Fear The Chorizo

you may be right...I sincerely hope it isn't the Brewers signing him to it. Of the 92 players who hit at least 20HR in 2023, only 7 had a lower OPS than Adames. When his defense takes a step back, and it will soon, his value at SS falls off a cliff.

This past offseason, 1 player who hits got a free agent contract with the combination of at least 9 figures and $20+M per season....Ohtani.

I want no part of paying Adames $20+m a season, for any length of a contract. He was brutal at the plate for most of 2023, and absent a few couple week hot streaks wasn't worth anything close to what people assume he will get for 5-6 seasons in free agency. I'd prefer they trade him and let Ortiz be their opening day SS, and let a different team play QO roulette with Adames. If he gets off to a poor start, his value at the deadline plummets and the Brewers would have to think twice about extending the QO next offseason and instead just let him walk for nothing.

That was the case in November 2023, too. It's 4 months later and neither has been signed yet, so it's apparent their AAV demands plus length of contract aren't in line with what teams are willing to pay. Boras will do his darndest to save face and say they got the best deal they could by waiting out the market, but neither deal will resemble anything close to what their initial hopes were - both would've been signed months ago it that were the case.

Dansby Swanson got that contract after demonstrating he was consistently an upper 0.700s OPS player capable of hitting 25-30HR a year and playing great SS defense. Adames has shown the ability to be that player, but not consistently - and he needs to prove his declining production in 2022 and 2023 seasons aren't a trend if he wants to cash in a 9 figure deal next offseason. The discussion whether or not Adames is worth a QO is based on what his 2023 season looked like. If he repeats that in 2024, I wouldn't give him a QO either for fear of him accepting it and being stuck with paying him $20M+. If he is closer to the player he was 3 seasons ago in 2021, then yeah he's worth more than that QO....but it's a risk assuming that's what he'll be in 2024 based on last year's #'s.

Thank god...my guess is that came after the 2021 season, because there's no way in hades that he'd get that kind of contract right now

I know we are still multiple weeks from Opening Day....but I honestly think one of Snell or Montgomery are going to remain unsigned when the regular season starts. At this point it's not even for lack of big market teams with holes in their planned rotations due to injuries in spring training. Who is going to throw upwards of $35m+ for a season for a starter who won't be stretched out and game ready until late April, when they could just wait two more months and likely land an impact starter at the trade deadline at a much lower cost?

When blue chip prospects have "it", I don't think there is any longterm benefit to playing them in AAA a few months vs having them finish their development in the major leagues. Chourio has been playing winter ball against grown men the past few offseasons in Venezuela. He is ready for the show. None of the other young brewer OFs should prevent Chourio from everyday mlb playing time just because they are a few years older. They are also less talented ( and I think all three are good to really good everyday mlb OFs).

Until recently, premier RBs who get to free agency tend to be older guys who have worn out their welcome from their initial team, who likely gave them at least one bigtime extension through what is their prime. Basically, you're getting damaged/worn out goods. This has definitely been shifting along with RBs in general falling lower in the draft. I do agree with you that you can typically find a solid FA running back option without having to break the bank each year - I guess this offseason more than others it seems like there are quite a few FA RBs I wouldn't mind giving multi-year contracts to based on where they're at in their careers, many of which are only going to be available now because RB contract values have sort of cratered faster than the franchise tag for RBs has dropped. Teams see that and are reluctant to tag RBs and rather see them walk and then sign a different and comparable FA for half the cost of that RB tag.

I get that - but what's frustrating is for a thread that has alot of good discussion/points and is at the top of the forum scroll to get walked down a rabbit hole of nonsense after clicking on it. Instead of another fresh page or two or substantive posts about the topic that is interesting and worth me clicking on to read, it's a urinating contest that just leads to me forgetting about this site for a day or two when I'd otherwise be engaged with baseball-related topics this time of year.

Honestly if that projection would be for the next 3 seasons as a reliever, I'd be pretty pumped, too. Knowing it's based on him being in the rotation, even if I also don't see him logging that many innings in 2024, is insanely awesome as a Brewers fan. Hopefully there's also not 100 walks included with that projection, too!

The Bucks look like a team full of NBA veterans who know that the regular season is pretty meaningless besides staying healthy and gelling before the postseason starts. I think the coaching change is helping on the defensive end, but a big part of this is the NBA regular season is largely a joke when you've got 10 teams from each conference that earn at least some form of a playoff berth.

I was thinking about what other factors are at play with this endless quest for 2 of last season's best starting pitchers to still be looking for a new contract, besides the fact their agent is Boras. I still think that's most of it, but there has to be other reasons. Enter the COVID season, one where there wasn't a minor league season but minor leaguers still earned a year of minor league service time. While that hasn't directly led to free agency grinding to a halt, it has absolutely led to a glut of players having to be added to 40 man rosters before teams typically would make that move in order to keep the rights to guys who absolutely have mlb upside, but need more minor league seasoning (Quero is a prime example of this for the brewers). Even if that's limited to 1 or two 40 man roster spots per team, that's 45-55 fewer mlb jobs for veteran free agents the past few seasons. And those 40 man spots aren't as expendable as the typical AAAA depth fodder if a FA gets added, as teams are hesitant to start the mlb service clock of those prospects still needing development by just calling them up. That coupled with luxury tax issues for the typical big spenders(minus LAD) and obvious tv deal uncertainty for over half the league to just brush off and throw $35m plus for a guy like Snell are also big factors. All that, and then when 29 other teams look at what the Dodgers can do with throwing a quarter billion bucks a year in TV money at their roster annually, they all realize that adding Snell doesn't make them better on paper, so why not roll with a youngster to start the season making less than $1m instead and see where they are come July before using a stockpile of aged prospects they would likely risk losing the next offseason to try and get better for the stretch run at a fraction of the cost?

Question for the mods - instead of ignoring/blocking posters, is there a way to ignore entire threads? Thinking that may be more effective than having occasional bickering contests that stick at the top of the forum pages or shutting them down altogether if others are still interested in a topic or whatever back and forth is going on within it.

That last heater was in the mitt before the bat got to the contact area.

Not saying it's the right move to make, but if there were ever an offseason to add a quality veteran RB who still has some tread left on the tires to this roster instead of finding talent in the draft, this would be the year. Sounding like a ton of quality RBs are going to be free agents, as almost all of them aren't going to be tagged.

Across Bellinger's 1st 3 seasons in MLB, his performance absolutely made him that type of lifetime extension candidate at 23 years old after winning the league MVP for the Dodgers. His 2019 MVP season he was an 8+ WAR player, but the 2017 and 2018 seasons had him over 4 WAR and every indication was that he was going to keep on developing as a great player. With 4 seasons left prior to reaching free agency, a 13-14 year, $350M total contract in terms of value seems pretty accurate to me based on where contract values were headed around 2019. If you want to argue semantics and say a hypothetical extension at that length would've only totaled $320M, you're missing my point that betting on himself cost Bellinger dearly in terms of guaranteed money and contract longevity....although I guess one could argue that it got Bellinger to free agency a year sooner since his 2020-2022 performance led to the Dodgers nontendering him last offseason.

The Dodgers gave Betts what I believe was the 2nd richest MLB contract in history at the time during the shortened COVID season, when Betts only had two months more to play before becoming an unrestricted free agent. They had just acquired Betts in early 2020 right before COVID blew up stateside. You think that extension would have come together if Boras was his agent? Bellinger has had one 5+ WAR season, the year he won MVP 5 calendar years ago. The 2020-2022 seasons are a bit too putrid for me to whitewash them based on a bounceback 2023 and just assume he's going back to being an elite slugger with plus defense at multiple positions.

If Bellinger wants to sign a 7-8 year deal where he makes between $18-$20M a season, sure I guess he could still sign a longterm deal in one of the next two offseasons. Because of the horrible years of performance AND the fluky 2023 season, Bellinger's resume permanently has warts on it to justify anyone offering him a 6-8 year deal at the AAV his team is saying he deserves.

There is zero chance he ever signs a ten year deal, and frankly it would be a huge mistake for Bellinger to opt out from $30M in 2025. And it doesn't show the Dodgers were smart to wait, because they didn't have an opportunity to make that choice. They've been more than willing to extend core guys on their roster before they reach free agency (Betts, Kershaw, etc), but have consistently let Boras clients leave (Bellinger, Seager, JD Martinez, etc) - in part because they know they are looking for more than what their perceived market value is to sign an extension before free agency.

Interesting that you brought up Rendon, another Boras client who cashed in a monster FA year with a huge contract - perfect time to have a monster year. Since then he's been a pumpkin and is a perfect example of why teams shy away from feeling obligated to break the bank for every free agent who had a really good year. Strasburg signed a monster deal right around then, too. Kris Bryant a couple years ago, too. Bellinger had a good year coming off 3 awful seasons, and Boras was trying to get him paid like Rendon without accepting the reality that many of his own clients have fallen on their faces after signing huge deals, and it's impacting how much teams are rightfully leery of lengthy longterm contracts for players with some warts and who havent proven to be consistently elite. Had Boras and Bellinger approached the Dodgers about a longterm extension following the 2019 season, $350m+ would have been the parameters and he'd be right in the middle of that contract right now. I believe at the time the Dodgers were willing to listen but it wasn't even a thought from bellinger/boras. There's now way to argue that betting on himself hasn't backfired.

If the Brewers exercise a couple club options, Chourio will make close to $150m on a contract he signed as a teenager before ever playing a game in mlb. And then he will be 29 headed to free agency. If Bellinger honors all 3 seasons of this $80m free agent contract, the 2nd free agent contract he has signed, his career earnings will be about that of Chourio and he will next be a free agent into his age 32 season. Had Bellinger tried to iron out a longterm extension with the Dodgers following his 2019 MVP season, he'd probably have made at least twice the guaranteed money he's going to make by the time he hits 34/35 years old. Don't get me wrong, Bellinger isn't poor - but he'd have been making alot more money than he will starting a couple seasons ago and through the next 5+ seasons had they tried a different approach.

His first three years of performance is plenty of incentive to try and work out a longterm extension with the huge market team that he came up with - Boras clients basically never do that, however, and that approach burned him. And it's going to burn Chapman, too. If you don't think Boras advises to the point if insisting all of his premier clients to take things year to year and then cash in on free agency, you're kidding yourself.

I'm more concerned what playing 1b would do to a guy with a well documented history of back issues compared to playing OF or being a full time DH later into his current contract. Also, Frelick has been in the majors a couple months in his career, and offensively he struggled quite a bit and still needs to prove he's a good enough offensive player to warrant being shifted all over the field to keep his bat in the lineup. Yelich is a veteran with a league MVP trophy and a few silver sluggers to his name.

Bellinger and Chapman are prime examples where being willing to sign an extension a few years before reaching free agency would have been better longterm options for their career earnings after mvp-level seasons. When it comes to players who aren't quite the marquee talent in their free agent classes, Boras' approach actually hurts them, IMO. This deal could have been signed the day free agency started last November. The 3 month plus delay got Bellinger absolutely nothing. As for Bellinger going back to the Cubs, to me it gets them back to where they were last season, which is decent. Maybe this breaks the stalemate and they turn around and add either Snell or Montgomery to their rotation, which would be a significant improvement to a team that managed to finish over 0.500 last season.