Fear The Chorizo

Please explain - what you refer to over the years are shorter term IL stints and maximizing rehab assignments. That is not at all what the Dodgers have established a pattern of doing the past few years. The Brewers also have a history of waiting too long for a key veteran player to hit the IL and play shorthanded at the MLB level for close to a week, only to retroactively IL that player once he proves he cant get into the lineup.

Mods feel free to move this elsewhere if there's a better fit on this board. With trade deadline season fully heated up and all the assumptions of the Dodgers landing any and every impact player if they want to despite already having dramatic payroll and roster advantages over the rest of MLB, I decided to take a closer look at their 40 man roster. They currently have a surprising amount of minor league guys and role player type arms on it, and the reason is so many of their best arms and players currently sit on the 60 day IL. Snell, Glasnow, and Will Smith are obviously key cogs in the Dodgers' plans to try and 3 peat as World Series Champs this October - the timing of them all curiously going on the 60 day IL with various minor/nagging injury issues has to be questioned, given the fact all are appearing to readily ramp up their rehabs and will likely be back in Dodger blue in early to mid-August - just enough time to shake the rust off and be rested/primed for another playoff run. Add in Treinan on the 15-day IL also progressing back on schedule for a similar return date. Current rules allow for players to be placed on the 60 day IL and be removed from the 40 man roster in order to give guys with legitimate moderate but not season-ending injuries the opportunity to get back to MLB. I do think there's value in preserving that option, but I also think teams are gaming that system, the Dodgers in particular, to preserve health/wear and tear on their veteran players so they're fresh for the postseason. They've essentially created a 45 man roster with using the 60 day IL, and have been able to protect losing some of their developed prospects by timing the return of their veteran studs after the trade deadline. It's yet another advantage that organization has over essentially everyone else in MLB. Knowing the only reason the Dodgers could be in the mix for an impact starter like Skubal is because they're stowing 3-5 of an already stellar rotation (including Ohtani with the weird "two way player" roster exemption they get) in their back pocket until the calendar gets to mid-August is particularly sickening. I don't want to completely do away with a 60-day IL option, but I think MLB needs to strongly consider placing limits on how long that list can be before forcing teams/players onto a season ending IL where their year (regular and postseason) is done. The Dodgers currently have 8 players on their 60-day IL who could in theory return to the 26-man MLB gameday roster, while the Brewers have 6. That seems reasonably close in comparison until you see that the only Brewer currently on the list with any shot at returning to Milwaukee this year is Lockridge - the rest are pitchers who have underwent season ending surgery this league year, the lone exception being Zastrysny - whose shoulder probably needs the knife, too.

Remember when the Brewers landed C.C. they got extra aggressive and increased their prospect package two weeks before the deadline so they could get extra starts from him. If Detroit is insistent to wait until the last minute to get as big a return as possible, for what will be 4 or even 5 fewer starts for the team winning the bidding (remember CC was on short rest much of september after Sheets went down and no way is Boras letting Skubal do that), i almost hope the tiger GM's phone gets lost on Aug 3 and he doesnt get dealt at all.

Tend to agree with prospects being overvalued....but that simply isn't the case for Made. You just cant give up on the potential ceiling for a 19 yr old, 5 tool player built like an NFL safety that can play IF, switch hits and is OPS-ing well over 0.800 in a pitcher-friendly AA league. When you factor in contract cost, current career arc, and remaining team control, there are barely a handful of MLB players or other prospects I'd think of trading Made for in a 1 for 1 swap. I would exclude basically all pitchers given their injury risk with that list, too. Made may never realize that potential of being a perennial MVP candidate, but he's a good enough prospect for the Brewers to keep him around and find out for themselves.

I get that thought....I just hope next offseason actually happens this winter and not 2029 after a very long break from baseball. It's because of what I'm assuming is either a nonexistent offseason and perhaps totally missed 2027 season due to CBA strife that I do want the brewers to get very aggressive at this deadline, since it could be their best chance to win a WS. I'm not saying trade Made or unload their system, but get a couple impact players to give them the best shot this year, knowing the farm is crazy deep right now.

This has the feel of a precursor move reshuffling the roster and creating space before a targeted reliever gets added, especially if one or two of the guys coming here from Cleveland don't have to be put on the 40 man.

I can't bring myself to trade Fischer for a rental - I know he's got swing and miss warts but the rest of his offensive profile in his 1st professional season at 3rd or 1B in a year or two in Milwaukee would be unreal to have. If Fischer were part of a trade for a Mason Miller, I could get behind that. I want Skubal and Miller - and I think if the Brewers were serious about going after both they could readily put packages together that we both wouldn't mind seeing go and other organizations vying for those arms couldn't match. That's how damn good the Brewers' farm system is right now.

Mark my words, if the Dodgers land Skubal they wont resign him - not in December and not ever....because the rest of baseball will be willing to miss as many regular seasons as needed to fully share broadcast revenue and implement a salary cap that will force the Dodgers to actually cut or trade players from their existing roster to get under the future cap. No CBA in place after this league year ends means no offseason to sign any free agents, either

That is why the brewers will need to be selectively trading prospects the next few deadlines...they have so damn many that profile as major leaguers they cant keep them all

Yelich hasn't deserved everyday ABs for quite awhile this season - and it's because his back and age has made him a shell of the player who would be a great fit at the top of this lineup. They need to find a legitimate reason to put Yelich on the IL for awhile, and chronic back issues are more than legitimate - maybe a few weeks off gets him back to being a positive offensively - right now he's an anchor. Getting Yelich off the active roster gives Bauers and Vaughn platoon-advantaged everyday at bats and get the best Brewers OF (offensively and defensively) on the field regularly. Honestly, it's the time to have that tough conversation with a player who has to know his own eyes aren't deceiving him, either.

Looking like ill be up at a resort near Ely after all for my yearly BWCA trip in a couple weeks, as day use permits are gradually being reopened. Will be fishing really close to areas that burned, so interested in seeing the extent. Rainy period up there over the past two weeks really helped get fires in and closer to the border under contol.

The longterm solution for this is to either find a way to include Lockridge in a trade package for a reliever/fringe prospect from a team in need of a utility OF in wildcard contention, or be bold and move frelick now as part of a package for an impact arm even if he's injured. Out of it teams looking for a quick mlb roster upgrade with years left of control would value frelick. I wouldnt mind seeing him in a tiger or padre uniform....or he would be a perfect add for Boston this offseason (if there is an offseason) I say this not because I dislike Frelick and what he can bring to the brewers when he's healthy and playing well - its because Lara is a much better player than Frelick right now and I want the best players on the field as much as possible at the MLB level when theyre ready. Mitchell is proving what he can do when he is healthy and playing most days and frelick should not take starts away from him, either. Optioning Lara to make room for lockridge cannot happen - perkins needs to go back down

Did the model account for Mason Miller and Skubal being added to this roster in the next week? 😉 Honestly, anything Fangraphs publishes related to projected records and the Brewers is, well, wrong. That's been proven over and over and over again. There will always be outliers across the league, but when one team consistently overperforms your projection - your model is wrong for that team. When you don't try to improve that at all and insist on getting the same wrong result from a projection model that is bad, I'm sorry you lose alot of credibility.

gotta blow this one open this inning, or I don't like how this game would be feeling

Giving up 4 runs in a game isn't the end of the world, and the Brewers largely hit into some tough luck themselves with all the warning track fly balls and a few diving plays - tons of flyball outs last night that a centimeter different on the barrel are home runs in that park. can't win 'em all

Exactly my point - calendar years in the majors and service time calcs are different - but its obviously a reason woodruff will do whatever he can to sign another 2 year MLB contract predicated on him rehabbing all of 2027 and part of 2028 before seeing if he can actually pitch at the highest level again. He could accrue that 10 years time without ever truly being able to pitch again in the majors with IL time. I hope he finds a team that will give him that shot - i just dont want it to be the brewers doing it. Lets be honest - his career has been extended the last 3 years because of this organization.

Don't think this has been mentioned specifically in this thread, and sorry if it has - i believe this is Woodruff's 9th year in MLB....10 years service time gets you fully vested in MLB's player pension system, health care for life, etc... Pretty solid reasons to figure out how to get a MLB contract somehow next year for himself

The Brewers are too good as an organization at developing and acquiring pitching talent to perform at far less than whatever the WAR-based veteran contract value is for high end starters to mess around with paying "market value" $$$ for arms that are past their prime and broken down. It sucks for Woodruff as a person and ive always rooted for him, but thats reality.

His 2024-2025 contract after his 1st shoulder surgery was a MLB deal. He wont sign a miLB contract with a team for 1 year just to rehab, it would be some sort of two year MLB deal that would require rostering him for periods of time on the 40 man, leading to whatever organization signs him doing roster gymnastics with healthy players to avoid losing them before tossing him onto the 60 day IL. If other teams arent willing to do that, he'll probably be forced into retirement. With the amount of talent the brewers have in their system, it just makes zero sense to do that song and dance with Woodruff into summer 2028.

They paid him $22M this year for 9 starts. They paid him $2.5 M to rehab all of 2024 so they could pay him $15M for 12 starts in 2025 His injury history tells me no contract structuring makes sense for the Brewers' end to keep him around past this season. Good for him he can get this second shoulder surgery done now and still have 4 months to rehab within the Brewers' org and stay with the team until the league year ends. You don't put a mid-30's guy coming off his second shoulder surgery on a contract you think could squeak into the bullpen 2 seasons from now just because he hit a HR of Kershaw in the NLCS in 2018.

The earliest Woodruff could be back pitching in the major leagues is sometime in 2028. When you look at the logjam of young arms the Brewers have between mlb and upper minors and then factor in another 1.5 seasons of development for guys further down the farm, I dont see why anyone would want to give Woodruff a contract to rehab all of next season and maybe be good enough to win a roster spot in 2028. He has been a great Brewer - its obvious his best days on the mound are behind him. If he wants to keep trying to play, wish him the best after this season ends and move on.

obvious that Murph wants lefties in the lineup as much as possible despite Peralta's career platoon splits being pretty much identical....and he's ok with a weaker OF defense with Miz on the mound likely striking a ton of Mets out. As for Yelich leading off and DH-ing....I'm not a fan of either, so that means he probably has 3 hits and a bomb tonight.

Yes, agreed on all points - if VAR is going to be applied to offsides calls in soccer, then an attacking player needs to be completely clear of any defender to be offsides. This isn't the NFL where the goal line and all line to gain markers are set across the entire field at the start of each play. The moving offsides line based on where defenders move to during play shouldn't create gift offsides calls when an attacker has one of his hands offsides while the rest of that player is onsides. And there has to be a limit to what VAR can initiate on non-calls being put under review that stops play and alters goals scored. The goal Egypt had taken off their ledger against Argentina for a foul that wasn't called on the exact opposite side of the pitch from where Egypt's counter attack led to a goal was absurd - and the VAR official likely only takes that to review because the Argentinean team of thugs threw a hissy fit about the call in effort to stay in the game. They wound up coming back against a turtling Egyptian squad and winning, kudos to that, but they once again showed their true colors after the Final ended yesterday. It's one thing for VAR to look at called fouls to determine if they warrant a red card, but I dislike non-calls being subject to review because so often what happens in super slow motion doesn't take into account the flow or intent of a play (exactly the Balogun play which wasn't called a foul, that resulted in a VAR red card).

The Cubs could throw their literal kitchen sink of prospects at Detroit, and multiple other teams could outbid them simply by upping their ante from one of their B level prospects to an A level one. If the Tigers wind up trading Skubal, it won't be to the Cubs

No way I'm dealing Sproat - if you're thinking it would take some combination of that type of 5 players I think you're way overvaluing 2 months + playoffs of Skubal....and I think he is an arm worth overpaying for on a rental this particular year.....part of that calculus has to do with keeping him off your main postseason rival's roster but also giving the team it's best chance to win a WS the season before what feels like alot of uncertainty with how the financial and personnel control playing fields will be changing.