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JohnBriggs12

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Everything posted by JohnBriggs12

  1. JohnBriggs12
    Exactly. If Burns and his 6.17 ERA are below replacement value, what is Parra and his 6.54 over a larger sample? I wouldn't guarantee anyone a rotation spot other than Gallardo for 2010 at this point. Bush could still secure one over these final few weeks. With Looper it's just a matter if they think they can get an upgrade for the same or lesser money in the FA market. Suppan in his final contract year will likely get 10-12 starts but then all bets are off (see Bill Hall). Parra might get one by default or he could go in a deal along with a position player. They could also keep Vargas and turn him back into a starter, and I wouldn't completely rule out Narveson either. Any way you look at it, it's pretty bleak. They are going to have to consider fast tracking some guys now in the lower levels.
  2. JohnBriggs12
    Ginter fanned a lot more than McGehee So far he's walked at a much higher rate than Hillenbrand, but even if he's Hillenbrand, I'll take it. Hillenbrand was a productive hitter. McGehee makes solid contact a lot because he swings at good pitches to hit whether it's the first pitch (he's hitting .413 and slugging .870 on the 1st pitch) or the 5th. He doesn't take cookies to "work the count" nor does he doesn't expand the zone. There are spots in the batting order where I want aggressive hitters like McGehee. He's also not a "Sell High" guy yet. His value has risen, but not anywhere near the level it would be if he kept up his current numbers over 3 or 400 more AB's.
  3. JohnBriggs12
    They should give Narveson some starts just to see how he'd do. No reason not to use these games for evaluation.
  4. JohnBriggs12
    Melvin's downfall started after the 2006 season. That season they fell out of the race in large part to injuries to Sheets and Tomo Ohka. As many will recall, they cycled through a series of replacements, none of whom did the job until (ironically given his struggles this year) Villanueva gave them some quality starts late in the year. They (Melvin and Attanasio) incorrectly pinpointed the problem as a durability issue on the major league staff instead of a depth/quality issue in their minor league system. Their solution was to go out and pay a durable but thoroughly average at best pitcher (Suppan). They should have demanded accountability from Jack Z and Reid Nichols for the dearth of pitching talent being produced internally. They even ignored pitching with their first pick in 2007 opting for a redundant Matt LaPorta in a year when as I recall they had no 2nd round pick.
  5. JohnBriggs12
    Or vice versa. McGehee could play LF too. The move they have to make is Weeks to CF. I agree Hardy's trade value is extremely low. He'd have to be packaged with someone else.
  6. JohnBriggs12
    The Brewers are going to have tough time selling tickets as it is for 2010. I would rather hold onto him until at least after the 2010 season. If he validates this year's Pujols-like season, with another 40+ HR, 130 RBI, .310/.415/.605 season, his value could actually go up even with just a year on his deal left. Not many 1st baseman get value in return because it's not that hard to find good production at the position and he's still in Pujols' shadow. But another monster year and the buzz nationally will increase by leaps and bounds. It's that national buzz that makes teams pony up real value. Then if no replacement emerges from within or comes back in the trade, they could go out and get a guy like Konerko who will be 35 and a FA in 2011, and probably reasonable on a very short term deal. That should buy enough time for Lawrie (yes I know Lawrie's been at 2B, but ultimately he could end up at 1st if he hits like he's been touted to) to take over in 2012.
  7. JohnBriggs12
    Melvin needs to go as the minuses are outweighing the positives and after 7 seasons at the helm, the outlook going forward is frankly not very bright. There is no young pitching on the horizon until late 2011 at the earliest and while there is a lot of blame to go around for that (scouting, farm director, minor league pitching coaches, etc), Melvin was in charge and for a small market team not to develop young pitching as the number one priority, that in itself is cause for dismissal. True, Melvin and Jack Z hit on a few everyday players, but Melvin stood pat and refused to deal any of them for pitching even when he had replacements ready to come up, and now several have seen their value in the market decline tremendously as is the case with Hardy who is now floundering in AAA. Toss in 2 less than inspired choices for manager, 2 terrible large contracts (Hall and Suppan), and there's just no case that he should be brought back.
  8. JohnBriggs12
    While it's possible Counsell didn't make it through waivers, it's aging veterans that generally do get dealt in August because teams don't see them as difference makers and pass on them on the waiver wire. That's how the Brewers got Durham last year and Weathers this year. When I started this thread I was well aware he needed to clear waivers so the thread is based on that assumption.
  9. JohnBriggs12
    No Brownstein and Farris still behind slugs like Brewer, Haydel and Dykstra? Can't put much credibility in that list.
  10. JohnBriggs12
    Throw in the towel already. Clear the decks of the 35 and over crowd (doing them a favor if you can by sending them to contenders), and let the youngsters and those with a potential future role on the team play out the season.
  11. JohnBriggs12
    Let's face it, as good as Counsell's been there's absolutely no reason at his age he should be playing a month and a half of meaningless baseball. The same can be said for Cameron, Catalanotto, Hoffman, Weathers and Kendall all of whom are at least 35. Do those guys a favor and try to find teams in contention that could use them or if not (as is likely in the case of Kendall), just let them go. Let McGehee, Escobar, Bourgeios, Rivera, and others that could figure in 2010 get time on the field.
  12. JohnBriggs12
    Cherry pick? Wills and Brock broke SB records my friend. Brock is in the HOF based almost entirely on his SB. Coleman surpassed 100 three straight years. Since you brought up Raines, I'll counter that with Aparicio who's in the HOF with his career .311 OBP. My post said "generally" and didn't preclude exceptions like Henderson or Raines. Even Molitor never took a ton of walks.
  13. JohnBriggs12
    Their starting 2B Getz is on DL with oblique strain and even healthy, he's lacks the experience that Counsell would bring and Counsell's numbers are actually better this year too.. Replacement Jayson Nix is marginal both offensively and defensively. Lillibridge is awful. Even after the Peavy deal, Sox are pretty well stocked with AA level pitching that might interest the Brewers who lack much above A ball.
  14. JohnBriggs12
    Did you think they'd want Kendall instead? Seriously, if Melvin's not out there trying to peddle Hoffman, (yes) Weathers, Counsell, Catalanotto, Cameron, Looper, (I'll leave out the guys there's no market for as we all know who they are), he's missing an opportunity to load up on some minor leaguers, one or two that might help down the road.
  15. JohnBriggs12
    Let's take a look at the BA/OBP of 3 of the greatest base stealers of all time: Lou Brock: .293/.343 Maury Wills: .281/.330 Vince Coleman: .264/.324 While Farris of course is not in that category, with 59 steals in 64 attempts, through 107 games, for this year relative to his competition, he is comparable. You will note that none of those guys had exceptional OBP relative to their BA. My point is that it is unfair to label him as not having plate discipline because his walk total is relatively low. Great base stealers don't generally walk a lot because pitchers don't want to give a guy 2nd base. The game plan is to throw them strikes at all cost. Ricky Henderson is a notable exception but he also had the dimension of plus power. If I had to guess I'd say Farris got off to a slow start this year because he took strikes early in counts trying to increase his walk totals, and got behind in a lot of counts, making him more defensive. Since the All Star break (when he's hitting .335 in 47 games), I'd surmise he's become more aggressive earlier in counts. That's not poor discipline, it's a smart mature approach. That's why I think Farris needs to move up considerably on the 50 list (I'd have him in the 20-25 range). That he's still in A ball has more to do with the Brewer organization tendency to value keeping a core together (Farris, Gindl, Schafer) than it does reflect on their ability to have success at a higher level. I think Farris belongs with Gindl and Schafer as guys to watch.
  16. JohnBriggs12
    memo to X cellence, "non-prospect" Farris is 5 for 5 with 2 more steals (now 59) tonight.
  17. JohnBriggs12
    I heard Daron Sutton interviewed just after the Lopez deal. He basically said that from time to time he'll have lapses in concentration that admittedly can look bad but aren't the result of a lack of desire. Lopez apparently still has issues that are left over from a very tough upbringing. Sutton believed that on balance Lopez's strengths far outweigh the occasional lapses. Sutton believes he's also a good clubhouse guy.
  18. JohnBriggs12
    You're missing the real mistake Melvin made. True, he didn't get enough pitching, but pitching is hard to come by. The inconsistent offense of 2008 that was barely enough to get in the playoffs with Sabathia was certainly not going to be enough to overcome what we all saw as a mediocre pitching staff. Not only did he need to deal either Hardy, Hart or even Cameron (3 of the most inconsistent hitters) or a combination of the 3, he needed to go out and add another bat that was more consistent and capable of better overall production. Abreu went very cheaply. Given Hall's contract, he had no choice but to give him one more chance. Next year they won't have that issue. Next years pitching staff will look a lot like this years. They may swap out Looper for another arm. They may add a pitcher in a deal, but basically it is what it is. They need to concentrate on putting a better overall offensive team on the field. Find a way to have both Lopez and Weeks in the lineup. Upgrade the catching position by letting Kendall go. Don't look at a stat like being 5th in runs scored and think that's enough. It cleary was not going to be enough given the pitching.
  19. JohnBriggs12
    Per Anthony Witrado's game story, Mike is starting the opener vs. Astros! To think all he had to do was drive in 8 runs over 2 games. Who knew?
  20. JohnBriggs12
    I had the Brewers out of it the day the Braves signed Derek Lowe. Lowe was the only realistic FA pitcher out there that I thought could adequately bolster the Brewer rotation. Once he was off the market, the only chance was to trade for a pitcher using Hart and to sign a FA outfielder like Abreu who was actually an upgrade over Hart, but a combo move like that isn't in Melvin's DNA.
  21. JohnBriggs12
    Makes no sense to me either. They are better off continuing to audition Villanueva as a starter. After all, they have no guy in their organization other than Gallard under 26 that has started 25 career games with an ERA under 4.50 in those starts.
  22. JohnBriggs12
    Fangraphs has a stat call RAA (Runs Above Average). Let's compare Farris' 2009 number to the the guys on TheCrew07's list: Farris +10.1 Gamel +7.2 Escobar +5.1 Salome -1.4 Cain -2.2 Lucroy +13.2 Green -2.3 Gindl +18.2 Schafer +0.4 Lawrie +8.5 Dennis +12.4 Prince +6.3 Dykstra -2.8 (Wis), -6.3 (Hel) Brownstein +5.4 Garfield -4.3 Richardson NA I don't know how Brownstein can be rated above Farris. He's older than Farris was when he was at Helena, and his numbers aren't any better. Dykstra's numbers are horrid. Prince's offensive numbers are similar to Farris' at Helena at the same age. Only difference is Prince plays SS, but Farris is a top flight defensive 2B too. I'm not sure why some are so down on Farris. I don't think anyone is ready to put him in the top 10, but he certainly has to be considered a prospect. He got off to a slow start with the bat this year in pitcher dominant Florida State League. But he's really been coming on lately (.381/.435/.452 in August) and the stolen base totals and percentage are outstanding.
  23. JohnBriggs12
    Escobar vs. LHP: .356/.401/.500 Escobar vs RHP: .272/.331/.369 It's a significant difference but platooning top prospects is not a good idea. By the way Bourgeois hit for higher average against righthanders though his OPS was higher vs LHP.
  24. JohnBriggs12
    Macha should be fired for insubordination. Bring Don Money in and end it Doug.
  25. JohnBriggs12
    The nail in the coffin for Castro was Parra's positive response to spending time working with Bosio. Those things don't go unnoticed.
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