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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    It has been 6 years since Kotsay has really been worth having on a major league roster as even a pinch hitter, he has been a replacement level or weaker hitter every year after 2004. He really brings absolutely no value to a team and just being a vet isn't a reason to sign him. Removing someone from the roster is reason enough to say this is a high risk signing. This is nothing at all like the Edmonds deal and is hard to compare to the Kapler one, this is a case of a player with a really long history of having no value at all.
  2. Ennder
    That ballpark is a pretty horrible match for Bush. Surprised a team like the Mets or Padres didn't sign him or heck even the Giants instead of taking Suppan, pretty much any pitcher can succeed in those ballparks as long as they can keep their walks down.
  3. Ennder
    Weeks is one swing of the bat away from his career ending with another wrist injury, I think he wants to get a good contract while he has a chance because this really could be the only big contract of his career. I don't really blame him for wanting a pretty big price while his value is high and his perceived risk is lower than his actual risk.
  4. Ennder
    I think it is way too radical moving teams between NL and AL. Though I'm fine with just adding the DH to the NL since it will happen eventually anyway. Only way the leagues can be fair. Once they both have a DH you can move teams around any way you want to.
  5. Ennder
    Stats can't tell the whole story, it is just how things are. BABIP is luck based but it is impossible to account for how much of it is luck and how much is something else. Getting behind in the count lowers your BABIP as a hitter, hitting weak groundballs and popups lower it, being slow lowers it. You can somewhat normalize it to what they have done the past 3 years but even that is somewhat flawed. OPS gives you a decent picture of how good a guy was offensively, it isn't perfect by any means. ERA doesn't even reach the decent picture because so much of what happens is out of a pitchers control.
  6. Ennder
    Nope, but I don't judge a hitter by his AVG either, it isn't a major part of what makes an offensive player productive. ERA in no way is comparable to a stat like OPS though, if that is what you are getting at. ERA is probably about as meaningful as AVG so that is a pretty good comparison though. There really isn't a good go to stat for judging pitching, some sort of composite ERA type stat is probably the best you are going to get.
  7. Ennder
    ERA is at best a team stat at worst a useless stat, it most certainly is not a meaningful production stat. You have no idea how a pitcher pitched by looking at their ERA, it is like judging a QB by his team wins. A good example of this is comparing Annibal Sanchez to Ryan Dempster. They were the two players with the best and worst luck when it came to bullpens driving in their inherited runners. There is a 10 ER difference just from how the bullpen pitched, nothing else included at all like defense etc. If Ryan Dempster had the same luck as Sanchez with bullpens his ERA would drop 0.43 for the year. The bullpen alone can make up almost half a run in ERA. Defense can easily make up another 0.25 to 0.50. Park and league can easily make up another 0.5 or more. ERA is not a stat to be judging pitchers by.
  8. Ennder
    There are much better places to spend that kind of money than a marginal upgrade for depth reasons. Like getting a real SS or CF.
  9. Ennder
    I'm sold on Weeks from a production standpoint but he is no less injury prone now than he was before his full season last year. Those wrists are always going to be a big injury risk. He would have to play 3 or 4 full seasons in a row for them to worry me less than they did while he was hitting the DL every year.
  10. Ennder
    I think it is a good deal for the Cubs as well. I don't think they are playing for 2011 as much as 2012 or 2013 though.
  11. Ennder
    He is no less valuable for being setup than if he were the closer. The first two years of the deal are most likely worth it, the 3rd year is a disaster.
  12. Ennder
    http://www.fangraphs.com/...s-fastball-and-changeup/ This is a relatively in depth look at how Marcum succeeds with his mediocre velocity. Thought it might be interesting to people. One of the comments by a Toronto fan was that he sometimes struggles with consistency from his curve, would be nice if Gallardo was able to help him out with that.
  13. Ennder
    It wasn't poor management, it was unrealistic expectations. It should take roughly 10 years to turn around a team as bad as the Brewers were when Melvin too over. Overhauling the offense was the first step, the pitch overhaul has been slowed by injuries/drugs but we do have a lot of pitching talent in the system atm. There aren't enough draft picks to turn around all positions on the team in a 5 year periods, you have to choose which path to go and we chose offense which is generally safer and puts more fans in the seats.
  14. Ennder
    Howard is a better defensive 1B than Fielder is and that was a home team deal which would make more sense to me.
  15. Ennder
    Oh I think Fielder will certainly be open to playing for an NL team, I just don't see an NL team committing the type of years/money that it will take to sign him.
  16. Ennder
    Yeah I don't see Fielder going to an NL team.
  17. Ennder
    I don't like this one bit. I don't know if it puts the Cubs at the same level as the Cardinals or Reds but it certainly puts them in the range where a little luck could have them in the division race.
  18. Ennder
    This should make for an interesting year! I will say that the Angels almost always added value with their running and that most of the Brewers that are likely to steal are pretty high percentage at it in their careers. Running isn't a bad thing if used well.
  19. Ennder
    There is no way on earth that Morris deserves the HOF over Blyleven and yeah there is no way that Dawson deserved it over Raines. Find it odd that someone would support Blyleven and diss Dawson at the same time. But yeah Edgar Martinez not making the hall is just idiotic.
  20. Ennder
    I think betancourt is almost certain to be our starting SS for the first couple months of the season. I also think if we miss the playoffs by 2 games or less you can directly point at keeping him at SS as the reason we missed the playoffs. The value of a win goes up astronomically as you approach the playoff win total and replacing Betancourt with another crappy SS is worth something like $5M-$10M for this team IMO.
  21. Ennder
    That is exactly how the Brewers have to pay a guy. The Yankees can overpay based on WAR to fill a hole, a smaller team can't afford to pay over WAR to get their man. The Brewers obviously have to pick and choose which guys to throw the money at too but eventually you have to pay some guys what they are worth.
  22. Ennder
    Some of the playtime predictions by cairo are really out of whack, so until they fix that I wouldn't put too much stock into these but nice to see us with a solid number of wins regardless. The defensive projections look a bit iffy too, like Berkman only being a -4 in RF with a lot of playtime.
  23. Ennder
    I'll be pretty pissed if Raines never makes it in. Blyleven making it in was nice.
  24. Ennder
    He was actually hitting fine until he got injured and could barely make it to 1B the rest of the year. Betancourt is much worse than Estrada was~.
  25. Ennder
    http://www.tangotiger.net...rtid=7&prim_fld_cd=6 Fans Scouting report gives him lowest rankings of anyone in baseball. http://pinetarandpocketpr...esting-man-in-the-world/ This article by Joe Posnanski pretty much sums him up perfectly. http://joeposnanski.si.co...he-yin-and-yang-of-yuni/ Here is what Mariner fans who watched him thought of him. http://www.ussmariner.com...-of-yuniesky-betancourt/ Also it isn't just one defensive metric that doesn't like him, it is all of them. So the fans who watch him think he is the worst defensive SS in baseball, the stats from every system thinks he is the worst defensive SS in baseball. It is quite obvious that he is terrible offensively just from looking at his stats. I can't really see anything that justifies him being a viable starting SS as anything but a stopgap player unless he completely changes his game in the offseason somehow. You can't just wait to replace him because by the time the season starts all the SS will have jobs, if you are going to replace him it has to be now.
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