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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Cameron is a very good defensive CF, Gomez is an elite defensive CF. Gomez improved offensively in many areas last year even if it doesn't show up in slash stats. He could range somewhere from a little below average to well above average, no real way to know until he plays the season.
  2. Ennder
    They are generally the weighted mean of many different outcomes so they aren't claiming to be correct. For a player like Gomez the range of outcomes is just huge so the projection isn't going to be right all that often. For a player like say Doug Davis the range is a bit smaller and they tend to be more accurate. The best use for them is really that they aren't biased.
  3. Ennder
    I think McGehee/Gamel can probably match a .769 OPS on the year. If they don't match it I think they can come pretty darn close at least.
  4. Ennder
    I don't see a good reason to expect LF or 1B to regress to any significant amount. 2B will if Weeks doesn't stay healthy and obviously CF is the big drop. I think the pitching will be more improved than the offense regresses though. Part of that just because the pitching would have improved significantly if we had just thrown the same guys out, add in the new players to the mix and I think it is pretty major.
  5. Ennder
    It is unlikely that Sheets or Bedard are actually an upgrade over Davis when you talk full season value. When you consider who will make up the extra innings missed by them it is even less likely.
  6. Ennder
    Davis has a career ERA of 4.31, career FIP of 4.41, career xFIP of 4.43 and a career WHIP of 1.49. He is just sort of an odd guy who can get away with the walks even without having great K totals. I'd say his 4.25ish ERA the past 3 years are probably about what you should expect this year. That is a slightly above average starter. Wolf is also probably a slightly above average starter. So now we have one good starter and 2 above average ones instead of 1 good starter and 4 below average ones, which can only help.
  7. Ennder
    I sure hope that is how it works out. I'd rather have Parra pitch his way out of his rotation than have to try to earn the job back out of the bullpen.
  8. Ennder
    Unless last year turns out to be for real I'd say Wolf and Davis are both better than Piniero. So hard to tell when someone pitches so out of normal expectations in their early 30s.
  9. Ennder
    If Parra can't throw strikes in spring training I think he is in the bullpen. If Parra looks good it will depend on if Suppan or Bush are locating better with Suppan having the inside track most likely since Bush can be released for some savings but Suppan can't. Given how terrible Bush and Parra were last year I just don't see them dumping Suppan. If the plan is to keep them all then I think they'll throw out that 'Bush was a closer in college' junk and still use him in the bullpen. I just don't see them sitting Suppan without him clearly looking the worst in spring training.
  10. Ennder
    Sure it will, just not a good one. Competitive sure though. We now have 5 starting pitchers capable of pitching to an ERA under 4.50. I doubt all 5 will but they at least are capable of it for this year. 4 of the 5 have been under 4.25 recently.
  11. Ennder
    I said it in another thread but I'll go with Gallardo Wolf Davis Open competition between Bush, Parra and Suppan in spring training.
  12. Ennder
    I'm not a fan of the deal personally. He has had too many injury concerns to make this deal at this point.
  13. Ennder
    Escobar was not an option as starting SS in 2009 so I hope that isn't the answer. If I'm going to have a glut of talent at any position I want it to be at SP, if I have to have a glut at a position other than SP I want it to be OF. That is by far the easiest position to work with extra talent. Having other options at CF is not some sort of problem unless Hart remembers how to hit and the Brewers decide they want to keep him. A lot of things have to go just right for Gomez to be some sort of negative assuming he produces at a decent level.
  14. Ennder
    You would be looking at 37 doubles and 13 extra outs which I can't imagine is terribly valuable.
  15. Ennder
    You don't have to earn a raise to get one in the arbitration process, it is assumed that every year of arbitration pays you more than the previous one unless there is an extreme reason not to. As for Gomez, his LD%, GB%, swings at pitches out of the zone, ISO, K% and B% all improved last year. This is a player showing growth even if it didn't come out in his slash stats. He pretty easily could be a 2 WAR player this season and with a little bit of a breakout he could reasonably reach 3 WAR. I don't think there is a reason to throw him under the bus just yet.
  16. Ennder
    Carlos Gomez's defense probably makes him more valuable than Gerut in CF and while it doesn't show up in his slash stats he most likely improved as a hitter last year. Having a left handed OF who can play CF is very nice given our all RH OF though.
  17. Ennder
  18. Ennder
    For 3 years of data with players on the same team I'd say ERA is as useful as FIP probably, but I'm not the one making this decision Macha is. Do you think Macha is going to go by FIP or xFIP? I'm not arguing who should or shouldn't start, I'm arguing who will start.
  19. Ennder
    See I really disagree with this. I think you are just undervaluing Suppan here. The reality is that out of those 3 pitchers Suppan had the better 2009. Out of those 3 pitchers Suppan has been better overall over the last 3 years. Bush has a 5.06 ERA over the past 3 years Parra has a 5.17 ERA over the past 3 years Suppan has a 4.93 ERA over the past 3 years Bush finished the season pitching unevenly after an injury(8.10 ERA in 7 starts) and Parra finished it with the continued inability to throw strikes(1.87 WHIP in 2nd half). Now from a pure talent level I agree with you that Suppan is the lowest upside, but if Parra or Bush come into spring training pitching poorly I think it is a fight for the 5th spot. Suppan earns the most money which shouldn't matter but we all know it does. Suppan is probably the worst fit as a bullpen arm as well. I think it is a stretch to say that Suppan is the one who sits. I think it is even a bigger stretch to say that if that happens and Suppan starts it will get Macha fired. Suppan is a pretty vanilla #5 starter at this point in his career but Bush and Parra haven't been consistenly good in the past few years either.
  20. Ennder
    I strongly disagree. If Bush or Parra comes into spring training pitching poorly I don't see how Macha goes with them over Suppan. Bush has to prove he is healthy and Parra has to prove he can throw strikes to keep their jobs in that situation, that or Suppan has to just stink in spring training. Never underestimate a baseball manager's ability to overreact to a small sample, especially an older one like Macha. edit for typo
  21. Ennder
    Defense is the new OBP and Kouzmanoff is good defensively. Not like he is earning so much that it is hard for him to be worth the money.
  22. Ennder
    To be realistic here option A does not mean Suppan is out of the rotation. It means Suppan, Bush and Parra compete for their jobs in spring training and the one who does the worst in a small sample loses their job with Suppan probably being the least likely to lose it. My guess is signing another SP pushes Bush or Parra into the bullpen, most likely Parra unless he is lights out in spring training.
  23. Ennder
    I'd say SLG is still being overvalued. It isn't as bad as before moneyball but OBP is still undervalued.
  24. Ennder
    Maybe they still like Carlos Gomez and would want him back~.
  25. Ennder
    In 2007 he pushed Capuano late in the year while he was obviously wearing out in order to try to get him 20 wins. This is a year after he had arm surgery. Going into 2004 Ben Sheets was having back problems and Yost proceeded to overuse him in a meaningless season. To nobody's surprise Sheets ended up having back surgery after the season. He then sent Sheets out there earlier than he should have the next season. Then again in 2008 he pushed Sheets hard in the first half even though he hadn't pitched a full season in years and Sheets broke down late in the year again. A pretty strong argument can be made for Parra being overused in 2008 as well. Yost never seemed to grasp that a pitcher coming off of a year missed with injuries needs to be handled carefully. It is one thing to push a young healthy horse and another to push someone who ended the previous season injured.
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