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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    His arm slot has dropped the last two years which is something usually caused by an injury or tired arm. He fits the profile of the 'horse' who wears out young like a Livan Hernandez type as well so people (myself included) tend to read even more into his numbers because of that.
  2. Ennder
    That very well could be. His ERA by month has always jumped all over so not too suprising to see it jump around last year. The more runners you are putting on base and the more HRs you give up the more chances you are going to have to see spikes in your ERA with LOB% and HR/FB.
  3. Ennder
    Of course if you know how to use it, it isn't useless. As strawbossevil pointed out their hitters all beat their own baseline BABIP so unless almost every hitter on the team suddenly got adept at using the entire field this is wrong.
  4. Ennder
    The AL central of last year is a great example of how anything can happen. I thought the Indians would run away with things and they got decimated by injuries. I thought the Twins would be sub .500 but they had the most luck with RISP in all of baseball and almost won it. I thought the White Sox would be sub .500 but they had a bunch of break out guys produce way more than expected. I thought the Tigers would be in the running for the wild card because of the offense(never liked their pitching) but the pitching cost them more than expected. Anything can happen.
  5. Ennder
    This confuses me. The Brewers have not improved but I still think they are over an 81 win team, The cardinals and Astros are worse than last year most likely, if any team is in the race with the Cubs and the Brewers it is the Reds which you don't mention at all. The Reds actually have quality young talent while the astros are just an old team getting older and the cardinals young talent is mostly a couple years away still.
  6. Ennder
    What kind of issues? I was getting that service is not available errors constantly and I just swapped boxes and it fixed the issue completely.
  7. Ennder
    He is better than Ibanez who is also a horrible fielder, the phillies really have to be kicking themselves for that signing.
  8. Ennder
    last year NL players had a .342 OBP batting from the leadoff spot. Weeks hit .342 on the nose so was exactly average. He was above average in 2006 and 2007.
  9. Ennder
    Maybe McClung will go all Dempster on the league, who knows~. I'm also not convinced 80 IP of 3.50 ERA RP when used in the highest leverage situations isn't as valuable as 190 IP of 4.50 ERA starter. A RP who is used like Marmol was last year is getting a lot more value out of each of his IP than a starter. I just don't know if that value is enough to make up for the fewer innings or not.
  10. Ennder
    This is something I just don't understand. He produced almost exactly as expected by his career numbers so far. This is the pitcher he is, a mid to high 4 ERA guy. I expect next year he sits somewhere between 4.50 and 5.00 again because that is his talent level.
  11. Ennder
    Garland throws 89-90 MPH at this point in his career and he only throws his fastball about 8-10% more than Suppan so I highly doubt their approach is so significantly different that it would give Suppan a 15 ERA. http://www.fangraphs.com/...ayerid=232&position=P I don't see why this comparison confuses anyone. Pitcher A 4.63 ERA, 5.01 K/9, 2.99 BB/9, 4.79 FIP, 1.40 GB/FB, 11.6% HR/FB Pitcher B 4.47 ERA, 4.71 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, 4.74 FIP, 1.29 GB/FB, 10.8% HR/FB You really don't get much closer than that when looking at two pitchers and in fact I'd say pitcher A has the better skillset over a full career though some of those skills have slipped some. The biggest difference between the two is that Garland has a career .289 BABIP I would guess from the White Sox having good defense from 2001-2005 since his BABIP has reverted to expected ranges since then and Suppan has a career .300. Sure age and league favors Garland a bit more but he is getting older and his peripherals are going in the wrong direction at this point and he has a very bad skillset to begin with as only a moderate groundball pitcher with low K totals and without elite command. This is not a significant upgrade over Suppan, maybe 0.25 ERA of talent or so.
  12. Ennder
    Villy has been so much better as a RP that at this point I'd probably just leave him in the bullpen and use him in a Marmol type of role where he comes in for a tough spot in the 7th and then does the 8th as well.
  13. Ennder
    5 starts from the end of the season his peripherals and ERA pretty much matched his 3 year averages. The slide is still mostly just a bad finish. He is the same mediocre pitcher he has always been and that type of guy is going to see his ERA jump all over the place.
  14. Ennder
    Garland 06-08. 4.51, 4.23, 4.90 ERA. Suppan 06-08 4.12, 4.62, 4.96 ERA They have the same exact skillset, they both sit in the 190 to low 200 IP most years, they both use 4 pitches, Garland throws 1-2 MPH faster with his fastball and uses it more. xFIP actually prefers Suppan over Garland, FIP prefers Garland. I mean seriously if you want this guy you basically want Suppan, about the only thing Garland has going for him is he did it in a slightly tougher league and is younger.
  15. Ennder
    He is our 4th starter, only we call him Suppan and pay him more. Same exact guys. Though the fact Garland is younger is obviously an advantage as well.
  16. Ennder
    On paper the Brewers definitely have not improved. They still could end up improving based on breakouts of young players etc, but that is a hard thing to depend on. I mean if Braun improves even more, Fielder hits 50 HR again, Weeks gets his OBP up to .370 and Hart looks like his first half from last year all year, this is a really good offense. If Gallardo repeats what he has done so far all year and Parra pitches the way he did the middle of last year all year we have an above average rotation. Most likely all of that won't happen, it will take a perfect storm for this team to take the division. Same thing can be said about the Reds who also have a very young team.
  17. Ennder
    I don't think they are really any better than last year and they are riskier than last year. I do think the central in general is weaker so the Cubs will probably be around 90 wins barring major injuries which of course could easily happen with that roster.
  18. Ennder
    Suppan strikes out a few more than Garland, Garland walks a few less, they are roughly the same in GB/FB. These two are very close to each other. If you use xFIP you see Garland with a trend of 5.15, 4.31, 4.82, 5.02, 4.65. Suppan has a trend of 4.73, 4.55, 4.86, 4.85, 4.91. These two guys are about as close to the same pitcher as you can get. Suppan K's a few more, Garland BB's a few less, otherwise they are twins.
  19. Ennder
    I'd rather have Looper than Garland and I can't imagine he would cost as much. Of course I'd rather have Garland at $6-$8M than Suppan who is the same pitcher and costs more.
  20. Ennder
    I'd be pretty shocked if Sheets gets a 3 year deal unless it is incentive laden and has a way to opt out of the 3rd year.
  21. Ennder
    Before we say Sheets is desperate I think it is only fair to look at the other free agents out there. If you had a lot of cash you could buy this team off the top of my head. C - IRod/Varitek 1B - Dunn 2B - Hudson SS - Cabrera 3B - Crede/Wigginton LF - Manny CF - Edmunds/Griffey RF - Abreu SP - Sheets, Perez, Garland, Wolf, Looper, Glavine RP - Gagne, Isringhausen, Springer, Cordero, Cruz That is a 2nd place team in the central most likely with a shot at 1st.
  22. Ennder
    Mulder is an extreme groundball type so he should be able to be effective even if he loses a little velocity. Might not be the worst gamble to take.
  23. Ennder
    I would say the thought that the Brewers didn't mismanage is a huge stretch. Too many innings in 2004, brought back too soon in 2006, pushed way too hard in the first half of 2008.
  24. Ennder
    This is true though I'm not convinced Gamel will be a better player than Overbay or that Escobar will be all that much better than Counsell in his prime at least.
  25. Ennder
    I'm not really sure I believe this. You could just as easily say the higher ISO of player A will lead to more runs. Never seen a good correlation between runs and average that suggests that it would be true.
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