Jump to content
Want to get your head around free agents the WORLD CHAMPION Brewers can spend on this winter? Click here and check out our top 75 free agents ranking! ×
Brewer Fanatic

Ennder

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    11,251

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Marioano Rivera lost 6 games in 2001, 5 in 2006 and 5 in 2008. Hoffman lost 6 in 1993, 5 in 1996, 7 in 2000, 5 in 2002, 6 in 2005, 5 in 2007, 6 in 2008. Those guys crack under pressure. Not that I disagree with you, CV tends to walk too many in high leverage situations, it is just that looking at losses is such a bad methodology for discussing the issue. CV should be used in MR, not as a setup or closer.
  2. Ennder
    I highly doubt it would push CV down given his success as a RP so far in his career. I wouldn't mind Carrasco, I just think they would find a different way to make room for him.
  3. Ennder
    I would absolutely love a signing of Johnson.
  4. Ennder
    Villanueva has a career 3.96 ERA as a RP with 2.87 K/BB and a .685 OPS against. Just don't try to turn him into a starter again and he is a fine RP for the team. I still don't get all the hate for Bush, he got hurt and pitched poorly because of it. If he is healthy he is our 3rd best SP and worth whatever contract he is likely to get. He is a better option than most of the FA left out there who would be willing to sign as cheap as he'll be. Gerut is well a 4th OF and he can play CF and he is left handed, so he fits the team need pretty well.
  5. Ennder
    Tommy John's career ERA was 3.34, his career FIP was 3.38. This same trend holds true for almost every pitcher who pitches a long time. FIP is just a stat that takes some of the noise out of a smaller sample of IP. ERA is a horrible stat to use over a 200 IP or 400 IP sample, it just is too erratic. Now there are some few rare exceptions like Tom Glavine but FIP and ERA almost always are close after 1000+ IP. Scott Olsen has a career ERA of 4.77, career FIP of 4.95 and career xFIP of 4.65. At this point it is pretty clear that he is not a very good pitcher, regardless of how good he was one random game you happened to watch. Now if he could ever repeat his 2006 season we'd have something, that year he had a 4.04 ERA but it also came with a 4.33 FIP and 4.07 xFIP. That was his only good year of his career. 2008's ERA was mostly just good luck with variance.
  6. Ennder
    And Dave Bush's include his horrible 2009 which were seriously impacted by his arm injury. Bush was pretty much horrible after getting hit in the arm by that pitch and he was probably having his best season ever before it happened. Like I said way back earlier in the thread, I wouldn't mind Correia, I just don't want to pay more than Dave Bush type money for him.
  7. Ennder
    I wouldn't mind taking a stab at Garko though if he is cheap. He doesn't kill lefties quite like Gomes but he isn't useless vs righties either.
  8. Ennder
    That is great news. Of course, the downside is that signing Counsell is the best news we've gotten this offseason. I'd say the best news is Zaun signing and Kendall being let go. Second best is probably Wolf being signed with Looper let go, even if the contract was for too much money. The net gain is still big enough. Counsell would be #3.
  9. Ennder
    I mean Holliday is as likely to land in STL as SF next year and one year of data is never going to be reliable ever. A team can have the same exact offense 2 seasons in a row and get extremely varied results from them. We are trying to look at the true talent of these players so what their opposition is going to be like in 2010 has absolutely nothing to do with the question, the type of competition they faced 3 years ago to achieve the stats they did means a whole heck of a lot more. Taking this nitpick of yours completely out of the equation and just looking at xFIP shows that Correia is a 4.50 ERA type over his career with maybe a slight chance at improvement if he can maintain his GB% from last year. Bush and Correia actually have identical 5.04 tRA in their career and their xFIP are almost identical as well with Bush having a slight advantage. They are pretty comperable pitchers.
  10. Ennder
    And Bush has basically the same numbers except for one extremely bad injury year as well. No, because you only looked at 1 seasons data, a season that the NL Central didn't hit as well as normal, a season in which Bush as an example still had a higher OPS of opponents faced than Correia did. I still think historically over a 5 year sample that pitching in the NL West is easier than any other division in baseball.
  11. Ennder
    We simply disagree on which numbers are important and apparently how much the parks help him, ERA is not a measuring stick for me. I think he is a 4.50 ERA true talent type pitcher just like Bush is. It is no strawman argument, I'm just saying if you expect a repeat of his previous good 3 years I think you will be disappointed.
  12. Ennder
    If this is how we go after him then no thanks. Bush is better than his salary is likely to be and we need Bush AND another pitcher still imo.
  13. Ennder
    We should have never tried him as a starter after the success he had shown as a RP. Just one of the many problems that came from our lack of depth at SP last year. A lack of depth we still have unfortunately. We need to at least sign some AAA arms if not another major league arm with Parra starting in AAA.
  14. Ennder
    We are talking about how good the offenses are which is measured by OPS against and not just runs scored which are way more luck based. I'd also want to look at his past 4 years and not just 2009 since I'm talking about way more than 1 season worth of data. I'm not willing to do the research to see what the right answer is, my point was simply his peripherals do not match his production at all, I do not think you should expect him to keep an ERA under 4. If we sign him thinking we are getting another Dave BUsh then I'd be ok with it, if we are expecting him to repeat a sub 4 ERA I don't like it though. I think his career xFIP of 4.61 is more accurate than the ERA of 4.36.
  15. Ennder
    WAR shows Counsell at $21.8M worth of production over his 3 years with the Brewers. He has outproduced his salary every single season he has been with us. Even if you don't like the defensive metrics and want to scale that back a little he hasn't been overpaid by the Brewers so far, he has just been underrated. If he actually does hit like he did last year he is worth close to $10M and is a huge bargain.
  16. Ennder
    If you include Zaun replacing Kendall I could see it being 4 wins. We lost about 2-3 wins most likely by moving from Cameron to Gomez. I'd call the Brewers winners overall because we filled some major holes, but I think we didn't get great value for our money so it is only a marginal win.
  17. Ennder
    I'd say a large part of his success has been a low HR/FB% which is probably a result of pitching in two huge pitcher parks in a weak hitting division. I don't think Correia would find a lot of success on the Brewers.
  18. Ennder
    Well to be fair Clement would have been a disaster and before Bush got hit in the arm last year and Arroyo had his great second half his career ERA was pretty much exactly the same as Arroyo's. The difference between those two are really the last 70 IP or so they pitched.
  19. Ennder
    Harden has exceeded 150 innings 0 times in the past 5 years. Wolf has exceeded 190 innings the past 2 seasons. Wolf was arguably better than Harden last year as well. Harden isn't much cheaper either, if he stays healthy he costs more than Wolf. He is only cheaper if he gets hurt and misses a lot of time.
  20. Ennder
    So this could easily cost them $11M if he plays most of the season and gets hurt late. If he plays a moderate number of innings it is probably more like $9M. If he gets early then they only get stuck $7.5M.
  21. Ennder
    I don't think the 132 IP projection for Harden is realistic at all though or the 163 for Wolf. They are both being regressed towards a mean in opposite directions. I would think a projection of something like 120 IP for Harden and 175 IP for Wolf would be way more realistic. I'm also not sure I buy the 4.42 ERA for Wolf given the fact his xFIP and FIP have been better than that over the past 3 seasons. Looks like it is pulling way too much weight from the ERA in 2007, an ERA that peripherals didn't agree with. Whatever you use I don't think there is a huge gap here in talent vs value and I think the fact the Brewer rotation needs a sure thing easily makes up that gap. We have Gallardo and then pray atm since all of the other starters have some sort of question mark to them, Harden is not the best fit.
  22. Ennder
    The Twins making multiple playoffs has more to do with how terrible that division is in general than how great they are at building a team. You certainly aren't talking about Wolf here, he is aging but if anything his skills have been improving as has his health.
  23. Ennder
    Wolf's career xFIP is 4.24 and it has been in that same range over the past 3 seasons now. That matches it just fine.
  24. Ennder
    WAR compares itself to a replacement level player. So if we just had a replacement level player all year he would have a 0 WAR. So if Harden puts in a 2 WAR in 100 IP and Wolf a 2 WAR in 200 IP they are even players even with the replacement level guy filling in 100 IP. I just disagree with how much WAR Harden will produce. I think the Rangers will be lucky to get his 1.8 WAR from last year and 1.8 is the lower level of expectation for Wolf.
  25. Ennder
    140 IP is the upside for Harden, the more likely scenario is something like 100-120 IP. He isn't the same pitcher as earlier in his career so a 3.39 ERA isn't a very realistic expectation either. In Texas I bet his ERA is near 4 if not higher given his inability to throw either of his groundout pitches anymore.
×
×
  • Create New...