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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Gomez's 70th percentile PECOTA is .270/.329/.406 and 3.1 WARP. His 50th is .259/.315/.391 and 2.4 WARP. I think his improvements in strike zone recognition last year is going to push him up closer to that 70th percentile ranking though maybe a little more of the OBP comes from BB than from AVG. I think Escobar will put up a pretty similar line to be honest. Both of them have a lot of variance in their game because it is low power, low BB so heavily BABIP driven.
  2. Ennder
    I think CarGo will beat him in every category except AVG most likely. It was hidden in his BABIP dip last year but he improved in every area as a hitter last year and moving to the NL will only help.
  3. Ennder
    I just don't think his BABIP or large spike in ISO is likely to be repeatable. When his ISO drops back to his minor league levels and his BABIP drops 20 points he is suddenly a .750ish OPS player which i think is more likely his true talent. Has nothing to do with me liking him or not. When a 26 year old career minor league player comes up and puts up numbers way better than he ever did in the minors I don't think there is something wrong with assuming he won't keep it up. When you are looking at your expectations for him for 2010 please be fair and keep in mind he has a career OPS of .741 in the minors and his highest OPS any single year was .776 in AA. It is very unlikely that he approaches last years numbers again, not impossible but certainly unlikely. McGehee had a great hot streak in the middle of the season where he put up a 1.139 OPS over a 26 game stretch. He had a .609 OPS before the hot streak and a .796 OPS after the hot streak. If he doesn't have that huge hot streak again this year or if he gets more AB to hide it better he just isn't going to repeat last year.
  4. Ennder
    You are overvaluing the return Fielder is likely to get and undervaluing the price of marginal wins as you approach playoff contention. If the Brewers plan on being in playoff contention on a regular basis they do need to keep a couple 3+ win players or it will be almost impossible to do it. I think the Cardinals have shown that having a few star players and a bunch of scrubs is a plausible way to make the playoffs. What they can't afford is dead money like Suppan and Hall this season, that is what kills a small market team, not paying to keep a star player.
  5. Ennder
    I think Parra has to throw strikes in spring training or he is out of the rotation and probably deservedly so. Bush has to prove he is over the injury physically and mentally as he was just horrible after getting hit by that pitch last year and never really recovered. Narveson is on the outside looking in, he probably has to really wow them to win the job. I don't think what Suppan does in spring training will play all that much into the decision. Suppan is probably in the rotation if they aren't happy with what the other guys are doing. As much as people complain about Suppan he was the 2nd best starter on the team last year(very sad) so probably isn't the first choice to be taken out of the rotation. So in that way he probably does have the inside track, but I think the other guys can win the job from him and he can't save the job by anything he does. Either they step up and take the spot or they don't and Macha settles for Suppan.
  6. Ennder
    Macha said Gallardo would not be opening day starter in Feb of 2009. He also said that there were open dates where they could realign things. Last year we went into the season with the rotation set and no competition so it is hardly comperable. The fact that Parra and Bush are starting 1 day earlier than Suppan doesn't in any way suggest that Suppan has a leg up on them, each of Suppan, Bush, Parra and Narveson can easily be set up to become the 4th or 5th starter given the way the spring rotation is set up right now.
  7. Ennder
    I think you are reading things into this that aren't there.
  8. Ennder
    If Baltimore goes after Fielder it will be in 2012 when he is a FA and they can sign him long term. That would make a ton of sense as the rest of their team will be starting to hit their prime that season and he would be a great person to stick in the middle of the order.
  9. Ennder
    As a backup IF I'd probably rather have Counsell. If Weeks goes down I'd much rather have Lopez though.
  10. Ennder
    I have nothing against McGehee, I just don't believe he is good enough to start at 3B in the majors, I pretty much think last year was a fluke. Hopefully he proves me wrong.
  11. Ennder
    I doubt it would have made much of a difference. If we don't have 4 of 5 starters injured and the 5th wearing out from his first full season in the majors we make a run at the playoffs. Instead we end up with 80 wins. Doubt Macha is to blame for much of it. Sure maybe Gamel full time and less of Kendall might give us another win but it wouldn't have been enough to make us a playoff team.
  12. Ennder
    Hart has underachieved way longer than Hardy has, this seemed like a really odd comment to me.
  13. Ennder
    All he really needs is to not get hurt and he becomes one of the top 2 or 3 players at 2B in the NL.
  14. Ennder
    I wouldn't be so quick to agree with you here. If Parra isn't throwing strikes Suppan very well could be one of the 5 best. I think given the results of the past 2 seasons the biggest question with him is durability. Both years he has really faded late and if he can't go 200 IP again without a late season fade he probably should start in long relief and join the rotation when someone gets hurt.
  15. Ennder
    I don't know about that, Fielder is at 1B and Branyan has proven he can't stay healthy playing other positions. He should have been signed by some team that needs a full time DH probably. He makes very little sense for the Indians given their current situation. They would have been better off sticking LaPorta at 1B full time since right now either LaPorta or Brantley doesn't have a position.
  16. Ennder
    Batters go too deep into counts and get on base too much to make a 4 man rotation viable. You also can't get by on 2/3rds effort fastballs for half the game like you could in the good old days. The 4 man rotation just isn't plausible these days.
  17. Ennder
    I'm not sure that is going to tell you much. Last years teams already lost players due to injury and it will already be reflected in their WAR so you aren't really catching the injury risk. This years projections tend to include age/injury based regression already so again that should already be built in. There is a reason that systems like PECOTA peg the Cubs at under .500 even though they have above .500 talent and that is pretty much the risk factor being added in.
  18. Ennder
    I can't imagine us giving up on Salome at this point, I'd say that is an extreme long shot.
  19. Ennder
    Not really sure I agree with their staff being much of a step above the rest. Wells is most likely a 4-4.25 ERA type pitcher. Zambrano is going the wrong way and now apparently is giving up his cutter which has been an effective pitch for him. Lilly is probably starting the year on the DL so who knows what to expect from him. The backend of the rotation options aren't anything special. Dempster has been pretty solid but as an extreme slider pitcher(over 30% of his pitches are sliders) I'm not so sure his arm is going to hold up after how many pitches he has thrown the past 2 years. I think that rotation has a lot of chinks in the armor just like the offense. In a perfect world it could be the best in the division but I could see it collapsing too. The Cubs have a lot of risk on their team, maybe more than any other team in baseball to be honest.
  20. Ennder
    Zaun has been injured and put on the DL 4 of the past 5 seasons, I'd say his annual DL trip is the perfect time to bring up whichever young C is doing the best and see if they stick or not.
  21. Ennder
    Do we really know what we are going to get? I sure don't. Is Gallardo gonna break out and become an ace or keep pitching like a solid #2. Was Wolf's improved control and velocity a fluke last year or is it sustainable? Can Doug Davis continue to defy the odds with that terrible walk rate, he is actually the most stable of the bunch over the past 3 years. This team's pitching could be anywhere from above average to terrible this season. I just don't know what to expect out of it. I mean I can easily see a scenario where every pitcher is under a 4.50 ERA and more than one are under a 4.00. I can also see a scenario where only Gallardo is under a 4.50 and more than one are over a 5.00.
  22. Ennder
    He doesn't excite me very much. His velocity has dropped the past 2 seasons, he's never had great control. He had a 1.86 ERA as a RP last year and that is probably his future role but that came with a .228 BABIP and only a 1.57 K/BB so I don't think that was some sort of huge breakout.
  23. Ennder
    I find it hard to believe that Detroit would have even considered this. It isn't like Verlander came out of nowhere, he was a can't miss prospect and was the 2nd pick in the draft. I highly doubt they would trade that for 2 years of a defensive deficient LF who is a really good but not elite hitter.
  24. Ennder
    I think when the Brewers take a realistic look at Suppan's 2009 he is not going to be cut, for all the Suppan is terrible talk he had a 4.43 ERA in July and roughly his normal peripherals and than was very erratic in the second half with 3 complete disaster starts in there. His ERA was in the 4.70 range as late as 3 starts before the end of the season though his peripherals had started to tank already and his gsc were getting consistently worse. I think at this point it should be pretty clear he can't pitch a full season. This is the second year in a row where he had some injury concerns in the 2nd half and complete tanked the final month or so. Everything about Suppan screams long man/spot starter at this point and I think that is the role he ends up with. He has never been a good pitcher but I think he needs to stay fresh to be effective in any way and he just can't do that as a full time starter anymore. I don't think he is so bad though that he needs to just be dumped given the relative lack of depth of our rotation. The rest of the moves we make will be dumping whichever fringe guys don't do well in spring training, too hard to predict that. None of these names like Irrabaren, Inglett or Oltjen are likely to be more than career backups so they aren't commodities that have to be worried about.
  25. Ennder
    I don't think Lofgren is a viable major league starter so I wouldn't give up much. It took him until age 23 to have success in AA and then he was terrible again in AAA. His K rate isn't impressive at all and he hasn't shown the great control someone like that needs to succeed and he isn't a groundball pitcher. I think best case scenario he becomes a LOOGY and probably not a terribly impressive one.
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