out with some confidence and build on that. If it has been a while since Thorny had pitched and he needed to work on something, fine. Duke got up because Thorny was approaching 30 pitches that inning. Letting him go much further than that would not be a good thing.
  14. LouisEly
    Who's going to give up a pick or bonus pool and keep him on the roster? That's the problem with any potential trade. First you have to find a team that likes him enough to give that much up and they have to be willing to keep him in the majors. We're better off just keeping him because chances are your offers aren't happening. People around here say that if Wang were put on waivers that multiple teams would put in a claim, so apparently there are several teams that would keep him on their roster. If they are willing to claim him and keep him on their roster then they are willing to give up something for him. Maybe it's a 1st round competitive balance pick, maybe it's a 2nd round competitive balance pick, maybe it's $1.2M international bonus pool slot, maybe it's a $200K bonus pool slot. But if they will claim him they will likely give up something for him.
  15. LouisEly
    Brad Mills... whoa. Did he learn a new pitch in the offseason?
  16. LouisEly
    I think the best scenario would be to trade him for a competitive balance pick or international bonus pool slot. That, or an upper-level 3B prospect.
  17. LouisEly
    Anyone have flashbacks of Segura's play yesterday on that grounder when he turned slightly toward the outfield?
  18. LouisEly
    As long as he keeps giving up solo HRs and keeps his ERA around 4.00 or less, I don't care. 12 of his 16 HRs have been solo, the other four have been 2-R HRs; zero 3-R HRs or Grand Slams. Solo HRs don't hurt you; they are a lot more efficient than giving up a walk and two hits and allow you to prevent big innings from getting tired (see: Garza, Matt - 5/27/14). It wouldn't necessarily hurt his trade value if he were going to a team with a big ballpark (Miami, Seattle, LA, San Diego, etc.) where it is tough to hit HRs. Marco is a 6-inning, 90-pitch pitcher. He gets into trouble once he gets past 90 pitches. His ERA this year in the 7th inning is 16.20 and in the 8th inning is 27.00. I'm much more concerned about Garza, and would rather trade him than Estrada.
  19. LouisEly
    Machado botches two of them in a game? Wow.
  20. LouisEly
    That pitch to Lucroy was a ball to Garza...
  21. LouisEly
    1) Garza's spot is/was due up in the bottom of the 7th 2) The Brewers only have 12 pitchers on the roster right now including Wang, so in reality they only have six reliable guys in the bullpen now. This is not on RR. This is on Segura as Garza should have been out of the inning. Segura didn't need to hot-dog it; even if he only got the lead out at 2nd they would have had two out and a runner at 1st. Would've gotten out of the inning with a 12-pitch 7th.
  22. LouisEly
    Gennett down to .690 OPS, Weeks heating back up and (small sample alert) this season balanced so far vs. RHP and LHP in terms of OPS. With Herrera & Falu on the club and both switch hitters, is it time to send Gennett back down? I certainly want more LH balance in the lineup, but Weeks would need to play in all 110 remaining games and average 4.76 PA/game in order to hit 600 PAs and guarantee his 2015 contract, so I think we are past that point in the season. As for splits, Gennett is .740 OPS vs. RHP this year but Weeks 2011-2013 splits vs. RHP is .736 so that's pretty much a wash. This could solve some of the roster issues. Swap Gennett for Gindl, tell Gennett that the job is his to lose next year and we'll see you in September if not sooner. Unless there is a reason to keep a 2B over an OF.
  23. LouisEly
    Lots of young players press, thinking they have to hit right away to stay in the lineup and not get sent back down. I think Davis is feeling more comfortable and more assured that the job is his, making him feel more comfortable at the plate. No one is saying Davis is a .900 OPS player, but he had a ~.375 OBP in AA & AAA combined, so he could realistically be a .335 OBP + .465 SLG = .800 OPS player.
  24. LouisEly
    What HiandTight is saying is that he believes the player that will be drafted at #4 this year is just as good/has just as much talent as the player that will be drafted at #2, thus the reason for trading down to #4. He is also saying that if he felt that the player that will be drafted at #4 wasn't as good as the player that will be drafted at #2 he would not want to trade down. You're right, usually the chances of hitting at #2 are better than #4, but it wasn't the case in 2003, 2005, and 2008 (and sort-of 2009, but #2 was definitely better in 2004, 2006, and 2007).
  25. LouisEly
    When you're up by 7 runs you throw strikes and make them hit their way back into the game - you don't dink around trying to hit the corners and walk guys on base. Despite the HRs, still up by four runs. As this game has shown, solo HRs don't hurt you. It's when you walk guys and give up 2/3-run HRs that hurt you.
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