Never Outhustled

I still have yet to read a single post by Thunnis where he has ever come close to stating Mark has "resisted" changing his delivery, let alone being uncoachable. In fact, he's only continually added weight that Mark did everything he was ased to do, yet still had problems anyways. Thunnis stated that Rogers took off last season only after the team met Rogers half way instead of continuing to force Rogers to completely correct his mechanics. Rogers broke down weeks later.

I wouldn't mind if melvin said he wanted to reduce strikeouts, but only if he said he was also hellbent on reducing lazy flyballs, slowrollers to the SS, and infield pop-ups.

Rios may be slightly more established, but Hart is a year younger and put up better offensive numbers that Rios and was a level higher each year at the same age. Hart also steals more bases. Defensively the edge does go to Rios though. You could do this same comparison with Bill Halls minor league stats and 6 dozen other players who all outperformed him in the minor. Those players couldn't even begin to compare to Hall now. Hart is a good player, with good ability, but he simply doesn't have the awestriking batspeed of Rios.Thats why Rios has always been considered an elite prospect. and Hart's already with the team...i dont think you should ever trade for a player who might be just a slight bit better than what you've already got Is Hart being considered for the CF job? Has there been a rule change on the number of starting OFs allowed?http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif This isn't an either or proposition, and we're not trading Hart to get Rios. I want Rios to start next to Hart. Toronto is dealing Rios because they have a surplus in the OF, and Rios has the most value. They have Wells in CF, underrated Reed johnson in RF, and Riccardi favorite prospect Adam lind in LF. They also have a quality reserve in Matt Stairs. Johnson is the backup CF. Toronto needs pitching and a longterm answer at SS. The Brewers have an extra SS, already have pretty good pitching even before adding Suppan. The Brewers offense, however, finished just 14th in Runs Scored and 15th in OPS, and that was inspite of having Carlos Lee carrying a 897 OPS for 2/3s of the season with the team. If they're creative, these teams are a match.

I'm fairly certain none of us know how resistant to change, if he was at all, Rogers was to his new delivery. Sure, unless we read Mark's weekly diary he wrote last year, or listen to the things Thunnis has said, who is an insider, or read the countless other articles written about Rogers.

The Rios of the first half of 2006: .330/.383/.585 was the Rios that the Jays had been waiting for. Thats completely true, but makes him look like he only had a good half season. Rios hit .333/.371/.606 in the final month of the season.

I just want to add that I would love to get Suppan. I don't know that it's going to kill our payroll flexibility, because the kids won't be getting really expensive until after the deal ends, and in between that, some dollars are coming off the books (Jenkins, Mench). That's why I think the Brewers have the money to do this. I agree with all of this, and would just like to add that the teams payroll will likely increase $7-14 million next year. That should give the team plenty of flexability to keep the young talent.

Perhaps they need to reavaluate how they fix mechanics all the way to the top. If Mark Rogers wasn't so resistent to change and would simply realize his mechanics were terrible, he might not have these shoulder issues. Theres not a pro scout out there who thought Rogers mechanics were right. Why would someone ask the Brewers to let Rogers become the next Kerry Wood, a complete waste of talent? Rogers was only willing to meet the team half way on his mechanical changes, so he was still throwing with bad mechanics. I got the impression that the Brewers thought they were getting an extremely coachable, competitive player when they drafted Rogers. Knowing what the Brewers know now about his stuberness, I'm sure they'd love a re-do.

Toronto seems to really value Mcgowan, and its not that important to me to get him. Can we get Ty Taubenhiem back instead?

Well, one slant to consider there is that the ChiSox traded away a power hitter in a deal that nearly every baseball observer said we fleeced them, and the next season they won the WS. Podsednik was a poor defender in LF, so I doubt he had much to do with the White Sox getting 1 of the best pitched season from there staff in this era. There pitching was absolutly off the charts that year, there running offense simply was along for the ride, IMO. The Brewers have a chance to have a good team ERA, but I doubt it will be dominant. They'll need an offense that ranks in the upper half of the league to compete for the playoffs. They finished just 14th in Runs Scored last year, despite having Carlos Lee for 2/3s of the season.

One other thing that I was pondering.. Suppan appears a little overweight to me. Those guys tend to hit a wall and go downhill really quickly. I suppose that David Wells could be an exception, but he has been on and off the disabled list for the past several years. I'm suprised you see Suppan as overweight, as he's known for his work ethic and commitment to conditioning. Melvin stated early on that he's willing to go after Suppan at his age because of this.

Penny was win better than Suppan last year, will be 29 and costs less. Yes it depedns what teh Dodgers want, but he's clearly a better fit. Doesn't Penny's contract expire soon, which would cause him then to cost more?

I like that offer UWRyan, Gord Ash drafted both of those Toronto players. I think we'd have to offer more value, but I'm certainly willing to do that. The increase in team OPS we'd get from the difference of Hardy to Rios would be dramatic.

I sorry if this has already been covered, but it seems like it would be better for the Brewers to try to trade for Brad Penny at the 10-12 million a year he is making than pay the same for Jeff Suppan. Maybe I am off here but Penny is far and away better than Suppan in my mind. Sure Penny is a little better, (though Suppan was better the last 2 seasons) But he's not a FA. I'm not sure if I want to give up quality players to get Penny, because he might be slightly better.

I sure don't see Rios as a 900-1000 OPS guy. He could be, of course, but his first half last year looks like the outlier. If he were 22-23, I'd agree, but at 26, I don't. Rios had a 865 OPS last season (including a 977 OPS in Sept.) in 450 ABs as a 25year old. You think think thats the outlier? Your saying he was maxxed out as a 24 year old. Al, I'm suprised by your stance on this, as its not consistent with your opinion of Bill Hall at the same age.

And anyone who says we can easily trade Suppan in two years should take a look at the Brewers current outfield situation. Do you think if the Brewers were not asking for a major league starting pitcher Mench and Jenkins would be dealt already? I do. If the team was just looking to move salary to re-sign young players those guys would be gone, and the same is the case for Suppan in 2-3 years, if he even gets a 4 year deal.

I guess it is possible for a "market correction" next offseason. I disagree, because I don't view this as a new labor agreement, but the same labor agreement extended.

If history repeats itself they won't go up next year and the marginal player contracts may even go down a little. It really depends on the people on the market though. When in history did this even happen when there was labor peace? Are you expecting a sudden drop in MLB revenue? Based on early Brewer ticket sales, the brewers revenue will continue to increase. I would think the will be the case in other cities too, as most teams have created more buzz than the Brewers this offseason.

Rios is the perfect trade target for the Brewers. He would do what the team has failed to do this offseason, raise the teams OPS. Rios was outstanding until getting his appendix removed, and was outstanding again for the final month after he recovered. I doubt he'll have to have his appendix removed again http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif Rios is similar to what Bill Hall was last year. A toolsy player with little past production, and some doubted he could repeat his 1st good year. Hall built on it, and I think Rios will too. I see Rios as a perenial 900+ OPS performer (maybe even a 1.000+ OPS), and could easily be an asset defensively in CF at Miller Park.

I'm OK with signing Suppan, because waiting until next year to sign a similar player would likely cost the team about $14 million per year.

I don't think signing Suppan should be significantly influenced by our future signability of Sheets. I think it makes a huge impact on our future signability of all are players. If they sign Suppan and the team improves, the team makes more $$ and that will increase future budgets. If the team takes doesn't improve this year, it could cripple, or at least hinder the team financially in the future.

Initially, I was scared of paying Suppan $10 million 4 years from now, but then I realized that in 4 years that will be chump change. MLB revenue, according to ESPN radio, has increased 11% each of the last 5 years. With labor peace already at hand for the next several years I see nothing but prosperity in baseballs future. This will lead to continual escalation of player salaries. Suppan will likely be in decline around 2009-2010. However, I'd guess conservatively that he'd still be 1 of the top 100-150 starting pitchers. This means someone will still have a need for him in their rotation, despite the $10 million salary. That salary by then will likely be the going rate for marginal starters.

Lock is a strong word. How about extremely likely? Greg Aquino is extremely likely to make the team, because its extremely likely 1 of the top 12 pitchers on this team will open the season on the DL. Thats based on what has happened historically to all teams.

I like my pitchers to not want to leave the game. Considering Royster is/was a buffoon, that makes me like Dejean more, not less. I totally agree. Dejean was a hero that season, he said to Royster the things we all wanted to say. That, and he's a pretty good pitcher. I think its pretty unfair some judge Dejean by one incident, and also think its unfair to judge him by his career numbers, considering how much time he has spent with Colorado.

Mench's value is the same as it was before he played here... Well at least we've identified the problem. Next we just have to find out how we got stuck with him in the 1st place.

I second the Weathers motion. He had alot of success working ith Billy Castro last in Milwaukee.