Fear The Chorizo

His acquisition that season was also widely panned by brewer fans

The Cubs? no - the Reds? Probably....but its still about 2 months from opening day and I'd wager that rosters on paper now will look different then for teams, perhaps most notably in Milwaukee. On top of that, young talent is very difficult to predict how it impacts wins and losses, and the Brewers are loaded with that right now. At this exact moment I still fail to see the Cubs actually being better now than they were last season, btw. They are paying their manager alot more, so they have that going for them I guess.

2022 was Ortiz's 2nd full minor league season, which also happened to be when the Orioles were just crawling out from their Astros-esque prospect hoarding doldrums and started having to call guys up to the majors because they were out of room stockpiling talent down on the farm while their MLB team was losing 100+ games a season. And I'd wager the Orioles' decision to trade Ortiz is 1% based on what their opinion of what he could be as an everyday MLB shortstop/middle infielder offensively, and 99% to do with realizing Ortiz is totally blocked at that position by two other players who project to be better than him, and basically all other MLB shortstops. To your other post - I'm not saying Covid caused prospects to regress in development, but I do think it caused them delays in being MLB-ready products and leads to difficulty projecting what their prime production seasons will look like. You're right, HOF-caliber talent starts playing baseball at the major league level younger than 25....it's also untradeable for a veteran pitcher with 1 year left of team control before reaching free agency, no matter how great the pitcher was 3 years ago when he won a Cy Young while only having to take the ball every 6th day due to a deep rotation and bullpen.

Worth noting both guys are already 25. True prospects that will have an impact at the MLB level tend to get to MLB a bit sooner. You mean like Woodruff, who was 25 when he rolled into being a bullpen option down the stretch in 2018 and in the playoffs (btw, Hall was in that exact same role on last fall's Oriole playoff roster)? And if I'm not mistaken, Hall still has 6 more years of team control tied to him before becoming a free agent, regardless of his current age. I don't think age has nearly as much to do with concerns over a pitcher drafted out of high school who missed a full season of development in the minors due to COVID, plus had his 2021 season cut short due to elbow concerns. Those two years would've been years #3 and 4 in the minors, which are typically the seasons where talented high school arms ramp up their workloads over 100 IP+. For reference, Justin Steele never went over 100 IP in any of his 7! miLB seasons before finally being a regular in the Cubs' rotation in 2022 as a 26 yr old. Hall was a 1st round pick in 2017 with a 100-mph arm and plus secondary offerings, but likely is several years behind what a typical pitching prospect would have in terms of development, and those missed years don't mean his stuff has the potential to be any less dominant at the MLB level. Had Covid and Hall's 2021 arm injury not occurred when they did in his minor league development, Hall would've been up for good in Baltimore as a 22 or 23 yr old. As for Ortiz being 25 - he was drafted as a 20 yr old out of college in 2019, missed all of his age 21 season due to Covid, then went through high A/AA levels at 22, AA/AAA levels at 23, and then spent most of his age 24 season at AAA before getting sporadic playing time across 15 games early in the season primarily because Mateo was nursing an injury and Henderson wasn't yet taking the lions' share of starts at SS. All this while playing in an Orioles system that had a can't-miss superstar both ahead of Ortiz (Henderson) and behind him (Holiday). In general, the absent Covid year for minor leaguers plugged into MLB systems a season or two before 2020 really should reset people's opinions of prospect ages and how much more room they'd have to develop once they do reach the major leagues.

No - because since it was the Orioles who traded for 1 season of Burnes, the Brewers should have gotten two of Holiday/Mayo/Henderson + the draft pick....even though any 1 of those guys would be a massive overpay from Baltimore's perspective.

Now that Ortiz is in the mix after the Burnes trade, if there's a market for trading Adames I wonder if he's next to go and then the Brewers could turn around and pay for a quality righthanded DH - JD Martinez or Soler are still looking for work. I thin Montgomery is going to sign for longer than what the Brewers would be comfortable with - although it is approaching spring training pretty quickly. From a pitching standpoint - finding a solid veteran starter to add to the middle of the rotation for 1-2 seasons, or have a contract structures with some sort of opt out in that timeframe.

Agreed....getting feet wet in the major leagues is no sample to make grand projections. Hall pitched in two playoff games against the Rangers and looked pretty damn electric last October, too.

Down the stretch, quite possibly...and getting their next wave of young arm talent mlb exposure from the pen - just like woodruff, burnes, and Peralta. I like the idea of somehow adding one more vet starter to this roster via free agency for early season rotation depth and then just letting the kids play.

At the moment, no, but I don't think the Brewers are done. If they do nothing else, this trade does make them better next season and beyond.

Ortiz is simply a victim of his best position being SS with a MLB ceiling of being an above average player there, and he was still hopelessly blocked and about to be leapfrogged by more talented players in a system that is insanely loaded at that position. To me it's vaguely comparable to the Brewers trading for Adames when it was apparent Wander Franco was arriving there - only Ortiz was already blocked by Henderson at the MLB level. Hall, to me, is the centerpiece of the return simply due to his arm talent - but that's not knocking Ortiz. Add in the 34th pick in this season's draft and I think it's a pretty solid return for Burnes, actually.

I have a hard time bashing this trade when the arm the Brewers get in return is as electric as Hall's - his floor is a dynamic reliever capable of going multiple innings, and he's got a much better pitch arsenal than Hader so Hall will get an opportunity to be a starter in the major leagues.

So at this snapshot in time, it feels like the Brewers are markedly upgraded offensively than they were at the start of last season, but significantly diminished in the starting pitching department without Burnes or Woodruff in their rotation. I might be reading the tea leaves wrong, but it feels like there's going to be something else significant coming for the Brewers. With how this offseason has slogged along across most of MLB, there are plenty of other potential starters to either add in free agency that would help this staff, or via trade (sudden surplus of young OFs and Adames/young IFs) - The AL Central is an interesting spot to start looking for a young impact starter with similar or even 1 extra year of control to replace Burnes with, in particular (Cease, Bieber).

So now after this trade do the Brewers turn around and sign Soler to dh with the burnes' salary savings? Or potentially sign a veteran fa starter with that $ to fill out the rotation? Feels like more moves are going to spin off from this one...particularly with pitching. I'm not thrilled with the return but if you look at the fact burnes has only gotten worse (not bad, just not insanely great) as a pitcher since he won a Cy Young 3 seasons ago, I don't know if the return was going to be crazy exciting given the fact the huge market teams will just buy burnes in free agency next offseason and hoard their impact prospects. When you look at the amount of mlb control the brewers picked up with these two players plus what amounts to a sandwich draft pick, this trade makes sense.

I may be mistaken, but IIRC a bunch of Mitchell's high K rate % had to do with his initial introduction to MLB in 2022 - which was pretty darn limited. Even with that stretch of late August through end of season 2022, by mid September he seemed to cut back on K's a bit and started hitting the ball with more authority. He also started the 2023 season looking very much like he belonged in an everyday MLB lineup before that unfortunate injury on the basepaths. If he can stay on the field, he carries tremendous value as an all-around player.

Encouraging, but need to remember that talented secondary also had pre knee injury chase young just wrecking games rushing the passer. Like the hire because Hafley seems to be a bit outside MLF's orbit compared to a bunch of the other names the Packers and Rams were interested in.

I would be shocked after signing Hoskins....but I had been advocating for Soler as DH/Santana as 1B most of this winter after Woodruff was nontendered. Adding two RH thumpers to this everyday lineup would be fantastic (and quite possibly too expensive). Soler makes alot of sense for the Cubs, too - we'll see what happens

If it's going up 3 scores on the next play (FG attempt) that's a coinflip vs converting a 4th and 2 that's a coinflip + continuing the drive for a TD or settling for a shorter FG that still are far from sure things that both result in just going up 3 scores, I'll take the 45 yard FG attempt every single time in that spot of the game - particularly after it was apparent the 49ers made some defensive adjustments that were geared to taking away the Lions' run game and making it more difficult for them to score as easily as they were doing in the 1st half. In the second half of a road playoff game, to me it's all about increasing the # of possessions your opponent needs to both score on and avoid giving up scores on to pass you up on the scoreboard. And going from 2 to 3 scores is a huge deal when also accounting for 2 point conversions after TDs. I think if the Lions were up 13 in that spot instead of 14, then I would be much more inclined to agree with going for it - however there's still value in adding to your lead at any point to make what is needed during end of game possessions to tie/win a game more realistic. The broadcasters were routinely referring to Campbell's comments about the game likely being "a race to 30"....he was right in that regard, but I think he failed to realize that giving his kicker a shot to do his job a few times in the second half may have gotten his team to 30 first.

The prospect profile for Chourio is that of a potential generational talent, a big part of that being his defensive profile as a CF - when he is playing in Milwaukee, he's their everyday CF. Frelick, Mitchell, and Wiemer are all good young outfielders who range from playing good to exceptional defense from CF, and who also can be moved to corner OF positions. I simply discount the "Yelich to fulltime DH" role to make room for one of these other 3 to become an everyday corner OF, because the best Brewer offense is currently one that has Yelich in left coupled with a 1B/DH combination of Hoskins + another veteran DH bat for 2024. Among these 3, I'd say both Wiemer and Mitchell have higher ceilings as corner OFs based on their power potential, whereas Frelick could be a middling corner outfielder offensively with above average range defensively in left or right - or an above average centerfielder offensively and middling defense at that position. Of those 3, I think one of them should be dealt once it's apparent Chourio is in Milwaukee, and at this point I'd lean towards it being Frelick to maximize return even though he appears to be much more polished at the plate than Wiemer presently, and he doesn't have the nagging injury history Mitchell does. I reserve the right to completely change my opinion based on a series of meaningless spring training ABs against career minor leaguers though, lol!

Trevor Bauer is the guy I'd want them to target - I think he could be signed for a reasonably-priced 1 year deal with some sort of option/opt-out tied to it....and if the Brewers fall on their face he'd be a firesale trade candidate.

Agreed - doesn't have to be a big ticket, longterm deal, and there are some guys still out there who make alot of sense to add 1 more veteran piece to solidify the rotation for 2024 so the youngsters can get get their feet wet without being leaned on too much right away.

But again, you don't have a guarantee of a kicker making a 45-46 yard FG. I didn't say it did - what I do firmly think is in that situation of the game, opting to kick a field goal that likely has around an 85-90% probability of adding 3 points to your score and going up by 3 scores against your opponent is well worth the risk of missing it in that spot, compared to the potential reward of going for it on 4th down and eventually scoring a TD to still only go up 3 scores. Obviously things can be situational but there's no analytics to support that he made the wrong decisions last night. This isn't a game in the 3rd week in October - at some point "playing the percentages" has to be weighed against score/situation/magnitude of the opportunity to tack points onto your score, especially when doing so gives your team an additional score lead well into the second half of a playoff game.

My problem with even the first 4th and short that failed was that it was already halfway into the 3rd quarter, and making a ~45 yard field goal in that spot would have forced the 49ers to score three times over the next 5 total possessions (3 for San Fran, 2 for the Lions) while holding the Lions scoreless to tie or take the lead - the decision to go for it there is carelessly aggressive considering the spot in the game the Lions were in, and failing to convert in that spot changed the direction of the game whether people believe in momentum or not. Making a very makeable FG in that spot forces 2 extra possessions needed before the Lions were potentially tied or losing, and that's a huge deal when there's only 22 minutes left of game clock on the scoreboard in that spot. Had they converted, sure Campbell would be lauded for his aggressive decision making....but even converting wouldn't guarantee that the next time Goff dropped back to pass around the 20 yard line wouldn't have led to a strip sack turnover and no points scored that possession, either.

From a FG length perspective - it's a much higher percentage play yielding points that makes it a 3 score game than what it takes to convert that 4th and short and then actually continuing the drive for a TD or successful shorter FG that would at best still make it a 3 score game. That Reynolds play on 4th down was a highly contested difficult catch - definitely not the one I'd call a blatant drop on his part (he had a terrible drop a bit later in the game that would've extended a drive for another scoring opportunity). While I agree that a kicker has to earn those 3 points, at some point you've got to let your kicker go out and actually do exactly that in a playoff football game. Just because the Packers stuck with a struggling rookie kicker doesn't mean the Lions should just pretend they're playing Madden any time they've got a 4th and manageable situation outside of a 35 yard FG attempt in a game they were either winning by multiple scores or trailing by a FG - particularly against a pretty darn good defense that made some halftime adjustments and was making it much more difficult for the Lions to march up and down the field on it as the game progressed.

That 1st 4th and short was in gimme fg range in the 2nd half, and the drop/failure to convert absolutely boosted San Frans chances to get right back into the game. That was a wasted chance to take points and go back up 3 scores midway through the 3rd quarter. Had they converted, yes it probably just about seals the game for the Lions- but the risk of turning it over on downs there easily outweighed the reward. Going up 3 scores in that spot turns the 49ers more into a pass only hurry up approach and takes McCaffrey out of the focal point - making that offense much easier to defend. When teams have a big lead it's OK to just keep taking 3 points, especially if it keeps turning the game to going up 3 scores.

Lots to question with 2nd half go for it and clock management decisions by the Lions....despite the 49er 2nd half surge it sure feels like the Lions just got too cute with being aggressive/unorthodox, coupled with a bad fumble and a couple terrible drops and that lost them this game more than anything. Honestly might be a super bowl I won't watch