Fear The Chorizo

weeks pops a bunt out to the pitcher, nunez watches a fastball sail over the outer 1/2 to K, Kapler singles, fielder singles, Hart pops to right to end the inning cubs 3, brewers 0, end of 1

This is typically the dead arm period for pitchers, let's hope Bush coming to the plate at 84-86 mph is a product of that end of Top 1 - Cubs 3, Brewers coming up

Dave Bush continuing to look like he doesn't want to pitch in the starting rotation this season

As for Kendall, his career stats are meaningless at this point in his career. A .330 OBP is a good guess for him this year. His career stats are meaningless because he just had LASIK...his OBP will be north of .390! I'll honestly take whatever production Kendall provides as long as his OBP is north of .320 and his only limitation defensively is a poor CS% - he brings athleticism to the catching position that Estrada never could have, and should have a better relationship with the pitching staff given his reputation. I like the outside the box thinking, and I like even more that Yost hasn't even thought of hitting Kendall in the #2 spot in the order.

Does anyone have an explanation or reason for this. sporadic at bats during the first few weeks of spring training...at this point the main purpose of in-game ab's is pitch recognition and getting timing down. At this point in games, even if you have 4 at bats, they'll most likely be coming against 4 different pitchers, 3 of which a hitter's never seen before. Not exactly a recipe for offensive fireworks. still almost 3 full weeks of practice for everyone to be ready for opening day - staying healthy is much more important than tearing the cover off the ball in March for a hitter with a decent track record.

The way the Rockies' pitching injuries are starting to build up, they may be good match for trading pitching. The Braves may be an option if Hampton can't stay healthy - they have good starters but have paper-thin depth A bottom feeder/small market team may want to pick up a veteran starter at the end of spring training if they want to keep a prospect in the minors for development...Orioles, Giants, A's, Twins, Marlins and Nationals come to mind - all of these teams would have other prospects that the Brewers could use to build their minors back up. Not gonna get a blue chipper from them, but a veteran starter should get you a couple of low-minors, toolsy guys with some potential. Even the Yankees would be an option as the season goes on...mussina and pettite aren't young, and if the rest of the kids in their rotation aren't effective immediately, the Yankees will be wheeling and dealing. Their farm system is good enough again to mine some nuggets. They would also be a team that may look to add bullpen depth, something the Brewers will also have. Possible teams are out there, and I think something gets done at the end of spring training, and probably something else happens before the trade deadline. IF the Brewers stay healthy from a pitching standpoint, they'll have the resources to deal for what they need to help their club down the stretch.

Regarding their options, aren't Cappy and Bush both in a situation where they'd have to pass through some sort of waivers before heading to AAA, since they've been MLB regulars for several seasons? I would think there are teams out there that would pick them up swiftly, since the Sidney Ponsons of the world are getting contracts. I don't know if optioning these two to AAA is a viable option. I wonder if with Capuano's offseason shoulder surgery on his non-throwing arm - would the Brewers be able to keep him in extended spring training if they DL him? Since he's really been unable to even swing a bat much during his rehab, it might be the best place for him to start the season.

Vargas looked good last year too and then fell apart by the end of april so I'm not sure he'll earn a spot just with a good spring. It is too early to really talk about who has 'earned the spot' since these early spring training games mean virtually nothing. To this point, the spring training games mean virtually nothing, but if Capuano and Bush want to keep their spots in the rotation, they're going to need to have some better outings once they get stretched out to 5-6 innings. IMO, the Brewers have to make personnel decisions based on what gives them the best chance to win over the course of the entire season. To this point, Parra is definitely making the decision to start him in AAA difficult - I think he should make a month and a 1/2's worth of starts down in Nashville, then head to Milwaukee if there's a rotation stooge or two scuffling. Regarding Capuano, one thing I'd like to know is where his velocity's been so far this spring. If his fastball's back in the upper 80's/ touching 90, I'd be much more comfortable with him starting than if it was still in the low to mid 80's...he's got a good changeup, but when there's less than 10 mph difference between all of his pitches, he's going to continue getting hit hard the 2nd and 3rd times through the order. For all the statistical analysis of how 'effective' Capuano actually has been compared to his record, he's not the same pitcher that compiled those stats if his velocity's down 5 mph.

If Fielder's seriously upset about not getting 200K more this season after turning down a marginal contract extension that would have paid him several million dollars, someone better buy that guy a calculator. This is nothing more than Boras being Boras - there's a reason why many owners and now even quite a few players don't want to deal with him.

I'd really like to see Capuano revert back to being a solid option as a starter, but I don't think this team can afford to run him out there every 5th day until he 'figures it out' when they will most likely have better options in the minors ready to take his spot. I don't care if it's lack of velocity, command, mental, physical, whatever...if he can't get people out consistently he shouldn't be in the rotation. Another option they may be able to use with Capuano would be to DL him and let him stay in extended spring training...it'd give him more time to strengthen his non-throwing shoulder at least. I know pitching always has value, but does anyone else think part of the reason one of Capuano, Vargas, or Bush hasn't been traded to this point is because other organizations realize that they'll probably be able to pick one up off the waiver wire, or trade next to nothing to acquire them? If they were better pitchers one of them would have already been dealt, IMO. I think as the regular season gets closer, the Brewers are really going to be in a roster bind with their pitching - in order for them to have the best chance to win, one of these struggling veteran starters will need to be dealt, put on waivers, or Elmer Dessens'ed for the 08 season.

Alot of 'talking heads' on various sports sites compare Fielder to Ryan Howard - on the field, I can agree with the comparisons, but their respective situations are much different: Howard was blocked by Jim Thome for 2-3 seasons before finally starting to accumulate MLB service time a few years back. Ryan Howard is currently 28, Fielder is 23. For all intensive purposes, the first long-term free agent contract Ryan Howard signs will be his last, so he has one shot at cashing in big. If Fielder can keep weight issues away, he will most likely be able to sign two long term deals, similar to what ARod was able to do with the Rangers and Yankees. Howard initially felt slighted by the Phillies because he wasn't brought up to the bigs until 2-3 seasons after he was ready - he earned much less playing in the minors than what Fielder made playing in the big leagues at similar ages. All of the other 22-24 year old players griping about their contracts getting renewed isn't similar at all to Howard griping about it at 27. If Fielder wants to use Howard as an example for what he should be paid, the Brewers should offer him 900K in 4 seasons, when he's 27.

defensive excellence, highlighted by Joseph Dillon

Fukudome's tearing the cover off the ball - that .143 average is pretty sweet, since his 1 hit thus far was a bounding grounder that got over the 3b's head. The only reason his OBP is high has more to do with getting drilled and grounding into fielder's choices than with drawing walks. with that said, he probably goes 4-5 with 3 doubles today...hasn't shown anything that indicates he's capable of that to this point, though.

I have a much better option that really clears this debate up: Don't have below average starting pitchers start if you want to consistently win games. If they are that bad and you don't have any alternatives on your roster to pitch instead of them, then it's probably not worth mulling lineup/pitching rotation issues - the team's gonna be bad regardless of what you attempt to do. If there's any team that would possibly entertain this idea, it would have to be the Houston Astros

The Cubs were 2 games better than the Brewers last year because they had a roster with veterans who produced during the dog days of summer, played solid defense behind their pitching staff, and had a pretty strong bullpen from top to bottom. And it wasn't so much that the Cubs caught the Brewers, it was more that the Brewers fell back to where the Cubs were at. the cubs' only addition of note in the offseason was Fukudome - he's already been overhyped. He'll be a solid player, but it may be tough for him to outproduce the numbers the Cubs got from Floyd/Murton/Jones offensively. Defensively, he makes their outfield better. But, they still have Theriot and Derosa at short and second base, ramirez isn't getting younger and needs more than the occasional off day to stay healthy. soriano hasn't been able to run since signing with the Cubs, and now has a fractured finger. Their pitching staff has all the names, but it's also paper thin should injuries and poor performances start to surface. To put things in perspective, if the Brewers had won just 1/2 of the games they lost after blowing 3-run plus leads, they win the division last year by 5-6 games. Lack of bullpen depth and inexperience/youth can be blamed for much of that. The way things are shaping up for this season, the Brewers are much better off in both of those areas of concern. Right now the Cub lineup has a leadoff man who can't run, a two-hole hitter who can't get on base, an eight hitter with no plate discipline, a catcher who's been annointed as God after 50 MLB at bats, and a left-handed Japanese player who hasn't had an at bat against a major league pitcher. I'll take the Brewers' lineup over the Cubs' every single day and twice on Sundays. The only question about the Brewer lineup is how much better can their young players get?

Prince Fielder hasn't been offered a contract that eats up a few of his free agent years because Prince's agent will refuse to accept such an offer. It's because of Boras' refusal to give any team a 'hometown discount' that Fielder hasn't been offered a deal similar to what Pujols got from the Cardinals. If Fielder wants more money now, he shouldn't be looking at Melvin, he should be looking at his agent. Prince can't have it both ways - if he wants big money now, he'll have to include 1-2 seasons of free agency in the deal. If he wants to get to free agency and the huge payday as soon as possible, he has to play through these arby years, accept what the Brewers give him (or what an arbitrator decides). I can't wait for arby next year, you know Boras is going to come to the table with a 15 million dollarish figure, and the Brewers' will probably be 1/2 of that. This isn't the Brewers being cheap - this is the Brewers being good at drafting a great player who makes a huge impact very early in his career, and the great player's agent temporarily hurting his client's income in order to set themselves up for much more money down the road.

I like the fact that we now have 4-5 relievers who could take turn being the 7th or 8th inning "guy"...good teams have a flexible bullpen. Last season, an injury here and a reliever needing a day off after throwing 3 consecutive games there, and the lack of quality bullpen depth really showed up. The only thing Melvin needs to do to really give this team roster flexibility is to trade/unload one of the mediocre veteran starters before opening day...I'm thinking one of Vargas, Bush, Capuano, namely Vargas. I think the only way CV the elder is still on this roster is if a team gives the Brewers great value in a trade for either Cappy or Bush. If that deal doesn't happen, Vargas will be dealt for whatever they can get. As they stand right now, the Brewers simply have too many arms on their 40-man who can't be optioned to the minors without the risk of losing them and getting nothing in return.

Vargas absolutely needs to be traded - not really because he was really bad last season (he probably overperformed, actually), it's because the Brewers need to add more young depth in their minor league system, and Vargas no longer has an important role on this roster. He will have trade value at the end of spring training - there's minor pitching injuries already cropping up in other clubs' camps. Even if it's for peanuts, getting an opening on the 40-man roster by sending him elsewhere for a minor leaguer helps the team, especially if his salary is picked up by the other team. keeping Vargas would most likely end up blocking both Villenueva and Parra from starting the season with the big league club. I think you have to go with sheets, suppan, bush, capuano, and villenueva to start the season in the rotation, at least until gallardo is 100% healthy AND he's gotten enough work in spring training to join the rotation. thinking a bit ahead of time, Gallardo may very well be able to make one of the first 5 starts for the Brewers...the way the weather's been, I think there's a really good chance that the opening series in Chicago doesn't happen. We gotten above freezing maybe 2-4 days in the past month and the forecast is winterlike over the next 10 days. Amazing to me why the schedule makers put two brewer-cub series in chicago in April, especially when the brewers are 90 miles away, and have a dome.

Many factors play roles in determining how good a player's OBP is, but the one that stands out the most, IMO, is pitch selection/knowledge of the strike zone. You could be the best natural hitter on earth, but if you can't identify pitch and location well, you're not getting on base consistently. Good hitters have to be able to recognize a mistake pitch, and take advantage of it. I think some advocates of OBP-only player analysis would rather have every hitter take two strikes before taking the bat off his shoulders...there are very few hitters who are comfortable hitting with two strikes, especially with the stuff major league caliber pitchers possess. OBP will take care of itself if hitters have good pitch selection and react to pitches rather than trying to outhink or outguess a pitcher. I'm probably giving Baker too much credit, but I think what he's trying to say is that he wants his 'money hitters' to be aggressive in their happy zone at the plate in RBI situations. The words he uses to explain his position really make him look foolish, and I guess maybe he is if he'd rather keep the bases unclogged instead of not swinging at bad pitches. Hitters need to take their walks when pitchers don't give them good pitches to hit - what I think Baker's implying is that good hitters need to earn their money when a pitcher gives them an oppotunity to swing at hittable pitches, regardless of what the count is. My Exhibit A to this would be the 1st-pitch, walk-off HR Aramis hit off Cordero last season. This whole argument is a two-edged sword, and both sides of the argument can use the same line of thinking to say they're in the right...the main statistical component of OBP is batting average - in order to have a batting average at all, hitters need to swing the bat. In order for that batting average/slugging % to be high, hitters need to be able to identify the best pitches to make solid contact...if they can do that, the pitches they don't swing at tend to be balls which draw walks, also increasing their OBP.

that's what happens to a guy with marginal stuff and good command once he advances towards the higher minor league levels. It also goes to show just how skewed we all tend to be when evaluating a team that we root for's prospects. His minor league numbers were outstanding, but I think every single organization has a few pitching prospects who get lost in the shuffle once they start facing more complete hitters.

that's what happens to a guy with marginal stuff and good command once he advances towards the higher minor league levels. It also goes to show just how skewed we all tend to be when evaluating a team that we root for's prospects. His minor league numbers were outstanding, but I think every single organization has a few pitching prospects who get lost in the shuffle once they start facing more complete hitters.

that's what happens to a guy with marginal stuff and good command once he advances towards the higher minor league levels. It also goes to show just how skewed we all tend to be when evaluating a team that we root for's prospects. His minor league numbers were outstanding, but I think every single organization has a few pitching prospects who get lost in the shuffle once they start facing more complete hitters.

Regarding Capuano, it always boils down to what timeframe/set of splits people use to critique his performance. W-L record has little to no bearing on how he pitches from game to game. The only thing consistent about Capuano is how inconsistent he's been - 3 good starts, one great start, then 2 putrid starts, etc. I will say this - for all the people who shoot down the W-L record argument completely, citing all the effective starts Capuano had during his winless streak, they tend to leave out the starts he made where he was staked 2-3 run leads, only to have him give them up entirely, or leave the game in the 6th inning in a jam that our inconsistent middle relief couldn't get out of. If anyone could look this up I'd appreciate it - how many of the Brewers' 3-run plus blown leads were games in which Capuano started? Some of that obviously is attributable to the bullpen, but I think alot falls on the starting pitcher if he couldn't protect a sizeable lead (or pitch deep enough into the game to get the ball to the back end of the bullpen) I agree with the previous post in saying that Capuano should not be considered a #2-caliber starter on a team thinking playoffs, he's more in the mold of a #4 or #5 - a guy who can give you innings, but not someone you'd want starting a playoff game...I think the issue that the Brewers have in their rotation is who's the #3 behind Sheets and (hopefully soon) a healthy Gallardo? The Brewers may have 8 starting pitchers on their roster, but that's not great if 6 of them are very average and inconsistent. I'm hoping Villenueva can slide into that role, and at least they do have a number of arms that can take the ball rather than having to dig into the AA roster every time a starter gets injured.

Since Sabathia just turned down and ended contract extension talks with Cleveland after they offered an 18-million/year contract, me thinks that Milwaukee won't be drafting any contract offers for C.C. next offseason, either.

All players have to have some level of cockiness/confidence that allows them to be so much better than the rest of us bums. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif It helps to have talent, too!