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Everything posted by LouisEly
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Should the Brewers trade John Axford?
LouisEly replied to viaarete's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Trevor Hoffman didn't fall apart until he was 42. Lee Smith didn't fall apart until he was 37. Mariano Rivera is still going strong at 40. Billy Wagner is still throwing gas at 38. Relievers aren't like starters - they usually last longer. -
Should the Brewers trade John Axford?
LouisEly replied to viaarete's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I never bought into the trade when the value is high philosophy. If we did that the Brewers roster would be full of under achievers, unproven rookies or guys who will never be good enough for the big stage every season. The only time I think we should trade our guys is when we have a replacement for the guy or when he is about to leave anyway. Amen, bingo, w00t, booyah, hallelujah. If you are going to go to the playoffs and win a championship you have to have a few star players and overachievers on your team. The teams that make good trades are the ones who trade players under these two scenarios - you have a replacement guy who is ready who projects to be as good or better (Fielder/Overbay, Escobar/Hardy), or when they are about to leave or you are better off if they left and the value you can get is better than any comp picks you may get. Yeah there are exceptions to every rule, and yeah if someone is desperate and blows you away with an offer you make the deal. But having cheap bullpen arms will allow the team to take the salaries of Hoffman/Hawkins/Riske/etc. and put that towards FA position players to fill the holes. For example, Aubrey Huff was had for $3M in the offseason by the Giants - a player like that could fill the role of RF or 1B should they trade Hart or Fielder. -
we've discussed how tough it will be to find Paciorek AB's with Cutter Dykstra's emergence and Chris Dennis locked into the DH spot... I think Paciorek, much like Jarrett Bush, has incriminating pictures of someone real high up in the organization. Don't get me wrong, I like the guy and he was my sleeper pick from that draft and I know he was drafted out of high school... but I don't think I've ever seen anyone last this long in an organization while doing so little at the plate. Good OBP in 2007 but then for some reason repeated the ASL - not a good sign; then two awful years in 2008 and 2009 with a .583 and .634 OPS. Good OBP this year but a horrible .277 SLG. Many a player has been released far sooner with a much better track record...
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Power 50 discussion -- Latest: September Power 50 now up!
LouisEly replied to And That's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
I think McClendon graced the list back in 2007 when he was still a starter with West Virginia, but I'm too lazy to look it up. Curious if Frerichs got any votes from anyone. In his last three years, most of last year lost to injury, he has 151 Ks and only 114 H in 144 IP. -
ever-improving RHP Corey Frerichs While he lost last year to injury, in 2008 he posted 73 IP, 57 H, a little high with 42 BB, and 92K at low A. Ks are down this year with only 53 in 62 innings, but also on 47 H in those 62 innings. So over the last 3 years (2.2 if you subtract injury time) in 144 IP he has given up only 114 H and K'd 151.
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Future of the Texas Rangers in question
LouisEly replied to Invader3K's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Ridiculous. They have to have an even number of teams in order to play or they won't have a season. They'd have to find a city and ballpark by the start of next season and unless they want to play in a AAA park there are few if any options. -
You can get an "A la Carte" subscription where you pick 50 channels for as low as $6.95/month: http://www.sirius.com/packages/alacarte Most people only listen to a dozen or so channels anyway. Sirius play-by-play sports consumes 25 channels, XM play-by-play another 10 so there's your sports channels. Then choose 15 more, and that should encompass most of the music channels you listen to. The premium channels cost $0.25 per month on top of the $6.95/mo.
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What's carp is that other teams know that if they hit us first warnings will be issued to both benches and thus any retaliation will result in the Brewers pitcher being ejected. If I'm a major league umpire and something like what happened to Prince happens (after a HR the first one is at his head and the second one hits his back), I call both managers out and tell them that the team that got hit gets to stick one of the other teams players and then warnings will be issued, and anyone leaving the dugout will be ejected. McCann should have been drilled after the grand slam. At least Parra hit Heyward and Glaus, but it wasn't in the right situation.
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Power 50 discussion -- Latest: September Power 50 now up!
LouisEly replied to And That's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
From his hitting coach Matt Erickson quoted here a week ago: "Timber Rattlers hitting coach Matt Erickson breaks down Cutter Dykstra: - Offensive progress: "First of all, the kid looks healthy this year. Obviously, he got off to a rough start here offensively (last season). He had some mechanical issues we were working on. But he never really found a whole lot of confidence and therefore never really got into a rhythm. "This year, he came to spring training and you could tell immediately that he did some work in the offseason. One, he did look healthy and two, his swing looked real good. He had a definite plan in the early morning into his early work. A lot of the stuff we tried to develop last year, here — we talk a lot about first year, the process of developing a routine, something that you believe in and then build on that everyday — he bought into that. He definitely has a routine now, off the tee and his flips. "We talk about backside turn, starting your swing with your lower half and I told him today he arguably, right now, might have the best lower half on our team, which produces a lot of bat speed. He's a very confident kid right now. He's having some success. Everything he's doing is very repeatable and he feels that, offensively, he's got some confidence and it shows. So it's fun to watch." - Defense: "I know we've bounced him around the past couple of years at a couple of positions. "He struggled in the outfield last year and we moved him to second. Obviously, we didn't have an opening there when he came here (because of Scooter Gennett), but we did have an opening at third. It's a credit to his versatility and his willingness to bounce around and do anything to get into the lineup. We've had a talk about that. The more positions you can play, the more opportunities you're going to get to be in the lineup. If you swing the bat, the manager is going to find room for you somewhere. "At third base, it's shown over the last couple of weeks that he's getting more comfortable over there as far as positioning. When we first put him out there, he was looking into the dugout on every hitter. Now he's doing his positioning pretty much on his own. He's taking his time. He understands he has a little more time at third base, get your feet under you and make a good throw. He's turning more into a complete player than we saw last year." -
Dave Bush now has a 67% quality start ratio, which ranks 19th in the NL. Perhaps the best thing that could happen to the Brewers right now would be for the Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox, Tigers, Twins, Rangers or Angels to have a starting pitcher go down for the season. 7 teams in the AL within 3.5 games of first, plus Boston 5.5 out of first, 2.5 out of the Wild Card. That's lots of potential demand for Bush.
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One very important term and condition that you need to be aware of... I just called them to switch my service to a new vehicle and the customer service rep told me that once you switch your service to a vehicle w/a factory-installed satellite radio receiver you cannot switch it to another receiver. This was not told to me when I switched my service from a plug & play receiver to a vehicle 3 years ago - I was charged $75, but they never said once it was switched to a vehicle that you can't switch it again. After demanding to speak with a manager the CSR told me that they would allow me to switch my service to a different receiver three times, and that I had already used one of them. So if you have or are considering a lifetime subscription I would be very hesitant to switch it to a vehicle and would keep it on a plug & play receiver - and make sure to find out the terms and conditions before doing so. I wonder what they would say if you totaled your vehicle and could not use it anymore; you could probably talk insurance into covering that in your claim though. So some lessons learned: 1) There is no such thing as a "lifetime" subscription - even if you can switch your service three times, these receivers are electronics and won't last forever. Neither will vehicles. 2) If you want service in a vehicle that has a factory-installed receiver and you are leasing it or don't plan on having it for long I would consider getting a second subscription (which they usually give you for $6.95/mo or so) for that vehicle and the lifetime subscription on a plug-and-play receiver that you can take with you.
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2010-07-12 Homerun Derby, 7:00 PM CDT
LouisEly replied to pretendastronaut's topic in Archived Game Threads
I hereby issue a permanent ban on musical performances at sporting events featuring a ukulele or Ashlee Simpson. -
If it's the same Cattlemen's, it is a regional chain restaurant out here in CA. I'm a fan of Sweet Baby Ray's (partucularly the Hickory & Brown Sugar flavor), but other's I like are Zeke's Smokehouse (particularly the Carolina Mustard BBQ sauce) and Lucile's Smokehouse (particularly the Memphis BBQ sauce). Both have multiple flavors if you have different tastes.
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Your 2010 Wisconsin Timber Rattlers
LouisEly replied to bnedaddy's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Dykstra's OBP now up to .414; power hasn't come yet, but anytime a guy has an OBP over .400 you have to pay attention to him. Obviously he is new to 3B, so I'm wondering for those who have seen him in person does he have the arm/ability to stay there? He just turned 21, so can he turn into a Jeff Cirillo-type 3B and put up a line like .280/.370/.430 - .800 OPS? Or is his future more likely trade bait as he has McGehee/Gamel/Green ahead of him at 3B and Weeks/Lawrie/Gennett ahead of him at 2B? -
The reason you don't put a guy immediately on the DL is because once you put a guy on the DL you can't take it back - he's out for 15 days. If it were ultimately a cramp or something minor that only lasts a day or two you've now lost your ace for 3 starts. Thus they wait a couple of days to try to make the most accurate diagnosis possible before shelving him. You can always retroactive a DL stint to the day after the last game he played.
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In reading this post, particularly the last two sentences, I immediately thought of the Hardy and Overbay trades.
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Gold, Neugebauer, Jones, Hendrickson, Fredrickson, Gallardo, and I know there were several others rated very high on the Power 50 at that same time. Those guys were spread out over a period of 6-8 years. The Brewers have more than that all at once right now - that's my point. Usually you only had two of those guys in the system at a time (Gold+Neugie, Jones+Hendrickson, Eveland+Gallardo). Now they have 10-15. More spaghetti to throw against the wall and see what sticks. In fact the only three that get me excited on that list as starters are Peralta, Odorizzi and Heckathorn. Naturally they are at the two lowest levels. I'm not saying they are all aces. Odorizzi could be a #1/#2, Rogers could be a #1/#2 (if he can get the walks down and go longer), Heckathorn & Peralta could be a #3, Rivas/Scarpetta/Butler could be a #4, the others could be #5 and bullpen guys.
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You left out the best and most pertinent part of the article: "Suffice it to say that the Brewers are frustrated with the pace of the recoveries of Gerut and Estrada. They won't say it on the record but the unusual move of sending the players home to continue their rehabs is a motivational move to get them back in action. In other words, if players don't have the perks of being in a major-league clubhouse, perhaps they will be motivated to push harder through their rehabs and get back on the field."
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Here's the thing as far as "selling" - the pitching is coming. The Brewers have nothing at AAA for starting pitching prospects, but if you look at: AA: Rogers, Butler, Rivas, Fiers (Periard) A+: Scarpetta, Peralta, Anundsen, Jeffress A: Odorizzi, Heckathorn, Bucci, Lasker, Howell That's 14 pitching prospects over 3 levels - I don't think I have ever seen that many legitimate pitching prospects in the Brewers system. Usually they have one or two at each level, not four or five. That's an entire staff including bullpen right there, not including their top 3 picks from this year's draft. The pitching is coming. Maybe not until mid-2011 or 2012, but it is coming. And it will be cheap for a while, freeing up cash to spend on other positions Point being, I don't know that we need to load up on pitching prospects as we need to get one really good #2 starter, and we have over $30M coming off the books to be able to acquire it. The other thing is that I don't see an impact bat anywhere close to what Fielder brings (or has the potential to bring) coming up. I don't see any hitters, much less LH hitters, with the potential to be 1.000 OPS guys in the majors. If they get rid of Fielder then what do they have as far as impact LH bats? None. I say make a legitimate run at Fielder because right now the only players committed to a significant amount of money for 2012 are Braun, Gallardo, maybe Parra if he keeps pitching well as a starter, and Wolf - he could be off the books in 2013. For those of you who say just replace Fielder w/Adam Dunn, Dunn is making $12M this year, not much less than what Fielder will command in free agency. If the return on trade for Fielder isn't as good as Teixeria, then the free agent demand for him won't be as high either and thus his salary won't be as high. If they are going to "sell" Hart and/or Fielder, then I say flip some of those prospects for a legit #2 starter who will be around for a couple of years, particularly if the free agent pitching crop is poor. Be both "sellers" and "buyers". But right now I am not in favor of being "sellers" just to acquire prospects. They have pitching prospects, they are just 1.5-2 years away. They don't need to overhaul the roster; they need to do five things: 1) Find a manager with leadership skills 2) Find a legitimate #2 3) Have Braun/Fielder revert to career norms 4) Have Escobar improve offensively and defensively 5) Improve CF offensively That's it. And if Parra can be effective beyond 90 pitches and Cain can play CF they may be able to accomplish all of those things internally. As others have mentioned they have an ERA under 4.00 since June 1st (maybe not after tonight). They've gotten rid of some of the dead weight (Suppan, Vargas, Stetter, Estrada), put some of it on the DL (Davis, Hawkins), and some of it has righted the ship (Hoffman - 1 ER in last 8 appearances). Just think of all the games those seven cost us alone - 8? 10? They could easily be 45-39 just as they are 37-47. They don't need drastic changes - anymore. They've already made them by getting Suppan/Davis/Hawkins/Vargas/Stetter/Estrada off of the roster.
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I absolutely want nothing to do with the post '10 FA pitchers. You want nothing to do with a guy who has been in the top 10 in WHIP 3 of the last 4 years, top 10 in fewest walks/9 innings 3 of the last 4 years, top 15 in ERA 3 of the last 4 years, and top 10 in fewest HRs allowed in 3 of the last 4 years? They look like 25 guys doing their own thing. Bingo. This is the primary responsibility of the manager, and he is failing miserably at it, which means he should be fired. I think you might be surprised how good of a team we have with a good leader as manager. There is a big difference between a "leader" and a "manager". Your first order of business is right on; you might not need #2 and #3 after the execution of #1.
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Three everyday above-average players, one a superstar, for one player who plays every 5 days at a position that is very injury-risk high (see Gallardo, Peavey this week alone) is not my idea of a good trade. If you are trading players the caliber of Fielder, Hart, and Gamel I would need more than one pitcher in return. Fielder should be able to get comparable to what Texas got for Tiexeria. Substitute a pitcher for Saltalamacchia and a pitcher or lower-level SS prospect for Andrus.
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Macha won't get fired. Why? Because they don't want Randolph or Sveum coaching the team next year, and even if the team simply plays to it's preseason expectations in the second half, they'll be 'way better' under the new manager and he'll have his whole leg in the door for next year. I really don't understand why firing Macha means that Randolph or Sveum will be managing the team next year. Sveum took over when they fired Yost, guided them to the playoffs, but wasn't retained as manager and they hired Macha. They need to fire Macha to find out if a different manager has any impact on the performance of the team so that they have a better idea of what offseason moves they need to make. With so many key players performing under recent career norms (Fielder, Braun, Wolf, Davis, Coffey, Hoffman, Hawkins) they need to see if that is because of the players or because of how they are being managed. If a different manager makes no difference in performance, they need to make more roster changes than if they play better under a different manager.

