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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Sheets was one of the most abused pitchers in baseball in 2004 even though they knew his back was troubling him and we were cruising to a 67 win season. He was brought back early in 2006 from his injury as well, it was supposed to be roughly a year and he came back in like 8 months. Then last year after 3 partial seasons when he probably should have been babied he again was one of the most abused pitchers in baseball until the all star break. Some of that is Sheets fault as well as he never wants to come out of the game but the Brewers do not have a good history of treating pitchers properly. They also pushed Capuano in his first complete season pitching him on 3 days rest down the stretch just to try to get him to 20 wins even though he broke down the year before.
  2. Ennder
    His last 20 starts of 2008 he put up a 3.91 ERA with even better peripherals, 102 K, 49 BB in 110.2 IP and a .715 OPS against. He is young and put up stellar numbers in the minors. I don't think I'm putting too much faith in him at all. He most certainly projects as a future #2 and I'd say if he does go into #3 range it will be closer to a 4.00 ERA than a 4.50. To be honest the projection I have the least faith in is Bush as a #3, he is the type of guy who is going to have very erratic ERA's and I could see him being closer to 5 than to 4.
  3. Ennder
    If I had to classify pitchers I'd probably say a 3.5 or lower is a #1, 3.5-4.0 is a #2, 4.0-4.5 is a #3 and 4.5-5.0 is a #4 with a 5.0+ being a #5. The reality is actually worse than what I posted but I think a lot of the #5 stats are really put up by #6+ who get more innings. Suppan pretty much slots right into that #4 in my opinion and McClung probably is a #5. Bush slots in as a #3 just fine and I could see Gallardo being a #1 and Parra a #2. The problem becomes when someone gets hurt, there is no depth at all.
  4. Ennder
    I don't think you can really read anything into what Melvin says, he doesn't like to show his hand. Just like earlier this year when he said he wasn't really interested in spending a lot of money on a closer and suddenly we have Hoffman.
  5. Ennder
    But will he be able to go 200+ IP is the real question or will he hit a wall at say 150 because of the missed year. We already have duratility concerns with 3 of the other 4 members of the rotation, adding Gallardo we have 4 of 5 pitchers who can't be 'counted' on going 200 IP. That really means we need a real #6 SP most likely.
  6. Ennder
    But will he be able to go 200+ IP is the real question or will he hit a wall at say 150 because of the missed year. We already have duratility concerns with 3 of the other 4 members of the rotation, adding Gallardo we have 4 of 5 pitchers who can't be 'counted' on going 200 IP. That really means we need a real #6 SP most likely.
  7. Ennder
    But will he be able to go 200+ IP is the real question or will he hit a wall at say 150 because of the missed year. We already have duratility concerns with 3 of the other 4 members of the rotation, adding Gallardo we have 4 of 5 pitchers who can't be 'counted' on going 200 IP. That really means we need a real #6 SP most likely.
  8. Ennder
    I'm absolutely fine with the rotation as it sits. I just think we need a depth arm, I don't even care if it is a 4.80 ERA type. Just so we aren't completely screwed by the first injury to a SP.
  9. Ennder
    Except Kotsay and Kapler are a downgrade offensive, defensively and health wise to Cameron JohnBriggs. And Abreu is less valuable a player than Cameron is, defense does count you know. I think everyone is a bit worried about the rotation but I don't think letting Cameron walk would have changed anything. We still wouldn't have gotten Sabathia, it wouldn't change what they are offering Sheets and I highly doubt we would have gone after Lowe or Burnett. We still probably have the salary room for a Looper type if that is the route they choose to go. Gallardo's injury really put us in a tight spot, if he had gone 180 IP of great pitching last year I don't think anyone would be nearly as worried now. We would have our mostly proven ace and then parra/bush slot in ok at 2/3 and suppan and whoever make 4/5 fine. It all hinges on Gallardo in my opinion.
  10. Ennder
    Except Kotsay and Kapler are a downgrade offensive, defensively and health wise to Cameron JohnBriggs. And Abreu is less valuable a player than Cameron is, defense does count you know. I think everyone is a bit worried about the rotation but I don't think letting Cameron walk would have changed anything. We still wouldn't have gotten Sabathia, it wouldn't change what they are offering Sheets and I highly doubt we would have gone after Lowe or Burnett. We still probably have the salary room for a Looper type if that is the route they choose to go. Gallardo's injury really put us in a tight spot, if he had gone 180 IP of great pitching last year I don't think anyone would be nearly as worried now. We would have our mostly proven ace and then parra/bush slot in ok at 2/3 and suppan and whoever make 4/5 fine. It all hinges on Gallardo in my opinion.
  11. Ennder
    Except Kotsay and Kapler are a downgrade offensive, defensively and health wise to Cameron JohnBriggs. And Abreu is less valuable a player than Cameron is, defense does count you know. I think everyone is a bit worried about the rotation but I don't think letting Cameron walk would have changed anything. We still wouldn't have gotten Sabathia, it wouldn't change what they are offering Sheets and I highly doubt we would have gone after Lowe or Burnett. We still probably have the salary room for a Looper type if that is the route they choose to go. Gallardo's injury really put us in a tight spot, if he had gone 180 IP of great pitching last year I don't think anyone would be nearly as worried now. We would have our mostly proven ace and then parra/bush slot in ok at 2/3 and suppan and whoever make 4/5 fine. It all hinges on Gallardo in my opinion.
  12. Ennder
    I think that was his point about baseball not being allowed to change the rules. Sports evolve, the integrity of the game is just something people use as an excuse to not change things like say arguing to get rid of the DH. Personally I wouldn't want to see this done in the majors but I could really care less about the WBC so I'm fine with it for that.
  13. Ennder
    I think that statement could mean almost anything and people are just going to assume it means what they want it to.
  14. Ennder
    Cut the baseball season in half at least, make the playoffs all one game events. Basically ruin baseball. I bet at least half the viewers of the super bowl don't even care about the game itself, they just watch it for the event. I know we have a party every year and only a couple of people really watch the game at all.
  15. Ennder
    I'm fine with disagreement, it is the incoherent and just generally idiotic nature of the majority of the posts.
  16. Ennder
    To be fair I'd probably just quit my job if I had to deal with the fanbase that posts on that blog on a regular basis.
  17. Ennder
    It baffles me that people think that this team will be worse than the 06 team assuming no major injuries. This team is better at almost every single position than the 06 one and the pitching is probably better too. Gallardo should be able to match what Sheets did in 06 at the very least, I'll take Parra over Capuano, Bush is probably about the same as that year. Suppan and Davis match up pretty well since Davis put up a 4.91 ERA that year and McCLung isn't likely worse than Ohka, Jackson, Villaneuva, Eveland from that year. Outside of Cordero in the 2nd half that was a pretty darn medicre bullpen as well.
  18. Ennder
    Last year Kendall was one of the best defensive catchers in baseball, I don't have much hope that he'll repeat it though.
  19. Ennder
    Anything that stops me from watching someone like Ben Sheets try to hit is a good thing, don't you be messing with my DH~. If anything they should add it to the NL.
  20. Ennder
    I agree lordofbrewtown, salary caps hurt as much as they help but revenue sharing is a great way to even things out some.
  21. Ennder
    That setup would see the high payroll teams almost never winning the world series. They have to pay vets more than they are worth to stay competitive so they end up with a much lower value per dollar every season. I don't know that this would be any fairer than what we have now to be honest. Lower payroll teams aren't even close to as disadvantaged as people want to think they are. The top 3 or 4 payroll teams have a real advantage but outside of that things are way more even than people want to believe.
  22. Ennder
    I posted something in the statistics forum here that you might want to check out but they looked at a bunch of different methods of getting BABIP including just using the previous years BABIP and LD+12% came out as the worst method of all. As a speedy guy who hits a lot of groundballs he could realistically sit around .320. He isn't going to live at .340 though.
  23. Ennder
    Part of it is a market adjustment with GMs valuing defense a lot more so the expectations for big sluggers who can't field are too high, they are going to need to come down a little bit. Another part is a market adjustment with GMs valuing draft picks more than in the past and most of the guys having problems signing are type A free agents. part of it is the economy of course. Part is that the owners know all of this so they are waiting to find the odd men out so they can sign them at a huge bargain.
  24. Ennder
    http://www.fangraphs.com/...erid=3811&position=SS James has him at .728, CHONE at .723, Marcel at .732, Oliver at .695. My personal projection would be .715 for what it is worth. I don't think he ever said BABIP correlates to runs better than anything else, he simply said if the teams BABIP all drop and the rest of their numbers stay the same the team will score fewer runs. If this happens it means their AVG will drop which means their OPS will drop. Pitchers most certainly do control their own BABIP though, just like hitters do. It mostly depends on how much movement they have, what type of pitches they throw and whether they are a GB or FB pitcher. Nolan Ryan as an example had a career .275 BABIP against.
  25. Ennder
    I'd say Ichiro is a pretty unique case with BABIP. Most players hover between .280 and .320. When you get outside of that range and don't have a lot of data you make an assumption that you'll regress towards that range. If you have 3 years of data it is much safer to regress towards your career rates though. In general groundballs have a higher BABIP and flyballs a lower one so the type of hitter matters a lot. Some parks really inflate it too like Coors. Manny has a career .339 BABIP which is the highest I've seen from someone who isn't fast, though I haven't researched it at all so I'm sure there are others. Pujols has a career .319, Bonds had a .285. Ted Williams a .317. Pete Rose a .319. Tony Gwynn a .341. I'd be surprised if you can't count the number of players in modern baseball that are over.340 BABIP career on two hands to be honest. Very few sit over .320. Now for Theriot if his BABIP drops 20 points it means his average drops which means his OBP and SLG drops which means his OPS drops. My guess is he is more of a .280 hitter and a low .700 OPS type player like a david eckstein.
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