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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Our rotation is being seriously underrated.
  2. Ennder
    Strange, it isn't blacked out for me and I live in wauwatosa.
  3. Ennder
    Every player that the Brewers give a contract to gets hurt, it is annoying.
  4. Ennder
    If I'm remembering correctly Escobar had a lot of bunt hits last year, that would result in a high BABIP if his success rate at it was very high. Fast groundball hitters tend to sustain better BABIP as well. Slow HR hitters tend to have lower than average BABIP since flyballs have the lowest BABIP of any outcome and they have low value from their groundballs as well.
  5. Ennder
    I think the Cubs are worse than last year, but so is almost everyone else in the division (with the exception of the Reds). They still win it by 5+ games but they probably aren't the best team in the NL this year by playoff time.
  6. Ennder
    PECOTA likes us for 2nd and it is the one I trust the most so its all good~. I play DMB and it is a pretty flawed game for season reruns, especially considering some of these systems don't include defensive projections so I'm assuming they used the same defensive numbers for each different projections system.
  7. Ennder
    Makes me feel at least a little bit better about the Suppan deal!
  8. Ennder
    I have read so many people on fan forums post that the Astros are going to be a good team this year that when I read it I figured he was serious since there was really no humor in it. I just reread it assuming it is a joke and really until the final line there is no humor in this article.
  9. Ennder
    I don't ignore talent and scouting, I ignore random fans opinions of players. If the Brewers bring up Escobar and say that he has all the tools to succeed as a hitter at the major league level that is one thing. If scouting reports say this is a bat that will play in the big leagues right now then I can believe it. Almost every scouting report I've read on Escobar is dubious about his bat. Escobar should be in AAA this year, there is no good reason to assume he can skip AAA completely and succeed in the majors as a hitter given his skillset. One fans observations do not out weigh scouts and stats for me.
  10. Ennder
    So I like him so he should be fine is what you are saying? projections aren't perfect but they are based off the best data in general. They are pessimistic in general because the reality is that most players fail their first time through the league. That is why so many sure thing prospects take 2, 3 or even 4 years to produce at their minor league rates.
  11. Ennder
    McGehee with the walk off!
  12. Ennder
    I definitely agree that it is risky but I don't think we will be in a situation where it makes sense to trade him in the next couple years and I dont' think the team will be able to afford him when he hits the market. I think we'll end up just letting him walk and hope it works out.
  13. Ennder
    Depends on what you mean by Elite. Right now Tulowitski and Everett and maybe Yunel Escobar are the cream of the crop, he is not in that level yet. Tulo only showed it for one year and Everett hasn't been healthy recently. Hardy compares very favorably to the rest of the SS out there in baseball and has more range than say Jack Wilson or Derrek Jeter who get a lot more accolades. He plays a bit deeper and uses his size and arm more so he isn't flashy. SS has become more and more of an offensive position so I'm sure the overall defense at the position is lower than in earlier eras.
  14. Ennder
    The Pirates are going in the right direction. They just have a long path ahead of them still. The Pirates are in the same situation the Brewers were in 10 years ago,a small market team that was poorly run as well. They just got in new and much improved management and things will start to turn around there now. The Astros are more likely to be fighting with the Pirates for 5th place than with the other teams for 2nd place though. That team has holes all over the place, CF, 3B, #3, #4, #5 SP. A 2B who is injury prone and a SS who looks to be on the wrong side of his career. Pence, Berkman, Oswalt and Lee are talented but it isn't enough. They need some big rebounds, career years or just luck to end up .500.
  15. Ennder
    Well I'm not going into the one mans opinion outweighs statistics argument again, it just gets us nowhere. Just because you think JJ is an average SS doesn't mean everyone else does or that he is, we can leave it at that.
  16. Ennder
    Thats fine, they just happen to be the people who earn money by evaluating defense. When the fielding bible likes a teams defense it has some meaning behind it. JJ Hardy was the 3rd best SS in the NL last year statistically, not sure how that isn't top notch. He was the 3rd best SS in baseball defensively according to plus/minus last year and has been the 5th best over the last 3 years. edit : apparently yuku doesn't like the symbols for plus/minus, just showed up as blank~.
  17. Ennder
    I would let Hardy walk and hope we get the good draft pick personally. Our money needs to go towards Parra/Gallardo if they are healthy and filling any holes we can't fill from within. I just think Hardy is going to produce his way out of our plans. If he hits 30 HRs one of the next 2 years or sees another uptick in his OBP I just don't see how we can afford him.
  18. Ennder
    Keep in mind that is all theory though, you would have to actually do some work to prove it and I'm not buying it. I doubt the difference between Suppan pitching #1 and Gallardo #3 and setting it the other way around is even 1 win over a full season. The only way it might be 1 win is if the #1 happens to get that one extra game pitched. As for Bush on the road, studies have shown that on average all pitchers pitch worse on the road and that interestingly enough BABIP against goes up on the road as well. I don't think it is a stretch of the imagination that some pitchers have more problems on the road than others and for my money he has a big enough sample that I'm buying it. You obviously aren't.
  19. Ennder
    First I'll say Marmol is overrated, his peripherals do not support what he has done at all. This is a mid 3 ERA skillset he has, not a sub 3 ERA one. The 4+ BB/9 and 55% FB will catch up with him eventually. In 07 he was saved by an insane 91% LOB and 08 that normalized but he was blessed with a .185 BABIP, this is a pitcher looking at a major regression. I think Gregg keeps the job until he gets hurt personally, his bad streak last year was because of knee problems and he was abused a good bit the past few years so it won't surprise me to see him hit the DL again at some point.
  20. Ennder
    JJ Hardy is a well above average SS, I wouldn't want to move i were him either. It is still a business and JJ hitting the FA market as a SS is going to be worth a huge contract as one of the top SS in baseball.
  21. Ennder
    His one 'ace' season was more luck than good, 3.82 xFIP that year. This was always a 4+ ERA guy talent wise and that is in the NL in a pitchers park, not surprised at all to see him fail in the AL. Only thing he had going for him before was the goofy delivery and they tried to 'fix that'.
  22. Ennder
    Mike Lamb hit .236 in 2005 and then .307 and .289 the next two years so we can probably stop harping on the .235 AVG. He gets under 400 AB a year which means his AVG is going to be borderline random in any given season, he only got 247 AB last year which makes it even more so. Not surprisingly in 2005 he had a .261 BABIP and last year he had a .268 BABIP. What worries me with Lamb is that his BB rate dropped and his ISO plummeted last year. If those trends don't reverse in a hurry he is going to be useless to us. Regardless we are talking backups who will barely play in April so I can't lose any sleep over it.
  23. Ennder
    I was hoping to see the real lineup since it is televised. This isn't as good http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif.
  24. Ennder
    Mark DeRosa
  25. Ennder
    Hardy is exactly the player I thought he would be so far. So yeah kind of odd that they made that comment. If anything the Cubs were rated too high in that list. They scored mediocre in every category except major league talent. To me that comes out to a B+, not an A-. So they overspent on a bunch of guys and got a good team for a couple years, they are going to have a ton of dead money soon locked up in declining mediocre players and not really much coming up in the minors to replace it. I don't think that Cubs team is going to stay great for many more years.
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