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igor67

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Everything posted by igor67

  1. igor67
    Well it's now getting into projection season, so we can attach some numbers. Davenport has the Brewers at an 18% chance at the playoffs right now with an estimate 77 wins. Fan graphs WAR predicts Reynolds for 1.5 WAR and Butler for 2.5. Looking at Davenport simulation numbers that additional win would appear to be worth about 3% improvement. I happen to think those are all slight under estimates, but we are looking at something in the neighborhood of a 20-30% chance.
  2. igor67
    Still firmly in the just say no to Ike camp he might be a hair better bet than the current options. However it is much easier to imagine a scenario where we could use that one extra arm we dealt rather than feeling like we are going to come up short again at 1st by not having Ike. On the other hand trading a young pitcher not named Nelson for Butler right now looks awfully intriguing.
  3. igor67
    Given history I like the idea of signing starting pitchers to below market deals and spending higher draft picks on hitters as a strategy more than hoping we'll figure out how to magically draft and develop them reliably somehow. It's hard to pull the data together rigorously but looking back I see a lot more poor pitch framers in Garza's history than good pitch framers. In fact Pierzinski was horrible with Texas last year and one could possibly attribute some of his ERA uptick with the Rangers to that, though it looks mostly like a spike in BABIP. Regardless it gives me a little bit of optimism that he might pull of something really exciting for us this year.
  4. igor67
    Even without accounting for inflation this is a better contract than we gave Wolf or Suppan. Given the actual inflation happening and the timing right after the Tanaka signing It's hard to believe he signed for that little. I'd have loved this if paired with getting Hart back, but it's hard not to think that there wasn't enough money for both. I'd also tend to concur with whoever pointed to the timing of Gallardo's deal. I still have some reservations about opportunities for young guys to make their mark, but many thought Thornburg was destined for the pen anyway and this could easily be seen as addressing to areas at once. And his definitely fits the bill for the move no one saw coming (OK 1 person).
  5. igor67
    Something like this would have made more sense if we had done a little bit better on the 1st base side. I suppose injuries might create opportunities, but I'd worry a little bit about filling the rotation too much and keeping some of the younger guys from getting a clear shot.
  6. igor67
    If Fielder went all David Ortiz for the rest of his career I could see retiring his number as well, but yeah Braun is the only guy who even has the HOF possibility right now, unless Lucroy plays as long as Fisk
  7. igor67
    For those who were curious Corey Hart was player A and Weeks was B
  8. igor67
    I think batting Gennet second gives him the best chance to be helpful. He's not a high walk guy and letting him hit in front of Braun should let him see stuff to hit consistently rather than hoping he lays off a lot of junk. Maybe batting 8th gives him a decent walk boost, but I don't think he'd benefit as much as say Reynolds or Davis where they'll just lay off and take the base.
  9. igor67
    So I came across this situation when a question about a couple of players popped into my head. I'm hoping people refrain from trying to guess the players for the time being. both players have below average defensive reputations, though player A reputation includes good and bad years defensively, while player B would be regarded as consistently below average. Player A Baseball reference WAR 16.0 Fangraphs WAR 15 Player B Baseball reference WAR 12.3 Fangraphs WAR 17 Who would you have rather drafted/ who was a better player?
  10. igor67
    I'd certainly rather take a flier on Reynolds, then trade a decent if low-upside prospect for a flier on Ike Davis.
  11. igor67
    As NRI's go he seems like a pretty high quality guy to provide insurance and depth at the back end of the bullpen/ rotation
  12. igor67
    On the broadest view I think it is very unfair to Weeks to put that label on him because he has had a substantial amount of success, but it has been in ways that have tended make him underrated. As others have pointed out there are plenty of other high tool flameouts to be more disappointed about because of how little they produced. D'amico and/or Eldred come to mind as players who really did only offer that briefest glimpse of what truly could have been. Plugging into FanGraphs historically derived formula a number 2 draft pick who is a position player out of college should produce 17.94 WAR compared to his current total of 17.2. On the more emotional side of reasoning the disappointment for me stems from the lack of a good reason for him not being spectacular. Athletically there is not a really good reason why he never became at least a consistently average defender. Mostly though that is small potatoes. Those wrists, the results, the high batting average in college and the batting eye all scream a guy who should have a batting average 60-70 points higher than he does with the same easy power. Injuries and the fickle nature of development all tell us guys don't often reach their ceilings, but in Rickie case none of the normal explanations seem to apply all that well and it just kind of hangs there.
  13. igor67
    Many did, but it's not really fair to the position players on those teams who were really outstanding. Even accounting for the inflated offense those guys were very good. They'd have almost certainly snagged at least 1 wildcard in that era if Eldred and D'amico could have stayed healthy. In many ways they were the equivalent of the 2013 Packers.
  14. igor67
    For a modest deal I like the competition. The high OBP would look really nice in the #2 spot. And good defense at first can help everyone else on the diamond look better.
  15. igor67
    I'd certainly be interested in giving up some value for that level of bat. Taking both the league and park adjustment into account Butler could post a pretty big season in Milwaukee almost certainly bigger that Hart. There'd be a good chance the offense leads the NL, and the rotation could be middle of the road with a bullpen that is flexible enough to not hold onto to underperformers (which I'm coming to believe is a better strategy than trying to maximize 'studs'). It maybe slightly irrational, but Doug does always seem to have one significant move that comes out of the blue, and I think it's a first base related trade for someone besides Davis before the season starts.
  16. igor67
    It's actually all part of a master plan by Marty Brennaman to run Votto out of town and into the Brewers waiting arms.
  17. igor67
    I'd handicap things myself as a 3 man primary race between Smith, Nelson, and Thornburg. Odds are 1 of our starting pitchers starts on the disabled list. So I'd guess there is a decent chance all 3 make the roster in some fashion out of spring training or end up on the DL. Hard to say which ends up being more appealing having the lefty in the bullpen or in the rotation.
  18. igor67
    My recollection of 'famous' scouts is that they usually end up with one guy to there name who is actually memorable. I'd love to see some scouting WAR data. It would be interesting try to adjust for the wide disparity in areas and opportunity.
  19. igor67
    Both of the above points are valid, and for further consideration Beltran just got 15 million a year for ages 37-40. Regardless of stain Braun's deal is a huge plus at this point.
  20. igor67
    I'm sure we could help NY out with Weeks...
  21. igor67
    Young cheap pitching depth with options that can start or relieve, I like the deal quite a bit. I don't hold illusions that Smith will become a huge steal but I like turning a free acquisition into more useful talent at a low price. The flexibility is important because we have enough young guys that it is not out of the realm of possibility to have 'too many' if we had a good health year.
  22. igor67
    I'm not guaranteeing he'll go back to uninspiring, but it was 46 relief innings the Reds might just have easily found the best 46 innings of Parra's career. It's not like we've never done that with other relievers.
  23. igor67
    Can I take 52 million dollars worth of full responsibility?
  24. igor67
    Outside of the Cards every other team in our division has a perfectly reasonable chance of having things turn out just like they did for us over the last few years. The Cards have loads of MLB talent with a track record, but not yet aged and the minor league talent. Everyone else is hoping things keep breaking their way. Enough so that depending on how 1st base gets plugged, and how we round out the bullpen depth we've got a decent shot at a playoff birth (maybe as high as 1/3). Compared to our historic rate of making the playoffs that screams competitive. After next year things could be different if everyone else talent actually pans out than you might need to consider taking a dive.
  25. igor67
    The development of pitching is an on going concern, but the value we have consistently produced out of position guys despite rankings is certainly welcome. I fully expect at least 2 of the 5 position players to be above average regulars, and a number of them have the right types of tools that they can be the guy that really puts it all together. Haniger's AFL stint seems to have helped elevate his status, and I'm curious to see what comes next. If nothing else the plethora of competent OFers and lack of high 1st base guys might be the factor that pushes Braun to first over RF if the goal is to get Davis starting (which it should be). Still don't know quite where he will slot in with the bat year in and out, but the best bet for having a contending team is stacking the line-up and hoping for better health.
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