Fear The Chorizo

Last I heard, Sheets wouldn't need surgery, just time. I never heard how long but I guess I didn't picture him being able to groove 95 MPH fastballs on January 6th. Sheets wasn't grooving anything close to 95 mph since around the all star break. I don't want to play conspiracy theorist, but his situation screams for a problematic injury to be covered up - FA pitcher looking to cash in, took a painkilling shot that nobody found out about until he simply wasn't able to keep taking the ball every 5th day, Brewers team had no reason to report the extent or recovery timetable for this injury - I'd all but guarantee that if 2008 wasn't the last year of his deal, the Brewers would have pushed to DL him for significant time during the 2nd half of last season if it meant a better chance of him being 100% in 2009. I'm not actually saying he's covering a significant injury up, but to this point there's been little to suggest otherwise. When a guy who's injured more often than Sheets (Burnett) signs an 80 million-plus longterm deal, something fishy's in the water when Sheets can't even get an offer close to it. There's still plenty of players out waiting the market out. Those players aren't comparable to Sheets, who if he's healthy is in the prime of his career and is a legit #1 starting pitcher. The two other free agents who fit that bill (Sabathia, and Burnett - who really shouldn't be considered an ace) signed for big time money early on in free agency.

On XM yesterday, a reporter for the Sun Times said that the De Rosa deal for minor league pitching, the signing of Miles as a significantly cheaper replacement, this deal with Bradley, then a trade of Marquis to Colorado(with the Cubs picking up a bunch of that salary) are pre-cursor moves to the Peavy talks being rekindled. I must admit, it sounded pretty smart, and as a Brewer fan I did not like it one bit. That all makes sense except all the money they saved by dealing DeRosa and Marquis has been eaten up by Vizcaino and Bradley's contracts - they still don't have much of anything in their farm system that the Padres would consider moving Peavy for. I would be more worried about a Peavy trade if the Cubs had gotten a better return for trading DeRosa and didn't sign Bradley.

to this point in the offseason, the Cubs have done nothing that will improve their team - honestly, the moves they've made to this point put them in a worse spot than they were last season.

DeRosa just got traded to the Indians, too - only thing that makes this series of moves by the Cubs sane is if the package of players they get back for DeRosa gets added to Fontenot/Cedeno + a few prospects in a trade for Peavy. If the move is a straight salary dump - replace DeRosa with Miles or Fontenot/Cedeno at 2nd, the Cubs just got worse. looking at the prospects involved with the Derosa/Indians deal, and I don't see them being part of a Peavy deal at all...nothing special. If anything, this trade and a possible trade of Marquis to the Rockies frees up money for the Cubs to sign Milton Bradley, who I would assume would be their centerfielder (and not a good one defensively at that).

I know this would be somewhat complicated, but there are plenty of bean counters to figure it out... Why not share TV revenues between the teams based on who they play - for example, instead of the YES network basically putting all profits back to the Yankees alone, why not split the profits 50/50? 1/2 of the revenue generated (which is still massive) would go to the Yankees, and the other 1/2 would be split up amongst their opponents, based on the number of games they played against them? The same model could be used for every other team and its TV deal. It's the TV money that kills the financial competitive balance in baseball. Also, there has to be a better system to award compensatory draft picks for departing free agents. My proposal would be to get rid of the compensatory rounds entirely, and instead have an independent entity put together a list or system of determining Type A, B "prospects" from each organization's minor leagues. The team that loses a Type A or B free agent would be able to choose a prospect from the other organization's list. This way, a small market team who loses out on resigning a quality player would have a better opportunity to get a quality player in return, someone who could contribute at the major league level much sooner than a draft choice. Also, this would cause the large market teams to think twice about throwing the bank at every free agent out there, because they'd risk gutting their farm system - that could curb escalating player salaries. To prevent big market teams from simply gutting their farm system while pursuing free agents, if the independent entity doesn't feel that a team has any Type A or B prospects in its system, they can't participate in free agency that particular offseason.

I'd take 20 starts from Sheets over 30 starts form a guy like Suppan any day. Give him a 2 year with a club option, and lets get our rotation magnitudes better. Magnitudes better for those 20 starts, then magnitudes worse for 10 starts when the Brewers would have to send a AAAA scrub to the mound to try and give them 5 innings before proceeding to burn up a bullpen that's already stressed because of a lack of deep starts by Parra, Suppan, etc. Suffering from 10 missed starts is one thing, but then crippling the rest of the staff because of those missed starts makes me wonder if the Brewers would be better off with another 2 starting pitchers of the caliber of Dave Bush - something I think they could acquire while spending close to the same amount on Sheets. As their rotation currently sets up, even if Sheets is resigned there's still a hole at the #5 rotation spot and uncertainty in the bullpen, which the Brewers wouldn't be able to spend money on to improve if they give all their budgeted dollars to Sheets. If Sheets hasn't gotten ANY multiyear offers at this point in the offseason, there has to be a ton of concern about his elbow, not to mention his injury history that reads like a Web MD index. I'd be willing to roll the dice on Sheets with an offer similar to what you propose, but only if the dollars are similar to what his last contract was. I really think that most teams are going to tighten up the purse strings over the next few seasons, which definitely includes being leery about guaranteeing multiyear money to guys who have shown that they can't stay healthy.

If a closer can't throw strikes consistently and control his stuff, he won't be closer very long. at some points during the last two years of Turnbow, I think he would have blown saves/leads if the opponent simply headed to the plate without a bat. Difference between Coco in 2007 and Turnbow - Coco would pound the strike zone to get 2 strikes on the hitter, then continually fire his fastball/slider combo towards the outside corner, causing many hitters to chase balls out of the zone. When he wasn't getting ahead in the count hitters spit on those pitches.

It is frustrating that Melvin is not considering Sheets as an option Isn't it also possible that teams are spot on when looking at Sheets' injury history and saying no thanks to long term deals? If the Yankees, who are essentially they only team throwing crazy money at pitching this offseason (and with plenty more to throw) want no part of Sheets and a multi-year deal, his injury report reads probably a lot scarier than what many on this board think. I wish nothing but the best for Sheets, but I'll stand by my position that we got the best years of Sheets' career while he was a Brewer - the unfortunate break for him was that while he was at his best, the Brewers flat out stunk. Having a pitcher of Sheets' caliber in your organization for 9-10 years is saying alot for a small market team. Pitching is still at such a premium across baseball, even if teams are worried about shelling out money this offseason - the fact that Sheets has been a free agent for over a month, through the winter meetings, and still hasn't gotten a multiyear deal leads me to think teams view him as damaged goods. Medical reports are one thing - has he thrown for anyone to show his injury at the end of this last season is fine now?

Unfortunately for Sheets he's going to be asked if he can stay healthy wherever he pitches, since the facts are that he didn't make it though a full season during the past four years. It's not like if he signs with the Rangers or somewhere else that he's suddenly going to be cured of all his past health problems.

I love how ESPN got it wrong this morning by saying the deal was completed, and wrong again this afternoon by saying the deal was dead.

Doug's probably had his head screwed on straight the entire time, it's the assumed reporting prowess of ESPN that caused many here to push the preemptive panic button. There was never any confirmation to a 1 for 1 trade involving Cameron and Cabrera. I think a trade will still happen, but it may take awhile for all the particulars to line up - instead of the Brewers paying money to the Yankees to get Kennedy, Hughes, or other, some sort of mishmash of marginal prospects may get exchanged that the two teams agree even value out.

Melvin has no leverage to get what he wants. Cameron in this market where some very good hitters are still unsigned is not a $10 million dollar player. Other than the Yankees who's out there interested in him? Apparently nobody. I think that the leverage the Brewers have is that the Yankees just signed a guy for 7 seasons and 161 mildo who happens to be close friends with Cameron, and who probably has expressed interest for the Yankees to acquire him. It was obvious that the Yankees bid against themselves in order to convince CC to sign with them, and odds are they made some sort of concession that they would actively pursue Cameron. The idea of the Brewers needing to pay the Yankees in order to get one of their inexpensive pitching prospects is exactly what's wrong with baseball's economics - but, it's probably an option the Brewers need to explore if they have a shot at getting Hughes, IMO.

I think everyone's too quick to assume this is a 1 for 1 deal - when the sources saying so are ESPN-related, it's always a good idea to pause and revisit the story several hours later, after team sources give their input to someone that doesn't have to come up with a story full of assumptions before the morning sportscenter wraps up. Keep in mind Buster Olney was a Yankee beat writer, and just posted what is essentially an obituary of the Brewers on his blog. Shoot, if the money issue the Brewers are willing to pay in this trade is key to how good an arm they get in addition to Cabrera, pay Cameron's salary and tell the Yankees to give them Hughes along with Melky.

I posted this in a transaction rumors thread yesterday: I think a trade involving Cameron and Hall to the Yankees for Melky Cabrera and Hughes (+ or - spare minor league parts on either side) would be possible if the FA starting pitcher spree brings 3 new arms to the Yankees. Since it appears that a trade involving Cameron and Cabrera is being worked on, I'm looking for it to get expanded to include Hall and a young Yankee arm that isn't going to have a prayer to break into a potential rotation of Sabathia, Wang, Burnett, Chamberlain, and Lowe/Sheets. by the way, if the Yankees rotation is what I posted above on opening day next season, the rest of baseball may as well be contracted, because that is disgustingly good. While Cameron for Cabrera straight up is bad for this season, it doesn't look so bad when accounting for team control of Cabrera for future seasons, increased payroll flexibility by trading away a 36-yr old, 10 million dollar player, and the potential that this trade could also bring a major league-ready, pre-arby arm into the mix.

"But I see no special jumps to his progress that merits believing that he won't struggle as a 22 year old in his first season in AAA especially given his lack of plate discipline and power. I see no reason to believe he can outperform Hardy next year. " Since J.J. Hardy has been playing everyday in the majors for several seasons, and since only a minute percentage of prospects even sniff AAA at 22, that's not exactly a bold statement. Using statistical analysis to project major leaguers is fine, but in Escobar's case it doesn't make sense to me when the numbers used are from developmental seasons when he was basically learning how to hit and started well behind the curve offensively. When basically every scout echoes the sentiment that he's improving, and that all he needs is more time to develop offensively and grow into his frame, I could care less about what he did as a 19 year old in high A ball. I don't think Hardy should be traded this offseason to make room for Escobar in Milwaukee because that would definitely be rushing Escobar, but I think there's a good chance of a trade/position change for J.J. by opening day 2010. Escobar won't ever be Braun offensively, but considering his defensive value he doesn't have to in order to be considered a big-time prospect.

Since CC is officially a Yankee, it wouldn't surprise me if trade talks heat up between the Yanks and Brewers that involve Cameron and/or Bill Hall. I also think that if the Yankees are serious about acquiring 3 starting pitchers in free agency (Sabathia, Lowe, and Sheets/Burnett), that guys like Kennedy and even Hughes lose some of their value to the Yanks, since there wouldn't be a rotation spot for them to pitch in. I think a trade involving Cameron and Hall to the Yankees for Melky Cabrera and Hughes (+ or - spare minor league parts on either side) would be possible if the FA starting pitcher spree brings 3 new arms to the Yankees.

Sheets is going to leave because the team hasnt treated him well at all. Melvin has made no sincere efforts to keep Ben and that will turn out to be a huge mistake. So that 4 year contract extension that Melvin signed Sheets to (at the time the largest deal in team history, and something they had basically never done before as a small market team) wasn't a sincere effort to keep Ben? Honestly if it wasn't for Melvin and Mark A., Sheets would have been gone 3-4 seasons ago, and quite frankly the Brewers would have never acquired C.C. since the Brewers still wouldn't be close to contending. I'm pretty confident in saying that the Brewers got Sheets' best years of his career - that's about all an organization with the payroll limitations the Brewers have can ask for when managing their roster. Unfortunately for him his best seasons came when the Brewers flat out stunk on ice, and he's been riddled with injuries and ailments that have prevented him from playing a significant role in the few playoff races the Brewers have been a part of. I wish Sheets lots of luck whenever he doesn't pitch against the Brewers.

Santo put up HOF caliber numbers during the prime of his career for a third baseman - the problem is his career didn't last long enough IMO to be a hall of famer. I also don't think he helped his case too much in the eyes of the veterans' committee by being an arrogant clown when he played, and I have no remorse for a guy who pimps himself to achieve financial gain with documentaries targeting the pity of others. It should be a great enough story that a guy with his health issues was able to play baseball at an all-star caliber level, and that he's had such a long career around baseball. Last I checked the Hall of Fame isn't the hall of really good, even if the really good currently are disabled.

It's starting to become obvious that the current state of the economy is going to play a big role in how teams approach offseason acquisitions. Other than a few teams resigning their own, or giving small deals to marginal players, next to nothing's happened this offseason. Even though it's a pretty decent free agent group of players, aside from the best of the best I think there won't be many free agents who get deals on par with what recent offseasons have had. Since next to no teams are doing anything significant at this point, I have no problem with the Brewers joining the rest of them and sitting on their hands for awhile longer. Julio's not that bad of a signing for what they got him for.

I wonder if Fielder and Boras now realize that had they taken the offer the Brewers made to him, he'd probably have earned much more money over 2008-2011 than he will by attempting to take contracts year-to-year through arby. Granted, a season or two of free agency may have been bought out with the Brewers' extension, but he's got to realize that unless he gets his weight under control, there won't be many teams offering him 5+ year deals when he finally does become a free agent.

Maybe his low BABIP had more to do with him hitting nothing but weak grounders and popups because he was completely off balance swinging the bat than being unlucky - I live in Chicago and watched a ton of Cub games...there was nothing unlucky with his numbers. And once pitchers realized how to pitch him and attack him with strikes, his walk rate and OBP plummeted, too. I want no part of Fukudome on the Brewers. Defensively he's good, but he's also on the wrong side of 30...I'd equate him to a slower version of Tony Gwynn Jr, with a better arm from the outfield.

The lovefest with Bill hall came largely after his 35-hr year that he played mainly as a SS - that season has proven to be the aberration in his career stats. Hindsight's always 20/20, but imagine what the Brewers could have gotten via trade for him after that season, before they gave him his current contract? As for Corey Hart, I think he'll be ok - Kapler's injury forced the Brewers to run Hart out there every day even though he was struggling and looked like he needed time off to clear his head and rest a bit. Escobar is definitely not ready offensively to play in the majors next season, but I'm not ruling him out of playing in Milwaukee starting in 2010 - he's played against older, more developed competition during his entire minor league career. Let's see what he can do in AAA as a 21-22 year old. I think if he continues to fill into his frame the power will come (he did have a decent # of HR last year, correct?) - his big concern needs to be plate discipline. He's got to draw more walks and get on base with his speed.

Fielder has regressed physically - there's no arguing that. He was stealing double digit bases in the minor leagues - not a speed guy by any means, but he could run very well for a big guy. I think he hasn't gained that much weight, but the weight he's gained isn't good weight - guys his size don't need to bulk up or get stronger, and he should realize that keeping weight off is crucial to his career long-term. I wonder what happened to the nutitionist he worked with leading up to and shortly after getting drafted - Just because he get's a year older doesn't mean it should be expected of him to gain another 10-15 lbs. Defensively, Fielder was never going to be great, but IMO he was a much better defender two seasons ago - his range was never good, but he at least caught balls that were hit/thrown at him, and he was pretty respectable at digging throws out of the dirt. I think the 50-HR year got into his head, and he spent the past offseason regressing. While Fielder's weight doesn't directly relate to his power drop last season, I think it indicates a poor work ethic on his part - the most important thing to a professional athlete is the condition of his body. When the only thing keeping Fielder from making 100's of millions of dollars during his career is a weight issue, why not do something about it? Also, it's tough to take an extra 50 swings in the batting cage or take extended fielding practice when you're shoving donuts in your face instead. He's got all the natural ability in the world to be a great player - but he's a waste if he doesn't put the hard work in to improve his physical condition and improve areas of his game that he struggles in.

Since Hart, Hardy, and Fielder are all entering their first year of arby, they will get big raises, but they won't be breaking the bank just yet - a 1 year option for Cameron makes sense for this roster, and his 10 Million can be used during the offseason of 2009 to offset the salary increases of the arby players. Plus, I don't see any way that all of the current players reaching arby stay with the Brewers - some of them will be traded to make room for guys coming through the minor leagues. For 2009, look at it as Cameron getting Gagne's 10 Million from the previous year. I'd really like bringing in Edmonds to provide starts in center and right field, especially against righthanded pitching. He'd be a good lefty bat off the bench in a pinch-hit role, too.

I wouldn't mind bringing in a guy like Edmonds and using him as a CF/RF platoon-mate for when Hart or Cameron slump, or when the Brewers are facing tons of righthanded pitching. I don't think Edmonds should be an everyday player anymore, but for the right price he'd be exactly what the Brewers need on their bench. Add Kapler as the 5th OF on this roster, and that's a very solid group of outfield personnel that can also double as good pinch hit options if you ask me.