Fear The Chorizo

"That's fantastic, especially since it appeared that if he would have had regular playing time, he would have been above-avg. as a rookie. " Or if you're in the camp that doesn't get a tingle up their leg at the mention of the name Gamel, more playing time would have given him more opportunities to strike out, lower that league average 3B OPS number, and be below average defensively. I think the Brewers should have treated Gamel like LaPorta - the kind of prospect who gives a team more value by trading them before they get exposed at the major league level. I think it's sour grapes to blame the manager for a prospect's struggles - last year Macha was clearly not in the mode of an organizational development manager...the Brewers were in 1st place in their division for most of 2009's 1st half. Macha was stuck with 3 guys on the roster playing at 1 position - Hall made all the money and Brewer management probably influenced an undue amount of playing time. McGehee and Gamel got an equal amount of opportunities during the early part of the season - McGehee outperformed Gamel, and the Brewers' sudden pitching implosion forced the Brewers to option Gamel back down to clear roster space. If I'm not mistaken McGehee was out of options and would have almost certainly been claimed by another team had the Brewers opted to keep Gamel in the bigs. I think where the Brewers went wrong was not looking to trade one of Gamel or McGehee this past offseason - something I can definitely see them trying to do with McGehee after this year now that he's established himself, assuming that the Brewers still view Gamel as their 3B or 1B of the near future. Gamel may have gotten a raw deal, but since then he's done nothing to prove just how wrong Macha was for playing a guy with an OPS in the .830's the last two seasons (McGehee) over him. If anything I'd blame Brewers management for a lack of a plan for a guy like Gamel, and give a guy like McGehee credit for taking advantage of his opportunity to establish himself as a major league player.

My wife's originally from Omaha, and I've become pretty familiar with the town - If you're just flying in for one game, I'd recommend staying somewhere near the Old Market area near downtown Omaha. It's close to both the airport and Rosenblatt, and you have quite a few decent dining options. The Hilton Garden Inn in Old Market is a decent hotel for the money. I believe once the new stadium is completed, Rosenblatt is to be demolished and the land will be used for additional parking and an Arctic exhibit for Omaha's Zoo (if you've never been and have time to kill, check it out - it's world class, although summer weather in Omaha makes you want to sit by the air conditioner during the day). I think there may be some sort of memorial constructed remembering the stadium there, too. I'm pretty sure the Omaha Royals may be getting a new smaller stadium constructed for their own use also.

The year the Cubs won 97 games, Hendry picked Edmonds up off waivers when everyone thought he was done and he drastically improved their CF offensive hole. Hendry is rightfully regarded as one of the worst GMs in baseball, but he mined a nugget off waivers when he needed to. If Axford, Estrada, and Kottaras can be used as an example of great nuggets after this small a sample, I think Tampa's GM deserves equal credit for picking up Blalock and dumping Burrell - wasn't Blalock a scrap heap sort of acquisition? I don't think it's saying much to have a GM be great at finding good players off waivers - I think that speaks more to the market and budget a particular GM is working with. Large market teams hardly use waivers because they have the resources to acquire players in high demand. I give Melvin props for finding the nuggets he has over the years, but there are few GMs who have to use MiLB free agency/waivers to consistently fill out their major league roster. Many of the other GM's potential "nuggets" are currently playing in AAA and serving as insurance should the major league team need depth for injuries. Also, after 8 years with the Brewers, does it really speak well of Melvin that he needs to continue acquiring other teams' fodder for his major league roster when 8 years is plenty of time to build quality depth throughout an organization? The reason he's recently had to use the players he's scanned waivers for is because of the bad free agent deals he's made that have opened huge holes on the big league roster (Hall could/should still be at 3rd/CF, Riske is paid like an elite setup guy, Suppan is just an organizational anchor at this point, Hoffman and Davis' deals have been anything but good to this point).

Dave Bush is just unlucky - unlucky that he has to face major league hitters on a consistent basis.

I wish more people obsessed with stats would spend more time emphasizing that if you're at either end of that spectrum in any metric, there's alot more than good/bad luck that put them there. The Brewers are essentially near the bottom 1/4th of every single pitching-defensive metric in all of baseball - they might be unlucky to currently have the worst statistical numbers compared to some of the other bottom feeders, but it's not like they're 1-2 funny hops away from being good, or even average. The upside of the Brewers' pitching staff with great luck is slightly below average with this current defense. When that's all they can optimistically be, it's pointless to argue semantics.

As logan pointed out HRs aren't part of BABIP as they aren't technically a ball in play because a position player doesn't have to field the ball because it left the field of play. Wow, so a pitcher can have a low BABIP while getting absolutely shelled, as long as the best hit balls against him are home runs? Doesn't BABIP become a less effective stat to evaluate pitchers who give up alot of HR's then? Can't we just use BAA (batting average against)? That at least includes the worst and best outcomes a pitcher can allow (HR or K) and can still help illustrate crappy defense. By the way, Brewers are dead last in MLB for BAA, too. I would also argue that a good percentage of home runs should not be categorized as flyballs, but I'm not going to continue beating my head against a wall. I guess the "in play, runs" phrase from MLB Gameday shouldn't apply to a HR.

3 teams have a worse BB/9 than we do, 8 have a worse K/BB than we do. 10 have a worse xFIP than we do but only 2 have a worse FIP. We have the highest BABIP against and 2nd highest HR/9 in the league. Some of it is likely bad luck given just how high the BABIP is but most of it is just bad pitching and really bad defense so far. Wouldn't having an extremely high HR/9 also significantly increase BABIP without any sort of luck factored in? I mean, how unlucky can a pitcher be if he's giving up 450' blasts? I totally agree the defense has been woeful and is playing a big role, too - I think the issue I have is how luck continues to be an excuse or explanation for this mess. I think the combination of bad defense (balls finding more holes that shouldn't be hits) and bad pitching (walks, homeruns allowed and no positive pitching stat showing the Brewers in the top 1/2 of MLB) completely overshadow any "bad luck" the Brewers may have had thus far this season. You can say a pitcher's unlucky due to seeing eye singles, but if defensive metrics are actually good at measuring defensive ability, it should be expected that Brewer BABIP should be high compared to league averages. Add the fact that Brewer pitching as a whole is bad (HR/9, poor walk rates, etc) and there's the explanation for a high staff BABIP. Other stats show the Brewers have the worst WHIP in all of baseball, the 3rd worst SLG% against in all of baseball, and the worst OPS% against in all of baseball. It's obvious that most everything's related, and none of it's any good. At all.

I'm right there with you, Beast Light - a collection of #4-#5 type starters doesn't make a good rotation even if they're pitching to their career statistical expectations. In a vacuum, all their numbers combine to form what looks like a respectable rotation. In reality, if there's no dominant starter(s) anchoring the rotation and consistently giving a team great starts, the burden a bunch of #4-#5 type starters puts on a bullpen leads to the whole thing blowing up. The bullpen gets overtaxed by having to pitch too many innings, and then the manager tries to keep mediocre starters in longer to save the pen, and they get exposed the 3rd and 4th time through a lineup. Since both the Brewer pen and rotation are bad, it's like the blind leading the blind off a cliff.

the only bad luck Hoffman's had to this point is that major league stadiums don't have 450' power alleys...that's about the only way he'd get his BABIP down at this point. Doug Davis is allowing just about 2 hitters per inning on base, with only a small percentage of that tied to any perceived bad luck - he's been horrible this season, and the only reason his sabermetric stats look decent is because they're being compared to the rest of the horrible Brewer pitching staff. For all the bad luck Davis may have had, he's also had his moments when he's been rocked and was lucky to get out of innings without further damage. Frankly, luck evens out, and you make your own luck.

Yeah, but by using the 3 year statistical pile of data Hoffman's accrued, he's still fine, right? At 42, or however old Hoffman is, I don't think the Brewers should have the patience to wait until Hoffman "figures it out"...even if he's not done for his career, he should be done as a Brewer.

I'm not giving the bad defense a complete pass on this, but last I checked nobody from that bad infield defense had walked anybody. I understand that giving teams extra outs definitely elevates pitch counts, but IMO the bigger problem is having a pitching staff full of guys who appear to be nibbling too much because they're not confident in their stuff being good enough to get guys out. I'll acknowledge the defense has let the Brewers down this year, but far too often it happens after a pitcher's already walked somebody, which really leads to big innings and high pitch counts.

Davis's FIP is 4.62 his xFIP is 4.68 with GB% of 50.9 and LD% of 18.2. So yes its luck for Davis. But for the Brewers its having a terrible defensive infield. Not to mention Davis's stuff is below league average, so he's unlucky with that, too. Facts are that he's got a WHIP of 1.98, thrown 3 wild pitches, hit 3 batters, and has a 0.418 on base average against. A pitcher like Davis can be decent with a great defense behind him, but on this Brewer team that stinks at defense, a pitcher like Davis is useless because he can't get himself out of trouble consistently. Another question, if Davis wasn't "unlucky", what do all his secondary statistical numbers profile him to be? A 1.50 WHIP pitcher with an ERA around 5 that still can't get past the 6th inning in a game? Hooray for that upside! I think the member of the Brewers organization that is the most unlucky is Ken Macha - he has to try and manage a pitching staff full of unfulfilled potential and washed up veterans. I'm not a fan of Macha, but I think he's gotten a raw deal to this point here - he took over a team with a relatively potent offense fresh off a playoff appearance largely due to awesome starting pitching. Problem was that the awesome starting pitching was no longer on the roster, and it was replaced with a big bag of bad.

The rotation is only missing an ace like pitcher in the rotation. That's like saying the only thing a great bar/nightclub is missing is women.

I think managers are an extremely overrated aspect of a baseball team. There are qualities that you'd like to see them have, but when it's all said and done a manager has to have a talented team in order to be good at winning baseball games. I think a reason many Brewer fans have disliked/despised Brewer managers over the years is because they've had to manage a poorly constructed roster given to them by management who's hamstrung by their budget.

That's the description of a bad baseball team - Great teams are solid in all areas of their roster, and are good enough to overcome the occasional hiccup by any individual performance. They'll still lose their share of games, but they minimize prolonged struggles with the next day's great starting pitcher or a relentless offensive lineup. Good teams are solid in most areas of their roster with one or two weaknesses that cost them more winnable games than great teams lose. A weak setup man or #4-5 starters make it difficult to string together long winning streaks, but other parts of the team continue to produce and keep the ship from sinking. Bad teams have weaknesses/inconsistency everywhere on their roster, which leads to the mentalities of 'what can go wrong, will go wrong' and 'what will cause the wheels to come off tonight?' Teams without solid starting pitching, a dependable bullpen, and solid defense end up treating each game like a minefield, with the feeling that disaster's just around the corner...more often than not, at least one of the issues either prevents a win or causes undue stress on the other facets of the game - too much of that over time is what leads to crappy baseball over 162 games. It's still too early to make a definitive conclusion that the 2010 Brewers are a bad baseball team - however, glaring issues with their pitching staff (both starters and relievers), and defense (near the MLB lead for errors thus far) need to be addressed. I'm not going to complain too much about an offense that's scoring runs like crazy on occasion. So far this season, there hasn't been much difference between the 2010 and 2009 Brewers, IMO. I just don't think they have enough pitching to be a better than .500 baseball team.

He was hitting 95-96mph on the stadium gun last night and his slider is starting to get vertical tilt and look very much like the filth that came out of his left arm a few years ago...and I would guess that if the Brewers had asked for Liriano in return for Hardy in a trade this offseason, Twins management would have laughed for about an hour before hanging up the phone. His numbers didn't bear it out last season, but the Twins knew better than anyone where Liriano was in his recovery from surgery. Structurally everything was fine, but he spent all last year building his arm back up - since he's been looking progressively better with each start he makes, I think that barring additional injuries, he'll get back to being dominant again, if he isn't already.

I know it's a waste of 12.5 Million bucks, but I think the way the Brewers can maximize Suppan's value to the Brewers is to trade Suppan for nothing or just dump him off the roster and bring up Stetter, or Braddock. What's the point of keeping Suppan on the roster because management gave him a crazy contract? That just ends up hurting the team more that dropping him, eating the cash, and allowing other pitchers who have a much better chance to be effective in the bullpen pitch for the Brewers. When the best you can hope for a veteran pitcher who's making 12Million bucks is an ERA between 5-6 with a bunch of hard hit balls right at defenders, it's time to pull the plug entirely.

Exhibit B should be a Jeff Suppan or Carlos Silva - perfect examples of why teams are reluctant to continue offering multiyear deals with huge, backloaded money for mediocrity...you could throw a collection of AAAA-type pitchers together to get the same production Suppan will most likely give the Brewers this year, at less than 1M salary total. I think contracts spiraled out of control in large part due to steroids - MLB veterans were getting juiced up and artificially prolonging their prime years well into their mid-late 30's. Since they were all post-arby's, free agency completely blew up with the big market teams willing to pay a king's ransom for the productive juicers (probably a big reason why so many who have been linked to roids were Yankees/red sox/dodgers.) The recent decline in player salaries has so much more to do with teams going back to younger rosters that are under team control, and older players trending back to normal regression.

Here's a slightly different take on the discussion of who hits 1-2...why not bump Braun and Fielder up to hit 2-3, then slide Gomez down to the 9-hole and hit the pitcher 8th? You get more AB's for Braun and Fielder, plus you give Weeks more RBI opportunities from the leadoff spot with a guy like Gomez hitting 9th. Gomez's OBP won't justify him hitting in the 2 hole or leadoff, but when he's on base, Weeks is an ideal guy to hit after him to give Gomez opportunities to steal bases. don't get me wrong - this lineup would look alot better with a better offensive option than Hart/Edmunds playing right field and hitting behind Fielder. Jermaine Dye from a few years ago would look great there. Weeks Braun Fielder Hart/Edmunds McGehee Escobar Zaun Pitcher Gomez On days when Gomez isn't playing you could slide Escobar in the 9 hole and play around with the 5-6-7 spots with Hart/Edmunds/Catcher. Batting the pitcher higher than 9th doesn't make sense in most cases, but the offensive pieces the Brewers have make for an interesting possibility - they have a few young guys with speed and low OBP who you can't count on at the top of the order, but when they do get on base you'd love to have the big boppers up to try and drive them in.

I'm fine with this trade - I think too many people around here are trying to factor in J.J. Hardy from the 07, 08 seasons and completely discounting his pathetic 09 year to say the Brewers got jobbed. Gomez isn't going to hit 25 HR a year like Cameron, but he's still young enough to develop into a good offensive player to compliment his excellent outfield defense and speed. Gomez is 23 going on 24...J.J. Hardy's first significant big league experience came at the same age - the additional value Gomez has with the amount of years under Brewers' control also weighs heavily with this trade, along with the significant cost savings that can be used for adding pitching to a staff that was horrible last season. Hardy and Gomez are at two totally different stages in their careers - frankly, there wasn't a spot on the Brewers for Hardy to play in 2010, and his value was much less than many on this board assumed. To me, he's Bobby Crosby part two.

So what's Pujols or Fielder's current WAR values? 150 and 135 million? To say Hardy has been worth 6.5 million this season is hilarious - are WAR values based on everyone having a Yankees payroll? Maybe they need to come up with something like BEWARE - Bad Economic WAR Evaluation. Or TUPPERWARE - Totally Unrealistic Player Pricing Except Really Wild Agent's Raise Expectations.

when was the last time Boras represented one of the top potential free agents to be and let him sign an extension prior to him reaching free agency? He had Arod opt out of the largest deal in history just to get him extended, and that was done while he was already playing for the Yankees! Fielder will not be a Brewer beyond the 2011 season, and I think Melvin's most important decision has to be whether it's better for the franchise to keep him for two more seasons and get his production during both of them, or determine the best time to trade him in order to maximize the return of talent to improve the team beyond 2011. while Fielder's among the best offensive corner infielders in the game, 1B is a relatively easy position to get offensive production from. I think the Brewers may be best served to see what kind of return they could get for Fielder this offseason - his trade value will never be higher, as the team getting him would get two years of control (with one of his arby years being a certain cost). If trading Fielder can net the Brewers a frontline starting pitcher plus additional talent, I think they have to consider making the move before 2010, or possibly at next year's deadline if the right situation exists. I don't see how this team can radically improve its pitching staff without such a trade.

The Yankees may not be willing to sign Fielder, but the Red Sox sure as heck will be...along with the Angels, Cubs (D Lee's deal will be up close to when Fielder's a FA), White Sox, Orioles, and any other large market team that doesn't have an offensive stud at 1B/DH in the AL a few years from now. Fielder's worth a LOT more than what the Brewers can afford in free agency - Boras will never let Fielder have any of his free agent years bought out, because he knows the long-term risks a player with Fielder's body type carries. Boras is going to have Fielder cash in as much as possible when he's a free agent the first time, because the odds are that he won't get a big second payday once he's on the wrong side of 30. The Brewers gave Fielder this two year deal to get some cost certainty leading up to his last arby year, and I think he either gets dealt during next offseason for a boatload of prospects/pitching, or they keep him through 2011 and pick up the type A draft picks for letting him walk. For as good as he is, there's no way a team with the Brewers' payroll can afford to pay Fielder what he's worth to a large market team in need of a lefthanded thumper in the middle of a lineup.

and knowing that after next season there's a chance a team like the Red Sox could swoop him and offer him a bigger deal than the Orioles will want to match? After the 2008 season that Hardy's had, I don't see a team like the Red Sox swooping in anytime soon to overpay for Hardy...I think that while Hardy had very good seasons in 2006 and 2007 for a shortstop, his lack of athleticism will force him off that position as he ages, and his inconsistent offense is really going to have an impact on how much he can expect to earn in free agency. I used to be a proponent of playing Hardy at 3rd once Escobar was up, but Hardy's offense isn't good enough to play there everyday. Regardless of what the Brewers intent was to send him to the minors (and I think it was strictly performance-based, and to see if he can straighten himself out), it's never a positive to have a guy approaching his free agent year get demoted to the minors - I don't think an extra year of control will offset Hardy's lost value based on his 2008 performance.

Only if he gets on base. sorry, forgot to account for all the unwanted baseclogging of Hardy and Kendall's .300 and .315 OBP's respectively.