LouisEly

I know he is only 20, but it is unlikely that he will hit well enough to play any other position.

Certainly scouting is much more difficult for high schoolers than college players - it is harder to project physical development. There is an injury risk, but for the most part the Brewers seem to be very cognizant of arm stress and gradual workload increases and few of those listed had significant injuries. But there is also a lot more than physical talent that goes into succeeding in baseball, particularly in the minors. One major advantage college players have is the mental maturity they develop. With high school players, this may be the first time they have ever been away from home. That emotional effect can impact your performance. College players have already learned how to, for the most part, live on their own. They are used to travel and being away from family/friends. They have probably figured out for the most part how to live on a budget, do laundry, basic cooking, and other life skills. They are used to dealing with distractions (girls, partying, etc.) and how to balance those with knowing they need to perform (on the field & in the classroom). These are things that some if not most high schoolers don't know how to deal with and can have an impact on development. Your decision-making skills are definitely more developed after going to college. The Brewers need not look any further than Wilhelmson, Jeffress, and others to see how talent can be wasted by bad decisions. And players with those issues you don't want in your organization for fear that those habits will permeate to other players. I think the lesson here is that guys like Gallardo, Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson, Mat Latos, and other non-first-round HS pitchers are the exception, not the rule. The oddest of those to me is Brandon Parillo. Don't know what happened there, but when he was 19 he gave up 23 hits in 39 innings and struck out 41. You don't give up on a 20-year-old after 25 not-so-good low-A ball innings unless there was something else going on. I highly doubt his departure was due to on-the-field performance.

My response would have been: 1) Are these representative of his ages 21-27 seasons? B) Are these representative of full seasons (>450 PA)? The answer to your question is "yes" (just as it would be for Brady Anderson). I believe your response to my questions is "no".

What the heck - LD%, GB%, FB%?!? How about just looking at his career SLG%? .391, .391, .341, .416, .354... then .476, .510. Yes, you would expect it to rise as he ages from 21 to 27, but that much of a spike over the last two years is rather suspicious.

[sarcasm]Did they name him Scooter?[/sarcasm]

Fautino de los Santos is a lock - he has no options left so they will want to see what they have with him. Peralta is a lock too - he only has ~125 innings on the year, and they will need piggyback starters for Fiers and possibly Rogers to limit their innings. Thornburg only has a little over 100 innings this year as well, and since he pitched 135 last year I think they will want to get him at least up to that mark. Having Peralta piggyback with Fiers and Thornburg piggyback with Rogers would be pretty sweet too - that would generate fan interest in a down year. "In a down season, I doubt we'll see too many call-ups." Maybe for position players, but given the need to monitor/limit innings for Fiers & Rogers, likely limiting pitch counts for Marcum as he eases his way back in, and the need to replace almost the entire bullpen for next year I think they will call up at least 4-5 pitchers to see what they have. I can easily see them releasing K-Rod prior to the trade deadline if teams have expressed zero trade interest (very likely) with the cover of "giving him a chance to sign with a contender" to make room on the 40 for a guy like Stetter, Meadows, or Hand. Peralta, de los Santos, Thornburg, and Stetter for pitchers, and Schafer and Bianchi for position players.

Matt Miller is having a decent season, but if the Brewers would have picked Sean Nolin instead of Miller in the 5th round they would have had a very good draft despite not signing Dylan Covey. I say this because Nolin fits their mold - 6'5", 235. A draft of Jimmy Nelson, Tyler Thornburg, Hunter Morris, and Nolin would have been excellent.

Have you ever heard RRR glow about Gamel's ability at 1B anywhere near what he has said about Hart at 1B? IIRC, RRR called Hart a "game changer" at 1B, and didn't Melvin or RRR say that Hart is the leader for the 1B job next year? Isn't that what started this whole Gamel debate? So it isn't me that is saying it... it is RRR and Melvin. And counting minor league games, Hart has played more games at 1B in his career than Gamel. Roughly 100 more by my count, so he has more experience there as well.

Teams are allowed two players below AA from what I read Below AA - Alan Williams, Garfield AA & above - Nelson, Bucci, Kh. Davis, Ke. Davis, and either Thornburg (if he needs more innings) or Jesus Sanchez Dark horses - Brian Garman, Shawn Zarraga

1) The Brewers have $36M coming off the books next year in Greinke, Izturis, Loe, K-Rod, Veras, and (likely) Wolf. If you add Marcum and Morgan to that it makes $46M. They have $11.5M in raises coming, and no one eligible for arby is having anywhere remotely close to a good season and deserving of a significant raise. Payroll is not going to be an issue next year, so we can take that out of the argument for trading Hart. B) While Hart's offensive value decreases at 1B, his defensive value increases at 1B. Remember, he was moved off of 1B because of Fielder. He has shown to be a very good defensive 1B, better than Gamel. Maybe Gamel can learn RF in one spring training... coming off of knee surgery, I'm not sure that's possible. Is he eligible for the AFL, and if so, will he be healthy enough to start learning RF in the AFL? 3) Personally I like the idea of keeping him and using a platoon: Vs. RHP: Gamel - 1B, Hart - RF, Aoki - CF Vs. LHP: Hart - 1B, Aoki - RF, Gomez - CF This gives the Brewers some flexibility to see if resigning Hart is feasible/desirable, or if trading him is the way to go. It gives Gamel time to build his trade value over the course of a season in case Hart is the future at 1B, as his value now is low. Worst case scenario Gamel is a better bench bat than they've had in a while. 4) Ishikawa is an interesting comparison to Gamel, as Ishikawa was never given more than 363 PAs in a season to prove himself (and that was the only season he was given more than 200 PAs). But Ishikawa was never an elite prospect; he had two good offensive seasons, but both were in very hitter friendly leagues (PCL - in a small sample, and Cal leagues).

I was just going to say the same thing about Heckathorn. I know that 1) Matt Miller is not young for low A, B) college players should do well at low A, and 3) he doesn't strike a lot of guys out. That being said, he's having a good season and if he can continue to improve and take advantage of his 6'6" frame he might have a chance to develop into a #4/5 starter. Always nice to be able to develop those instead of having to sign those as FAs. Check out Stosh Wawrzasek's picture on MiLB.com - the Stosh is indeed sporting the 'stache. 6'0" and 250lbs... oof.

The next bandwagon is Jacob Barnes.

gregmag, like I said Greinke improved compared to 2010. But not compared to 2009, thus my point about 2010 being the outlier. And maybe Wolf got lucky last year and unlucky this year, but despite what xFIP says I have a hard time believing he is the same pitcher this year as last year. You can use xFIP, but when I look at WHIP, H/9, HR/9, and BB/9 he is significantly worse.

"Louis Ely's argument about the starting rotation seems to me willfully biased and agenda-driven." Name one pitcher who improved from 2010 to 2011 or 2011 to 2012. Greinke has shown improvement compared to 2010 but not compared to 2009 - was 2010 the outlier? Other than Marco Estrada, who is questionable because he pitched a very small sample of innings in the majors in 2010, I can't find one. That is what I am basing it off of, not some agenda.

1) No, his 2011 performance was pretty consistent with his 2008-2010 averages. B) The only season he ever had that was close to 2012 was 2006 when he was injured and only pitched 56 innings. No "regression" - age, or statisticaly anomaly - would have projected anywhere near this performance.

Then how come some teams seem to consistently make pitchers who struggled in other organizations better (Cardinals, White Sox, Blue Jays, Giants) and develop their own pitching? It's the job of the pitching coach to watch pitchers mechanics and make adjustments; if he's not helping them do that then he needs to be held accountable. Greinke was already a great pitcher before coming here; Marcum was already good as well. Fiers put up great numbers in the minors, so the skills were already there. Estrada is basically the same - BB/9 is down and K/9 is up, but HR/9 and ERA is up as well. Gallardo has regressed. Wolf has significantly regressed. So I find it hard to give him credit for the starters when they haven't improved. The Brewers starting pitching improved because of talent brought in (Greinke, Marcum, Fiers), not because the guys already here got better. I've been thinking about pitching coaches and impact for a while, specifically Manny Parra. He seemed to really respond to Rick Peterson, especially in his bullpen role, but now has regressed under Kranitz. Point being, the starters have either stayed the same or regressed, and the bullpen has significantly regressed. So I don't see any reason to give Kranitz any credit for anything.

"If you can't trade Wolf you might as well just cut him August 1st. Guys like Peralta or Thornburg need a shot starting the last month or two" Slightly off topic, but Wolf is a guy with his salary and production who could easily get through waivers in August. Looking at Wolf's 2009-2011 splits, his best month is September and August is his 3rd best month. Historically he has been better in the 2nd half. A few more starts like his last two and someone might be willing to part with a prospect in August for him.

Like others have said, coming back from wrist surgery it likely would take anyone a little while to find their groove. But in his last three starts covering 19 innings he has given up 9 hits, walked 5, and struck out 20. Anyone can do that for a game or two, but as they say, once is an accident, twice is luck, three times is a trend. Got nothing to lose at this point. Season is lost, he has no options left, let's see if the last three starts are really a trend and if it means one less pitcher the Brewers have to find in the offseason, starter or bullpen.

One of his games was in a very hitter-friendly park out west where the wind was blowing out at 25mph. Gave up four hits, but three of them were HRs. That was half of the HRs he gave up all season in AAA.

I like the idea of trying to move Gamel to RF, but I don't know that he can do that at the major league level in one spring training coming back from knee surgery. I think they have a pretty good platoon going right now: Against LHP: 1B - Hart, RF - Aoki, CF - Gomez Against RHP: 1B - Gamel, RF - Hart, CF - Aoki Given that 70% of pitchers are RH, Gamel will get the majority of ABs at 1B with Hart as his platoon partner, and gives Hart a little rest not having to run around in RF every game.

/\ I know somebody beat me to that reference, but I HAD to make that my 2000th post...

Lou Palsmo

"Regardless the rotation for 2013 and 2014 should be the primary concern, then worry about the bullpen." I believe that was the thought for this year too, and look how that turned out.

That 2009 draft makes me want to puke. Trout gets taken the pick before the Brewers in the first round, and then between that pick and when the Reds draft Billy Hamilton at #57 the Brewers select Eric Arnett, Kentrail Davis, and Kyle Heckathorn. And Tyler Skaggs gets taken the pick after Kentrail Davis. The Brewers don't make the playoffs, pick ahead of Anaheim, and end up with Trout, Skaggs, and Hamilton. What could have been...

Season is lost, so time to find out if Jim Henderson is, and Mitch Stetter is back to being, a major league pitcher. I'd include Rogers too, but he has been in such a groove lately as a starter I want him to try to ride that wave a little longer and can wait. Hell, bring up Wooten while you're at it and see if he can get major leaguers out. And getting dumped from the 40-man seems to have lit a fire under Kintzler's behind, maybe he can be something again. People laughed at the guy who suggested Burgos might be called up this year, but right now I'm pretty open to that idea.