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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. That is all well and fine as long as you accept that many people disagree completely with you. That is the entire point. One fan watches weeks and thinks he was terrible last year, the other fan (myself) watched him and saw huge improvements. There is no way to say which fan is correct but if the stats agree with one then it does in some way validate their opinion.
  2. Losing half of their bullpen to injuries is going to kill the US in this thing.
  3. His OBP has been over .400 in 7 of the last 8 years and his OPS has been .896 or better every year since his rookie year including 3 years of over 1.000 and 6 of .949 or higher. Berkman is most definitely an elite guy.
  4. But given how much better Dodger stadium is for him to hit in than Fenway I would guess that a healthy Manny makes the top 10 this year.
  5. Hardy is a very good defensive SS so yeah I'd rather have another Hardy. My point is just saying I've watched him play and if you think he is good you are being silly is not a very convincing argument. I've watched Hall play defense for 4 years and I think his range makes up for his other gaffes overall, he was below average early in the year and average or above average late in the year. That doesn't make you an idiot, it doesn't make you wrong, it doesn't make me wrong. It just shows that trying to judge these things by opinions of a random fan is not a good way to do it. There are still to this day people who don't think Hardy is good defensively either. Even though most metrics love him and tango's scouting page shows him well above average as well. Perception isn't always reality.
  6. Roberts was a better fielder 4 or 5 years ago maybe, but he certainly isn't now.
  7. From 2002 to 2008 Roberts has had 2 productive years offensively and the last one was 2006. Add in below average defense and this player has basically no value. Duffy or Gwynn would be better on defense alone.
  8. Roberts has been a below replacement level player for a few years, glad we did not sign him. He is a downgrade to Gwynn or Duffy without a doubt.
  9. The absolute worst way to judge defense is by a random fans personal opinion from watching the games. There is so much bias in that method that is borderline useless. You want to take 1000 fans opinions than sure it is useful, you want to take the opinion of a scout who gets paid to judge defense that is fine too. But some random fan saying you are an idiot for thinking someone is good or bad defensively is how Jeter wins gold gloves.
  10. The numbers aren't above average, they are above replacement level. Same with the VORP hitting stat. An average player would get paid more than Hall does. He doesn't have to be average to earn his salary. Having said that I think Hall is an average defensive 3B right now. He struggled early in the year but that is to be expected with a position move. This year I'd expect average or slightly above average defense out of him with most likely below average hitting.
  11. Errors dont' mean anything more to me than any other defensive metric. It is all about total plays made, not which missed plays happened to be called an error. Reynolds, Encarnacion and Cantu all had lower fielding percentages than Hall. Aramis Ramirez wasn't much better either. Only 7 3B in baseball had a better UZR/150 than Hall.
  12. Good to see Kendall's mechanics are still looking good. If he can repeat his defense from last year that will end up being a great signing even though I think Melvin got lucky on that one~.
  13. Roberts is a below average defensive OF who can't hit at this point. I'd rather have Gwynn as the backup and I don't think Gwynn should make the team.
  14. McGehee is an above average defensive 3B and hits righties and lefties at an adequate but unspectacular rate. I still don't see Gamel sticking at 3B.
  15. Yeah that is offense only. His defense was around 4-5 runs above average for 3B and then when you apply the 3B positional adjustment he ends up with slight positive value. If his offense rebounds even a little bit he will be worth his contract this year.
  16. I think people are pretty mistaken on how bad Hall's contract is. This is not a contract I'd dump for nothing, they need to get something back out of it.
  17. This is bad news for the Brewers, adds another team that is in the wild card hunt whether it is the Dodgers or the Diamondbacks. Manny will be a monster this year because regardless of what park factors say(we won't go into how flawed OPS+ is again! heh) that park is going to be easier for him to hit in than fenway was.
  18. I somehow doubt Hardy is fast off the line which is one of the more important skills for baserunning. If you really want to argue over these two I'd say Cameron is a better baserunner than either of them and historically has just as good OBP.
  19. Always hard to judge a deal like the Riske one since he got hurt. My guess is regardless of the injury he'd have been overpaid but it certainly looks worse in hindsight than it was.
  20. From what source? Checking another source(Dial's I think it is) I see him coming out at 4.8 runs above replacement. There is absolutely no way he was -5.7 games, I could buy runs but certainly not games.
  21. I'm saying since Hardy(.329) has a better career OBP than Hart(.323) and because Hardy has shown a better growth pattern in OBP and because Hardy has better plate discipline and because Hardy's career OBP is partially suppressed by that first half a season where he hit like crap. I'd say all signs point to Hardy having a slight advantage in OBP. Hart also has clearly shown more power in his career overall and I'd rather see that higher SLG down in the lineup than up in it. I'm of the opinion that Hardy is still to this day underrated mostly because of his first 194 PA in the majors where he put up a lne of .181/.284/.259/.543 and should have been in the minors. From July 3rd 2005 until today Hardy has a line of... .280/.334/.466/.800 and has shown improvement pretty much every year.
  22. Hardy's BB% is 8.1% in his career, his K% is 14.6% and he has 0.6 BB/K. Hart's BB% is 5.7% in his career, his K% is 19.7% and he has 0.31 BB/K. Hardy has better plate discipline. Hart's OBP in 2007 was heavily driven by a .327 BABIP and an ISO outside of his expected values from the majors and minors. My money is still on Hardy having a better OBP and Hart having a better ISO in 2009.
  23. In Lee's case he probably has earned his money the last 2 years, it is more the future that is a worry. Also I'm sure I'm letting personal bias get in the way some on my opinion of Lee. Statistically he hasn't been one of the worst LF the last couple of years but I had to watch him field in 2006 so I'm just remembering how terrible he was that year.
  24. There are reasons to believe that a lot of Manny's poor fielding was the wall in Boston. We'll have to see a full year outside of there to know for sure. Carlos Lee could plausibly be the worst LF in baseball though. Using Fangraph numbers Suppan was worth $10.9M in 2007 and then -0.4M in 2008. If we had signed him for $7M a year I'd have been fine with it so yeah we certainly overspent on him. Hall was worth $6.8M in 2007, $4.3M in 2008. So far he has been underpayed over the last 2 years and it wouldn't take much improvement for that contract to end up being a small bargain.
  25. Hardy has better plate discipline than Hart so will likely get on base more. Hardy is also known as a big time fastball hitter and if any part of protection is actually true (which it may not be) the part about getting more fastballs in front of good hitters is probably the biggest reason. I think they are fine the way they are.
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