Never Outhustled

Moustakas is represented by Boras, correct? Does that make people think the Brewers won't take him? The rumor in an aerlier thread here was Milwaukke was trying to figure out exactly what his contract demands were. #7 slot money is great cash, but what does he think of it. I'm really holding out hope they decide in the end he's signable, as he's a terrific prospect.

Players who will be available at the deadline are most pending FAs. The can be found at MLB4U.com. Some interesting relievers include Eric Gagne and Bob Wickman.

The cutoff is usually 100-105 days What source are you getting that from? The cutoff has never been less than 123. Like a said above, Doug Davis missed Super 2 with 2 years and 139 days. Matt Wise was not arby eligible in 2005, he had 2 years 132 days service time.

I believe that there are 170 service days in a year. Basically serving just over half a season makes you Super 2. Theres 183 days in this season. It varies from year to year. 172 days is considered a full season. Its fact that Doug Davis missed Super 2 status with 2 years and 139 days of service. He missed by 1 day. Melvin may say that Weeks will be arby eligible, but he also said that about Davis, and Hall this last offseason. He's fibbing, again. A player with at least two but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and he ranks in the top 17 percent in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season. I think whats confusing is the 86 game requirement. Your mistaking the 86 days for needing 2 years and 86 days, its really 2 years plus the Top 17% of those without a 3rd year. Take a player Spurling. He has a couple of years of service time. He might even have most of a 3rd year, however he isn't super 2 eligible unless he stays in the bigs for 86 days this year.

Chad Robinson has signed, per BA. Great addition. Costs the Brewers 500K, which is late 2nd round money. Things are looking great everywhere for The Crew.

2 of Brauns regular season homers were off Chan Ho Park. last nights was off of Blake Hawksworth, who was once a top prospect who had fallen, and is now regaining his luster. Todays was off of Troy Cate, who is unknown to me. If someone really wanted to know who he hit the other 6 off of, they could just comb through the Link Reports.

Chad Robinson has signed, per BA. Great addition. Costs the Brewers 500K, which is late 2nd round money. Things are looking great everywhere for The Crew.

The Super 2 deadline is not June 1st. It would be closer to June 18th. Weeks is likely to be a Super 2 and he came up on June 11th. According to the information here June 1 should be a safe time to call up Braun, and Weeks will not be a Super 2, unless theres a new low. June 8th is the most lekely call up date for Braun. Compared to past cases of Hall and Doug Davis, this info appears correct. I guess I could just post part of the article for future reference . -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Q: Dave of Milwaukee - Tom- If the article below is accurate, then the Brewers feel getting close to making the playoffs is just as good as getting there. Personally, I think it is pathetic if it's true. What are your thoughts? Thanks. From The Sporting News: "The Real Reason Ryan Braun Is Not In The Major Leagues Yet." It isn't what Ned Yost says, or Doug Melvin says, or Gord Ash says. Ryan Braun is NOT still in the minors for any of the following reasons: a.) He occasionally airmails a throw to first. b.) The organization thinks there's a chance that he'll fall on his face. c.) He needs more "seasoning". b.) Tony Graffanino and Craig Counsell are experts in Manager Hypnosis. Here's the real reason why Ryan Braun is still in the minors (and why you WILL see him in the bigs in approximately three to four weeks): The short answer is that it will save the Brewers franchise millions, or even tens of millions, of dollars. But it's gonna take me a while to explain. Let me start with the financial story of Miguel Cabrera, and how the Marlins shrewdly delayed his surefire path to becoming a millionaire. At the start of the 2003 season, just shy of his 20th birthday, it was already obvious that Miguel Cabrera was one of the best of prospects in baseball. You might say that his outstanding minor league numbers were forcing the issue for the Marlins, as MCab was establishing himself as a potential future star. But he didn't open the season with the big club, and he didn't get called in up in May. Didn't get called up in early June, either. He got called up in mid-June, spent the rest of the season with the big club, posted an incredibly-robust-for-a-20-year-old .793 OPS, hit 12 homers in 87 games, and helped the Marlins to the World Series title. But also incredibly important to the Marlins' future bottom line was something in the fine print: Cabrera accumulated 101 service days in the big leagues in '03. Had he spent just 20-30 days more in the big leagues in '03, Cabrera would've hit arbitration one full year sooner. But more on that later. Of course over the next two years Cabrera spent full seasons at the big league level and established himself one of the best young hitters in the game. Thus, after the end of the 2005 season, Cabrera had accumulated 2.101 years of major league service time. (A quick, math-filled two paragraphs about how service time is calculated): The numbers after the decimal don't indicate percentages of a year; rather, they represent actual days. For example, Milton Bradley entered this season with 5.169 days of major league service time - five full years, and 169 additional days. In other words, just three days shy of the requisite six years to becoming a free agent. Those three days are why he won't be a free agent until after '07, instead of after '06. There are around 183 ACTUAL days in the major league season. But for the purposes of contracts, there are 172 COUNTING days in a full season. If a player spends a full season in the majors, he gets credited with a full year - 172 days. If a player was brought up during the second week of the season, he could still possibly spend 172 days with the team and get his full season of credit. So, if a player spends part of two seasons in the majors - say, 90 days the first year, and 100 days in year 2 - he's got 1.018 years of service time. Now, back to Cabrera. Here's where it gets a little complicated: Once a player has three years of service time, he qualifies for arbitration. But arbitration is also extended to players with ALMOST three years of service time - those players in the top 17% of service time amongst players between 2 and 3 years. These are players are known as "Super 2" arbitration cases. (This rule is intended to prevent teams from BLATANTLY doing what the Brewers are doing subtly with Braun, and the Giants are doing with Tim Lincecum - basically squeezing an extra year of cost control out of a player by keeping him just days shy reaching arbitration one year sooner). So, guys with 2.160-2.171 years of service time (remember, that's 2 years and 160-171 days) are guaranteed to be Super Twos and hit arbitration after that season. Historically, the low end of the top 17% cutoff for Super Two status is 2.123, and the high end is 2.140. Therefore, for a team to be safe, it won't call up a super prospect until June 1 - when sixty service time days are already in the books. That way, the prospect will hit arbitration after almost four years, instead of after almost three. Now, why does this only happen with super-stud, sure-fire MLB successes, like Cabrera, Braun, and Lincecum? Because with a mediocre prospect, he'll surely bounce back and forth between the big club and AAA a few times. There's plenty of time to juggle his arbitration "clock" as the team so desires. (Contrary to popular belief, service-time doesn't run indefinitely after the first call-up - if the Royals sent Alex Gordon back down, he would stop accumulating MLB service time until he was recalled). But with Braun, or a Cabrera-type talent, it's very likely that he'll hit well enough right away and make it politically impossible (and, of course, detrimental to the team), to send him back down. You can't just send a healthy .850-.900 OPS guy back down to the minors. Now, finally, to the financial aspect of this: *Miguel Cabrera made the prorated major league minimum once he was promoted to the big leagues in 2003. In 2004, he made 320K. In 2005, he made 370K. Now, keep in mind, if he spent just one more month at the big league level in '03, he'd a Super Two arbitration case at this point. Instead, he was still under complete club control. Therefore, in 2006, he made 472K. Now, how much is Miguel Cabrera making this year, after finally reaching arbitration, with 3.101 years of service time? $7.4 million! And since two of the factors in arbitration case awards are previous salary and service time, almost every player gets a raise in each year of arbitration. Cabrera is guaranteed to make more next year - perhaps 10 million, maybe more. So because the Marlins were very financially savvy with their calculated promotion of Miguel Cabrera, their six years of cost control will look like this: 2004. 320K 2005. 370K 2006. 472K 2007. 7.4 million 2008. 10 million (a guess) 2009. 13 million (a harder-to-predict guess) If they had promoted him ONE MONTH earlier in '03, that looks instead like these (these are educated guesses now; exact figures for this hypothetical would be impossible): 2004. 320K 2005. 370K 2006. 5 million (Super Two arby-eligible, and coming off a great year) 2007. 9 million (A greater reward, after factoring in his new higher salary in '06) 2008. 11 million (Same as above) 2009. 14 million (Same as above) That's a cost savings of $8 MILLION for the Marlins in the first example vs. the second. Again, these are just hypothetical figures. But they are educated guesses, and they do correlate with the obvious ballooning in salary when a player, especially an outstanding one such as Cabrera (and Braun?) hits arbitration, especially considering the league's economic boom and ensuing inflation - which trickles down to arby awards as well. Eight million dollars, or any amount near it, is no small amount of money to a financially-conscious team like the Brewers. For my money, I think Doug Melvin is factoring these variables in when he weighs whether to bring Ryan Braun up from the minors. Braun's numbers in the first month of the AAA season (most notably, 8 homers and only 9 strikeouts) suggest that he is the best hitting prospect in minor league baseball, especially now that 21-year-old Billy Butler of the Royals has been promoted. Braun is the one minor league prospect that I would virtually guarantee will post several .900 OPS seasons in the majors. But when he made four errors in spring training, it gave the team the excuse they needed to send him down to the minors to open the season - even though he was hitting the cover off the ball, and striking out at an incredibly low rate for a power hitter. "This will give him an opportunity to gain seasoning, and to work on his defense," the team said at the time. A: Tom Haudricourt - The Brewers will bring Braun up when they think he is ready. I'm not saying money is no issue, but when you haven't won in 25 years, saving money is secondary to making the playoffs. I think owner Mark Attanasio has shown he will spend money to do things to improve the club. Is Dave from Milwaukee a Brewerfan.net member? If not, he should be. We could use even more like him.

I don't have high expectations for him, and idn't then either. I wish we had Ty Taubenhiem back, but I won't complain too much, as Gross is better than I expected, making it a good trade anyway.

Quote: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Who plays LF if we trade Mench? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hart. Ok, I'll take the bait. Who then plays RF versus LHP?

Technically, we only had that one summer to sign Pence -- he went to a four-year school that fall after he was drafted in June. We drafted Pence in round 40 after his freshman year at a Juco, Texarkana, and followed his huge sophmore season there. He went unsigned, then spent a year at a 4 year school, Texas-Arlington, and was drafted by the Astros in round 2 in 2004.

I think the people posted are all excellent choices, but Casey1992 has to be part of the search list. he's not only of extreme intellect, but also seems emotionally devoid, which I think is a good quality for a GM.

Just curious, because BA has him ranked at 75 has caused you to change your mind? PGCC has had Haydel ranked in the top 100 for a couple of weeks now, with direct quotes that he could be a possible sandwich pick. BAs earlier article abour DFEs made it sound as though the DFE class was Waldon and Latos up top and then everyone else on a lower level, so I guess thats why I was leery. It wasn't a disrespect to PGCC, if it was BA putting Haydel at 88, and then PGCC at 75, it would have changed my mind just the same. Like I said, I was wrong, I guess I read between the lines something that wasn't there in that earlier BA article.

Steve Sollmann's OBP is .467 -- the Youkilis comparisons aren't far off, although Youkilis debuted with Boston age 25 in 2004, and Sollmann is 25 and in AA, but there's definitely something to look at there If we're looking for a late blooming 2B-3B with outstanding on-base skills, very little power, and can steal some bases, why not Esteban German . I think thats a pretty good comparison, and a player I'd love to have.

Given the choice betweem Oden and Durant for the Bucks . I'd pick Durant. The talk is Odens defense will fill the Bucks need, but don't forget that Durant was the most dominant rebounder in the country, and the Bucks finished dead last in rebounding.

Haydel could be a supplemental first rounder, which could mean upper six figures. I'll happily admit I was wromg here, Haydel will cost very good money to sign. BA has him now ranked all the way up to 75.

Nixs nalue at this age would be similar to Branyans when we aquired him from Cleveland for cash, where he was also playing at AAA at the same age.

Mench is bad, but so is Lew Ford. Mench for Neshek? What the Twins really need is a 3B, but we can't help them there.

Ford is more than ready to move up, would flopping him with Fermaint make sense? Chuck has struggles so far this year and was cold to end last year. He really needs a jumpstart, and he too talented to let sit.

Far and away the most disappointing DFE we lost has to be Hunter Pence.

The Brewers minor leaguers win by a combined score of 37-12 tonight. Not bad.

I mean guys there is no way the Royals trade Grienke. The guy has one of the best arms in the AL, and the Royals have no reason not to be patient with him. Greinke was a top prospect more because of his mind than his arm. His arm is pretty average, and his head is now completely screwed up. His stuff doesn't profile well as a reliever, as he relies on control and mixing 4 pitches, and that would be difficult to transfer to the pen. He can't even make it work on a regular rotation right now. He doesn't have a dominant pitch to rely on, like most good relievers. I'm all for the Brewers adding to there bullpen, but Greinke is an unneeded risk for us.

I don't believe in jinxes because its unlucky to be superstitious, but I do think its just fun to mention no hitters without using forms of the words no and hitters, and its fun to blame others for jinxing the unprobable event.

except that they might spend it all on DFEs as they've got a great crop this year. While this years crop is better than most, these guys are still only considered to be roughly 5th round caliber guys, which isn't that expensive. The Brewers sign numerous DFEs every year, and that hasn't effected drafts that did include 2nd rounders. Also, I think Moustakas is nuts to turn down #7 slot money. In case he hasn't realized, the slot money shrinks every year. He'd really be taking a big gamble by waiting 3 years in hopes that he can get more, despite having less leverage.

I like the idea of cappelan starting, it could increase his trade value.