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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    There are good chances that Fielder and Braun hit better than last year though. I don't expect a big dropoff in offense. The bullpen also is probably going to be better than last years which was a mess. I'm much more worried about the bench/depth and the defense.
  2. Ennder
    Nobody with a solid statistical background in baseball thought the Mariners would be good in 2001. They are a team that won way more than they should have in 2009 and they weren't able to repeat it. In 2009 they gave up 52 more runs than they scored and managed to somehow win 85 games, it was just a fluke season. They largely brought back the same team and have very little in the way of young talent, there was no reason to expect anything but a losing season from them in 2010. Of course the Brewers aren't as good as some people say either, they aren't a 90 win team or anything. They are a very flawed roster with below replacement level players at SS, little to no depth and most likely the worst fielding in MLB, combine that with the most brutal interleague schedule in baseball and we are a slightly over .500 team. Good thing nobody else in the NL central is much more than an 85 win team either, which ever one has the most luck in close games and is the healthiest will probably take it. So he gets most of it right, just the comparison to the Mariners is terrible because nobody should have had expectations that the Mariners would be any good last year.
  3. Ennder
    I'm not sure it is subjective as much as it is impossible to prove one way or another. Sometimes a team wins more games than it seems they should and it is because of little things like their bullpen, small ball , good baserunning etc, sometimes it is just dumb luck with run distribution. It is really hard to prove which it was even with all of the stats in front of you. I'm going to disagree with Melvin on how to handle it as well. We should be signing some fringe starter to take the starts and if we reach the point where we have 5 healthy starters we stick them in AAA for depth or we release them if need be. I'm already completely uncomfortable with our depth at SP and this just makes things worse. We cannot absorb an injury or two in any way right now and we have to assume we will need to.
  4. Ennder
    Fielder should bat 2nd but that is probably a discussion for another day~.
  5. Ennder
    If Gomez can somehow hit .270 it means an OBP of over .310 which would be a significant improvement. He still won't be a positive offensively but he is a glove first player so he doesn't have to be as long as he isn't downright terrible like he has been the past few years.
  6. Ennder
    Given the brutal interleague schedule and how close the teams are in the Central I can't be as unconcerned about the injury. If the Brewers miss the playoffs it will probably be a very minor margin and something like this could easily be part of why they miss it. Even 3 starts is enough to be a concern.
  7. Ennder
    He absolutely should be bunting if he puts the ball in play consistently. If he draws the infield in it increases his chance to get a hit when he doesn't bunt by quite a bit. His problem is more poor pitch recognition than anything but taking a better approach overall at the plate can only help. Even if he stinks it shows he is at least putting in the effort to try to get better which is always good to hear. CF isn't likely to be a strength on the team but it isn't likely to be a problem either since we have good defensive players and the average CF is pretty terrible offensively.
  8. Ennder
    I didn't realize he was drafted by the Brewers, though he never made the majors.
  9. Ennder
    I like Boggs as the 25th man and Cruz as the 24th with Betancourt released~. Or Boggs as the 24th with Kotsay released and then Cruz as the 25th, anything that gets either Kotsay or Betancourt off the team is a plus.
  10. Ennder
    He did so much good this year and then sabotaged it by signing Kotsay and accepting Betancourt which are as fundamentally flawed deals as the Gagne and Suppan deals were. I still like him and I'm afraid that the results of what he built this year will decide his future instead of whether the deals were actually good or not. If we under-produce he probably gets fired even though it will be the players fault and not his.
  11. Ennder
    All of those while being one of the worst defensive CF in the game. His WAR by season since 2006 are 0.3, -1.1, 0.5, -0.3, -0.7. I'll give you 2005 being roster worthy but overall over the past 5 years a mediocre AAA player would have helped his teams as much as he did. All of that while mostly paying with the platoon advantage as well. There is no way he deserves a major league contract or a roster spot at this point.
  12. Ennder
    Cruz is a roughly average fielding SS at the very least, he would have to be epically terrible offensively, like .500 OPS style terrible, to not be an upgrade over Betancourt.
  13. Ennder
    Kotsay hasn't been roster worthy for 6 years now posting below replacement level stats offensively and defensively every season since 2004. The only value he's held at all has been the ability to play CF which sets the bar incredibly low for a player. The biggest things that can derail our season is Kotsay getting a lot of AB or Betancourt starting full time all year. We could release both of them tomorrow and the team would likely be better even with in house replacements though I'd like to pick up any warm body capable of playing SS. So my answer is Cruz, I don't expect much out of him but at least he has a chance of being a major league quality player.
  14. Ennder
    It can really go either way, Braun or Fielder. Nobody else really has a chance barring injury, even if someone else in the field has a career year one of those two will be the best offensively. If Fielder doesn't try to hit a HR every AB like he did for much of last year he should be a .900+ OPS guy and Braun has been a .900+ OPS guy when healthy, when he got hurt last year it killed his summer statistically.
  15. Ennder
    I was never a big Bill Hall guy, he never had solid basic skills and his fit was always best as a utility guy mostly playing vs LHP. I see no reason to buy out any FA years for McGehee though. He is a 3B with bad knees which undermines his defensive skills and likely will just get worse, he isn't really athletic enough to move to the OF and his bat wouldn't really play at 1B. I just don't see a big reason to keep him after his age 31 year. Some sort of cost control deal for his arbitration years is fine I guess, as long as he gives a bit of a discount since all of the risk is on the teams side.
  16. Ennder
    I most certainly can tell you that. The best hitters might not be any different but the replacement level is way higher than before. You used to face 3-4 scrub hitters in almost every lineup so you could ease up when they came to the plate. You also could throw a much higher percentage of fastballs and players didn't work the count nearly as much. Trying to compare pitching now to pitching even 25+ years ago just isn't going to work, the games are just too different. Pitchers could certainly go a little deeper than they do now but if you take Blyleven and stick him in today's game he wouldn't have thrown nearly as many innings as he did.
  17. Ennder
    There is data that has shown keeping the same catcher a 2nd year improves a pitchers ERA so there is certainly something to it. However there is also tons of data that show the difference is pretty small. It is important for him to get his reps with the real pitchers but it isn't a huge deal, it is a small one.
  18. Ennder
    It is worse than just losing him for 2011. They very well might lose him for 2012 and 2013 as well.
  19. Ennder
    I don't have a disorder and I would probably find fans and reporters annoying too. I don't have even the tiniest bit of a problem with this.
  20. Ennder
    The reputation of Cardinals pitchers is grossly exaggerated. They have had a few guys step up for a single season mostly because they are a defense first team and a significant pitchers park but none of them have sustained anything and there is no reason to expect someone to way overproduce this season.
  21. Ennder
    You can't really play baseball with an injured hand, you use it on just about every play and most drills.
  22. Ennder
    Each sport is unique, copying football would be a disaster for baseball. My point though was that the NFL is nowhere near as healthy as people seem to think it is, they have their fair share of big problems too.
  23. Ennder
    That article doesn't really say much about profits, it just talks about the TV deal. Actual profits have likely been in decline for a couple years now in the NFL. But yeah the NFL TV deal is great and it has the backing of gambling to make sure it will stay popular even if the game itself starts to get worse.
  24. Ennder
    The sport that has seen team profits going down by a considerable amount and is probably going to miss part of their next season because of it you mean?
  25. Ennder
    He is completely correct, the issues with baseball are pretty much all seen in the revenue sharing. They don't share the revenue enough and the large market teams need to give more money to other teams. A salary cap won't work because it still creates a system where the haves get the advantage, true revenue sharing is the answer.
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