Ennder
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Everything posted by Ennder
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Bob Abreu to Angels 1yr/5mil plus incentives
Ennder replied to RyDogg66's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Last year it was Abreu, in general I'd say Burrell. As for Abreu vs Cameron, Cameron is easily the better player and it isn't really that close. However Abreu at $5M might be better than Cameron at $10M, with that large of a price gap it becomes much harder to judge. However I cannot stress the fact that Cameron is a better player than Abreu right now, if you think otherwise you really need to re-evaluate how you judge players. -
I take it you think economists, meteorologists and all statistitions should be fired from their jobs? Afterall I can look outside and guess at what the temperature will be tomorrow and get it right sometimes. Sorry but you are just being silly with this opinion. You cannot predict breakouts, injuries etc and predicting this stuff is not anywhere near 100% accurate, it doesn't mean there isn't value in the projections.
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No Parra should be fine this year and he shouldn't break down like he did last year. Parra should be able to pitch 180-190 innings this year. Gallardo maybe limited more so than Parra's will be this year. I would expect Gallardo to be limited in innings in the early part of the season.Will Carroll who studies this type of thing says Gallardo should be fine for 200 IP since it wasn't an arm injury. Parra is likely a 180 IP or so starter this year. Parra also throws higher stress innings in general, though hopefully he starts throwing more strikes and it evens out some.
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Adam Dunn signs with the Nationals for 2 years/$20 mil
Ennder replied to And That's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
They still stand virtually no chance at .500 given the rotation. Olsen and Cabrera would have to both break out to get them even close to an average staff. -
Adam Dunn signs with the Nationals for 2 years/$20 mil
Ennder replied to And That's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Moving Hart to CF and replacing Cameron with Dunn is a downgrade to the team, the money obviously decides whether or not it would have been a downgrade worth making. -
The biggest reason to use projections for something like this is they aren't biased. Some people on this forum think the Brewers are a 75 win team, some think an 85 win team. PECOTA doesn't care, it just runs the number and spits out the data.
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BPro has us at 85 wins, is 4 extra wins from their projections really so huge? We lost about 10 wins of talent in the starting rotation, picked up 2 wins back from Looper and 2-3 from Gallardo and had an offense that probably underproduced expectations last year. Somewhere around 84-86 wins is pretty accurate but if they are high on Parra, Weeks and Fielder as an example I could see 89.
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Just to add one more reference, here are the PECOTA projections Gallardo: 3.73 Bush: 4.27 Parra: 4.40 Looper: 4.62 Suppan: 4.91
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PECOTA added Looper today and we moved up to 85 wins.
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I don't think Melvin did a bad job this offseason at all but I do think we had a weak one. We got very little back for the players we lost. As for the top 3, I'd take the Rays offseason over the Red Sox.
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Bush is actually the best pitcher on the team deeper in games, it is the first inning that gives him fits. He had a couple big innings late in games in early 2007 and people STILL think this for some reason. Bush has a career OPS against of .749. The 3rd time through the order it is .764, pitches 76-100 it is .725. The majority of pitchers show much worse late pitch trends than that.
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I'd say it is probably more important in the NL where the pitcher makes the last out a little more frequently. Obviously the leadoff hitter leads off in at least 20% of his ABs and I bet it is more than 25% so in general with the bases empty I'd like high OBP and don't care as much about SLG. It isn't hugely important but I think the way teams prefer to set it up works ok. It is the low OBP but fast guys that have no business leading off.
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It is just trying to fill in innings because everything gets regressed assuming that pitchers will get hurt through the year. Looper will likely replace 150 innings of 5.50+ ERA in the projections and move us up to 85 or maybe even 86 wins depending on how the close we were to 84 before.
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There is no reason to think Gallardo will only go 5 or 6 innings and Parra should pitch deeper into games this year most likely, in the middle of the year Parra was going into the 7th on a regular basis, it was just early in the year when he couldn't throw strikes and late in the year when he was wearing down that he struggled with it. Part of the growing process.
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It does not include Looper, it was at 83 when it came out which was before Looper signed. Last years projected standings can be found at this link. Brewers were projected for 88 wins. http://310tojoba.blogspot...ions-national-league.html
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Ok so this is where we strongly disagree. He has above average range, it just isn't flashy looking. He can play a bit deeper because of the strong arm as well which helps. He is nowhere near below average defensively. The stats tend to agree as well so I feel I can use them as validation for my opinion.
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Ok, I think he is underrated defensively so that is where we are seeing things differently http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif. He doesn't make flashy plays but he has above average range and makes the plays he gets to. Fielding Bible had him as the 3rd best SS in baseball last year and UZR/150 had him as the 2nd best.
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Seems to me that people still don't believe Hardy is legit on this site for some reason. Last year he was having a great spring training and then had an illness where he lost 10 lbs right before opening day. He came out flat hitting all of 2 HR in April+May. From June 1st on here is the statline he put up... 384 AB, .299 AVG, .351 OBP, .552 SLG, .903 OPS with 49 extra base hits in 94 games while playing very good defense. This is a a premier young talent in the NL that we seem to not give enough respect to. I'm going to make a bold prediction and say this year or in 2010 he hits the 30 HR mark. 2007 wasn't a fluke and neither was 2008. So far the biggest failure of the offseason is that we haven't locked Hardy up longterm before his price tag gets ridiculous.
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Well he 'lived' in it in the minors too. His basic profile is a high K groundball pitcher. The big question mark is with durability and control. In the minors he had pretty good control, so far in the majors it has been spotty.
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I'd have a lot more hope if he pitched in a different park and with a better defense behind him.
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It isn't just Brewer fans. Parra is a massive breakout candidate in fantasy baseball. Take a look at these charts at this site. http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/baseball_beat/ Very few starters live in that NE quadrant that don't become a success and almost everyone that lives there becomes a #1 or #2 type pitcher. A high strike out groundball pitcher is money pretty much, these are the types of pitchers you want to build a staff around. Shandler listed his upside as an 3.25 ERA. In the second half last year Parra struck out 9 per 9 innings and lowers his BB to 3.3 per 9 for an xERA of 3.19 which is closer to his MLE's, he was just destroyed by BABIP in the 2nd half(probably from wearing down in his first full year). Parra probably has more upside than Gallardo to be honest, Gallardo is just more of a sure thing.
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I don't disagree however if you isolate his second half stats he showed the best skills he has shown as a Brewer. He very well may have figured something out in the second half. His first 15 starts he went 90.2 IP, 46 K, 26 BB, 5.06 ERA and a .787 OPS against. His next 14 starts he went 94.1 IP, 63 K, 22 BB, 3.34 ERA anda .642 OPS against. Both of those included lucky BABIP but it is nice to see the K's go up and BB go down in the second half, back to where he was in 2006 which was his best season.
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Suppan gave up a lot of HR after his injury, other than that he was more or less the same pitcher he has always been. I really wouldn't worry about him falling off a cliff. Now being worried about his body physically breaking down would make some sense to me.
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Gallardo Bush Looper Suppan Parra That is how I would line it up. Parra's innings are still a big concern so I'd chip off a few innings by making him the #5. Will Carroll said that Gallardo most likely should be fine for 200 IP and he knows this stuff better than I do so I'll trust his judgement.
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Sports Illustrated Reports AROD Tested Positive for Steroids
Ennder replied to PeaveyFury's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I'd give this title to the NBA. I'd say Maddux is the best clean player of the age.
