Fear The Chorizo

Except it did happen. Escobar's OPS this year is just 762, down from 797 last year. The jump from AAA to MLB is much bigger than the jump from AA to AAA. 35 OPS points lower is a freefall? That's what, 4-5 walks and three doubles difference in about 400 AB's? I understand it's different levels, but I also consider MLE's to be a joke, especially when you're trying to project a guy who's been young at every level of competition he's played in. His OBP is .350 in AAA - to me that's respectable for a guy in that league for the first time...not elite, but not horrible, either. Again, why not wait until he makes the expected improvement Because the Brewers can't wait another season to allocate a higher % of their payroll on pitching when Fielder and others' time is limited in Milwaukee. If they wait another year to call up Escobar and have Hardy and Hart making about 10 million together, where's the $ going to come from to improve the pitching staff? Escobar doesn't have near the power Hardy has, but he's regarded as a superior defensive talent (no knock on J.J.'s defense, Escobar simply has better defensive tools), and he's a superior athlete that can impact the game with his speed. In a perfect world Escobar would get another minor league season to improve offensively, but IMO the Brewers don't have the time left in their window to let another season go by with Fielder and Braun having to play with a terrible pitching staff - SS was one of the few positions the Brewers had a reasonable replacement for a guy that's getting expensive who could be part of a trade to acquire pitching. We're not talking about Escobar having to replace Braun's offensive contribution - and in all honesty, this move makes sense for the Brewers only if both Hardy AND Kendall are not Brewers next year - Escobar would be an improvement over Kendall offensively, and hopefully a different catcher can put up a similar or better line offensively to what Hardy has done this season. Depending on who that catcher is you'd have two positions filled by cheaper players who at worst would put up the same #'s from 2008.

I guess I still don't understand the blanket assumption that Escobar is going to be a terrible offensive player. He's hitting .300 with a .350 OBP in his 1st year at AAA as a 22-year old - wasn't the preseason expectation that he was unfortunately going to stink on ice against AAA pitching and show how much more seasoning he would need in order to stay above the mendoza line in the majors? The OPS isn't there due to a lack of slugging, and while I don't see him ever morphing into Braun, I'm fine with that because his offensive game should be centered on getting on base - tough to slug an incredible amount when a bunt basehit is a major part of his approach. To me it seems like the assumed statistical freefall he didn't have between AA and AAA is being pushed up another level. I'm not saying Escobar will set the world on fire, but I'll continue to be willing to give him time to continue to develop, grow into his frame, and improve...something prospects are supposed to do. If the Brewers are going to improve their pitching staff, they need to free up money from other positions in order to do so - exactly the reason why this type of move makes sense, whether it be to trade Hardy before this season ends, or to extend his service time to make him a more valuable trade commodity in the offseason. Either way, Hardy's not going to be on the 2010 Brewers, so why not let Escobar get some everyday SS experience in the majors? I don't feel bad for Hardy at all - if he'd be producing like the top 5 shortstop a majority of people on this site think he is, this would have never happened.

Innings eaten up by Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia at this time last year are instead being eaten up by the likes of Villenueva, Looper, Mike Burns, and the rest of a taxed bullpen that would be average at best if well rested...it's no question an already thin pitching staff has suffered the cumulative effect of not having 2 starting pitchers capable of going the distance every time they take the ball (even if it led to Sheets' injury late last year, the innings he logged during the dog days of summer kept the bullpen from completely falling apart in 08) The alarming thing about the Brewers going forward is that they have next to no pitching help within their organization that can be expected to contribute in the majors next season - the disparity between developing positional player and pitching prospects for the Brewers is crazy, especially when a small market team needs to put a premium on developing young pitching to keep payroll at a reasonable level. Technically the Brewers are in it, but they've actually lost about 3-4 games of ground to the Cardinals while playing a steady diet of garbage (aside from their 1 series win against the Dodgers) pretty much since the all star break. Aside from how the Reds and Pirates are playing, I don't know if there's a worse team in the NL going right now than the Brewers. Without pitching help, which isn't coming, this team looks to be mailing it in already this season.

he's not motivated to move Hardy now because it isn't the offseason...kind of like saying he's not motivated to restart Escobar's ML service time clock. I think he'll be extremely motivated to move Hardy after he rejects any sort of contract extension and wants to reach free agency (if MIL even offers him one) - Melvin will do a good job publicly of hiding that motivation behind his mustache, as he always does.

The two biggest differences between the NFL and MLB have to be that NFL operates under non-guaranteed contracts, and their organizations don't have to fund 5-7 levels of their own teams' minor league development system. NFL teams can cut crap off their roster whenever they want, even if it means taking a salary cap hit for one season to free up space for the next year. The packers cut Joe Johnson 2-3 years into that horrible 5 year deal Sherman signed him to...last I checked the Brewers aren't going to be able to get away from paying Hall, Suppan, and Riske almost 1/3 of their expected payroll next year. Baseball teams may have to have a MLB payroll for a 25 or 40 man roster compared to the NFL's 53-man rosters, but then the payrolls of all recent drafts/signings/minor leagues aren't factored in at all. A baseball organization's roster is actually 2-3 times greater than any NFL team. In the NFL, every amateur comes in through the draft, and every street free agent basically walks in making the league minimum...in baseball, amateurs threaten to hold out a season if they feel that the signing bonus isn't enough to buy a jet, and large market teams pay more than Ryan Braun's total contract extension just to get the rights to negotiate with a Japanese league pitcher. Revenue sharing has helped small market teams' bottom lines, but there is no competitive balance at all, and never will be as long as tv contract revenues are kept separate. The NFL's salary cap system has basically ended quality free agency - you rarely see marquee free agents in their prime jump from one team to the next, unless their former team has cap issues or the free agent is a headcase.

with the market as it is involving pitching (i.e., teams with quality young pitching prospects don't trade them and quality starters aren't available until they're in a free agent year and their team's out of it by the deadline), I see no way an offseason trade of Hardy nets a #2/#3 caliber starting pitcher on his own. Last offseason, yes, but not after the season J.J.'s currently putting up, and with him headed toward his free agent year in 2010...what team in their right mind would trade a quality arm for a guy that nobody can figure out how good he actually is, who's set to become a free agent? J.J. may be able to be part of a trade that brings a quality starter to Milwaukee, but there would also need to be a quality prospect or two headed out the door with him. Escobar's hitting a shade under 0.300 in his first year at AAA - if he is truly a superior defensive SS to Hardy, there's no way Hardy's a Brewer in 2010 - the Brewers need as much payroll flexibility as possible while Hall, Riske, and Suppan's contracts weigh on them. Hardy and Hart's arby #'s will look much better if one or both of them are earning it playing for a different team.

Does the 69% / 91% stat include all pitchers, i.e. relievers? If so, how is PAP determined with relievers? I think there's too many outlying factors (including non-arm injuries) that can easily skew the data. In the past year, the Brewers lost Gallardo due to a freak knee injury running to first last year, Dave Bush this season due to getting drilled in the elbow by a line drive, both Suppan and Hoffman missed time with obliques - I know I'm missing other back and non-arm related injuries, but then one gets in the realm of what can be considered an injury directly related to PAP and what isn't...too much grey area for me. Could this not also mean pitchers who suck don't get used as much and pitchers who don't pitch much, because they suck, do not get injured as often? In a word, yes. There's obviously a point that all pitchers will break down - I think the issue is that such a point is different for all pitchers. Factors like body type, mechanics, genetics, type of pitches, age, etc all influence a pitcher's injury probability far more than whether he's consistently throwing 100, 105, or 110 pitches per start, IMO. Unless you see a glaring PAP alarm like Mark Prior circa 2003, there's too many other factors to weigh before concluding anything off PAP. Truth be told, there's only so many bullets in every pitcher's arm, and while limiting pitch counts seem to help arm injury rates, there's just as valid an argument that inadequate throwing programs for developing arms prevent pitchers for increasing/improving their acceptable workload. Nowadays there's so much guaranteed money tied up in pitching that testing the limits of young arms is too risky compared to any possible gains in production. What often gets overlooked is how much strain a pitcher had on his arm during high school/college years, or even earlier in their development. regarding Yo, I think the biggest concern is the year over year jump in innings for his young arm.

Briefly regarding Suppan, he was an average pitcher who wasn't going to improve, and the Brewers gave him the largest contract in their history at the time...simply not a good move for a small market team no matter how much they needed pitching. I think the lesson learned on Bill Hall is that players of his caliber should never have arby years bought out in contract extensions - exactly why I'm glad Corey Hart didn't accept the Brewers' offer. there's definitely a need for those type of deals with small market ballclubs, but they should only be offered when it comes to trying to hold onto a franchise-type player (see Ben Sheets initial extension, Braun, and the initial offer Fielder/Boras rejected). Keeping homegrown talent around does help a small market team, but if the scouting department does its job there should always be cheaper alternatives waiting in the wings to fill the roles average to good major leaguers approaching free agency fill on the team. Giving away too many contract extensions to developing players runs the risk of losing roster flexibility, blocking more talented prospects from getting legit major league opportunities when they're ready, and creating untradeable players/contracts should their performance slip (as many younger players do once the league learns all their strengths/weaknesses). Compare Hall to Hart/Hardy right now - Hall and his contract looks completely untradeable and will continue to keep Gamel from getting the everyday 3B job as long as he's on the roster. Hardy and Hart are decent major leaguers (Hardy's definitely better than that, but having a down year offensively) who still will have decent trade value from this point going forward. I think that above all else, small market clubs need to have a huge amount of roster flexibility in order to consistently contend - trying to lock in any and all position players to contract extensions decreases flexibility and limits what a GM can do to improve the ballclub after one of those deals doesn't pan out.

I think Sheets' current injury is more related to the pitcher abuse he went through when becoming Ben Sheets - the seasons leading up to him signing his contract in 2002, 03, and 04 when he pitched a ton, earned the reputation of being a workhorse, and pitched the best seasons of his career for a horrible team. He was just fine until mid 05 when the lat injury officially started his nagging to significant injury problems. Managing pitch counts is a way to minimize risk to a young arm, but you can never eliminate it and there is some validity to babying young arms to the point of guaranteeing arm issues once they're required to pitch a big league season - seeing what Lincecum did late last season almost floored me, because arm problems in pitchers are cumulative. There's no exact science to it, because every pitcher's different, and it takes a rare combination of talent and durability to have a longterm big league career. Pitch counts aren't the end all/be all, but they are a good tool for managers to monitor pitching, especially young pitching. For me, I don't see why a young pitcher should start an at bat on the next hitter if his pitch count is at or above 110.

If Gamel is on the major league roster, Bill Hall should not take playing time away from him unless Gamel needs a rest, even against a lefty starter. Bill Hall is a sunk cost and it's no use to sink the development of a good prospect by playing Hall over Gamel. Hall's had the better part of 3 seasons to justify the contract he was signed to, and it's well beyond the point of the organization needing to move on. I don't care what he makes and how nice a guy he is, at this point I wish they would just designate him for assignment and let him walk - even if that means paying money to a guy not on the team going forward. 8.5 million in 2010 is a tough pill to swallow for a small market team, though...to think what the Brewers could have gotten for Hall after the 2006 season in a trade (20/20 hindsight glasses officially on)

The best, easiest place to park would be somewhere in the far north burbs near a metra line that you can take to union station, then jump on a northbound redline train to Wrigley. I lived in wrigleyville for a few years, and unless you plan on getting to the area at 8am, you'll have a hard time finding anywhere to park that isn't going to cost you $20. Throw in it being the 4th of July weekend, Taste of Chicago, and construction all over I-94/294, I'd want to do anything possible to avoid driving.

looks to be a great day for the offense to fall asleep, right before a 4 game road series that could either bury or give the listless Cubs some life. Not entirely on him, but Corey Hart has been today's rally killer. It'd be a big wasted start by Yo, since he won't be pitching in any of the Cubs games.

well, it was fun to think they were right back in it...can't keep putting two gnats on in front of Mauer and Morneau every time through the lineup.

Mauer K would be a good start to pulling a Houdini here ......so much for that idea

The twins' offense would be much easier to deal with if someone could get Denard Span out every once in awhile

helps to explain why he showed up to spring training overweight....DORITOS!

The Cubs' pitching has actually been decent so far this season if you look at the starters - their bullpen isn't close to being as good as it was last season...their offense has been in hibernation for the better part of the last month, with the exception being against a woefully bad Indian pitching staff. Getting the cubs for 4 games at wrigley before Aramis Ramirez is back playing for them every day at 3rd, with Reed Johnson likely on the DL forcing Fukudome to play, and with the rest of their offense scuffling is a blessing - remember last July when all Brewer fans were stoked about Sabathia and Sheets kicking off the big 4 gamer at Miller Park last year? Pitching matchups often don't mean much with these teams. I for one hope all four games are in the 80's with the wind blowing out at about 30 mph.

The problem the Brewers are trending towards is having 3 top starters not matching up with other division opponents, and having next to nothing in the 4-5 rotation spots...the bullpen has been ok, but it's definitely going to regress the more innings it has to pitch. Losing the # of innings Sheets and Sabathia pitched for the Brewers last season was much more of a blow than many realized - when you had two guys who were basically guaranteed 7+ inning starters that could dominate a game for 2.5 months of the season, losing streaks just weren't going to last very long. expecting to replace their innings from last year with Gallardo, Parra, and Looper just isn't going to be as effective. We all knew that pitching depth was a big concern heading into the season, and that if they were serious about contending a trade for a solid starter was probably necessary - now that many of the big names that could be traded are injured and some of the Brewers' own starters are getting hurt and bad at the same time, it's a very tough spot for the team to be in. I don't see the Brewers becoming sellers unless the bottom completely falls out with their pitching and there's no decent solutions that can be traded for...

I'll continue to insist that even though the Brewers owe him substantial money for the rest of his contract, Hall's best value to the team is either to be traded away for anything they can get, or just gotten rid of - dropping him while eating salary and replacing his offensive black hole with anything on the roster makes them a better team than they are now. Hall's contract is a shining example of "bad money"...he's done nothing to justify the deal the Brewers gave him, and hindsight indicates he would have been the ideal tradebait after his 2006 season.

of all the prospects Melvin has traded in the past few seasons, I can't think of any of them who I'd like to see on the major league roster right now - LaPorta may be the one exception, but him being up would require one of the other regulars playing a corner OF spot or 1B to be injured (unless you factor the DH for interleague games)...I'd rather have Hart, Braun, and Fielder playing those positions everyday than LaPorta. The fact that losing LaPorta essentially gave the Brewers their first playoff berth in 26 years is something that I'm absolutely fine with. Stockpiling prospects is a great way to build an organization - however times occur when they need to be used as trade ammo when needs arise at the major league level in order for a small market team to have sustained success. Only so many players can be on the major league roster, and minor league success doesn't guarantee stardom at the major league level for anyone. There are definitely bad trades involving minor league potential for a major league player (think A.J. Piercynski for Nathan, Liriano, and I forget who else), but prospects have to be used to improve the major league roster in more ways than simply waiting to see whether all of them pan out or not - the odds are in favor of a majority of them not being good major leaguers. I think sometimes Brewer fans got spoiled by how many of the recent high draft picks have made it up and became quality players at essentially the same timeframe. Sure, the Brewers' minor league system would look even better if the prospects traded away were still around, but then again we wouldn't have Odorozzi, Frederickson (whoever was picked as comp players from the Linebrink trade), and more importantly the Brewers wouldn't have made the playoffs last year. There's also only so many prospects an organization can have and continue to give opportunities for development.

Hart isn't being pitched around when he's toward the bottom of the order, teams just realize the scouting report on him is that you don't need to throw him strikes to get him out. Until he improves his approach at the plate, he's not going to get anything good to hit. Fielder and Braun will get pitched around, pitchers just look like they're pitching around Hart because they feel he's bad enough to get himself out.

When you have Kendall playing almost every day, the pitcher's spot in the order, two OFs and the left side of your infield struggling to do much of anything at the plate, you're not going to do much offensively. Shoot, that only leaves Braun, Fielder, and Counsel/McGehee as doing anything - very easy to pitch around. Weeks' injury did indeed hurt, but him being in the lineup right now wouldn't significantly improve things unless other guys start hitting again.

They'll be building a new stadium in the near future, so the whole atmosphere of the CWS will change and probably get more expensive for the fan (paid parking lots, commercialization, etc). My fiance is from Omaha, and I've attended the last three CWS's - definitely a good time and something every single fan of baseball should experience in their lifetimes. I can do without it being 100, but this year it's been so cold in the spring that the weather "should" be pretty good.

One batter - one pitch is something Tony LaRussa would wet his pants over

It's as if Macha sees who's warming up in the Rockies' pen and decides to give the Rockies' reliever the best chance to get an out. You have to hit Hardy for Counsell in that situation, because as it was said earlier the lefty has to pitch to at least one batter. give yourself the best chance to open up the inning! instead, the 3 righthanded pinch hitters today (Hall, Hart, Cameron) all faced right handed pitching - something none of them excel at.