I'm with you on Shaw due to age. I understand what you're saying about Knebel, and relievers in general, but the four years of control takes him to age 29 which is right in the middle of his prime. As is the case with any extension, it would need to be a good deal. If it is, then I'd be okay with extending him. Reliever numbers are volatile because of the small number of innings they pitch each season. One or two bad outings can seriously inflate numbers. Also, many relievers just aren't that good and that's why they ended up in the 'pen instead of the rotation. Knebel has great stuff, and he has a history of being able to control it, as is evidenced by his career MiLB WHIP of 0.93. He may not always be as dominant as he was this year, but he is unlikely to "go Turnbow" on us. Part of the "draft and develop" strategy should be extending good young players. That allows you to "control" players for 7-8 years instead of six, which is very valuable. But you still need to keep developing. Let's say we extend Arcia this offseason, and in a few years we have another good SS who is MLB ready. We then have the option of trading away Arcia, who by that time will be an MLB veteran who is just entering his prime and still has multiple years left of a team-friendly contract. From that trade, we would be able to stock our farm with multiple high-level prospects. All development can't come solely from the draft. Agreed, Arcia and Davies fit that criteria and I would not have an issue extending those two as they have shown improvement since they arrived and I'm a sucker for a upward trending graphs! But Shaw, Knebal and Santana I have my doubts. Maybe it's the ghost of Bill Hall bothering me! It seems like every year we see a player perform outstanding, last year it was Villar, and everyone starts promoting an extension. Yes, Shaw, Knebal and Santana performed very well last year and I sincerely hope that continues, but to run up and offer serious money based on one years performance is reckless. Let's see if Shaw and Knebal can duplicate last year, if they can great, look at extending then. May cost more, but at least we would have track record of more than one year. As far as Santana, that is this teams biggest trade chip.