Harold Hutchison

The open 40-man slot could be going to Yu Darvish...

My picks: Darvish: 4 years, $80 million, team option for a fifth year at $25 million. Lucroy: 4 years, $40 million

Played with the Orix Buffaloes on the Japan Pacific League. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=yoshid002mas He's 23, has kind of a "Troy Stokes" build. Draws walks more often than he struck out in 2017, and had a .891 OPS the last two years. Orix seems to need some pitching. Could the Brewers put together some kind of package to help Orix with pitching and maybe get Yoshida playing for the Crew?

So we should be allowed to seize a player from his home country and force him to play thousands of miles away? Wang and TJ wanted to improve their lives and the Brewers were obviously fine with that. Nothing to see here at all. I have no problem with that, either. But say the Brewers decide to establish a strategic partnership with the Hiroshima Carp of the Japan Central League or the Lotte Giants of KBO. But why not leverage that partnership to help players on both sides of the Pacific? Assuming that a player like Wang or Jungmann want an opportunity, they'd have a ready destination for that opportunity. At the same time, that team could then give the Brewers a crack at a pitcher like Kazuki Yubata or Sae-woong Park. It benefits both teams. The Carp wouldn't risk losing Yubata down the road for nothing (they get a replacement pitcher). The Brewers could have a prospect or two who's played at a higher level than AAA (NPB is AAAA, IMO). The players win out, too. Jungmann and Wang get opportunities, and the NPB or KBO players could get their shot at the majors.

I think teams are taking a closer look at their budgets. Why pay a TOR starter $25 million a year in free agency when you can make do with #2 starters and a killer bullpen? Even if you get an expensive arm ($8 million/year), that still saves $17 million per year for other players.

1. I think Hader is seen as a key part of the pen in 2018. He was lights out as a fireman, so don't mess with success. Knebel has the 9th locked down. 2. Jeffress has pitched markedly better in Milwaukee than elsewhere. Taylor Williams looks like a right-handed version of Hader. In a very small sample size, Gallardo put up a 1.69 ERA as a reliever, and that could be good. 3. Barnes is interesting. His K/9 went up from 8.8 to 10, and his hits/9 went down from 8.1 to 7.1. The problem was his BB/9, which went from 2.0 to 4.1, and his HR/9, which went up from 0.3 to 1.0. I think they are banking on him settling between 2016 and 2017. It will either be him or Gallardo. Both have options left. 4. Yeah, if the Crew wants late-inning relief, they need to look at the minors. Bickford, Houser, Lopez, and Tyler Webb all look like folks who could be depth in that department. Further down, Nate Griep, Jesus Brea, Quintin Torres-Costa, and Cody Beckman all look intriguing. Don't overlook Nick Ramirez, either. 5. I don't see them trading for relievers at this point. I'd like Pazos from Seattle or Steckenrider from Miami, but I'm not sure how to get them without overpaying.

Brewers get: RHP Zach Greinke Diamondbacks get: RHP Brendan Woodruff RHP Phil Bickford C Jacob Nottingham D-Backs cover 25% of Greinke's salary for the contract. Imagine a rotation of: Greinke, Anderson, Davies, Chacin, and Suter to start out - Nelson to replace whoever struggles or who gets traded.

What frustrates me about these moves is that the Brewers should try to either trade for other players in KBO or NPB, or to at least work out some arrangement where they can purchase a player from a team in NPB or KBO. Such moves have be able to go both ways, don't they?

As AAA depth goes, a good move. Choi has good OBP skills, but some trouble making contact (18 BB, 32 K in a small 127 AB MLB sample). Does have good power, though.

I kind of wish that they could have pulled off some sort of trade with a NPB team. Imagine trading Jungmann to the Hiroshima Carp for RHP Takeru Imamura or IF Kosuke Tanaka.

Because you would have traded Santana for a haul before signing him. I would imagine Cain in RF would give you very good defense. Brinson also gives good defense. Stokes would likely be better defensively in right than Santana as well. Both would cost far less than Cain, not just on payroll, but in terms of the pick and bonus pool. I'm not opposed to dealing Santana, but if the Crew signs Cain... I think that becomes a step back in some ways, and it hurts the farm system.

For me, Cain is a hard pass. Even if he comes at four years, $46 million, it also costs a pick and the bonus pool money. That opportunity cost is too much, even with the Crew drafting relatively late, thanks to an 86-win season. Phillips, Brinson, Stokes, Santana, Broxton are all younger and cheaper, even if not as good in some aspects. So, why give up the pick and bonus pool money for Cain? It makes no sense.

I look at Stokes statistics and see Khris Davis. I wonder what value he has given his power/speed potential (albeit at 5'8"). I'd say a lot. Davis never showed the speed Stokes did (41 SB total in minors for Davis, 95 so far for Stokes). Davis also was older as he moved up. Stokes was 21 this past year - Davis was 21 in Rookie league. Even if Stokes is a faster Davis, the Crew has him on the upswing.

Not that we couldn’t draft/acquire sign more, but chances are that the depth will not look so great there in 2 years. We’ll just say for sake of example that Ray and Stokes never make the majors. Brinson’s a 2 WAR guy, Phillips is a 4th OF, and Broxton is dealt. Now what do you have for your 2020 and beyond outlook? Not much. Maybe Harrison is the bust of the group and we luckily trade him away, but I just won’t etch the depth in stone. I don’t think this list has several sure-fire All Stars in it, so one could argue keeping as many as possible may still be advantageous. I’m not arguing against dealing from a position of depth to fill another position, but I’m just saying the “well, we’ve got a bunch of em” argument usually does not end up becoming true. I hear you and think you make a great point that the depth could be depleted quickly if Brinson is merely a 2 WAR player and Phillips is a 4th OF. I am certainly not advocating a "we've got a bunch of them, deal them" strategy either. At this point though, with Braun still in LF, Domingo established in RF and Broxton, Phillips and Brinson MLB-ready, I am comfortable moving some OF depth for SP. I agree, although who gets moved will differ. At this point, I'd be willing to deal Brinson for the right package. The more I look at the stats Stokes has put up, the more I see him becoming the Brewers' Altuve. He doesn't have Altuve's hit-for-average tool, but he does have very good OBP skills, speed, and has developed power. So, at this point, I'd keep Stokes, and see if he can develop the hit-for-average tool as he developed power, and deal Brinson.

Maybe the Brewers liked the prospects the Dodgers are letting them pick from for the PTBNL. If the Dodgers are making available guys comparable to the arms we got for Lind a couple years back (I realize we'd only be getting one PTBNL here), I'm fine with Stearns trying to nab another lottery ticket & see if they can find another Freddy Peralta. Actually, I'd look to see if they put one of four position players on the list: C Keiburt Ruiz, a switch-hitter who posted a .813 OPS last year between low A and high-A at age 18 2B Luis Rodriguez, a switch-hitting 2B with speed and a very good OBP "tool" 1B Nick Yarnall, a left-handed hitter with power and a good OBP tool OF Romer Cuadrado, who looks like a very good offensive package

They went 10-11 in games started by those 2. I think there will be regression to even some things out. I'm on board with you that it would be an improvement, I'm just not sure it's enough for me to push the chips onto the table yet. I tend to agree. I'd be inclined to be a bit more aggressive at the deadline than last year if we are in a similar position though. Also Nelson said in an interview today that his rehab was going very well and he'll start a throwing program in spring training. I would get the sense from that maybe a June return. That's my own speculation. With potentially Nelson and Burnes primed for rotation spots in May/June, it makes way too much sense to me to roll with what we have at this point and not make any more moves for SP. We don't know Nelson's ETA, and there is always the chance of a setback. Burnes, I think is in AAA until someone really struggles or is traded. The latter is just as likely. I see both Davies and Woodruff as possible bargaining chips to get a TOR starter, if not this off-season, then next off-season.

I agree 100% that the Brewer's farm system is much better than the Royals. But why would Kansas City kick in three of their own top 10 prospects and off-set so much of the prospect value they are getting back in the trade? I'd roughly estimate the value of the Brewer prospects to be about 52.2 million and the Royals prospects to be about 30.9 million. Picking up just a bit over 20 million in prospect surplus value isn't enough in a Duffy/Thames swap. I'd counter with: Brewers get: LHP - Danny Duffy 2B - Gabriel Cancel Royals get: 1B - Eric Thames RHP - Luis Ortiz 3B - Lucas Erceg OF - Corey Ray RHP - Phil Bickford I'd make a final offer of: Brewers get: LHP Danny Duffy LHP Foster Griffin 2B Gabriel Cancel 1B Samir Duenez Royals get: 1B Eric Thames RHP Luis Ortiz 3B Lucas Erceg OF Corey Ray RHP Phil Bickford C Jacob Nottingham EDIT: Keep in mind, the Royals get Thames to replace Hosmer, which saves them a ton of payroll (at least $15 million a year, based on what rumors I see), and the Brewers are taking on more salary for Duffy ($14 million/year). That's a $29 million savings for the Royals.

That's very true. When I do my ballots, I sometimes go with talent (Hiura, etc.), but a lot of the time, my top picks are the guys who have jarrign numbers. Suter had the top vote for dominating numbers. Burnes then took that spot, but it was close given that Troy Stokes developed a power bat - but even before his surge this season, I liked his OBP skills and speed. Stokes, BTW, is the guy who could be the Brewers' Altuve. Both are small players (Altuve 5'6" 165, Stokes 5'8" 182). Both have shown production in the minors. Neither were really heralded in the minors. They are different. Stokes has better OBP skills, Altuve's a better hitter for average. But five years from now, I would not be surprised if Stokes is a major league All-Star.

And I'll go back to being the Brewers' GM, and pass. Peralta and Ortiz are a no-go. Bickford and Ortiz would be better. Erceg and Stokes? The Royals would need to give far more than Herrera. I'm personally high on Stokes (See him as another Lorenzo Cain). Let's try this: Brewers get: LHP Danny Duffy OF Khalil Lee 1B Samir Duenez LHP Foster Griffin 2B Gabriel Cancel Royals get: 1B Eric Thames 3B Lucas Erceg RHP Phil Bickford RHP Luis Ortiz C Josh Nottingham OF Corey Ray

Here's my trade package with the Royals: Royals get: IF Jonathan Villar 1B Eric Thames RHP Phil Bickford OF Corey Ray C Jacob Nottingham Brewers get: LHP Danny Duffy 1B Samir Duenez LHP Foster Griffin At this point, I think the Brewers are well-served to go for Duffy. He is price-controlled, and at least for a couple of years, he'd be a good fit. We'll send Villar as a bounce-back candidate, Thames to give them an option to replace Hosmer (I'm selling high on Thames), Bickford as a high-end bullpen arm, Ray, and Nottingham. Duffy of course, slots into the rotation with Anderson, Davies, Chacin, and Suter. Woodruff can be AAA depth/injury insurance. Duenez offers better defense, and gives Aguilar a chance to be the full-time 1B. I think he could be a faster Lyle Overbay. Foster Griffin is a high-floor starting pitching prospect who won't be an ace, but could be that guy who gives you a solid 3.50-4.00 ERA cheap for a few years.

As folks graduate from the Brewerfan 25, I may look at some of these players. I've like Martinez's walk rate - and 14 of 36 hits went for extra bases. I think Garcia's a good option for catcher if you want a bat-first guy there. Lutz looks very impressive as well, but I'd liek to see how he does at Wisconsin before I shoot him high.

I'd like him to catch a bit. I think his offense looks to be close to Lucroy's was, and that's always a plus.

I agree with your statement that I am sure if given the opportunity one or more of those options would be great. But, as someone mentioned earlier in this thread, you would also spend quite a bit of the entire season figuring out which one of those options is going to be that true #3 pitcher, which means some bad pitching before that to get there. After last season, I don't see how anyone would want to assume a lost season, going in with a plan to figure out who should be on our starting staff - at least to begin the year. Guys like Guerra and Jungmann, I assume realize that this spring training is "all in" as they won't have 25/40 man spots for all of those options. Let's just look at the four guys: As a starter, Suter posted a 3.45 ERA in 2017 over 70.1 innings. This was affected by a rotator cuff strain. In July, four of his five starts were at least six innings. For the last two-three years, Suter's done a shuffle between the bullpen and the rotation. The last two years had him shuttling between Colorado Springs and Milwaukee. I don't anticipate the latter shuffle, but the former one can't be good for his ability to go six or seven innings a start. Suter's shown enough in the minors and in Milwaukee to have a spot in the rotation. I think that is he isn't doing that shuffle, he can get close to 180 IP this year. Woodruff's 4.81 ERA in Milwaukee was a little more Garza-esque, but that's more because he got treated like a baby seal in his last start. In his first seven, he had a 3.76 ERA. He also regularly went 6 or 7 IP Ventura... I think he's got potential. He posted a 4.06 ERA in 14 games (13 starts) at Colorado Springs. Not world-beating, but Josh Hader's ERA in that town was 5.37. Derby... well, I can say the same things about him that I said about Ventura, only he had a 3.55 ERA in 12 starts at Colorado Springs. All four of those guys look good, none gets more than league minimum. Jungmann, incidentally, posted great numbers at Colorado Springs (2,59 ERA in 17 games, 15 starts), and may be able to redeem himself as well. The 2017 Brewers were an awesome ride. But with Nelson's injury, 2018 was the year to give young guns like this a shot, and to be willing to take a step back to being a 75 win team for 2018 (and maybe finding a gem or two for the rotation) instead of blowing $16 million over two years to maintain an 86-win team. Honestly, the $16 million would have been better spent on bringing Neil Walker back to play second.

For 4/5 starters, the Crew had Guerra, Jungmann, Suter, Wilkerson, and Woodruff as 40-man options. Add Derby and Ventura for NRI candidates at AAA. All make league minimum or roughly that. Gallardo makes $2 million non-guaranteed. If he is a solid 4/5 (Garza-esque), he's an OK value, but still costs three times what any of the other seven cost. Paying Chacin $16 million over two years to do what any of the seven pre-Gallardo/Chacin options can do for roughly $600K is NOT a good value. AndI think Suter, Woodruff, Derby, and Ventura all have potential to be #3 starters or better. Chacin is a good value as a #3 starter. Gallardo would be an insane value as a #3 (I would have done a one-year deal with two or three years of team options). When was the last time Gallardo was worthy of a rotation spot, let alone a #3 starter? 2015. The thing is, as Cirillo and Jeffress rebounded in their returns to Milwaukee, so might Gallardo. As for the buyouts, on a $2 million deal, that's about $500K, give or take. I am less upset about the Gallardo deal, because his likely floor (released) is on a non-guaranteed contract. But if he rebounds to his 2007-2015 form, then the Crew gets no reward past 2018 for giving Yo a shot. In this case, a 2018 rebound that puts Gallardo back to his 162-game average of 15-11 with a 3.66 ERA and 204 IP means he's out of the Crew's price range.

For 4/5 starters, the Crew had Guerra, Jungmann, Suter, Wilkerson, and Woodruff as 40-man options. Add Derby and Ventura for NRI candidates at AAA. All make league minimum or roughly that. Gallardo makes $2 million non-guaranteed. If he is a solid 4/5 (Garza-esque), he's an OK value, but still costs three times what any of the other seven cost. Paying Chacin $16 million over two years to do what any of the seven pre-Gallardo/Chacin options can do for roughly $600K is NOT a good value. AndI think Suter, Woodruff, Derby, and Ventura all have potential to be #3 starters or better. Chacin is a good value as a #3 starter. Gallardo would be an insane value as a #3 (I would have done a one-year deal with two or three years of team options).