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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Interesting look at the deal over at fangraphs. http://www.fangraphs.com/.../jorge-julio-to-milwaukee The basic conclusion is the deal is pretty much what he is worth.
  2. Ennder
    I'm guessing that we see Gamel at the all star break if we stick with Lamb.
  3. Ennder
    Gallardo can replace most of what we lose in Sheets and we only had CC for half a year. We don't have to sign 2 big pitchers to repeat last year, we need a very good SP and a mediocre one and we are where we were last year.
  4. Ennder
    I'd be much more worried if he suggested Escobar would make the team this year, I don't see how we can improve by trading Hardy and creating a massive hole at SS that Escobar likely would be. I'd also much rather use our money on a starter or bullpen depth than on a closer which is what he said. A deeper quality bullpen is always going to be better than a weak bullpen with a great closer. I wouldn't worry too much about what Melvin says, most of what he tells reporters is just for show and half the time he does just the opposite of what he said.
  5. Ennder
    This offseason has been as active as most if not more so. It is still just really early, most of the action doesn't start until the winter meetings.
  6. Ennder
    Wilson is a pretty average defensive SS at this point in his career. He might be slightly above average but not by very much.
  7. Ennder
    Nope, Vazquez is a pretty big step above Suppan, especially after you neutralize things for park, team and league. Suppan is a mediocre groundball pitcher who put up ok stats for the best defensive team in the league in a pitchers park, those seasons of his for STL were a product of the team not the pitcher.
  8. Ennder
    Yeah I guess Lidge would have stolen some of the WPA from Torres so he would have only been like 5 Wins better than Gagne. Of course who knows what Lidge would have done under a different situation etc. The stats I enjoy the most are the ones that try to isolate how good a player really was to predict what he will do in the future rather than those that just decide how valuable they were in the past which has all the noise left in.
  9. Ennder
    He is a terrible fielder and I'm pretty sure he is looking for a starting job which I don't see us giving him. He makes some sense as a nice backup guy though.
  10. Ennder
    I'm not buying it. Once CC signs then the Sheets types will start getting offers from whatever team didn't get Sabathia. There is virtually no way he doesn't get at least a 2 year deal from someone and I'm still guessing 3 years. The only way that doesnt' happen is if his elbow is much worse than they said in which case I doubt we even offer him arbitration.
  11. Ennder
    Typical case of a team overperforming expectations one year and underperforming them next year. They weren't as good as their record in 07 or as bad as their record in 08.
  12. Ennder
    The stats that try to assign a win value to players are generally based on future win value more than past win value. Something like WPA is probably what you would want for your closer question. Lidge led all RP with a 5.37 WPA, Rivera had a 4.47. Marmol was the highest non closer at 3.77. The highest Brewer was Torres at 1.13. Gagne had a -.77. So in theory if we had signed Lidge instead of Gagne last year we would have won around 6 extra games. I haven't studied WPA a ton so don't know how accurate it is, I dont' really care what a players value was in the past, I try to focus on what they are worth in the future usually since the past always contains a ton of random noise.
  13. Ennder
    Please oh please don't overpay for Cain who is as much a product of that stadium as anything else. He is exactly the wrong type of guy to go after as an extreme flyball type in a pitchers park. Not to say he is a bad pitcher but he is not anywhere near a #1 or #2 outside of that park, he is more of a #3 or #4.
  14. Ennder
    Dave Roberts is a poor mans Cameron. Same on base skills more or less, much less slugging, not any better of a base runner, worse fielder.
  15. Ennder
    There was never a compelling reason to think that Hendrickson would be a good major league pitcher other than people ignoring stats that matter and obsessing over ERA. He never put up good stats in the minors. A sub 7 K/9 and above 3.5 BB/9 minor league pitcher who isn't an extreme groundball type is just nothing to get excited about at all.
  16. Ennder
    I've never seen a good study on it. Usually they just pick a stat and figure out the correlation to that stat but I think that is the wrong way to go about it. Obviously no projection system is going to be able to predict things like injuries so I'd find the correlation on healthy players only and see how it did and understand that you just can't predict injuries accurately. I'd also want to see correlation by multiple stats and not just one stat. A prediction of .400 OBP, .400 SLG for .800 OPS is not very accurate if the player actually puts up a .300/.500/.800 year. However the correlation of all hitters is usually something like .7 and pitchers is closer to .45 or so. Another problem is they use ERA as the pitching correlation and ERA is just a terrible stat to use. Something like OPS against would be much better since ERA is highly random over even 200 IP much less pitchers who only have 80 or 90.
  17. Ennder
    The Cubs have Fukudome and are looking for a left handed hitter for right field. That should tell you something. yeah that Hendry is not perfect and that the largest market teams generally give up on players way before they should. If money were not part of the equation I'd gradly swap Fukudome and Hart. With the money added in I'm not so sure though.
  18. Ennder
    I expect Gamel to replace Hart or Fielder in 2010 and don't think there is much reason to trade him. Most systems show Hardy as well above average, a couple do show him below average. There obviously needs to be a bit more work on defensive metrics. Hall is a slightly above average defensive 3B most likely, he is horribly below average offensively though and would be at any position but C. I'd gladly just release him and eat the contract rather than see him start somewhere on the team.
  19. Ennder
    The risk in pitchers is all about the length of the contract, the odds of Sabathia staying healthy for 5 years are probably about the same as Sheets staying healthy for 3 even though the injury history and age of the players makes that seem unlikely.
  20. Ennder
    Our bullpen was in a much worse state this time last year than it is now. We had Turnbow who many thought would fail and not really much else. Now we have a good idea that McClung is at least adequate, Villanueva seems to have found his role in the pen and we have Riske who we at least hope can come back healthy. There is an ok core in the bullpen even before signing more players.
  21. Ennder
    I would much much rather have that Sheets deal than Sabathia for 5 years, $100M. Not even close in my book.
  22. Ennder
    There are reports that this deal might not be for real.
  23. Ennder
    Not true at all, we can re-sign Sheets and have Gallardo put up great numbers and improve in the bullpen and improve at 3B and make the playoffs. CC had a great run for us but he isn't the only reason we made the playoffs. We were on pace to be wild card contenders before we ever traded for him and if we hadn't had a complete offensive meltdown the last month of the season we would have cruised into the playoffs and he wouldn't have been the reason for it. You are assuming none of the players improve and we don't do much outside of signing SP.
  24. Ennder
    Or he could be the next Pujols who moved around before settling into 1B or Chipper Jones who got better after he moved back to 3B from LF. Hall had his stats fall because he isn't very good, not because he moved positions. I think Braun could handle CF but it is more of a strain, increased chances of minor injuries etc. I'm also not sure if he has to skill to stay at CF as he gets older and his physical tools slip some so it might be a short term position for him if he did move.
  25. Ennder
    We aren't even at the winter meetings yet and you are worried that we aren't going to make any moves? That seems a big premature considering how much money came off the books this year.
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