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igor67

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Everything posted by igor67

  1. igor67
    Umm how about Gomez?
  2. igor67
    Ban the PEC(D) users for life after all drugs are just a type of chemical, can't discriminate.
  3. igor67
    Wins are fun. I vote to end the regular season now and start the playoffs.
  4. igor67
    Even if it was a high offense era those teams were rather fun and with some decent luck (Jaha) and not fluky bad luck (Nilsson) they could have been pretty ridiculous.
  5. igor67
    Davis squares one up!
  6. igor67
    Actually Low run environment means the opposite, essentially the lower the run environment the more important it becomes to do everything yourself to score because your teammates will just let you down. Anyway this is a fairly simple empirical question outs have a certain value as does the advancement (which is context dependent but is about a 2-1 ratio of value). Baseball Prospectus breaks it down that including all baserunning events the Brewers are currently -0.7 runs. They break it down into separate categories of stolen bases, advancing on hits, advancing on flyballs, and other. They are above average on the other category and are excelling on hits. They are slightly negative on stolen bases, but have been quite bad losing over 2 runs on flyball advancement. I'm not convinced there is a particular pattern there at this moment that supports any hypothesis.
  7. igor67
    It's a simple empirical question. If they are making as many outs as everyone else on the basepaths, but taking more extra bases that is a net gain. It's the same tradeoff as steals were the break even point is about 2/3, keeping in mind that the run environment has cratered the last 5 years that number has fallen from when everyone was hitting 50 HRs a season (it was closer to 70% then). It might violate perceptions, but it is working so far and RR deserves credit for that.
  8. igor67
    just need a hit here Rickie
  9. igor67
    I think Doug did a great job selling high on a bunch of prospects frankly. Lawrie's rough start only makes it more likely that his sell-off netted far more wins for the major league team than those guys ever turn into.
  10. igor67
    I don't think it is an either or proposition when it comes to managing purely numbers vs. people. However I think it is the case that many strategies and moves involve a tradeoff between the 2. In general the tradeoff nature of most decisions is easily forgotten. Moving Segura in the line-up is a good example. Doing that sooner can easily make some players jumpy and nervous, but on the plus side is the benefit of the slightly better line-up. Regardless if one looks solely at outcomes it will always be possible to find examples of a strategy working and of it failing.
  11. igor67
    Nelson pitching a gem so far tonight 7Ks through 5 innings and not even 70 pitches.
  12. igor67
    In the world of trying to make a bold move if I was dealing someone from the rotation I'd probably actually trade Gallardo. With a good start so far I think his rep is most likely to exceed future value. Which also means he could bring the most in return. A number of things would have to break right and I can't see it actually happening, but if the pitching depth does hold up he could be dealt to take care of other needs, still be competitive this year and make it easier to keep things going.
  13. igor67
    Certainly cause for concern on the pay expectations, but a Koskie type of talent who does everything above average to maybe average but nothing truly standout would be huge at either first or 3rd. Just like Overbay would be great if it was 2004.
  14. igor67
    Well at some point if Overbay can't hit a lick, Hunter might start looking like a good platoon option. I have a hard time seeing much more than that from him at this point even with solid performances.
  15. igor67
    Baseball Prospectus playoff odds officially over 50% (6th highest in the NL) as of today. I didn't write down exactly where they started, but I believe it was the low 20's.
  16. igor67
    At some point when the team starts to cool off Doug will need to tinker and try and fix some of these issues, but the hot start makes it a lot easier to keeping waiting and see if the right kind of opportunity arrives. Injuries, personality classes that sort of thing that arise mid-season. Ideally a change of scenery for a first basemen type would be great, but a number of things could open up that would let us get more value than just releasing guys right now.
  17. igor67
    Well he's about to cross 50 ABs, and is hitting .300. I can start paying attention to Jose Pena as a prospect. (unless a guy is a first rounder or 18 I don't try to make a lot of sense out of the Pioneer league stats.
  18. igor67
    We will get a better idea when the PNTBL is actually named, but the framework here is pretty clear. The Mets finally lowered their expectations a bit (a little more on the quantity vs. quality side) probably just as importantly though the so-so start combined with the Brewers hot start pushed the Pirates 'to do something'. While it is vaguely possible that we could have matched the final price without it feeling like a big deal (and that remains to be seen with the PNTBL) given the semi public nature of the negotiations there is a benefit to Doug in future trades from having not completed the deal. The next time a GM is dealing with him and it gets down to the who blinks part of the negotiation, this clearly demonstrates Doug's willingness to walk away from a deal he doesn't like even when seemingly all of the pressure is on him to pull the trigger. That sort of benefit can matter a ton, but quantifying rigorously would be almost impossible.
  19. igor67
    You keep looking at first because you knew going it that it was a patchwork. The other positions have young guys that you have confidence in and are not players you quickly look to bench. Certainly you look at some giving them days off and the like, but the reverse case would be trying to go out and sign Gomez and Lucroy to Cabrera sized deal based on their great first couple of weeks forgetting their ages and likely aging patterns.
  20. igor67
    Certainly worth watching in the Nashville box scores. You'd figure even a modest improvement in his walk rate and he becomes a pretty useful reliever fast.
  21. igor67
    Not a huge fan of the bunt, however getting out to a lead on the Pirates has to be nice in the psychological warfare angle.
  22. igor67
    Actually doing any strategy everytime is bad, it is easy to exploit predictability.
  23. igor67
    The streak had to end at some point, I'm happy given the context to just take 1 out 3 and be able to focus on just trying to win and not getting psyched out by the Cards, the streak or whatever. Getting swept would have been pretty hard to swallow. Now we still are leading the division. And a lot of that is having so many guys who can just go out and give you a really good start and the pen to hold it.
  24. igor67
    I think Nelson presents a much more interesting dynamic to the Thornburg question. When we need a starter this year in my mind Nelson's progress is a big factor in whether or not you move Thornburg into the rotation. I'm not afraid to make that move, but if Nelson keeps dealing I figure he would get the first call.
  25. igor67
    Hoping for a Davis HR here
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