rotoherb

Using Fangraph's wins above replacement, which combines offense and defense, Hardy was the fifth best SS in the majors in 2007 and the fourth best SS in the majors in 2008. Who needs rose colored glasses when you have facts? The Brewers have a guy who was a top five SS in all of baseball over the last two seasons. Two months of this season really isn't going to make me think that he still isn't that player. If you can improve the team by trading Hardy then do it, but it depends on what they can get. They would need to get quite a lot to improve the team by trading Hardy.

OK, so since Weeks got hurt Counsell is hitting .275/.293/.275 and the Brewers have averaged 3.2 runs per game over 11 games. Yes, it's only 41 PA and other players are slumping, but considering Counsell's history, this is probably closer to what the Brewers can expect for the rest of the season than the other players. The Brewers already have one offensive sink hole in the lineup with Kendall. I'm sure that Melvin understands that they can't use Counsell at second base for the rest of the season without seriously hurting the offense. I really don't have any answer either, though. How much would you be willing to give up in a trade for a second baseman that is probably a one year guy? Signing Mark Grudzielanek seems to make a lot of sense, but who knows what kind of shape he is in or if he even wants to play. I'm sure the Royals would love to see him sign before next week because they'd get an extra draft pick for him. Of course, that would also bump the Brewers second round picks and their sandwich pick for Shouse back one selection. It sounds crazy, but I wonder if something like that even crosses their minds, thinking that if they just wait two weeks to sign a guy that they'll get slightly better draft position in the draft. I'm sure it's a minor consideration, if considered at all, I just found it amusing that they could actually hurt their draft position - and give the Royals a huge bonus - just by signing a guy now instead of waiting 10 days.

Wade Boggs struck out about once every 14 plate appearances. Between last season and this season, Gamel has struck out once every 4.7 plate appearances. It's going to be really, really hard for Gamel to hit for a high average with his strikeout rate. Jason Bay and Matt Kemp have been able to do it consistently, but that's about it, and if his offense is comparable to one of those guys then we should all be happy. As long as he still walks and hits 20+ home runs a year then I don't really care about his batting average. I think Mat will be a very good major league hitter. The hype that I keep reading about him here seems to be over the top, though. He could hit .270/.340/.460 this year and some people would be disappointed, which is too bad.

Gerut on the road: 2008 .296/.363/.546 909 OPS 2009 .310/.333/.586 919 OPS at Petco: 2008 .295/.340/.449 789 OPS 2009 .130/.167/.167 334 OPS Petco is not a fun place for a hitter. He's certainly good insurance if an outfielder gets hurt and a very good option if the Brewers feel they need to platoon Hart against right-handed pitchers. It certainly looks like a good trade.

Has anyone else noticed that Gamel is hitting .250 with 16! strikeouts over the last 10 games?

Yeah, the whole thing that iPhone/iPod touch apps need to be programmed on an intel based Apple computer is crap, though it forced us to buy a mac mini for the office so if their objective was to sell more macs then it probably worked. I'm having one of my programmers work on an iPhone app so I don't have to go through it. You can download the JDE from the blackberry site along with some sample apps. Any tutorials for blackberry apps are very limited, though, and there really are no books on it. The funny thing is that I saw at least four iPhone app "how to" books at Barnes and Noble last week. More blackberries were sold during the first quarter of this year than any other smart phone, including the iPhone. People seem to overlook that.

I don't have any work for you, but do have a suggestion. If you have a background in java then look into building some Blackberry apps, even if you just do it on your own to get your feet wet. I'm half way through our site's first blackberry app and can see how the smartphone media has a lot of potential for businesses. The need for Blackberry/iPhone/smartphone developers is going to increase mightily in the next year.

It's always nice to find new ways to end the game. The Brewers' position players haven't hit a home run since Tuesday.

Mercedes had a 60/6 K/BB ratio in 53 innings as a reliever last season at West Virginia so he's kind of picking up where he left off. Check out his second half numbers from last season on minorleaguesplits.com, they're pretty darn good. It appears that he's found the bullpen to his liking.

yeah, walks are high in April, but the Brewers have been higher than just about everyone else. It doesn't matter if walks across the league are low and the Brewers are the worst or if the walks across the league are high and the Brewers are the worst. It's going to lead to more runs allowed than most of the other teams and that's going to lead to more losses. I do appreciate your positive attitude, though. I hope you're right. ...and as I write this Seth McClung walks another batter...

If it wasn't any different than any other team then the Brewers wouldn't be second to last in the majors in walks/game. I don't see how that's like every other team. The league average is 3.8 walks per game. The Brewers are at 4.85 after tonight, and that assumes they don't walk anyone else this game. They were at 4.15 last year after 13 games last season. That's the difference between middle of the pack and nearly the worst in the league. This is not like last year, it's worse.

Rhodes and Weathers - back to back 39-year-old relievers. Are you kidding me?

I was at the T-Rats game today, as far as I could tell Lawrie was fine. He coached first base for the rest of the game after he was taken out. If anyone heads over to a T-Rats game be aware that the stadium gun is likely a good three to four MPH slow. I was behind home plate and the Cards radar gun was consistently reading that much higher than the stadium. The umpiring in today's game was amazingly bad. The home plate ump called a clear double off of the wall a foul ball and then later on he inexplicably called a foul ball back to the screen a ball instead of a strike. The Quad Citites team not a good team, pitching or hitting. Very few prospects of any kind and no top guys.

Apparently, Astros beat writer Richard Justice thinks the Astros are rock solid. Frankly, I can't find a single weakness with the 2009 Astros I really don't want to underestimate any opponent, but, really? Not a single weakness? PECOTA has the Astros pegged for 67 wins, by the way.

My thoughts on Escobar, since I have been at the last three games. I think he looks pretty good, though while he made a great play in the field, he also seemed to not look as smooth on the easy ones. Who knows, small sample, but he seemed like the kind of guy who had a flair for the tough plays instead of just getting everything. I kind of thought the piroette wasn't needed, but the range that he showed to get there was great. As for the near home run on Thursday, I was at that game and out in right center field. It was a ground rule double from my vantage point. Weeks missed a line drive today that most high schoolers would have caught. Trot Nixon looks past washed up. I will concur that Chase Wright looked nothing short of bad. I really hope he doesn't show up in Milwaukee this season.

A guy who runs Baseball Info Solutions (www.baseballinfosolutions.com) passed on some defensive stats to me that probably pertain to this thread so I'll post them here. BSI tracks just about everything that happens during a baseball game. One thing they track are "misplays", which are defined as a) a play not ruled as an error and b) lost an opportunity for an out or allowed a baserunner to advance. They also track "good plays", which uses the opposite definition of part B of a misplay. They aren't stats to define a player, just something to use along with other defensive metrics. Some players, like Cano and O. Cabrera actually led their league in both categories. Anyway, Weeks led the majors in misplays+errors by a 2B with 59. In fact, only Mark Reynolds was worse in all of baseball with 67. Hurting Weeks some was that he led the majors in "not making a DP due to bad throw" with seven of those. So if you thought he did that a lot last season, now you have proof. Again, these aren't stats that show a player is definitely a bad fielder or a good fielder. It's just something else to look at which wouldn't be included in a range factor.

Hey, it could be worse. The Blue Jays just got bumped to a third round pick for Burnett.

The homeplate programming shakeup was due to Sirius management taking over and XM management getting the boot. Jeff Erickson's fantasy baseball show will not be back this year because the "brains" at Sirius don't want any fantasy sports radio shows. The show actually did well on XM, but the Sirius guys really won't even consider it because it doesn't fit what they want.

I know there are a lot of youngsters on this board so I'll mention some blasts from the past. Sunday October 3rd, 1982, Brewers 10, Orioles 2. It didn't have a comeback like today, but it still got the Brewers into the playoffs in a game they had to win to avoid a one game playoff. September 29th 1982, Brewers 6, Red Sox 3. This actually was the Ryan Braun game until this past week. Ned Yost breaks a 3-3 tie with a three run home run in the ninth inning to take the magic number down to one. April 10th, 1980, Brewers 9, Red Sox 4. Opening Day saw Sixto Lezcano hit a ninth inning grand slam. The Brewers had won 95 games in 1979 and a lot of publications (this was pre-internet!) were predicting the Brewers to win the division. The opening day win and the win the next day, two grand slams in one inning, had people buzzing about the Brewers like never before. Personally, I'd rank today's win right there with the Easter Sunday game. The younger people on the board may not have been around for that game, but it was the most surreal game that I've ever experienced. It was game where you really had to stop for a moment and try to figure out if what just happened was real. Third would be the Oct. 3 game which got the Brewers into the playoffs in 1982, which I watched on TV as a fifth grader. It's only behind this year's version because they led from the beginning to end.

Regular: jsonline brewers blog (for info, not Tom's stinky opinion) brewcrewball.com baseballprospectus.com unfiltered minorleagueball.com (sickles) www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/

Based on the numbers that I looked up, I believe that his approach changed last season. Post all-star break last year he had a .048 walk rate, this year it's .043 for the entire season. Hart's OBP was 60 points higher than his BA in July of last year because he got plunked three times that month, his approach at the plate wasn't significantly better. His walk rate was still just .054 during that month. He actually was hit by a pitch 13 times last season compared to just five times this season in 100 more AB. That's something that I just noticed now, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's because Hart is being pitched away more this season as teams and pitchers realize he'll swing at those pitches and they don't have to come inside. That would also be a factor in his drop in power since fewer of those pitches on the outside are going to be hit for home runs. As for where he's hitting the ball... Hart in 2008 hit 33%FB, 43%GB 18%LD Hart in 2007 hit 36%FB, 40%GB 17%LD (stats courtesy of bp.com) You're talking about a 3% diference out of 498 balls put in play, or roughly 15 batted balls, were ground balls this season instead of fly balls. I'd agree that it's something to investigate, but I wouldn't come to any conclusions based on just that. He does have basically the same approach this season as he did for the second half of last season and this season is just a continuation of that. The only significant difference between this year and last year is his drop in slugging percentage. My opinion is that he's being pitched away form his power a lot more this year, more balls low and away, and that combined with a few more doubles going for triples and HR last season has caused the slugging dropoff. I completely agree that he's either been told or decided to swing at the first fastball in or near the strikezone. I just don't think that it's something that started this season, but instead is something he started doing last year. I think we'd need more pitch data so we could see if his approach has changed or if he's being pitched differently and that's causing the FB/GB/Power change. It's possible that he's taking a more cautious approach this season. I think it's also possible that mainly because of the way he's being pitched.

This all started happening in the middle of last season, it's not something new or a regression this year. Hart hit .200/.261/.467 in July last year so a monthlong slump isn't something that's never happened with him. This slump came after his blistering .336/.412/.618 June which really solidified him as the starting right fielder. Then opposing teams just realized that he can't hit a low and away slider or curveball and that's all he got. His adjustment was to start swinging at every fastball he saw so that he didn't get into situations where he was forced to hit a breaking ball. He went from 22 walks in his 214 AB prior to July 1st to just 8 walks over his 291 AB after July 1st. Believe it or not, his walk rate this season is actually *better* than what he did during the second half of last season. The difference between this year and last year is that his slugging percentage has dropped off. But if you look closer you'll notice that while the number of home runs hit is down, the number of doubles is up. It's quite possible that a few of those doubles went for home runs last season as well as a few extra triples which he had last year. While his slugging pct is down this year, it's not completely out of line with what he did last season. His approach at the plate is still the same as it was last season - don't pass up a fastball because you may not get another one to hit. When he's going well and making solid contact then he can hit .300. When he's in a funk then he looks really, really bad because he doesn't have the walks to fall back on. He's been basically the same player for the last 1.5 seasons so I don't think we're going to see a huge advance in the coming years. Still, the .830 OPS that he had at the end of August was still above the major league average for a starting RF. His approach at the plate may not have been good, but his production was. Unfortunately, it's that same approach that makes him suceptible to slumps like he's having now.

Derosa is already out today and Friday due to a strained calf that he suffered last night. I can't imagine the Cubs will take any chances with guys slipping and getting injured in the rain tonight. I certainly wouldn't think that Soriano will play and I could see a few other guys getting the night off as well. If I were the Cubs, I wouldn't pitch Harden on a night where he might slip while fielding a bunt and strain a groin or something. I don't know if they have another guy who could start besides him, but I wouldn't pitch Harden tonight. There are actually some scenarios where the Mets, Brewers and Astros are all close enough that the Cubs would be required to make up tonight's game and their missed game with Houston. Imagine the Cubs having to fly to NY for a game and then flying to Houston for a game the next day before flying home to start their playoff series the next day. It's a big longshot, but it's possible.

Why not get Torres ready now so he can come in during the eighth if Mota gets into trouble? I'd rather have Torres facing the tying run than Mota.

I'm of the opinion that pitch was not very good at all, it just fooled Prince. It was belt high over the middle of the plate. Good pitch in the sense that it fooled him, but the location was terrible.