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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. But the hits are taken into account by SLG. Two players with a .350 OBP and .450 SLG are pretty much exactly as productive as each other even if one hits .300 and the other hits .200. The average just doesn't matter if you have the other info.
  2. Well the people who think we will struggle to win 81 games probably are going into the season assuming it is a lost cause, not enjoying it because we will be competitive. There is way too much luck in baseball to ever predict things accurately. Still fun to try to predict things though.
  3. So we sidengrade at best at 2B in order to thin out our rotation and not really save much money? Michael Young is just not valuable in any way so trading for him makes no sense unless he is the only thing missing from your playoff team.
  4. It takes a good 2 years of offensive stats to really know how good a player is and it takes twice as long with defensive stats. Takes at least 500 IP or so with a pitcher as well. Crawford was playing hurt(groin, wrist and ankle injuries) for a big chunk of 2007 and he played LF instead of CF which may make the UZR look worse (he picks some of that value back in the postional adjustement part). Most likely 2007 is also partially just an outlier.
  5. It takes a good 2 years of offensive stats to really know how good a player is and it takes twice as long with defensive stats. Takes at least 500 IP or so with a pitcher as well. Crawford was playing hurt(groin, wrist and ankle injuries) for a big chunk of 2007 and he played LF instead of CF which may make the UZR look worse (he picks some of that value back in the postional adjustement part). Most likely 2007 is also partially just an outlier.
  6. Weeks is not a problem on the team so I doubt Melvin tries to replace him. If he continues to play like this he'll probably just let Weeks walk when he becomes a FA or trade him. Average players have a lot of value and that is basically what he has been in his career.
  7. Initial reports are he accepted it. http://www.ajc.com/sports...09/01/13/braves_lowe.html This is much worse news than say the Bradley signing by the Cubs. Braves are now at least in the race for the wild card making it that much harder for the Brewers to get it.
  8. My big problem with Escobar is that he doesn't take walks and doesn't get the ball in the air much. Last year he had a .450 BABIP and .932 OPS against lefties while hitting the ball on the ground 66% of the time. Those are not stats that he will maintain at a major league level. His numbers against righties might be sustainable, .314/.341/.419/.760 with a .355 BABIP. As the BABIP drops a little you probably get left with a .290 hitter who doesn't walk and has weak power, that is what I think Escobar is right now. Another year of growth in AAA could of course change that opinion, I mean Hanley Ramirez never showed his power in the minors either. I just think people are fooling themselves if they think Escobar should be starting in the majors this year, this is a skillset that could use another year to develop.
  9. Kapler is just your typical 4th/5th OF, he just happened to get hot for part of his miniscule number of ABs last year. Hard to complain about losing him.
  10. I still have problems where I get messages saying it is unavailable. Sometimes resetting my box fixes it, sometimes it doesn't, very annoying. I'll probably end up replacing the box since their hardware generally stinks but I hope it isn't anything more sinister in my cables or anything. Works like a charm on the other TV every time.
  11. I think any speculation on what this contract means is going to be pretty futile. It could mean just about anything.
  12. Upton, Crawford, Burrell, Kapler, Joyce, Perez and they will have Zorbist who can play OF or IF. I'm just not seeing room for Gross there especially since he didn't play very well come playoff time last year. I'd agree that we should have kept Gross last year but I don't think there is any way we trade him if Kapler wasn't off to such a hot start so he certainly was a part of the decision.
  13. Ok then we just disagree on the range of the prospects. I think Zimmerman is a B type prospect that projects as more of a #3 starter and not a top end guy.
  14. I'd say that most likely for the 2nd year in a row Kapler is taking Gross' job away from him. Tampa Bay doesn't really have room for Gross in that OF now.
  15. You obviously don't understand how valuable the C position is if you believe this. Irribaren is worthless though and Suppan is only valuable to a contending team who lost a SP during the season most likely, so I don't fully disagree with you. Zimmerman and Fielder are pretty equal given the major health concerns with Zimmerman at this point. The big problem with trading Fielder is he isn't really worth more than Dunn at 1B and any team that wants to trade for Fielder can just sign Dunn at this point.
  16. I'm not saying I want to go out and deal for Young or anything, but the statement above is completely not true. It isn't perfect but baseballprospectus has him at 22 runs below average defensively over his career and below average in 6 of 8 seasons, this is not a good fielding SS overall. He was a terrible fielder during his peak offensive seasons and now that his offense has slipped his defense has rebounded a little bit.
  17. No he isn't worth it for this year at least. Cameron is simply better than Swisher once you add in defense and it isn't really a close race. The reason they do the deal is for the future seasons which I don't know if it is worth it or not.
  18. Apparently the Cubs lost in the playoffs because of how RH their lineup was as well. Of course they had almost even splits between RHP and LHP and they scored a ton of runs so it really isn't valid. I highly doubt losing Jenkins LH presence is why the team slumped compared to 2008.
  19. Generally a half season of futility is just an outlier and doesn't repeat. Sometimes though it is Andruw Jones style freefall. As for Hall he was pretty bad in 07 and 08, that is a trend most likely and not just an outlier. I don't see Swisher being an upgrade over Cameron especially when you add in defense and there isn't a full time CF on the market. I think we will just keep Cameron.
  20. The majority of our players underproduced compared to their 3 year averages while in their prime. We should expect to score a good bit more runs than last year assuming Hardy, Fielder and Braun stay healthy.
  21. Most projection systems regress towards the mean for young players so it is probably make the Giants look a good bit better than they really are since their young hitters are mostly below replacement level without a ton of upside.
  22. Wonder if that includes Hoffman or not. Seems pretty close to accurate though. If we sign a 2 win pitcher and a 4th OF it puts us at about 85-86 wins which is probably what we will be. It obviously is being pretty harsh on the Angels, I wonder if that is just because projections probably don't like their rotation. Lackey missed time last year, Escobar missed a ton of time, Santana has had such an up and down career so far, Weaver missed time
  23. There is pretty much no way the Sox sign either of those guys if they are type A FA. That is what is holding Sheets back as much as anything else.
  24. I'd love to sign Edmonds, he would be above average defensively in the corners and is still probably average in CF. He still hits righties fine, he knows the pitching in the division already so no playing 'catch up' there.
  25. Cameron is a better player than Young so don't really like that second idea. Young's offense is starting to slip and his defense has always been bad. I wouldn't really want to see Young, Weeks, Fielder and then someone learning 3B (Hardy) as our IF defense either.
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