I disagree here... If he has a solid first half (say 10-3 with a 3.25 ERA).... his price tag just went WAY up, and he's only a few months from his walk yearIf we want to sign him to an extension, the time is now (pre-spring training). It is a gamble, but signing a FA is a gamble as well I tossed out a 4/40 number, others have mentioned 4/60... much like Braun's deal, he has made very little $$$ so far, and our chance to get him to sign at/below market value is before he can bank some dough in his #2 and #3 arby years. If we give him $5-6 mil this year, and he knows he's going to get (minimum $8-10M in 2012), our leverage goes way down next offseason If he signs now... he is risking giving up 5/90 on the open market perhaps... but if he regresses or gets hurt, he is leaving 40-50M on the table with us. Given he has made very little (career wise)... passing up $40M for a chance at $90-100M would be stupid