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igor67

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Everything posted by igor67

  1. igor67
    Just expanding on Island's earlier comment. I think the issue is that Ned doesn't have enough confidence to let Spurling pitch out of a jam. He could afford to let Chris actually give up about 4 runs, but if he walks a guy and gives up a couple of narrow base hits before say a double Yost isn't going to let him try and pitch out of it even though he's only given up a couple of runs. And in fairness to Spurling he really has not pitched badly, it's more of a reflection on Ned's usage patterns that he won't trust a pitcher in garbage time with a longer leash.
  2. igor67
    Yes and they thought so much of Vinny that the spent a 51st round pick on him http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  3. igor67
    The author clearly spent actual time researching the site which is to be commended. You'd swear he was here since the beginning with such a comprehensive review.
  4. igor67
    I think you can really argue either way on keeping Villy in. If you put Spurling in to try and soak up garbage time you face a non trivial risk of him giving up enough runs and getting into enough trouble to have to come back and burn good relievers.
  5. igor67
    I think the one thing to keep in mind is that height and power projection go together. If you already have power the size issue is not nearly as significant from a biomechanics point of view. On the reverse end though being a lot shorter gives you an advantage in working pitchers. I would guess that it is particularly pronounced with guys who like high heat and ones who tend to walk players anyways.
  6. igor67
    Not accounting for a team's defense you are generally able to predict quite well how well they will do knowing BBs, Ks and HR if your a stickler you can throw in IBB and HBP too. I think we all know that our team defense is a little below average. I was just curious how much it is hurting us in general. I'm not suggesting any kind of massive change I think it just helps to know. Please note it is better to use runs than earned runs because so much of the difference between earned and unearned is subjective anyway. Team rank in NL? in runs 6th in Batting average 6th in BB 2nd in Ks 3rd Earned runs 7th HBP 3rd IBB 1st HR 4th hits 7th Using just the quick and dirty OXS formula for runs the Brewers pitchers should have given up 352 runs vs 349 actual well with in the error. Now if you look at the teams ahead of the Brewers in runs allowed there batting averages allowed are over .010 points better. So re running those numbers and taking out that batting average difference I have a run allowed total of 331. Now it is possible that those other teams have above average defense and that is what the ESPN stats suggest, but it food for thought that compared to the other top teams were giving back about that much on defense. (added some spacing for readability --1992casey)
  7. igor67
    I think Jose is destined for a very typical middle relief career bounce around having good years and bad years make a few million and hope he can land with a bad team and sneak into the closers role to artificially inflate his value.
  8. igor67
    I agree that's a very interesting analysis and suggests that Rickie may do better out of the leadoff spot where there is less pressure for him to see lot's of pitches.
  9. igor67
    Although he doesn't use it as an excuse apparently Ben was already suffering the effects of the disease in 2000 at the age of 23 www.rockymountainnews.com...28,00.html
  10. igor67
    Ennder was your implication that we could make Pinella resign mid season? OOh would that be fun.
  11. igor67
    Solid roster management. It's very easy to go through organizational depth once you start having success. Try to tight to hold onto everyone and trade away what you aren't using now. I'm sure there was an element of wanting to get rid of Capellan by the front office, but they also take a surplus of bullpen arms right now and trade down for more depth in a couple of years. In isolation the odds are still probably 50-50 at best that Cody ever pitches for the Crew, but keeping the cupboard of prospects stocked is a constant cycle of moves.
  12. igor67
    At risk of making an overreach, but how does STL come back with that kind of hole? In their rosiest scenario with that talent level they have last years .500 team. I think the best case you can hope for is that Royals team from about 5 years ago that played about 10 games over .500 for half a year before collapsing to reality. Jocketty is a great GM, but much like the Yankees the reliance on old players finally caught up with him and Larussa. Of course the yankees did it with old stars the Cards do it with old filler, but the effect is the same.
  13. igor67
    Those 13 games against the Reds look pretty good if they go all out on the white flag like they should and trade Griffey and Dunn that could be an epically bad team.
  14. igor67
    Lou's going to be wondering who he can get to go 2-3 innings let alone 4-5 so even if they don't score the Brewers need to go with the good AB theory and see if they can rip off a huge 4th or 5th inning with a gases Marquis which isn't much different than a HR derby pitcher.
  15. igor67
    With pitchers the challenge is for them to retain effectiveness when they get hurt Parra has done that and avoided any career ending injuries has in many ways a better prospect now then 3 years ago.
  16. igor67
    I think it would only probably go up about 3% part of the reason for the Brewers big jump was that they finally got ahead in something called adjusted standings. Basically BP does an adjustment to the runs scored and runs allowed totals to try and account for schedule differences as well as pythagorean variations. With the blowout the Brewers finally had a better adjusted record then the Cubs, so the computer now predicts that on average going forward the Brewers will have a better record then the Cubs which has a pretty big impact on the number of times that the Cubs catch us Of interest is that if you total up the non-Cubs teams in the division their collective playoff chance via either division champsionship or wildcard is 1.1%
  17. igor67
    Random point of note. While I advocated at the start of the series that it meant a lot more for the Cubs then us it still ends up being a rather important series. Baseballprospectus has a system for tracking teams playoff odds. Generally it takes the season results and then runs the season a whole bunch of times to see how often the various teams win. Before the start of the series the Crew had an 83% chance of making the playoffs. After the loss it went down to 80% which is a pretty big jump for one game in the middle of the season. Yesterday's slaughter though jumped up up to an 86% chance.
  18. igor67
    I like the idea of bringing Lo back not the Graffy has been bad but while Graffy has had a few seasons where he was starting quality Lo really was a starting caliber player for about 8 years. Career number comparison Lo .300/.365/.403 Graffy .268/.337/.396 The team could really use that OBP difference and the batting average difference is very nice for a bench bat Graffy has more raw power, but I think I'd rather have our pinch batter come in and draw a walk and let Hart take a shot at a HR then have our utility INF try and be the big hero. As far as a deal I think a straight up swap plus a player like Nix or Nelson or Crabbe has enough to balance out and give the Astros a player with giving some time to. At the same time we are not giving up anything major.
  19. igor67
    I think there is plenty of evidence to suggest that the Brewers have drafted for need under Jack Z. just not in a universal way. I think what they have done is in certain drafts they targeted positions for saturation drafting after the 1st round. For example the year they drafted Captain Lou they took 3 catchers in rounds 2-10. In the first round I think they've looked at need as a small component of overall strategy, but Jack really seems to like drafted a player who is the best at something. I believe that the Brewers approach to drafting for need is an acknoweldgement that there isn't generally a big difference in talent between 3-6th rounders or even 3rd-10th rounders for that matter. So the Brewers take a really good prospect in round 1 then figure that based on how other teams draft they will pick up 3 or so prospects at an area of need in the early round and see who pans out. And sprinkling in a mixture of pitchers they like along the way.
  20. igor67
    In no particular order the four things that will determine the NL ROY unless some pitcher comes up and goes ballistic for a contender are HR, batting average, RBI, and contender status. At some point Braun will lock up that last category as someone will connect his appearance to Milwaukee coming out of it's May slump and he will be compared ad naseum to Cabrera. After that he only needs to be competitive in two of the other categories and get at least 1 for himself. Right now it looks like he might have HR edge despitethe AB difference in which case I can't imagine how Pence would win.
  21. igor67
    First of all just piling on that jumping on these guys early is huge. Their bullpen is pretty good generally, but we've tied their hands through tomorrows game and possibly longer. They may be tempted to make some kind of strange roster moves for more pitching. You know it's a bad day when you give up a HR to Counsell when you have the platoon advantage. I really hadn't paid too much attention earlier in the year, but Ron Santo is an unprofessional slob. His incompetence is bad, but listening to him is like watching your half drunk fair weather fan uncle call a game. Sighing condescendingly on the air was awful. In my first year of XM I've only found two below replacement level announcers one in Cincy who somehow calls a game without any emotion and Santo. Put him in the HOF like he deserves and fire him from the booth.
  22. igor67
    My biggest concern is actually defense. Our infield defense is kind of a mixed bag. Weeks has stabilized by according to available metrics is still below average. Same with Prince. JJ is clearly very good, and Braun might be he certainly showed off very good athleticism and kept the errors in check. That said I really like the notion of having 3 above average atheltic OF who can still hit.
  23. igor67
    I know fox 9 is airing the Twins which annoys me I would assume Eau Claire will get the Brewers after that it probably has to do with were your cable provider is based.
  24. igor67
    Except T-bow has pitched in a hole mess of games the last week.
  25. igor67
    I don't see the Brewers digging up better production on the FA market for less, so I'm pretty confident barring a major trade we'll see the option picked up and some kind of search for a lefty killer to pair with him.
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