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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Justin Verlander - 5.64 Cole Hamels - 5.28 Jon Lester - 4.71 Dan Haren - 4.50 Those are the 2010 April ERAs of 4 pitchers that a lot of people would have called aces last year. Premier pitchers struggle at times just like everyone else, especially when they start their season in such a weird way. Greinke hasn't really pitched poorly, he has had poor results so I'm not really worried at all. If he weren't striking anyone out or he was really wild and walking players I'd be worried but not when his peripherals are solid and his variance stats are wonky.
  2. Ennder
    These aren't exaggerations, they are truths fully supported by what the players have done including past performance and this years performances. Both of these players have been below replacement level over the past 4 seasons combined now and have been below it so far this year.
  3. Ennder
    K% is a big flaw in wOBA - sorry, but Adam Dunn did not have more offensive value than Joe Mauer last year when he struck out 3.5 times as often (not to mention Mauer had an avg over .060 higher).First off no it really isn't a big flaw at all, a strike out is barely less valuable than any other out, it is a marginal difference at best. But more importantly you harped on Ortiz's 28% and compared it to Fielder who had a 23% last year, there is no way 5% K rate changes the value significantly. The flaws in wOBA is mostly going to come from baserunning. To take it a step further looking at linear weights, a normal out on average is worse than a K with a runner on 1B and the same with nobody on which are the two most common situations to be in. Overall the weight of a K is -.31 and a normal out is -.30. So if one guy strikes out 100 times more than another guy he cost himself roughly 1 run of value on the season or 10% of one win in value. Strike outs are bad because you aren't putting a ball in play, but when you are looking at just results a strike out on average is barely worse than any other out you can make.
  4. Ennder
    So we value players based on projections from a website now rather than look at the numbers that they have actually put up? Awesome. Your constant defense of every bad player is just getting droll at this point. Kotsay has one of the worst ISO's of any player in baseball, he is clearly below replacement level defensively, a BABIP spike induced league average OBP with no other skill anywhere close to replacement level isn't worth making him a good player. His WAR is still negative by a small amount and deservedly so and he should at best be the 5th or 6th OF for any team in contention. It really does feel like you are trolling at this point given the thin arguments you keep making to defend the weakest players on the team.
  5. Ennder
    If by good you mean below replacement level I'd agree with you. He has been one of the worst defensive SS in baseball on the year without a doubt, though we are talking bottom 10 instead of bottom 5 like I expected I guess.
  6. Ennder
    When we were playing the Padres he was talking about how Brad Hawpe was a good RF before he moved to 1B. Hawpe was historically bad in the field in RF, one of the worst to ever play the position managing a -19.4 UZR/150 in his career at the position.
  7. Ennder
    No stat is perfect but wOBA covers the majority of what a hitter brings to the table, there are some hidden factors but you get 98% of the big picture or something from it. I find it odd you brought up K% like that was the flaw though.
  8. Ennder
    Looks like Roenicke feels bad for Jimenez and wants to make sure he gets back on track. That lineup looks as bad as some of those lineups Seattle trots out. McGehee should probably bat 2nd and then Wolf could bat 5th and we could put the four replacement level hitters behind Wolf.
  9. Ennder
    The best part about Betancourt is knowing that we can spend Fielders money on a SS next year and make up some of the WAR we lose when he leaves. Betancourt brings no value at all to the team other than filling up space so if we can get even a 1 WAR guy next year it will make up a chunk of what we lose with Fielder. If we can get a 1.5 WAR 1B (Gamel?) suddenly we have made up about half of what we lose with Fielder.
  10. Ennder
    Brandon Phillips is probably the most annoying player in baseball, he is a complete punk. Cueto and Gomes are pretty far up there with them, those three pretty much turn the Reds from a team I don't mind into one of the least pleasant teams in the league. The Cards and the Cubs don't bother me either~. I don't see Chicago as a rivalry, I see them as one of the crappiest cities in the country(large population, full of idiots and not on a coast where anyone actually cares about them) who happens to be in our general area and I just feel bad for them since they are stuck in such a crappy city.
  11. Ennder
    None of this is true for what it is worth, this seems to be a reaction to Weeks Ks a lot and not the reality of how he approaches his AB. The poor hitting on the road is almost certainly a function of the pitchers we have faced and/or random variation. This is one of those things that fixes itself like 99% of the time.
  12. Ennder
    He is the pitcher who is doing the best atm, he is not the unquestioned ace of the staff.
  13. Ennder
    There is a pretty large gap between the two in general but most players tend to be mediocre in both stats so OPS isn't horrible by itself in a lot of cases. You just have to realize that OPS overvalues guys like Betancourt and undervalues high OBP low SLG type guys (which are rare of course).
  14. Ennder
    Every Twins fan I've ever talked to said he was good defensively everywhere he plays, his bat is just terrible. You are the first person I've ever read about ripping on his defense at SS. I even did a search on Punto and about the only negative feedback I could find was that he was a terrible hitter.
  15. Ennder
    If you played the same exact lineup for 120 games and magically started the season over and played them again for 120 games you would get significantly different stats each time. Stats are great and all but there is a reason you use 3 years or more of them, over 162 games they are going to vary wildly.
  16. Ennder
    He also doesn't make the error that gives the Rockies the lead. Trying to justify things by a single game is pretty weak in general though. Counsell is as good of a hitter, he just doesn't have the power and he is a way better fielder. He is also too old to play more than 2 times a week though.
  17. Ennder
    The Brewers have been one of the best defensive teams in baseball the past 2 weeks, their low error totals pretty much proves it. Sorry but nothing bothers me more from a game caster than useless tripe like this.
  18. Ennder
    You forgot about Braun who swings at more out of the zone pitches than Weeks does. You forgot about Fielder who swings at more out of the zone pitches than Braun does. No he doesn't. The only players who swing at more out of zone pitches than Braun are useless hitters like Betancourt and Gomez, no good Brewer hitters swing at more junk than Braun.
  19. Ennder
    They do but the ranges of BABIP are much smaller than the difference we've seen on the season.
  20. Ennder
    Probably 4-5 or 5-4.
  21. Ennder
    This seems to be a misconception, this year isn't all in at all. We traded for pitchers with multiple years left that can easily be flipped next year for very good prospects or we could pursue extensions for them. Given his base running and defense we can replace Fielder next year and still have a playoff hopeful team.
  22. Ennder
    Or his bat might not have slowed as much as people guess and he would beat those projections. They are educated guesses with age regression added into them already. In fact they probably regress him too much since he plays part time and I bet the real regression is probably harder on a full time player.
  23. Ennder
    I didn't have any problem with Braun going on home on that play, took a perfect play and a perfect blockout at the plate to get him and he very well still might have been called safe. It was also on the road in a pitchers park so I think the run environment is low which makes marginal situations more of a green light. That was an example of good aggressiveness that just didn't work out.
  24. Ennder
    Embarrassing. Here I thought someone from the Scioscia tree was suppose to be tactical and shrewd. I've seen NONE of that in Roenicke. Scioscia is a buffoon and has been since day 1, so I don't know why you'd expect otherwise. His teams give away outs like it's going outta style. Actually they have been the most successful team in baseball from a baserunning standpoint over the past 8 years or so. The only major issue anyone has with Scioscia is playing Mathis so much. Aggressive baserunning is great when you do it the right way, you have to keep the concept away from guys like Gomez though because they are too stupid to make good baseball decisions no matter what aspect of the game you are talking about.
  25. Ennder
    I can maybe somewhat forgive him for playing Kotsay in CF at home since we have sort of a small OF, playing Kotsay in CF in a park with a huge OF in a situation where we aren't scoring very much so need the defense is just ridiculous.
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