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rotoherb

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Everything posted by rotoherb

  1. rotoherb
    I haven't read every post here, but it seems to me that most people think that it would take Gamel or LaPorta to get Sabathia. I may be in the minority, but I doubt that the Indians will get a player like that in return. Just looking back at the last four or five years of deadline trading would seem to indicate that the Indians won't be able to get that high of a prospect for him. Players with just two months left on their contract just don't bring back as much as people think. For example, when the Royals traded Beltran in 2004 they got Travis Buck, Mike Wood and Mark Teahen in return. All were solid prospects, but none were top of the line. Here are all of the deadline trades going back to 2004. It's hard to find a solid comp to Sabathia, but you'll see that no two month rental player gets a Gamel or LaPorta in return. http://www.mlb.com/mlb/news/trade_deadline/index_04.jsp http://www.mlb.com/mlb/news/trade_deadline/index_05.jsp http://www.mlb.com/mlb/news/trade_deadline/index_06.jsp http://www.mlb.com/mlb/news/trade_deadline/index_07.jsp I do think that the Brewers could put something together that is enough to get Sabathia, but I don't think they'd need to use Gamel, LaPorta or Jeffress.
  2. rotoherb
    Here's an interesting tidbit from the Baseball America prospects blog: "Prospect Of The Day Matt LaPorta has his usual good game, going 2-for-5 at Carolina, but the Huntsville (Brewers) right fielder couldn't match the performance of teammate Mat Gamel. The third baseman went a perfect 5-for-5, scoring two runs and hitting his 27th double. There were approximately a dozen scouts in attendance throughout the course of this series, nearly eight more than I've seen at a game at Carolina all season. Part of that is because the draft is over, giving the area scouts an opportunity to do more pro coverage, but with a month to go before the trading deadline, teams were also in town to check out LaPorta and Gamel. With Prince Fielder at first base, Ryan Braun in left field and Gamel still struggling defensively at third base (he made his 22nd error yesterday and struggled throghout the series with his throws and fielding actions), it's unclear how both Gamel and LaPorta will fit into the Brewers' future plans. " There are obviously a lot of guys on Huntsville who could have needed scouting from other teams, not just LaPorta and Gamel, but it certainly does appear that Melvin is getting some teams interested in making a trade.
  3. rotoherb
    well, expect Counsell to be leading off again tomorrow....
  4. rotoherb
    "Official detours are not quick, they are on major roads. I'm not sure why this is an issue. " They used non-major roads all the way down to I-43, about 35-40 miles. The use of major roads was not a factor in detour route. The earlier detour to Lake Mills was on county highways. My problem is not with the roads that they chose, it was that they did not make any indication that they were taking everyone down to I-43, essentially a 90 mile detour if you were heading to Madison. It wouldn't have taken much effort to put an electric sign or any sign at the exit stating where the detour was heading. It would have been easy to do and helped out a ton.
  5. rotoherb
    I returned from the game to Madison last night and can confirm that the detour which is laid out is terrible. Not only because of where it takes you, but because it is very poorly marked. To make matters worse, all day yesterday the DOT web site listed the detour as being from Johnson Creek to Lake Mills and rerouting using CTY B to HWY 89. At some point late yesterday they must have decided to move the detour all the way back to Delafield and reroute everyone down to I-43 to Beloit. I can understand that road conditions can change and they need to make adjustments, but the communication and sign postings was terrible. In the very least there should have been a sign at the detour exit summing up it's route. If they want to reroute everyone 40 miles that's fine, but at least tell everyone that's where they are going. If anyone is going to the game today from the Madison area, I would stronly suggest NOT using the detour that the DOT has laid out. Heading all the way to I-43 will take you A LOT more time than cutting over on 59 or other roads. Just check a map before you go and come up with an alternate route. HWY 18 is closed for a mile in Dousman, but you can find a way around that as well.
  6. rotoherb
    I don't see any reason to think that Justice is making stuff up or saying stuff that he doesn't believe to be true. I'm with Owen on this one (and I really can't believe that) in that no one here can really discount what Justice had to say because we don't know any better than he does. But at the same time, it doesn't mean that I'm just going to blindly believe what a rival beat writer had to say just because he spent a few hours in the Brewers' club house. All I get out of this is that a Houston writer was in the Brewers' club house and didn't like the vibe that he got. It actually could be something bigger or it could just be a misjudgement on his part, we really don't know, but to outright dismiss him because you don't like what he says is very close minded. What it should really do is spark further investigation from people who actually do have access to the players and more questions from us to those people about the situation.
  7. rotoherb
    wow, 10 runs allowed in their last two innings after allowing just nine in the previous 61 innings.
  8. rotoherb
    Last year at the end of the day on June 4th the Brewers had a 32-26 record and were 6.5 games ahead of the Cubs. This year on June 4th the Brewers will be 32-28 record and are 6.5 games (pending the Cubs game tonight) behind the Cubs. It feels totally different, though, doesn't it.
  9. rotoherb
    Cameron has 17 strikeouts in his last seven games. Ouch. Three K's in four of the last five games.
  10. rotoherb
    Kevin Goldstein profiled the NL West in an article on baseballprospectus.com and had this tidbit about Inman and Garrison: Left-hander Steve Garrison and righty Will Inman, both acquired in last summer's Scott Linebrink trade, are both pitching well for the Missions, and one scout who recently evaluated the pair thought that both will be successful in the majors, although on a somewhat limited level. "Inman is just so unusual," said the scout. "He's a fly-ball pitcher with a funky arm angle and a funky breaking ball, and it's all just kind of weird. I don't like him as a starter--just too many balls up and flat--but he'd be great for their bullpen in that park." As for Garrision, the scout gave him a slightly higher grade when it came to upside. "Like Inman, he's not overpowering, but he's big-league worthy," the scout continued. "I could see him starting or relieving, really. The fastball is average, but the other stuff is pretty good, and he's got plenty of feel, command, athleticism and aggressiveness." A concise conclusion: "They're not phenomenal, but they're good."
  11. rotoherb
    Through three games, Jeffress has a BABIP of .590 and a strand rate of just .433. He currently has a 16.1 K/9IP strikeout rate and a workable 4.38 BB/9IP walk rate, but a 10.22 ERA. Weird stuff. I'd like to hear a first hand account about how he can miss so many bats and yet still give up that many hits. Are they all hard hit balls, bad defense or just really bad luck?
  12. rotoherb
    Hardy is currently hitting 50% ground balls and with his speed, or lack thereof, that can't be a good thing. It's also a big reason why his slugging pct is down so much this season. This is complete speculation based on watching him, but it appears to me that he started getting pitched outside a lot more after his hot start last season and a lot of those turned into ground ball outs.
  13. rotoherb
    Braun went 62 plate appearances to start the season before taking his first walk. Since then, he's taken nine walks in 135 AB and has a .319/.361/.651 average. That's still a pretty poor walk rate, but more in line with what he did last year and what he'll likely do for the remainder of the season. If he keeps that up then he'll finish the season with about a .350 OBP, which will most likely be lower than Weeks, but I think it will be close. The problem with waiting for some of Weeks' hard hit balls to drop in is that he's actually *not* hitting many hard hit balls. He's got a LD% of just 10.4% and a GB% of 50.7%, both the least amount of line drives and most ground balls on the team this season. For comparison, last season he had a LD% of 17.5% and a GB% of 43.3%, which are about what his career numbers are. Now, he's making A LOT more contact this season, striking out roughly 10% less often than what he's done in the past three seasons, which is a fairly remarkable jump in one season. It's way too early in the season to draw sold conclusions, but you could make a case that his increased effort to put the ball in play has caused him to hit fewer line drives, which in turn is making him hit for a lower average.
  14. rotoherb
    There was an article on beyondtheboxscore.com about schedule strength for the Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/5/21/524267/an-examination-of-early-se It was written on Tuesday, before the Cubs started their series with the Astros, but at that time they had played just 15 games against teams with a better than .500 record.
  15. rotoherb
    or you could look up his fielding stats on baseballreference.com http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=5141 Gamel currently has a .922 fielding pct, which is quite a bit better than his past seasons or his .868 career pct.
  16. rotoherb
    I'm guessing that Brantley has been playing first base recently because Errecart was out due to an injury for the last week.
  17. rotoherb
    to be more specifc, teams with the following three characteristics do better in the postseason: A power pitching staff, as measured by normalized strikeout rate. A good closer. A good defense. Probably nothing shocking, but you can find the nuts and bolts of why in articles on BP. The Cubs had the best rating in this regard heading into last year's postseason and got swept. Nothing is a guarantee, it just increases your odds.
  18. rotoherb
    Actually, there have been studies that do show teams with power pitchers or high strikeout guys do better in the postseason than teams without them.
  19. rotoherb
    There's really no reason why the Brewers can't succeed with someone other than Gagne closing games. The "closer" role is entirely overrated anyway. Last night for example, Torres faced 3, 4, 5 in the order during the eighth and Gagne faced the bottom of the order in the ninth. Which reliever had a tougher job to hold a two run lead? Saying that the Brewers are toast if Gagne isn't the closer seems pretty over the top to me.
  20. rotoherb
    Just to give everyone at least a glimmer of hope, here are the standings as of one year ago today, the morning of 5/8/2007: NL East Team Name G W L T PCT GB RS RAAtlanta Braves 31 19 12 0 .613 - 157 140New York Mets 31 19 12 0 .613 - 165 113Florida Marlins 31 14 17 0 .452 5.0 164 169Philadelphia Phillies 32 14 18 0 .438 5.5 158 160Washington Nationals 32 9 23 0 .281 10.5 94 164NL CentralTeam Name G W L T PCT GB RS RAMilwaukee Brewers 32 22 10 0 .688 - 160 127Chicago Cubs 29 15 14 0 .517 5.5 142 108Houston Astros 31 14 17 0 .452 7.5 132 131Cincinnati Reds 32 14 18 0 .438 8.0 151 144Pittsburgh Pirates 30 13 17 0 .433 8.0 104 145St. Louis Cardinals 30 12 18 0 .400 9.0 92 146NL WestTeam Name G W L T PCT GB RS RALos Angeles Dodgers 32 19 13 0 .594 - 141 117San Diego Padres 32 18 14 0 .563 1.0 143 123San Francisco Giants 31 17 14 0 .548 1.5 141 129Arizona Diamondbacks 34 18 16 0 .529 2.0 134 136Colorado Rockies 32 14 18 0 .438 5.0 139 165 [/pre]None of the teams in first place actually made the playoffs while Rockies and Phillies were 14-18. This doesn't mean the Brewers are better off this season, just that they aren't completely out of it. edit: I have no idea how to format this correctly.
  21. rotoherb
    His ERA is lower than it should be, mainly because of the walks, but he's also not going to continue to allow 10 walks for every 15 innings. The strikeouts per inning are legitimate, though, and as long as he keeps that up then he'll be fine. The biggest reason that he looks so much better this year compared to the last few is the home runs allowed. He allowed eight in 59.1 innings in 2006 and nine in 37.2 innings in 2005, but just one in 15 innings this season. I think that I'd be more worried that his home runs allowed this season are a fluke than how many walks he's allowed.
  22. rotoherb
    If you want a Brewer comp, his minor league numbers remind me of Darryl Hamilton's, though Hamilton was a few years older at each level. Hamilton had a few decent years, but the lack of power always kept him from taking it to the next level. I like Brantley, but he HAS to be able to play CF at a decent level in order to be a starter in the majors.
  23. rotoherb
    It's going to be really hard for Brantley to not lead the Southern League in runs scored considering his on base skills and hitting in front of Gamel/LaPorta. He currently leads the league in runs, hits, OBP and SB to go along with 13 walks in 74 AB and he's still just 20 years old.
  24. rotoherb
    Stetter would get the win. I sure hope Yost doesn't bring in Gagne for the seventh time in eight games....
  25. rotoherb
    may as well have Hardy try and steal now. At least then you can pinch hit for Bush to lead off the seventh when Hardy gets thrown out. This is just wasting an AB here, unless there's some crazy luck.
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