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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    That's bad news when you have a 5'10" immobile first basemen. Prince has improved over the years, but still. Speaking of defense at first base, I was doing some exploring recently and noticed that Pujols led the league in defensive WAR (all positions) in 2007 and 2008. Color me skeptical about defensive advanced metrics, or any defensive metrics for that matter. Doesn't surprise me at all, no positional player touches the ball more often than the 1B. The best of fielding 1B have always been underrated.
  2. Ennder
    You'll be hard pressed to find someone who has less faith in Betancourt than I do but I can understand the wait and see attitude. Defensive stats don't always mesh with what people see with their eyes. Also he has been on a lot of bad teams where maybe the effort level wasn't where it should have been by mid season. He is also moving to the easier league and from one of the harder divisions in baseball for a hitter into one of the easier ones. He's also moving to a better hitting park and will have much better players around him. He is young enough that you could see improvement this year. I don't have much faith in him or Gomez being above replacement level offensively though.
  3. Ennder
    An all glove no bat SS is a significant upgrade over Betancourt but it doesn't sound like it is going to happen. I just hope Counsell gets a lot of playtime since Betancourt is horrible against RHP.
  4. Ennder
    Lawrie was not an elite prospect because of his defense, he is a B+ type of guy. A #2 pitcher is pretty much exactly the type of player you'd expect to get for him.
  5. Ennder
    I think it was an issue last year personally. He was even extremely slow on the base paths last year and his swing seemed more all or nothing than in the past. The fact he learned the strike zone even better just masked it some since his OBP jumped covering up how the rest of his skills declined some.
  6. Ennder
    Dunno, it was one of the worst deals of the off season. It makes no sense at all.
  7. Ennder
    That is certainly true. The Cardinals average interleague opponent won 76.2 games last year, the Brewers won 93.6. That is about a 2 game head start for the Cardinals.
  8. Ennder
    They are up officially now, I think it might be subscriber only though? http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ Cardinals 1st place with 87 wins, Brewers 2nd with 85 wins, Reds 3rd with 81 if others cant' see it. These change quite a bit as the preseason goes. Pretty much the difference between us and the Cardinals is we have a below replacement level SS and PECOTA doesn't believe in Axford. Pretty much mirrors my thoughts on the season, we will miss the playoffs by a game or two specifically because we didn't replace Betancourt. Any warm body would be an upgrade.
  9. Ennder
    http://twitter.com/Ken_Ro...status/37925664308994048 5 years, $50M according to this but doesn't seem like a 100% sure source.
  10. Ennder
    It would be disappointing to let him just walk but it is the correct move unless we are obviously out of contention come the trade deadline in which case Fielder and Weeks get moved for major league ready talent most likely.
  11. Ennder
    Williamson's decline started before he ever got hurt but yeah injury has something to do with it as does loss in velocity. When you have such poor command of your pitches anything that interferes with your game is going to start really causing problems. That kind of control almost universally points towards problems with mechanics as well. I can only find a single pitcher who walks as much as Marmol does that was able to keep a sub 3.50 ERA over a big chunk of innings and that was John Rocker and there is a good case to be made his wouldn't have stayed that way if he pitched longer. It just isn't the type of skillset that seems to last.
  12. Ennder
    There have not been many RP in history that could stay successful with the huge K huge BB skillset. Scott Williamson is one of his higher comparables and that would be my guess as to how his career goes as well. http://www.fangraphs.com/...yerid=361&position=P Matt Mantei is another good comp http://www.fangraphs.com/...ayerid=64&position=P I couldn't find a guy who walked as many as Marmol does and stayed good long term. Closest to it are guys like Mitch Williams and Brad Lidge who were all over the place during their careers but in the long run were good.
  13. Ennder
    They stated they were releasing the depth chart to beta members today and then real members hopefully on Wed so maybe those are the beta run.
  14. Ennder
    Yeah I fully expect Marmol to crash and burn in the next 3 years.
  15. Ennder
    I guess I'll be more disappointed that he plays as much as he does than anything else. I think at the end of the season we miss the playoffs by a couple games and you can point directly at the decision to play one of the worst players in baseball full time instead of getting a cheap upgrade as the reason.
  16. Ennder
    Teams can easily win or lose 10% more games than they 'should have' just from bad luck with clutch hitting or bad spread of runs scored etc. Not to mention major injuries and major breakouts throw things out of whack. You won't find a site that has really strong predictions of what will actually happen. Baseballprospectus is decent for projections but I wouldn't bet my money on what they say. They said standings are hopefully coming on Wed but they tweak them as spring training goes along so the first draft isn't what you see by the start of the season.
  17. Ennder
    Break out - Fielder, Narveson. I think Fielder has another 50 HR type year. Narveson will gain more consistency and be another Randy Wolf. Disappointment - Betancourt. He will be the worst regular player in baseball and will be the reason we miss the playoffs by a game or two. Not sure I can call it a disappointment since he has basically been the worst player in baseball over the past 3 seasons.
  18. Ennder
    I think the jerks are the minority on all teams, they just end up getting a lot of media because of the way they behave. Pro sports can be pretty humbling for a player especially baseball where you tend to hit failure in at least one aspect of the game before you even reach the top levels and have to fight through it.
  19. Ennder
    Hamilton has 15.6 WAR over the past 4 seasons, Weeks has 12.7 in that time. Hamilton is certainly worth more but it isn't by a factor of 2 or anything. Obviously depends on which version of WAR you prefer, I prefer Fangraphs for hitting and fielding at least.
  20. Ennder
    They have a good young rotation forming too. It is probably a couple years away from making serious noise though. If they can approach .500 I think it would help to start rebuilding that fan base though. I really think they will go after Fielder next year, he just fits their team so well.
  21. Ennder
    99 PA's spread out over 14 years isn't a small sample, it is a completely useless sample not even worth bringing up. It holds as much meaning as what Kotsay eats for breakfast in the morning.
  22. Ennder
  23. Ennder
    If I looked at the list of players still out there I'm sure I could find 25 of them I'd take over Kotsay. I'm usually very forgiving about these low value type deals but this one is just downright terrible. Three years ago this might make sense but now it is ridiculous.
  24. Ennder
    It might not be the only way to judge things but there aren't going to be any easy ways to quantify these things so it is a starting spot. Carroll has spoke highly of the Brewers medical staff before and I'd assume he is more qualified to judge these things than most are.
  25. Ennder
    We have no idea how good a hitter Gamel is based on his major league stats, you would be much better going off the minor league ones at this point with the understanding they are pretty iffy too. 145 MLB ABs doesn't tell you anything at all about a hitter though, he could have a 1.000 OPS and be a terrible hitter, he could have a .500 OPS and be a great one, there is no way to know yet with such a small sample. But yeah we have no depth at all when it comes to hitting, we traded it all away for pitching the past few years. If Fielder and Weeks walk next year and we somehow don't replace them we become the Mariners offensively.
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