Harold Hutchison

Barker's languishing in AAA, especially in 2021, has been mystifying to me. He's pitched well enough and I think he's a good 7th inning option. He'd also be cheap. So why isn't he getting a shot?

Greinke would be of interest on two fronts should the Brewers trade Houser and/or Lauer: 1. He still is a darn good pitcher, even if he isn't at his peak. 2. It does let Ashby stay as a relief option. I'd probably also take Davies as a possible #7/#8 starter option that would be better than Lindblom, depending on option years.

Looking through the Athletic's list of free agents (https://theathletic.com/3087046/2022/01/25/top-70-remaining-mlb-free-agents-jim-bowdens-cheat-sheet-for-when-baseball-returns/), I see some of players who might be good "buy low" candidates. Zach Greinke - He's older, but if you were looking to deal Houser and/or Lauer for offensive help, Greinke could be someone who wouldn't be a bad #4 starter behind Woody/Burnes/Peralta. Ryan Zimmerman - Also older, and not quite the offensive force he was, but might be an interesting "soft platoon" candidate/insurance for Tellez. Zach Davies - He's 28, pitched well in 2020 and with the Crew. Probably would be excellent to replenish depth assuming a Houser/Lauer trade.

McNeil has a positive DRS at 2B, 3B, LF, RF. It's possible he could turn out to be the Brewer's best option in RF. How much time will Yelich miss in LF, especially now that he's on the big contract and just may have less motivation to play with minor injuries? I'm more than happy to go into 2022 with Urias as the everyday 3B, but what if he regresses? If I'm to play Brewer GM, and the BaseballTradeValue site's 15.1 million in surplus value estimate is truly what MLB front offices think of him....and the Mets really want to deal him....there would be a 100% chance that he would be in a Brewer uniform next year. I'd probably have his surplus value at 3x that amount. He had a crappy .679 OPS last year and still, on average, was a 1.0 bWAR/fWAR player. Before that season he had posted a .319/.383/.501/.884 slash line in over 1000 plate appearances. He was a .900+ OPS guy in AAA and AA. A very good history of hitting and getting on-base. If he splits the middle between what he was in 2018-2020 versus 2021...he is a .285/.350/.430/.780 hitter that bring plus DRS to four positions and the best comparable to that slash line in 2021 was Alex Verdugo who hit .289/.351/.426 for the Red Sox and graded as an average outfielder (good in left and right, poor in centerfield). Verdugo's WARs as follows: bWAR = 2.2, fWAR= 2.0. Verdugo's left field numbers are way better than McNeil's but McNeil's numbers are slightly better as a right fielder. Add in that McNeil can bring plus defense at 2B and 3B and I'd probably calculates out to a 2.3-2.5 WAR player if he hits at the .285/.350/.430/.780 level. At a price of 15 million in surplus value, IMO he's a great guy to take a chance on. With a year one arbitration estimate of 2.8 million, he's on a track that would probably earn him about 13 million over the next 3 years. If he's worth 6 WAR total over those three seasons, trading 15 million in surplus value away would be a very good move for the Brewers. McNeil's history is such that I'd want him over Tellez at first, either as a direct replacement, or as an indirect replacement (Yelich to 1B, McNeil in left). At worst, McNeil is a far more productive and consistent version of Jace Peterson. Plus, I'll hit on the park factors over the years - Citi Field is LESS hitter-friendly than Marlins Park. We saw Yelich make a huge improvement, and it's a good bet McNeil would also do better playing half the time at American Family Field.

Bill Schroeder wrote about a time Frank DiPino threw 189 pitches in a minor-league game. The manager was canned two days later.

I'd consider him as an upgrade at first base over the Tellez/Hiura platoon, and as an option for depth at 3B/2B/LF. Assume it's McNeil for Lauer/Ray/Tellez. 2b: Wong 1b: McNeil lf: Yelich ss: Adames c: Narvaez rf: Renfroe 3b: Urias cf: Cain bench: Severino, Hiura, Peterson, Broussard, Taylor rotation: Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Ashby, Houser bullpen: Hader (closer), D. Williams (8th), Cousins (7th), A. Perdomo (middle), Topa (middle), Sanchez (middle), Suter (multi/long), Lindblom (multi/long/garbage) I just don't see McNeil being much of an upgrade over Tellez if it cost them Lauer. I would rather have Lauer in the 5 spot and Ashby in the pen or #6 with Tellez at 1B. I believe Tellez will have better power numbers and drive in more runs than McNeil. With Brousseau and Peterson on the bench, I think the Crew has 3B & 1B covered. I'm naturally betting on McNeil to revert to his 2018-2020 form. If we get a reversion to form, that plus Miller Park/AFF's park factor will probably give a very good boost as well. Worth Lauer. Keep in mind, I'm OK with a top 7 of Burnes-Woodruff-Peralta-Houser-Ashby-Suter-Lindblom, especially with File-Small-Bettinger at AAA, and that doesn't count Zavolas, Colin Rea, or Jesus Castillo.

I think you are undervaluing the current trade market for starting pitchers. There are not many available and even less in FA. Starting pitchers are at a premium right now in the trade market which makes the Reds move even more confusing as they could have gotten a decent piece or two for Miley in this trade market. I think the Brewers could get someone like Keplar for Houser. Lauer has a lower value and wouldn't be able to get Keplar on his own. He would be closer to a Tellez type of a trade. I don't care what the trade simulator said for Lauer and Houser, to me they both have great value to Brewers and should be treated accordingly when asking for trade prices. Not any of this Tellez equivalent for Lauer. I'm not against using them in a package to get a premium player. Run a package one of them, Mitchell, Turang up the flag pole and see who salutes. Well, here's what Baseball Trade Values says about a McNeil-for-Lauer-Ray-Tellez deal: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-69137/ A moderate overpay by the Mets. Still, I'd like such a deal to clear some space on the roster for some prospects. Replace the Reyes/Ray/Tellez types with home-grown types like Howell/Fry/Wilson in the position player group.

I'd consider him as an upgrade at first base over the Tellez/Hiura platoon, and as an option for depth at 3B/2B/LF. Assume it's McNeil for Lauer/Ray/Tellez. 2b: Wong 1b: McNeil lf: Yelich ss: Adames c: Narvaez rf: Renfroe 3b: Urias cf: Cain bench: Severino, Hiura, Peterson, Broussard, Taylor rotation: Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Ashby, Houser bullpen: Hader (closer), D. Williams (8th), Cousins (7th), A. Perdomo (middle), Topa (middle), Sanchez (middle), Suter (multi/long), Lindblom (multi/long/garbage)

2b: Wong ss: Adames lf: Yelich rf: Renfroe c: Narvaez 3b: Urias 1b: Tellez cf: Cain bench: Severino, Peterson, Broussard, Taylor, Mathias rotation: Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Houser, Lauer bullpen: Hader (closer), D. Williams (setup), Cousins (7th), Topa (middle), A. Perdomo (middle), Sanchez (middle), Suter (multi), Ashby (multi) 1. Yelich needs to rebound. 2020 was bad luck with BABIP. 2021 was something else... maybe the back. 2. I'm assuming a 5-man rotation, barring a lengthy lockout. Crew is seven-deep, with Bettinger/Small/File/Lindbloom at AAA. 3. Hirua goes to AAA. If he hits enough, he comes up. But otherwise, Mathias adds more versatility.

And probably unjustified considering the season he just came off. I can get behind saying something like his hit tool is a 30 or 35 though. And it's a shame too, because in all the other categories he might be a 50 or better. You know who Corey Ray reminds me of? Keon Broxton. Power, speed, excellent defense, can draw walks, but he struggles with contact and there are a lot of whiffs. The difference is Ray bats left-handed, so he is a better platoon option.

Six of the top ten shortstops similar to Omar Vizquel are also in, including Pee Wee Reese.

i think Kaat's 2000 more innings probably would tilt him into the HOF for me just on that longetivity. Under the Hall of Fame Monitor, he hits 130 when a likely HOF player is at 100. I think the longetivity makes his case as opposed to hurting it. I post this despite his presence on the 1982 Cardinals (SPIT). Those 2,000 innings are mostly just a result of the eras they played in though. From 1984-98 when Key was active he threw the 6th most innings in MLB with the 3rd highest rWAR. From 1959-83 when Kaat was active he threw the 4th most innings in MLB with the 16th highest rWAR. Guidry didn't stack up in terms of health/longevity, throwing only the 21st most innings while he was active from 1975-88, but still managed a tie with Steve Carlton for 3rd in rWAR over that time frame due to his dominance when he was on the mound. That Key/Guidry were able to put up similar value over 2,000 fewer innings is a testament to how much better pitchers they were, as borne out by their 11-14% edge in ERA+ & higher ranking among their contemporaries by rWAR. If I'm splitting hairs between players with similar career value, give me the guys with the higher peaks over the guys that stuck around being average for a longer period of time. Average Kaat season | 202 IP | 108 ERA+ | 2.0 WAR Average Key season | 205 IP | 122 ERA+ | 3.9 WAR Average Guidry season | 235 IP | 119 ERA+ | 4.7 WAR I don't deny the higher peaks, but the longetivity also matters. Kaat was a key contributor to a World Series championship team in his 24th season, and racked up 16 Gold Gloves. If you do want to talk numbers, Key's problem is he topped out at 186 wins, 97 below Kaat's career total. Guidry came in at 170 career wins, 113 short of Kaat's total. Kaat had over 2400 stikeouts, several hundred more than either Guidry or Key. He has roughly equivalent numbers to Tommy John, who I think also belongs in Cooperstown. I'm just waiting for the inevitable Omar Vizquel induction. He's pulled roughly half the votes from the normal HOF ballot process the last few years.

i think Kaat's 2000 more innings probably would tilt him into the HOF for me just on that longetivity. Under the Hall of Fame Monitor, he hits 130 when a likely HOF player is at 100. I think the longetivity makes his case as opposed to hurting it. I post this despite his presence on the 1982 Cardinals (SPIT).

I think Yelich is going to rebound quite bit. A couple of notes... 1. He walked more in 2021 than he did in his MVP season of 2018. His walk rate the last two seasons has been very good. His OBP over the "slump" years is .360. 2. 2020 still saw plenty of power (2020 saw a BABIP of .259 vs. a career BABIP of .351 - 2021's was .321, so Yelich was less unlucky, and probably dealing with those lingering back issues). So, what are we looking at? Probably his back issues made him uncomfortable, and the Crew will need to figure out that swing, but I see some real reasons to expect a rebound.

McNeil may be a good "get." 2018: 92/92 2019: 93/93 2020: 95/95 2021: 95/95 Those are the multi-year park factors for Citi Field. 2018: 102/101 2019: 101/101 2020: 102/101 2021: 101/101 Those are the multi-year park factors for Miller Park/American Family Field The multi-year park factors for Marlins Park in 2017 was 90/91. To me, this points to some improvement for McNeil. In fact, Yelich's explosion was one big reason I was a big McNeil guy for a while. Lauer and Corey Ray for McNeil, a Top 30 prospect, and a trio of DSL lottery tickets seems right to me.

Hey, fair point. It’s not like Small’s strikeout rate was 11 per 9 in 2021 or anything. That would’ve been nice. He struck out about 14 per 9 in double-A and about 6 per 9 in triple-A. If you think that the triple-A stats were a blip, then you probably have him higher. If you think he's going to have trouble missing bats against more advanced hitters, then you probably have him lower. I'm not saying one or the other is correct, just that there is some evidence to back up concerns over his upside even if I think he probably at least becomes a Brent Suter type. Or Hader's replacement?

Sure you could argue that with limitless funds Stearns could abandon the philosophy of framing the roster to shuttle players between the majors and minors but I believe the utilization of the full 40 man roster is in his DNA. And describing Buck as "analytics resistant" is about the most kind way to describe him. Not only do I not think Stearns would want to have Buck as his manager, I don't think the Mets would have hired Buck if their plan was to lure Stearns next year. I hope I'm right. I hope so, too, but I am not as certain as you are. If the Mets are willing to drop $130 million over three years for Max Scherzer, then I wouldn't be surprised if Cohen decides to eat however many years and however much money to displace Buck Showlater as manager if he is set on Stearns as his new President of Baseball Operations. The other thing is, Showalter may not be as incompatible with Stearns as some are hoping. Any major league manager worth his salt would want to know about the AAA and AA rosters - those are players he may very well end up having on his roster as early as this year (or down the road in a long-term deal). On the same note, I am positive that Craig Counsell was and is on top of the development/performance of AAA and AA players as well over the course of his tenure under Stearns. It's just common sense. If I were to sign a five-year deal to manage the Crew, I'd be derelict if I didn't keep abreast of how prospects I'd have to manage were developing.

How in the bloody blue blazes does a 20-year-old who is presumably in excellent physical shape just pass away?

That is to be hoped for. Ray, too, could have a Taylor-like breakout, given that he was also pretty athletic. Some lottery tickets have been picked up... and it could be a very good thing for the Brewers.

I like the signing. For one thing, the walk rate and no strikeouts addresses a big weakness of the 2021 offense. He gets on base, makes contact, and that could be a good thing.

How much of that was playing half his games in Coors Field, though? That and the walk rate are worries. Don't get me wrong, he's a nice co-4th OF with Tyrone Taylor... but the Coors Field effect and the low walk rate are red flags.

I get why you normally would give a bad team a higher draft slot. However, in practice the teams that most blatantly took advantage of sucking for several years to get high draft picks (and the slot money they could then be used down draft) were the large market Cubs and Astros. That incentive to lose for years on end needs to be removed somehow. That can be addressed... perhaps if a team tanks for a period of time, their picks get moved to just before playoff teams. They don't get the biggest draft slots, but they still go ahead of playoff teams. I don't think you can completely prevent a draft system from being gamed.

An OF of Yelich-Cain-Renfroe with Taylor-Dahl as the backups? I like it.

I'd agree. For the team's long-term competitiveness, he needs to either be locked up to that long-term deal, or they need to start their succession plan.

That is very intriguing... small sample disclaimers apply, but that is a very fascinating BA/OBP combo working out to a .440 SLG if the .818 is OPS. That is actually his SLG. His OPS is 1.197 at AmFam. Highest of any park he’s played at. Oh. Oh... OH, YEAH!!!!!!