Fear The Chorizo

They only started soliciting bids. They didn't actually buy any yet. That comes next month. I know - they have stopped taking out of the reserve to supplement whatever other supply is coming in from producers to refine, and that loss of product entering the refining market isn't going make the price of gas drop. That can also help explain a portion of the dip in refinery utilization, too - although this time of year its common for refinery output to drop a bit (not 12%, but some) for a few weeks no matter what the weather is doing. End of year cleaning/equipment maintenance and staffing limitations over the holidays aren't anything new - particularly at the end of a year when refineries were basically running at max capacity most of the time. And knowing the government is going to become a buying customer for the forseeable future is going impact oil futures markets. I doubt they are in any hurry to rapidly replenish the SPR anywhere close to where it was a year ago but they probably do need to get it back over 500M barrels, unless things really get bad economically and they can buy oil at $30 a barrel to totally replenish the reserve and keep oil companies operating because demand has cratered.

That along with the fact they've finally stopped drawing from the reserve a few weeks ago helps explain why the price of gas has shot up $0.30/gallon by me in two weeks during what is typically the lowest seasonal period of demand, even before this limited sale happens and oil actually gets siphoned away from the market and back into empty storage tanks. The fact that this initial bid process is for purchasing 3 million barrels when the SPR was depleted of ~225 million barrels in the last year indicates how long this buyback process will inflate prices at the pump over where they'd be without needing to put oil back in the reserve. I think the average sale from the SPR was with oil around $96/barrel - right now it's at low to mid $70s, so the govmint will make a 30% killing on buying enough oil to refill about 1% of what they removed from the reserve. Despite the plan of instilling price caps/controls on buybacks independent from the market, these fixed price contracts won't look nearly as attractive to producers when they will be able to sell oil elsewhere for much closer or even more than $100/barrel, which is where prices will head once again as the year goes along. This also all assumes there won't be any new geopolitical or weather events that would typically warrant drawing from the SPR to prevent supply problems or price shocks over the course of years, not months or weeks.

I will repeat - Attanasio's net worth currently hovers around $700 Million dollars, most of which is tied up in investments that have lost value over the last few years with market gyrations. He does own controlling interest in the Brewers, but isn't the sole owner of the team as there are plenty of minority ownership stakes. Why people want Mark A. to spend like Cohen (who is worth closer to $15Billion dollars with a B) to increase player payroll beyond what this organization can support on its own revenues defies reasonable logic and expectations. I think there is a better likelihood Mark A. sells the team before he gives Arnold his savings account information to start spending like a fool on veteran free agents.

I really like Adames and would really like to keep him a Brewer another 3-4 seasons....but since contract extensions and free agent deals don't work that way in baseball I've just never seen the point of considering a longterm extension for Adames given the years of control they still have on him. The Brewers can pay him yearly for the next two seasons until he'd reach free agency in 2025 after his 29-yr old season. Keeping players of Adames' caliber through their prime at a reasonable cost needs to be the Brewers' focus, not looking to identify more veterans to throw longterm money at. Why throw $250+M at a player well into his 30s who will only diminish in value defensively at SS as he ages, and who is a low-300's OBP player? I think the Brewers need to pay him what he gets in arbitration for 2023, and potentially explore trading him next offseason before the 2024 season to get some return value and give the SS position to Turang - who also is a very good defensive SS.

I really like Adames and would really like to keep him a Brewer another 3-4 seasons....but since contract extensions and free agent deals don't work that way in baseball I've just never seen the point of considering a longterm extension for Adames given the years of control they still have on him. The Brewers can pay him yearly for the next two seasons until he'd reach free agency in 2025 after his 29-yr old season. Keeping players of Adames' caliber through their prime at a reasonable cost needs to be the Brewers' focus, not looking to identify more veterans to throw longterm money at. Why throw $250+M at a player well into his 30s who will only diminish in value defensively at SS as he ages, and who is a low-300's OBP player? I think the Brewers need to pay him what he gets in arbitration for 2023, and potentially explore trading him next offseason before the 2024 season to get some return value and give the SS position to Turang - who also is a very good defensive SS.

Hiura's total regular season plate appearance totals since 2018 (minors + majors): 2018: 535 - K rate of about 20% between A+ and AA 2019: 591 - K rate of about 28% between AAA and MLB 2020: 246 (COVID year) - K rate of 34% 2021: 403 - K rate of about 37% between MLB and AAA 2022: 325 - K rate of about 39% between MLB and AAA I don't believe he's suffered a major injury to cause him to miss significant time over the previous 2 seasons, so those season-long plate appearance totals in 2021-2022 are a disservice to his development as a hitter, particularly at the MLB level. Is there a correlation between a higher K rate and more sporadic ABs? Sure there is, but then the flip side is he likely wouldn't have had as as much turbulence out of lineups at the MLB level if he wasn't striking out so much, too. He also dealt with having his mother fighting lymphoma throughout 2021. Many players scuffled offensively during that shortened COVID season in 2020 - but I think it impacted Hiura moreso than other more established hitters, as he had to suffer through trying to make that 1st adjustment all young hitters do against MLB pitching once they've gotten a book on him during a season without video assistance in the clubhouse and when extra work/practice opportunities were severely limited for fear of virus transmission. the most easily explainable reason for the sky-high k rates in recent years is likely the changes made to his swing path to improve launch angle and HR rate, which reduces the length of time his bat is in the hitting area of a swing....for a guy who leans on hand speed so heavily to do damage at the plate and naturally has more of a slider-speed bat in today's game because of it, that was probably a very poor decision for his career arc. But, I also really hope he's gotten his eyesight checked....

Apparently OPS is no longer a sought after stat teams should use to build offensive rosters, since the Brewers shipped away two of their top 3 bats from last season in that department (Renfroe and Wong) and all of Hiura's other metrics make him a terrible hitter who can't possibly maintain an above league average OPS...despite the fact he carried an above league average OPS last season in sporadic playing time. Getting on base and hitting for power/slugging (all other metrics on how a player gets there be damned) must not matter much in today's MLB...except for the fact the 2022 MLB playoff teams accounted for 8 of the top 10 and 11 of the top 16 offenses in MLB based on team OPS last season. The Brewers were somehow 10th in team OPS last year, which indicates if they pitched up to expectations they would've been a playoff team. My point isn't necessarily that Hiura should be the everyday DH in 2023 based on the current roster configuration...I hope Winker reverts back to pre 2022 production and Hiura improves against lefties enough so they both are positive offensive contributors. I think his role will get sorted out in Spring Training if he's still on the roster - my point is the production Hiura did provide in 2022 warranted him getting more opportunities last year with that teams' offensive roster, and he wasn't given them at the MLB level primarily because they paid a mid 30s OF on the physical decline $8.5M to provide a 0.700 OPS across 580 plate appearances as the primary DH. To me the worst decision was to send Hiura to AAA early in the season, after he had a good Spring Training then proceeded to be a bench player who had most of his ABs come against lefthanded pitching into May. The same people saying small samples should be discounted then taking a 3 week stretch of semi-consistent at bats from Hiura in late August/early September as a reason why he stinks is just too ironic for me. Hiura really has just 1.5 seasons of MLB plate appearance across parts of 4 MLB seasons, which is honestly still not enough of a sample to accurately forecast what he'll do moving forward.

Hiura was more a victim of having a minor league option left when he was demoted early in the 2022 season, which happened after he was primarily the DH option against lefties and McCutcheon was DH-ing against righties and then playing the OF against lefty starters because nobody else on the team was hitting worth a lick. In the Brewers' spirit of maintaining roster flexibility, the fact that Hiura is a poor defender with reverse splits crushed his role as a DH platoon asset against RHP and a late inning PH option off the bench. I was against the Brewers signing McCutcheon from the day the ink was still wet on that contract, because I wanted them to give Hiura the DH role full time on this roster and give him extended playing time without fear of being benched or shuttled back and forth to AAA every time a 14th pitcher came off the DL and needed a roster spot. I thought it was a poor allocation of limited financial resources and didn't have significant upside - the only upside were if McCutcheon had a platoon-mate to be the DH against righties. Hiura was still that option, but the roster wasn't managed that way early in the season when it would've helped solidify Keston's role on the MLB roster. Assuming Hiura is still on the Brewers' 40 man roster come spring training, this is a make or break spring for him as a Brewer because the minor league options are gone. Like it or not with all the warts, Hiura still had the 4th highest OPS on the team for hitters with more than 100 ABs last season behind only Renfroe, Rowdy, and Wong.

It was never, ever intended to be used as a way to manipulate gas prices at the pump, definitely not to the extent that it was drawn down (~40% reduction in 2022) knowing the current domestic production capabilities won't be enough on its own to both maintain domestic supply and build the reserve back up without prices spiking again. Let's just hope there isn't further international strife that disrupts the supply to the US domestically now that the reserve has reached a level where it can no longer be used as a rainy day fund for energy supply. And buying it back next year in the midst of a recession will actually keep gas/oil prices higher than they otherwise would be during a period of diminished demand.

yes and no - the concept of upping the quality game for auto manufacturers to maintain market share has been around for a looong time, which has definitely led to increased vehicle age on the roads over the years. If US automakers hadn't upped their game 15 years ago many more of those companies wouldn't be around. The recent surge and now drop in used car prices is more supply and demand-based, not just because cars magically got more reliable in the past two years so nobody even wanted to buy a different (new or used) vehicle than the one(s) they currently have.

they've dropped about $.40/.50 a gallon here in MPLS area the last few weeks, too. end of summer gas formulations, typical seasonal drop in driving miles for winter in the midwest, and a good ol' fashioned recession is a good mix to get those prices back down. Also, just checked the SPR stockpile graph - seems like oil has continued being siphoned from them even into December, down to levels not seen since early 1984....that's definitely having an impact to accentuate gas price dips for now.

There's a ton of value for small market clubs to mine out of minor league systems with players who aren't bonus baby 1st round talents, prospects who were positionally blocked, and/or former HS draftees who just didn't develop in time before they had to be shipped elsewhere/released by their original organization - particularly if injuries early in their career were the cause. The Brewers need to be bigtime players on the prospect/minor league free agent scrap heap in order for them to maximize the talent brought into the organization each year. Once you get past the players drafted in the top 5 overall picks each year and how they typically jump into the top of these lists, a huge aspect of prospect ratings are dependent on timing of both when guys flash and when other guys graduate off the list into MLB. Sometimes players force themselves into MLB so quickly the top 100 list doesn't have enough time to course-correct and push them up the ladder.

anyone else really looking forward the 1st time the now Cardinal Wilson C. gets hit by a backup slider next season with his little bro behind the plate?

Yes, the mileage driven lag during the pandemic definitely helped extend the life of used cars to the point we're at currently in the US. We've got a pair of 120K+ mile vehicles currently going in our household, and our gameplan is to also splurge on a new or very lightly used vehicle as our new primary when that time comes and then keep our minivan for local kiddo shuttling. My small SUV probably will have less miles on it but really won't fit our family as the kids get bigger, so I'd hope to sell that via craigslist to have a healthy downpayment on our new ride once we're ready to buy. It'll take one of our cars becoming mechanically unusable before we buy another one - at least until car prices drop quite a bit more.

Average age of a vehicle across the US has ballooned to over 12 years, an all-time high for this country. Used car sales plummeting was bound to happen when large portions of the consumer base for buying used were priced out of the market and have instead continued pumping money into their existing rides for repairs.

One question though -- how did this dude get hit by a pitch 27 times in one season? For a right handed batter, the toughest pitch to try and bunt for a base hit is inside velocity - they are trying to bunt the ball out in front of the plate and either angle it down the line or push between 1st and 2nd, while starting out running out of the box towards 1st. An inside fastball limits their ability to get a good angle to bunt towards 3rd and get extension to push it to the right side, and impedes them from getting a good start out of the RH batter's box. The high HBP rate could be as simple as a basic scouting report attempted to be executed by minor league pitchers with less than stellar command and have nothing to do with Ruiz crowding the plate or looking to lean into pitches to get on base.

If SLG means slugging percentage, the info in that tweet is not accurate. Also, hard hit rate for guys who bunt for base hits (a rarity in today's game) should not be viewed as a key stat. Speed turns a ton of poorly hit baseballs into base hits - and outlawing a shift only amplifies that. Ruiz also did hit 16 HR last year in the minors, while Frelick hit 11. With regard to Ruiz, worst case scenario for him barring injuries that sap him of his game-altering speed is probably Billy Hamilton - a guy who didn't perform nearly as well as Ruiz did offensively at upper levels of the minor leagues who went on to have a ~10 year MLB career based solely on his speed. Like it or not, exchanging prospects for any player who winds up having a 10 year MLB career is probably a win for the team acquiring that player. Ruiz profiles as a better offensive player than Hamilton at the MLB level, and he will be an absolute terror stealing bases if he maintains an OBP even over 0.300. The Brewers made out very well in this trade because they filled a position of need with a young and talented catcher at the MLB level along with pitching depth, AND while they gave up young MLB-ready talent in return it was from a position they have depth at in terms of MLB-ready outfield prospects.

It's his take on the Yelich trade that makes me think this deal is going to wind up being one the Brewers regret.

I think it's a solid move for Milwaukee to acquire a good and young everyday offensive catcher by using developed OF prospect depth - even if Ruiz winds up being the best MLB outfielder among Frelick and Mitchell I think it's a good trade because they're all probably holding a roster spot for Chourio, who's going to be in Milwaukee sooner than later. Looking at Ruiz's and Frelick's stats from their 2022 AA/AAA seasons in a vacuum without knowing draft pedigree or career arc, and there'd be plenty of a case for Ruiz to be more highly valued.

Guessing it's going to include one of the other young OF prospects not named Chourio, too. Or a young arm + Hiura I was actually hoping Ruiz would remain a Brewer when the offseason dust settled and have a legit shot at regular playing time in Milwaukee - I think he's going to be good. That being said, Chourio is probably taking the OF MLB playing time from a couple of the group of AAA OFs (Mitchell, Frelick, Ruiz) in a season or two, and now is probably as good a time as any to deal from a position of depth at the top of their system.

In addition to the full NTC, kind of a gaping omission of the article to neglect mentioning Yelich shattering his kneecap by fouling a ball off his leg in mid September 2019 as a potential reason why his production at the plate dramatically changed since then. Not to mention the fact he's consistently had back issues, which tend to not get better with age. At the time Yelich's new contract was announced, I was happy with the deal but wondered why both sides would make the move when they did. From Yelich's side, why lock in a longterm team-friendly discount after what was basically back to back MVP-level seasons? From the Brewers' side, why do that deal right as COVID is blowing up stateside and threatening the 2020 season and why not wait at least until you can see similar onfield production after his knee injury when you still had him under team control on his prior deal for several more seasons?

In addition to the full NTC, kind of a gaping omission of the article to neglect mentioning Yelich shattering his kneecap by fouling a ball off his leg in mid September 2019 as a potential reason why his production at the plate dramatically changed since then. Not to mention the fact he's consistently had back issues, which tend to not get better with age. At the time Yelich's new contract was announced, I was happy with the deal but wondered why both sides would make the move when they did. From Yelich's side, why lock in a longterm team-friendly discount after what was basically back to back MVP-level seasons? From the Brewers' side, why do that deal right as COVID is blowing up stateside and threatening the 2020 season and why not wait at least until you can see similar onfield production after his knee injury when you still had him under team control on his prior deal for several more seasons?

SBF should be in jail and there needs to be an investigation into everyone involved. But of course neither of those things will happen. Particularly with all his friend$ in Wa$hington. Crypto is just so uncertain because it hasn't been around long enough through true global economic downturns. Forecasting what happens with it, whether the whole works craters or seeing certain cryptocurrencies skyrocket in value is all speculation at this point.

Haven't seen too many commercials lately pimping crypto exchanges...figured it was due to election season ad buys but it sure seems like it's alot more than that in light of FTX crashing and burning.

all that's missing is a trade to somehow get Cooper Hummel in the heart of the Brewers order and giving him a 14-yr $137.5-million dollar extension with $98M in Kohls cash.