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igor67

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Everything posted by igor67

  1. igor67
    Tisko you need to look at his ABs he never had 500 in any season! Those late 80's OPS total's translate to Pujols type offensive production with health he could have had a HOF resume similar to Griffey.
  2. igor67
    That's a very interesting comp. Based on his early career years he looks like a HOFer if he doesn't have so many injury issues. Many are those some very nice OPS totals for the late 80's. 1st full season 1986 .901 SB 80 1987 .992 SB 50 1988 .852 SB 35 1989 .908 SB 21 Then after that his number get very erratic and ABs go way down
  3. igor67
    Well it's slightly innaccurate to say there is no protection effect. There is very clearly one case the IBB. the 8th spot clearly boosts walks, and any place where you have a big dropoff in production is a case were you might see an IBB spike Bonds having been the most dramatic example.
  4. igor67
    Well first off I'm annoyed that Fox is carrying a twins game this weekend! I get all excited to see them play and then I get hosed. On the plus side I won't see how absolutely overhyped they make Saturday's game. Since the Cubs need all the games so much more than the Brewers the TV guys will hype that to no end. Luckily the Brewers seem to have weather the storm of May and I feel they are well adjusted enough to handle even the unthinkable at the hands of the Cubs and move on realizing they'd still have a pretty solid lead. I do think that as a practical matter though the Cubs are playing well enough that sweeping them will be nearly impossible even though it would be tremendous fun.
  5. igor67
    just to point out that the win total is a little misleading since we've played by my count 9 more home games to this point then road games. If you just flip around the number of games the Brewers would have like 4 more road wins which would probably put them near the top 3
  6. igor67
    reiterating the point for emphasis: The Brewers calling up Braun has been the equivalent of trading for an MVP caliber player to replace a 4A ballplayer. Now Braun may slide back some, but that move right there has made the June Brewers way better talent wise then the April Brewers. There are very few players available as good as Braun is to even give the other teams a chance to upgrade as much as we did.
  7. igor67
    Joe's problem is that playing on so many good teams skews his frame of reference. If you are a pitcher and your line-up is the Big red machine for example your win loss record is going to be a good reflection of your talent because except for extreme cases you are going to get better than average run support.
  8. igor67
    The research on the innings jumps tends to focus more on developing players and hence younger players. Carlos already having once gone to 180 and being older is less risky than Yo. That's not to say that he won't experience some bumps pitching more innings, but he shouldn't have the increased injury risk and probable decline the following year that tends to plague big innings jumpers.
  9. igor67
    Additional point for comparison. Mench's EQA for the year .236 Rottino's translated EQA is .252. For those not familiar EQA is supposed to look like batting average and the translation of minor league stats adjusts for the relative difficulty of the majors vs. AAA. So based on this year's minor league stats we would expect Rottino to post an OBP of .320 and a SLG of .404. This involves no fancy age and hope adjustment just a straight forward comparison of the average difficulty of the two leagues. Of course Mench has an advantage in this comparison because he has recieved a lot of platoon advantage relative to Vinny. Just to add on some more numbers if you translate last years Nashville stats you get similar overall for Rottino as the Major league equivalent. Please note I that given the overall similarity in the numbers I adjusted the line's by essentially the same amount since I don't have the actual formula to do this. Which means it gets a little more dicey to do the next step. I only have his splits for last season where his eyeballed adjusted line was .335/.390/.430
  10. igor67
    I've argued elsewhere that I think the bullpen options available are not neccesarily better than us trying out more internal options especially if you factor in keeping the team young. Bench wise the only logical places for improvement are a better cady for Jenkins and catcher. Since Miller isn't going anywhere that really in my mind leaves open looking for a right handed platoon partner it would be nice if he could play first too to back up Prince.
  11. igor67
    Given the relative dearth of ABs for Jenkins platoon partner finding a willing lefty killer maybe difficult. For a middle infielder Graffy's can actually hit pretty well. I agree with Rluzinski that Rottino's number don't translate into offensive superstar, but they do strongly suggest an adequate platoon partner for Jenkins and one who won't be offended by small playing time. As a bonus he gives us better IF options too then playing Graffy at first.
  12. igor67
    I prefer to look at it optimistically. After years of having "that series" whether it was the Cubs last year of the infamous Sweep suits let down against the Pirates, how satisfying would it be to watch the CUBS struggle to within a game of .500 while we keep winning and then crush them at home! Imagine the wailing that would occur.
  13. igor67
    Part of the problem is that Hart will tend to be undervalued by GMs at large because he is a Swiss-Army knife type player. He does a whole lot of things pretty well, but will never have that one eye popping stat to make you say exceptional. He's got the speed to lead-off the power to bat in an RBI spot. He's never going to be a league leader though in HR, batting average, on base or steals. He'll just be above average across the board. In terms of his recent hot streak you've got him doing two things differently that make me think this is for real. Number 1 he has stated he is being more patient, and that was always one of his weaker points as an RBI guy he took a Carlo Lee like approach where he'd take walks the pitcher were giving him, but usually tried to hit 'em in. The result is an increased walk rate and a boost to his OBP. Secondly he is stealing more often again a function of leading off. That his steal total would go up is consistent with him having been a high percentage stealer in the minors, so that seems like a real expectation as well. Other than that his batting average is maybe slightly higher than you'd expect based on minor league numbers, but his power for the season is perfectly in line with his historical performance.
  14. igor67
    It's pretty safe that there will be only 1 maybe two major deals, and a fair amount of window dressing. The first thing I noticed on that list was that you have a number of old OF bats, and a lot of them either have serious warts like Jones or phantom warts like Dunn. Others like Griffey have no trade rights. With the Yankees kind of being in no mans land that even further depresses the buyers. There's going to be a lot of GMs who are interested in being buyers who kind of sit around window shopping all the different choices, but never decide to really pull the big trigger. I'd say that the best odds for your major deal are within the next couple of weeks. There's always that pair of GMs who are motivated to make a deal and aren't interested in trying to play chicken down to the wire who hook up.
  15. igor67
    I don't believe that the talking heads have noticed a substantial market correction in recent years for rental players. Teams are not jumping at the gun to toss away young players by the bushel full. Not that I'm interested in a deal, but I think a reasonable fair trade would be Bush/Vargas and Parra for Buerhle.
  16. igor67
    Closers tend to be very polarizing figures which I think goes a long way to explaining the widespread Turnbow anxiety. If Weeks was healthy and slotted in second behind Hart this line-up would remind me a lot of the mid 90's Indians when they had the good Omar Vizquel in between Alomar and Lofton and had 3 guys pushing .400 OBPs with speed setting the table for Thome and Rameriez.
  17. igor67
    Can't really say too much about his defense, but I think he has a much higher ceiling then our other leadoff prospect who happens to be the son of a major leaguer. His extra base hit rate this season would project out to about 40-50 over the course of a major league season which is certainly respectable, and he has a lot of time to add more power to boot.
  18. igor67
    It sure sounds like the parents weren't getting a lot of help from the school district or the police. This creep should have been fired months ago right before he got hauled off to jail.
  19. igor67
    No Bonds in the line-up really makes that line-up AAA quality. Only one player with an OPS over .800 and not a lot of players particularly close to getting over that hump either. I liked Ben's approach Yesterday just attack the hitter's don't worry about Ks because these guys can't be expected to hit you hard enough to hurt you unless you walk too many.
  20. igor67
    Prince being in the lead is really all about a perfect storm of events. 1) Pujols finally came around but he was really bad to start the season and with the Cards way back that is the image that tends to stand out to the voters. 2) Prince is destroying the league in one of the sexy categories: HR. If he was merely out OPSing everyone else no first place 3)The Brewers in first place I'm skeptical that even with everything else without the Brewers being such a big story this year he wouldn't be leading. 4) Name recognition. We know it matters that people recognize his name when they go to fill out the ballot it helps counter the normal antihype the Brewers would get.
  21. igor67
    The second picture was from magic the gathering a card called the prodigal sorceror, which for some reason was nicknamed Tim.
  22. igor67
    Yo immediately gets off to a great start with the W. Weeks comes off the DL to smack a pair of doubles, and everybody else keeps hitting. If Everyone became a smidge more patient at the plate this lineup has enough power to match anything the Yankees or Red sox have thrown together in the last 10 years.
  23. igor67
    The Woodard game is probably my favorite 90's Brewer memory. If only for a day we had a player good enough to stare down the Rocket.
  24. igor67
    Some things to keep in mind are different offensive era so Cecil's numbers are really quite huge, and number two the age difference was not Cecil's fault. He was partially blocked in Toronto and was more then ready to slug for a couple of years and the myth that he figured it out in Japan that year is just that a myth. Given the standards at first base he never would have been a HOFer but he might have had some interesting totals, and in retrospect may have looked really good not having given into roids.
  25. igor67
    2004 was hope for the future. 2007 at the risk of overreaching is hope for a long run at the top. I've gotten more lax in following the draftees, or the hype factor seems less on individual prospects as we've had more major leaguers to follow. But looking at this year we just seem to generating as many good prospects as the last few years without relying on the first pick in the draft and that is what really is exciting.
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