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Fear The Chorizo

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Everything posted by Fear The Chorizo

  1. Fear The Chorizo
    Not saying it's the right move to make, but if there were ever an offseason to add a quality veteran RB who still has some tread left on the tires to this roster instead of finding talent in the draft, this would be the year. Sounding like a ton of quality RBs are going to be free agents, as almost all of them aren't going to be tagged.
  2. Fear The Chorizo
    Across Bellinger's 1st 3 seasons in MLB, his performance absolutely made him that type of lifetime extension candidate at 23 years old after winning the league MVP for the Dodgers. His 2019 MVP season he was an 8+ WAR player, but the 2017 and 2018 seasons had him over 4 WAR and every indication was that he was going to keep on developing as a great player. With 4 seasons left prior to reaching free agency, a 13-14 year, $350M total contract in terms of value seems pretty accurate to me based on where contract values were headed around 2019. If you want to argue semantics and say a hypothetical extension at that length would've only totaled $320M, you're missing my point that betting on himself cost Bellinger dearly in terms of guaranteed money and contract longevity....although I guess one could argue that it got Bellinger to free agency a year sooner since his 2020-2022 performance led to the Dodgers nontendering him last offseason.
  3. Fear The Chorizo
    The Dodgers gave Betts what I believe was the 2nd richest MLB contract in history at the time during the shortened COVID season, when Betts only had two months more to play before becoming an unrestricted free agent. They had just acquired Betts in early 2020 right before COVID blew up stateside. You think that extension would have come together if Boras was his agent? Bellinger has had one 5+ WAR season, the year he won MVP 5 calendar years ago. The 2020-2022 seasons are a bit too putrid for me to whitewash them based on a bounceback 2023 and just assume he's going back to being an elite slugger with plus defense at multiple positions.
  4. Fear The Chorizo
    If Bellinger wants to sign a 7-8 year deal where he makes between $18-$20M a season, sure I guess he could still sign a longterm deal in one of the next two offseasons. Because of the horrible years of performance AND the fluky 2023 season, Bellinger's resume permanently has warts on it to justify anyone offering him a 6-8 year deal at the AAV his team is saying he deserves.
  5. Fear The Chorizo
    There is zero chance he ever signs a ten year deal, and frankly it would be a huge mistake for Bellinger to opt out from $30M in 2025. And it doesn't show the Dodgers were smart to wait, because they didn't have an opportunity to make that choice. They've been more than willing to extend core guys on their roster before they reach free agency (Betts, Kershaw, etc), but have consistently let Boras clients leave (Bellinger, Seager, JD Martinez, etc) - in part because they know they are looking for more than what their perceived market value is to sign an extension before free agency.
  6. Fear The Chorizo
    Interesting that you brought up Rendon, another Boras client who cashed in a monster FA year with a huge contract - perfect time to have a monster year. Since then he's been a pumpkin and is a perfect example of why teams shy away from feeling obligated to break the bank for every free agent who had a really good year. Strasburg signed a monster deal right around then, too. Kris Bryant a couple years ago, too. Bellinger had a good year coming off 3 awful seasons, and Boras was trying to get him paid like Rendon without accepting the reality that many of his own clients have fallen on their faces after signing huge deals, and it's impacting how much teams are rightfully leery of lengthy longterm contracts for players with some warts and who havent proven to be consistently elite. Had Boras and Bellinger approached the Dodgers about a longterm extension following the 2019 season, $350m+ would have been the parameters and he'd be right in the middle of that contract right now. I believe at the time the Dodgers were willing to listen but it wasn't even a thought from bellinger/boras. There's now way to argue that betting on himself hasn't backfired.
  7. Fear The Chorizo
    If the Brewers exercise a couple club options, Chourio will make close to $150m on a contract he signed as a teenager before ever playing a game in mlb. And then he will be 29 headed to free agency. If Bellinger honors all 3 seasons of this $80m free agent contract, the 2nd free agent contract he has signed, his career earnings will be about that of Chourio and he will next be a free agent into his age 32 season. Had Bellinger tried to iron out a longterm extension with the Dodgers following his 2019 MVP season, he'd probably have made at least twice the guaranteed money he's going to make by the time he hits 34/35 years old. Don't get me wrong, Bellinger isn't poor - but he'd have been making alot more money than he will starting a couple seasons ago and through the next 5+ seasons had they tried a different approach.
  8. Fear The Chorizo
    His first three years of performance is plenty of incentive to try and work out a longterm extension with the huge market team that he came up with - Boras clients basically never do that, however, and that approach burned him. And it's going to burn Chapman, too. If you don't think Boras advises to the point if insisting all of his premier clients to take things year to year and then cash in on free agency, you're kidding yourself.
  9. Fear The Chorizo
    I'm more concerned what playing 1b would do to a guy with a well documented history of back issues compared to playing OF or being a full time DH later into his current contract. Also, Frelick has been in the majors a couple months in his career, and offensively he struggled quite a bit and still needs to prove he's a good enough offensive player to warrant being shifted all over the field to keep his bat in the lineup. Yelich is a veteran with a league MVP trophy and a few silver sluggers to his name.
  10. Fear The Chorizo
    Bellinger and Chapman are prime examples where being willing to sign an extension a few years before reaching free agency would have been better longterm options for their career earnings after mvp-level seasons. When it comes to players who aren't quite the marquee talent in their free agent classes, Boras' approach actually hurts them, IMO. This deal could have been signed the day free agency started last November. The 3 month plus delay got Bellinger absolutely nothing. As for Bellinger going back to the Cubs, to me it gets them back to where they were last season, which is decent. Maybe this breaks the stalemate and they turn around and add either Snell or Montgomery to their rotation, which would be a significant improvement to a team that managed to finish over 0.500 last season.
  11. Fear The Chorizo
    Look at the rest of the lineup today....it's spring training.
  12. Fear The Chorizo
    One thing is for certain - it will be fun watching Cubs pay CC $8M a year for a couple seasons after they have to fire him because the Cubs just can't hang with a young Brewers core.
  13. Fear The Chorizo
    I'm very interested seeing how long it takes before CC is annoyed by all the unnecessary and pointless attention, followed up by beat writers and Chicago market press hounding him when things don't go perfectly. He had it pretty good with a spineless group of Brewers' press, and it seems like he's got pretty thin skin when his decisions on lineup construction and the like fall flat. My guess is that he'll have at least one presser before Opening Day where it's obvious that he's annoyed by all of it, even before the games matter. Specific to this instance - it's the first game of Spring Training in February, so who cares? It's a clichet-filled statement from a guy instead saying what's actually on his mind, which would be along the lines of "It'd have been nice if the Cubs actually improved their roster this offseason to make it easier to win more than 83 games after paying me a ton of money last fall, really hope the roster I'm looking at right now gets 3-4 better players added to it before Opening Day or it's going to be long damn year."
  14. Fear The Chorizo
    Here's hoping it will, and he develops into an above average hitter at the MLB level - particularly against LHP
  15. Fear The Chorizo
    I'm pretty sure if a player is headed directly to the 60 day IL, a team can sign him without playing 40 man roster gymnastics just to complete that transaction - that's why a signing like Woodruff waited until after 2/14, before then it would have required the Brewers or a different team making space on the 40 man to officially sign him. However, I don't know if the Woodruff signing is "official" yet, either. The Sanchez ordeal has to be due to 40 man roster limitations - not only for the Brewers but likely for any team that would be trading for a Brewers' player that is currently on a 40 man roster. Spring Training is an especially tough time to do those type of trades, because most organizations are at or just under 40 guys on that roster to try and maximize flexibility/team control. It's not until cuts/DFAs start happening towards the end of Spring Training that clubs try to slide AAAA depth pieces into their minor leagues without other organizations pilfering guys they may have more room/need for. It wouldn't surprise me to see this Sanchez ordeal last another week or two before finally shaking out, or if it shakes out after the Brewers can't make a trade happen and wind up just DFA-ing somebody to make room.
  16. Fear The Chorizo
    Lets see how Wiemer looks in a game against live pitching before throwing parades for this swing change...for all we know that clip in the cage was part of a hitting drill designed to simply put bat to ball or hit the baseball to a specific spot on the field. In that video, it looks like there's little to no follow through on the swing, i.e., it wasn't a full speed cut. I seem to remember talk of Wiemer's reduced leg kick and hand movement in spring training last year, too. I'm all for him quieting down his hands and reducing the noise/movement. Hoping what he's worked on over the offseason translates to games.
  17. Fear The Chorizo
    Honestly the way this nonsense stops is if Bellinger, Snell, Montgomery, and Chapman wind up missing the 2024 season because Boras has run out of huge market teams with roster space to sign these players to make a ton of money while their performance declines.
  18. Fear The Chorizo
    Sanchez probably hasn't signed because the Brewers and other teams are stuck ironing out a trade involving 40 man rostered players to make room, all of which should have happened weeks ago if mlb free agency wouldn't be dragging on so long. Meanwhile we are a full week into spring training.
  19. Fear The Chorizo
    I'd prefer major league free agency to start Dec 1 and pause for a few months after Jan 31. 60+ days is plenty of time to get free agent deals negotiated and signed, and it'd be done before Spring training starts early enough to give mlb clubs time to fill out their rosters with minor league camp invites and split contracts. The 60 day IL rule schedule can hold into mid February so signings like woodruff can still happen (guys who are injured/unlikely to open the season with the team on the GameDay roster because of it). If a Boras client can't come to terms before the calendar gets to February, they can still sign somewhere as a free agent once the season starts. I don't care if players refuse to sign deals because their agent tells them they're worth way more than what teams actually interested in signing them are willing to offer - I just don't want that process dragged into spring training and taking away from it.
  20. Fear The Chorizo
    I'd add to that he could sign and play overseas for a few years, too...Ala Eric Thames, and then wind up back in mlb that route, too. He's got a slider speed bat, so I'd think he'd have a ton of success playing in Japan or Korea where velocity isn't constantly mkd to upper 90s.
  21. Fear The Chorizo
    If he hits, he will get a shot at some point - even if it's a different team trading minor league fodder for him if the Tigers don't have a spot for him.
  22. Fear The Chorizo
    I'd prefer Frelick focus on how not to hit like a pitcher vs LHP at the mlb level before learning new defensive positions.
  23. Fear The Chorizo
    I'm always going to pull for Hiura, wishing him the best! Doubtful he breaks camp with the Tigers, but hoping he hits his way back into the majors at some point this season. Maybe now the free agent logjam will finally break loose and chapman/bellinger find a dotted line to sign on!
  24. Fear The Chorizo
    I doubt any trade the Padres make would be one that winds up adding payroll to this year's club since they're basically on the verge of having to issue IOUs to make payroll A young pre-arbitration OFer for a prospect package in return? Makes alot of sense.
  25. Fear The Chorizo
    What the hell does starter ceiling even mean? Keith Law, for what it's worth, big ol' meh from my perspective. This sounds like he plagiarized a scouting report on Gasser from 2022 post Hader trade and then acted like the back 2/3rds of Gasser's 2023 AAA season never happened. As it stands, Gasser looks like he profiles as a mid rotation starter who is nails on lefties and has a good enough pitch mix to get through a lineup 3 times pretty consistently. If he is healthy, when the Brewers are ready for him to join the 40 man. roster he'll be in the rotation, and if there wind up being innings limit concerns he'd slide very nicely into a piggy back/long relief role from the bullpen.
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