Fear The Chorizo
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Everything posted by Fear The Chorizo
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Thames to DL.....Woodruff recalled from AAA
Fear The Chorizo replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Chacin won't start against the Cubs this weekend, and Guerra has a 0.56 ERA in 3 starts...sure it's not directed 100% towards Suter, but everyone knows that's the first matchup they looked at. So why not start Woodruff that game and shift Suter into the longman role where he probably belongs? I will say that with both Woodruff and Suter up in Milwaukee, another bad start from Suter and he's probably out of the rotation. With both Woodruff and Suter stretched out the time to make a change like that would be in the next week or so. -
Thames to DL.....Woodruff recalled from AAA
Fear The Chorizo replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Citing the upcoming Cub series as a reason to have Woodruff in the pen basically means they are expecting Suter to get shelled once again Friday...if that's the case, why not have Woodruff make that start? There's no way he shouldn't be starting games over Suter right now. Bummer for Thames - hopefully he's back healthy at some point before July, and by then guys like Santana have picked up the slack in a big way. I'm hopeful this shifts Braun to more of the everyday 1B gig, keeps Yelich in LF where his defense has its best value, and gives Santana regular ABs in RF where he can either get going or completely disappoint us this season. There shouldn't be any more OF/1B logjam excuses now - unless you're Broxton or Phillips... -
1b/OF log jam as an offensive strategy
Fear The Chorizo replied to TJseven7's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
If Thames goes on the DL, they don't need Choi up - I'd rather go with Phillips or adding another pen arm (Lopez or Houser). Vogt is getting closer, too - he'd provide another LH bench bat after he'd send Bandy out not too long from now. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that the MRI doesn't reveal something that needs surgery or a long DL stint. My hope if Thames does hit the DL is that it opens up more consistent ABs for Santana to finally get going - and aside from the RH/LH hitting difference the offense doesn't miss a beat. -
Brewers are now 9th in team ERA and 13th in team OPS - not the only pitching and offensive indicators, but other counting stats are tricky to compare across MLB with the variation in games played to date. That's solid balance, albeit a good portion of which was improved on the backs of some inferior competition. On the flip side, dead last in errors and FLD % across MLB - which I was expecting to see given the putrid team defense pretty much all season long. Would be great to get that aspect of the game out of the gutter...
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If Suter isn't effective as a starter in Milwaukee, I'd rather have him down in AAA continuing to start games as injury insurance, and identify a different pitcher to serve as the pen's designated long man/makeup guy. I think Jorge Lopez, Miley, or Drake should fill that spot, so Suter can stay stretched out and not potentially be yo-yo'ed around between a MLB starter or long reliever. Another option to consider is whether Davies isn't long for the Brewer rotation should his uneven performances continue - he's only going to get more expensive as he approaches free agency, and if there are SP options in the organization who are more talented and younger I wouldn't be surprised if Davies is part of a trade package. Gotta remember he was brought in by Melvin, not Stearns, via trade. Plus Davies' agent is Boras - meaning there's little chance the Brewers can get Davies on a team friendly contract that buys out his first free agent year, and once he reaches free agency there's pretty much no chance the Brewers resign him. Given surplus starting pitching depth and continued success of Guerra, if Nelson appears to be coming back strong between now and the trade deadline he could take Davies' spot in the rotation. I've identified him as a prime trade candidate this offseason, but that schedule could be pushed up a few months.
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The starting pitcher question also needs to factor in 40 man roster management - of all the arms listed in the previous post, only Woodruff, Peralta and Houser are on the current 40 man. So any other pitcher being called up would require removing someone already on it. Miley's current deal basically gives him and the Brewers the time for him to complete his rehab, then determine whether he's in Milwaukee or whether he gets DFA'd - sure he could accept a AAA assignment for the Brewers, but if he's healthy I'd all but guarantee another MLB team will offer him a shot. My gut tells me something happens with the Brewer mlb pitching staff that at least opens up a temporary spot in the rotation or pen for Miley to make a few appearances as a Brewer, but I don't think he's going to be logging heavy innings through September in Milwaukee. The current Brewer 40 man only includes a few players most of us would be comfortable with simply outrighting/removing and receiving nothing in return in order to add a prospect pitcher like Burnes to it. Also, after this season there are talented guys like Modeiros that would need to be added who aren't ready for MLB but would be lost via Rule 5 if left unprotected. To me, Drake, Sogard, Bandy, Choi, and maybe Wilkerson round out that list - when the time comes to add other young arms to the 40-man or get Nelson back on the active roster, I expect to see a few trades where Stearns tries to send some of the veteran AAAA depth to another team for just about anything that could be stashed down at Helena or low A.
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In 2017, Domingo Santana opened the first month of the season hitting 0.197 - he hit 5 dingers and 4 doubles that month, but had a 0.191 BABIP. Others have noted that he's seemingly hit more balls on the ground to open 2018, resulting in an average BABIP (~0.333), but basically zero power numbers. He is still drawing walks and he's always struck out alot - so his approach at the plate hasn't really changed where it's obvious that he's pressing. He'll break out of this and revert to being a positive offensive player for this team before too long. And Perez is not a nice 5th OF when the 40 man roster already includes Braun, Yelich, Cain, Santana, Broxton, Phillips. He's a nice 7th OF option that happens to also play backup IF positions slightly below average defensively. Perez's versatility is what is keeping him in Milwaukee.
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Left off Ortiz because he's one step behind the others in terms of development...and at some point I had to cut off a novel of a post in a game thread when listing pitchers with potential in the organization...it's throughout the systen more so than I can ever remember - I'm as high on Ortiz as anyone, just that he needs more innings and time to be ready for a big league callup.
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Honest question - is there any other mlb contender that potentially has what the brewers do on their way to the big league club pitching wise in the high minors (burnes, woodruff, peralta) and rehabbing from injury (nelson, knebel) that can be simple internal additions once they are healthy? I'm not even mentioning all the other arms down there that appear to be mlb-caliber in relief/spot start roles. At the time a guy like houser was considered the better pitcher the brewers got in that gomez trade over hader.... It's kind of silly the amount of pitching depth the brewers have right now that can at the minimum be effective mlb contributors - without even thinking about trade possibilities. If there is a true frontline starter available at the deadline (which I still think is a hole they need to fill if there is legit motivation to contend in the playoffs), the brewers will have the ammo to go out and get him and probably not miss a beat in terms of controllable pitching depth
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Hader spot was Perez ph in the 7th...
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Suter's mlb rotation days definitely numbered...just too many more talented arms behind him right now, some if which are rehabbing, some who are younger prospects. He is just too hittable...no matter how much you like the guy, he basically needs his best stuff and pinpoint control to provide a chance at a quality start
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Chacin had a good season by his recent standards last year, and even that took him almost two months before he started stringing together a series of good (not great) starts. He's going to always have the occasional blowup game, but when he's going good he's dependable for the quality start definition (6ip, 3 runs or less) that at minimum gives his team a solid shot at winning. Never going to give you a ton of 8ip 1 ER type starts, he's best suited to get you 2.5 - 3 times.through the batting order.
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If Vogt gets back healthy and provides another LH bench bat on games when he's not catching, I kind of like the idea of having Saladino replacing Sogard on the MLB roster if Sogard continues to hit poorly as the season wears on...Saladino is a better version of Sogard as a defender with comparable 'meh' offense for a utility infielder - biggest difference is he hits right handed and Sogard hits left. For now it's nice having options like that already within the organization rather than having to grasp at straws after an injury or performance at the MLB forces the issue.
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http://www.one-quest.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Grimace-Featured.png
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I am grimacing every time I read about a facial expression and apparent hobbly walk around the baseball field by Cain. That horse is dead and buried. We get that cain's grimacy face has sealed the fact he will be dead weight for 4.75 years of the 5 yr contract he just signed. So can we please stop posting it after every time his likeness is captured by a camera on the baseball field? Thank you, Signed, sanity
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free agency didn't kill doubleheaders - air travel and league expansion did. and there's no way bringing back scheduled doubleheaders would ever include weekend dates - owners wouldn't want the revenue hit that would likely occur by playing two games on a prime date (unless they'd be able to sell tickets for a weekend doubleheader that are good for both games at an increased price). I think they'd be better off scheduling the double headers for the series ending midweek. Instead of wrapping up a series on a thursday afternoon before hitting the road or hosting a Friday night game, schedule a day/night doubleheader on a wednesday and have thursday as an offday/travel day. I doubt they'd ever reduce games from 162 back to 154 - however I think if more off days and/or a shorter calendar to get the season in are ever truly prioritized, getting doubleheaders back on the schedule would seem to make the most sense.
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8 games is basically 5% of the season - 4 fewer home games if they split that reduction evenly. For a team like Milwaukee that draws ~30k in attendance on average that's ~120K fewer tickets sold. Also 8 fewer game broadcasts where advertising/marketing revenue vanishes across the league. Based on operating costs and organization business models, loss of 5% of a season's revenues due to fewer games is a huge deal. It'd be like asking NFL owners to reduce their schedule to 15 games - meanwhile they've been trying to get the season to be 18 games long.
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I think it's more just him overreacting to the weird April weather across baseball and realizing how crazy their schedule will be as the season progresses, which has impacted the Cubs more than most any other team - the exception possibly being the Twins. Heck, even the initial 4 games they played the Brewers in Milwaukee only happened without a cancellation because Miller Park had a roof. Plus, he's had a balky back issue already this season. I will say that I like his thoughts on going back to more scheduled doubleheaders - that used to be the norm across MLB, and it would open up alot more off-days for team travel and give MLB the opportunity to condense 162 games on the calendar substantially. They already have the 26th man rule for scheduled doubleheaders, where teams can add an extra player to their active roster on those game days.
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I get that point, but I also think piling up a ton of games later in the season is going to be worse longterm for their talented but thin roster - particularly on the pitching front. Those July-August off days are like gold for MLB teams in that 80-130 game window, and the more games they need to play during that period, the more they're going to have to rely on their biggest weakness (lack of depth). I also think part of why they are struggling early this year by their presumed standard is how uneven their schedule has been to date - tons of rainouts, took them the longest to get a home opener and many of those initial home games were rained/snowed out.
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Lol at the cubs having to postpone another home game due to weather...this is going to impact them alot when their scheduled offdays vanish and scheduled single game dates turn into doubleheaders later this year - going to have to give starts to arms not currently in their rotation, and their options to take those starts are less than sparkling to say the least.
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Always a great start to the 9th with a two run lead...walking the leadoff man
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We might have at least a 6IP start for a Brewer...hope I'm not jinxing it! That would be nice considering the offense is doing its best to keep this a tight game and Hader isn't available today to eat up late innings.
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Villar in and hitting in the order where he needs to be...please CC keep him there through Sunday's game and if you are deadset on starting Sogard give Arcia a game or two off. If Braun can't start tomorrow night's game put him on the DL and get Broxton up here so we can stop seeing Perez getting starts in the OF for a roster that already has 4 everyday OF options on it. Perez is Mr. day to day OF replacer, and what he should be is the backup 3B/2B option who gets maybe 1 start a week...not 5.
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It's also nice to note that the current Brewers starting 5 + Nelson have an overall payroll hit of just under $19M for the 2018 season. The Cubs' current starting 5 sits at ~$78M, with two starters (Lester and Darvish) each making way more than the entire Brewers' rotation + Nelson. With the internal options working their way up through the minors that will take up rotation spots at pre-arbitration MLB salaries, the Brewers' starting pitcher payroll commitment will probably remain in the $20-$30 Million range even with expected salary increases for Nelson, Anderson, and Davies as they near free agency. The Cubs' costs will undoubtedly continue to increase as Hendricks and Quintana's salaries jump in the coming years. No doubt that the Cubs' rotation has the names and overall better track record - however it will be interesting to keep an eye on how 2018 starting staff performances compare. Super early, but the current comparison has the Cubs' rotation averaging 5IP per start with an ERA around 5.3, while Brewers' starters are also averaging 5IP per start but have an ERA around 4.3.
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Overriding rotation concern thus far is how early starters are getting pulled from games - most of the time they are pulled while trailing or tied, but if they are getting 0-1 run of run support over the 1st 5 innings it's not on them. However, over the last week it seems like starters are intentionally being yanked early even when they aren't in huge pitch count or game situation binds - in fact I don't think there have been many games at all thus far where the starter flirted with making 100 pitches. Has to be a plan in place for how to manage the pitching staff through this year. To me it seems like Stearns & Co. are trying to be on the leading edge of valuing their bullpen and giving them as many innings as possible - it could also be based on analysis of their current rotation options having poor results when pitching to a lineup the third time (something pretty much all MLB starters show, but guys like Chacin and Suter are even more pronounced). Having the depth and options at AAA, Nelson and Miley on the mend, etc. would seem to alleviate concerns of relievers getting burned out by having a pile of starters/middle relievers to draw from. If only the offense could start scoring 5-6 runs more consistently things could really get interesting.