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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    We could keep Fielder if we wanted to but his defense is going to stop us. If you want to use a real example I'd use Braun instead. I 100% believe we can keep Braun long term if we decide it is worth it. Fielder just makes no sense because he is an AL player, not an NL player. I don't think the Phillies or Mets etc would keep Fielder either.
  2. Ennder
    Duschscher is even riskier than the others I mentioned. I'd just assume take Looper at $6M as Pavano at $8M.
  3. Ennder
    Harden, Lackey, Webb, Bedard or Wolf make some small sense but all are expensive/risky. The rest of that list we might as well just keep Bush and Looper and trade for AAA depth.
  4. Ennder
    I really don't consider losing one of your star players in the last year of his contract when the team is underperforming to be a big deal. If we trade Fielder in his last year of eligibility it isn't going to bother me even a tiny bit. Just like when we release a player on the Packers when he becomes a FA because we don't have the cap room. That is just part of sports and it isn't much different in baseball than any other sport. The Brewers can pick 1 or 2 players to keep long term just like the Packers can, Fielder doesn't fit because of his defense, oh well.
  5. Ennder
    It is highly unlikely that trading the $14M and 4-5 wins we get out of Bush/Cameron are going to be replaceable with the same amount of money in other starters. If they are it is going to be on high risk pitchers who we are just hoping work out which is one path we could go of course. I'm fine with letting Looper walk but letting Bush go just seems like banging our head into a wall, we aren't going to find a better deal on the FA market.
  6. Ennder
    Nice list overall, I'd have some minor disagreements but nothing really stands out.
  7. Ennder
    The problem is you are being 100% result oriented TheCrew07. Bush stinks because he pitched poorly after being hit, Suppan stinks because he sucked after he got hurt. You are way underrating almost every pitcher in our rotation with your comments. We did not have a single replacement level pitcher in our rotation this season. Joel Pineiro is not an elite pitcher regardless of what he did this season. Ricky Nolasco does not stink regardless of the bad ERA with the bad luck in LOB%. Joe Saunders was not a great pitcher last year who just lost it this year, his peripherals are almost identical. Same with a Derek Lowe. The result oriented stats are so high in variance that they just are not reliable at all and that is what you are trying to judge these guys by.
  8. Ennder
    I really hate the WAR stat for pitchers but since that is the one people seem to be using lets just take a more realistic look at Bush instead of being so results oriented after a bad finish after an injury. It is so hard to realistically judge a pitcher based on a small sample of terribleness following an injury. Over the past 3 seasons Bush has averaged over 1.1 WAR and $4.8M per season. If you include 2006 he is at 1.8 WAR and $6.4M a season. A $4M price tag really isn't out of line at all for him. The problem most certainly was depth though. When the entire rotation was healthy they did ok but not amazing this season, it was the fact we had no #6+ that sunk the team. It sunk it when we couldn't keep Parra down, it sunk it when Bush got hurt and tried to pitch through it, it sunk it when Suppan got hurt and tried to come back too early.
  9. Ennder
    I want the Braves for sure. As long as the Giants don't make it I'm happy though. I hate when a bad team gets lucky with a good season and makes it in. Would be like if the Astros had got hot and made it in.
  10. Ennder
    There star players all got hurt? I mean Cleveland fell out of contention because of the injuries/ineffectiveness of their star players like Hafner and Martinez more than anything. In 2008 they were 81-81 with pythagorean of 85-77 even after trading Sabathia. In 2007 they were 96-66. I'm more than a bit confused by this comment.
  11. Ennder
    They are pushing for .500 and think Counsell gives them a better shot to win than Gamel. Seems pretty logical to me even though I personally could care less if they finished .500 or better so I'd rather just play Gamel.
  12. Ennder
    Lets take a really simple cumulative offensive stat like runs created, it isn't the best stat in the world but it does do a semi ok job of judging what a hitter did. Pujols had 1359 for the decade, Bonds had 1171. Bonds had an amazing 4 years during the biggest hitter seasons in major league history due to steroids, I just can't give him an award like this for those 4 years alone.
  13. Ennder
    Always keep in mind we had 2 major injuries and one drug rehab guy that should have all been in AAA this season. We drafted pitching it just completely did not work out for this small window of time. Melvin certainly should have traded for some depth before this season but if you go back to say 2006 our depth looked great, it is really the 2007/2008 time frame that has stunk.
  14. Ennder
    Peavy is a disaster waiting to happen, I mean I can't think of a worse player he could have traded for this season. That is like trading for Sheets after he started breaking down.
  15. Ennder
    I couldn't disagree more, Bonds didn't play for a third of the time frame and has been caught cheating. If you look at their offensive numbers as compared to the other top players during the same time frame Pujols has been more impressive as well. Pujols is the best 1B in the game defensively while Bonds was below average for part of the time frame. If you look at OPS ignoring IBB then Pujols blows Bonds away for the decade. I know that sounds odd but the fact is Bonds had such bad talent around him that the league made him look better than he was rather than face him. Also if you want to get really nitpicking Bonds got the royal treatment, his strike zone was so freakin small that Jody Gerut probably could have hit .300 with it. I have never seen a player catered to so much as Bonds with the closest being Glavine who got the same sad strike zone only in reverse.
  16. Ennder
    Looper is not a below replacement level pitcher. I mean if you are judging him by ERA he is above replacement level, if you are using peripherals he is above replacement level. The only stat I can find that puts him below replacement level is WAR and for pitchers that stat is just horrible. I don't really care if he is back next year or not, I'd hope we can find an upgrade. I'd much rather get rid of Suppan than Looper though.
  17. Ennder
    Bush's 4.43-4.91 xFIP the past 3 years is probably pretty accurate. He really is a #3/#4 type guy, your original argument just seemed a bit out there becasue WAR is a result based stat just like ERA. tRA is as well(it ignores the fact that HR/FB is a largely random function and ignores BABIP as well so it ultimately isn't useful when trying to decide how good a pitcher is), none of these stats can tell you how good a pitcher is, they tell you how well he happened to pitch over a small sample and those things are very different. Bush is not a close to replacement pitcher, he isn't a good pitcher either. He is not the type of guy we should just let go for no reason though which seemed to be your intent. As for WAR not being good enough for me, even if you look at WAR it suggests that over the past 3 years Bush has been well above replacement level.
  18. Ennder
    Pitcher WAR is beyond useless but if you are going to go this path he had 2 WAR the year before and 3.8 WAR the year before that. A 3.8 WAR pitcher is Wandy Rodriguez with his sub 3 ERA this season, it is Cole Hamels, it is Jair Jurrjens. Gallardo is only 2.9 WAR this season.
  19. Ennder
    Parra had a .707 OPS against and 4.25 ERA last August so I think what you mean is last September he was bad in his 17 IP. He was shaky but ok in April/May, very strong June-August and then bad in Sept last year and most of that bad was just from HR. In the 2nd half last year he had 9.4 k/9 and 2.76 K/BB which are both very good, he walked 25 in 66 IP which is not bad at all. The most likely scenario is last September he got a tired arm from pitching too many innings and it carried into this season which isn't abnormal at all. I mean it was pretty foolish the way we used him last year given his injury history. How that reflects on next season is a good question though, my guess is he has some sort of arm problems mid season and everyone blames him for it instead of the management that has continually abused our pitching over the past 6 years or so.
  20. Ennder
    Parra will not succeed unless he gets his walks down, of course everything else in his history points to the fact that he should indeed get them down in the future. Even with the horrible walks his xFIP this year was 4.75 since he has the perfect skillset, high K, high GB% pitcher. As for Weeks the argument has always been a different one, how important AVG is vs walks. If Weeks were average defensively he'd have been one of the better 2B in baseball so far in his career, but some people just look at the low AVG and think he stinks.
  21. Ennder
    Makes a little sense with Looper but the other 3 aren't going anywhere and Bush and Parra shouldn't go anywhere.
  22. Ennder
    We are sitting around .500 with most of the rotation performing below expectations on the season. I want to see the rotation upgraded as well, more importantly I want to see more depth added in AAA. However I don't believe this line of thinking at all, if Bush doesn't get hurt and Parra pitches anywhere near his career peripherals for ERA this team is probably in the playoff race right now even with the mediocre rotation. I just feel people are being way too result oriented by blaming the rotation. It certainly isn't the teams strength in any way but it isn't so terrible it is hopeless either.
  23. Ennder
    I like Wandy but to expect him to have a sub 3 ERA is stretching things quite a bit. If you had told me Oswalt+Rodriguez were going to combine for 368 IP of 3.45 ERA I'd say you would have had reasonable expectations given their careers so far. The rest of the rotation looked to be worse than what we have and they had a lot of holes in the offense and bullpen. That team was a mess going into the season and needs a complete rebuild.
  24. Ennder
    I have to disagree, they had a number of guys overachieve like Bourn and Wandy that offset those bad players. That was easily a sub .500 team to start the year and I honestly expected them to be fighting it out for last place.
  25. Ennder
    There are really 3 ways to handle the situation next year. 1) Trade Gamel for a team need, probably major league pitching. Doing this carries the risk of McGehee stinking it up next year but we have some other options at 3B in the minors as well. 2) Trade McGehee for a team need, probably minor league pitching. This carries the risk of McGehee actually repeating this and us not getting good value for him and the risk of Gamel not hacking it at 3B. 3) Keep both of them and let Gamel earn the job. This is the safe path as it keeps Gamel as insurance against McGehee struggling. The big problem with this is if they both do well we kind of get stuck with a log jam at one position and don't fill any of our other holes. Any one of those 3 is probably ok as long as the trades bring decent talent in return.
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