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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Are you thinking of the elias sports bureau rankings they use to decide Type A, Type B and other free agents? If so they aren't out yet for this year but this site has a projection of what they might be... http://tigers-thoughts.bl...ected-elias-rankings.html
  2. Ennder
    This is the same guy that brought Weeks and Hardy up too early and who thinks Tony Gwynn Jr is a good hitter and that Brian Shouse should be pitching to Pat Burrell with 2 runners on. Not the guy I'd trust. I'll say it flat out, if Escobar is in the majors to start this season our management has failed us, it would just be the dumbest thing in the world. Starting his clock early so he gets expensive faster and setting him up to fail by rushing him is just not a good move in any way. He shouldn't be a starter until late in 2010 most likely at the earliest.
  3. Ennder
    He would probably put up about the same numbers Hall did last year and Hall cost us almost 2 wins offensively on the season compared to a replacement level 3B(in just halftime play at that). Not really sure if his defense could make up for it. It also starts his clock ticking faster for no good reason and could stunt his growth as a player. I cannot stress enough how BABIP driven that stat line was for Escobar in AA. He hit the ball on the ground over 50% of the time which is going to limit any amount of power he has. His BABIP was a ridiculous .380(it should be high as a speedy GB/LD type hitter but nowhere near that high). He didn't BB nearly enough. His MLE splits vs RH were .265/.293/.342/.635. I'm just not seeing any good reason to start him in the majors in 2009.
  4. Ennder
    The post season is a small sample but it should at the very least be added into the regular season to get total numbers. I'd have to see Longoria do it again next year to be sure of doing that trade though. Longoria is a better overall player, more patient at the plate, better fielder. But Braun might be more talented.
  5. Ennder
    My guess is our 2010 starting 1B is Gamel and that we need a long term solution at 3B. I don't think Escobar is full time until 2011 but others disagree with that and apparently want him starting in 2009.
  6. Ennder
    I still think Gamel is Fielder's replacement.
  7. Ennder
    Not a terrible list though I wouldn't trade him for any of those pitchers. Too much injury risk in Felix, I hate how much the Giants abused Tim last year. Danks won't repeat last year again imo and Billingsly has had too many control problems in his career. I can't answer the question very well in general because of the money side of things, I'd have to spend more time researching contracts than I'd care to~
  8. Ennder
    I got a big smile on my face seeing how excited he was after that.
  9. Ennder
    I don't pay Fielder but I trade him next year not this year because right now his value is low because of what I consider nothing but an off season for him. I'm all for locking Hardy up, I don't have a ton of faith in Escobar so I'm not going to change my plans based on some light hitting defense specialist who might end up being a AAAA guy and might not be in the majors until 2010 or 2011. I don't sign Hart long term because I think his OBP issues are for real and not just a blip in the radar, gotta play wait and see for another year on him. Unfortunately at this point I don't think we can do much with Weeks but take him year by year and hope he puts it all together. Bush/Capuano types are not the type of guys you spend a lot of cash on so I don't worry about those two but if Parra/Gallardo stay healthy next year I start to think about locking them up long term. I think the best idea is to pay for decent OBP guys with good defense and for high potential SP. You let mediocre stuff pitchers, bad fielders and low OBP guys walk because SLG in general is over priced.
  10. Ennder
    I still have my doubts that Escobar will be in the majors before the middle of 2010 so I guess there is no real hurry to trade him. Certainly no hurry for this season.
  11. Ennder
    Gallardo, Parra and Stetter for young guys and of course Gamel/Nelson/Escobar if they get some playtime. I'm also interested to see what Fielder, Hart and Weeks do. Hardy seems to have settled into some more consistent stats, I think Fielder is probably the .900+ OPS guy from 2007 but I'd like to see it happen again first. Hart and Weeks are baffling to me and I could see either of them riding the bench a lot or becoming a star next year, quite the wide range of expectations on those two. Finally not having to see Yost out there for a full year, I just hope we replace him with someone I like http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.
  12. Ennder
    Sadly even the best managers in baseball don't seem to understand that change up specialists excel against opposite handed batters and you need to stack your lineup with same handed guys. When you face Santana, Hamels etc you want to stack lefties, not righties. He actually brought in Torres to face 1 lefty and then a pinch hitter and a switch hitter. The time to bring in Shouse was for the last out of the 8th inning, 2 outs, runner on 2nd and back to back lefties up to bat. I don't think it is a huge deal personally, I'm much more upset by Suppan starting that game than any other move Sveum made and my guess is that was a team decision and not a Sveum one.
  13. Ennder
    In other news there have been rumors that the Giants are shopping Cain and one of the names on the list is Konerko. Sure glad we don't have Sabean.
  14. Ennder
    Because Durham was starting more often than Weeks so most days Weeks wasn't an option. When Weeks isn't in the lineup we don't really have a leadoff hitter so Cameron was as good a pick as anyone else. Same thing with Hall against lefties batting 2nd. With Hart stinking so badly and Hardy "protecting" Fielder there just wasn't much of an option for batting 2nd and Hall does ok vs lefties.
  15. Ennder
    Why do you think that? I don't know that he is the best choice to remain next year, but what did he do that was so terrible?I don't think bunting cures the offense; finding people who get on base does. Batting Cameron first. Benching the 2nd best hitter of the month because he hit .201 in April and May tells me Dale's not very observant. He just seems to be another tired, old school manager that goes on gut instinct, statistical analysis be damned.Very few of the bunts weren't in appropriate places, in fact I find it hard to remember a single one. Hall against a righty, Hart bunting for a hit etc. Cameron is a better option at leadoff than anyone else we had playing every day except I guess Fielder. He did have a very poorly timed hit and run though. The 2nd hottest hitter on the team in Sept was Durham most likely .314/.407/.549/.956. I could really care less about Sveum and I'd rather have someone more experienced but the reasons you listed don't really seem to be true to me.
  16. Ennder
    We were 36-28 in day games so that takes care of 64 games. The other 18 games were probably not shown on FSN or maybe they didn't count the later starting west coast road games.
  17. Ennder
    The price of just about everything has gone up in the last year, why would the price of a ballgame be any different?
  18. Ennder
    Nice letter, I found the attendence statistics very interesting. Now if only we had a better TV deal.
  19. Ennder
    I think it works better on a team level for a couple of reasons. First off OPS is better when you have a smaller range of OBP and SLG outcomes. The flaw in OPS itself is more pronounced at the extremes. A .300 OBP, .500 SLG OPS of .800 is significantly worse than a .400 OBP, .400 SLG, .800 OPS but at a team level you never see those extremes. The park factors the way they are used also work much better when you are using a large sample of players for the same basic reasons.
  20. Ennder
    I think Bourn is the CF still, he had an injury marred season but he showed enough OBP skills in the minors to believe he will stick.
  21. Ennder
    This really just comes off as Sheets hating was the point of his post I think. Parra was worthless in September and was worse before then and you gave him a B. Torres was worthless in September and you gave him an B. Branyan and Kapler were hurt when we needed them and you gave them both better grades. I know you said relative to playing times but did you really expect a pitcher who averaged 134 IP over the last 3 years to hold up for 200+ innings? If you want to make a list of players who 'let the team down' in September I'd put Sheets about 10th on the list.
  22. Ennder
    PAP isn't perfect but I've seen real results from it. The leaders on the PAP board almost universally get hurt or are worse within 2 years of being on it. OPS+ is a good idea for a stat, it just isn't carried out very well. There are players that get a bonus to their OPS+ because of their park while the park actually hurts their production and vice verca, I don't want that in a stat. Like I said, if you aren't compelled by what I've said then it is a useless argument. I don't have the statistical background to go through and prove to you the errors caused by the fact that some parks are hitter parks for some players but pitchers parks for others, if you don't agree with that I can't prove it to you other than to show you a park factor chart which I'm sure you've already seen. (btw I said borderline useless not useless, it has some value it just isn't very high, just giving me 2 players OPS+ doesn't tell me enough to compare the players accurately) Don't get me started on how terrible ERA+ is or we will be here for ages~.
  23. Ennder
    ok well I won't convince you so it is a useless argument I guess. Someone like Adam LaRoche hitting in a 'pitchers park' that increases HR's for LH hitters with almost every road park being a hitters park gets a ton more out of his OPS+ than someone like Kinsler who plays in a 'hitters park' that is neutral towards righties with almost every road park being a pitchers park. If you compare those two players OPS+ stats you aren't coming anywhere close to the reality of how they compare as hitters.
  24. Ennder
    I don't think you'll find a single mathematician that doesn't think OPS+ is partially flawed, the only argument is going to be the degree. 1) It is based on multi year park factors which are flawed to begin with. I like multi year more than single year but it still doesn't account for weather etc which has a lot to do with year to year variation. 2) It treats all players the same. A left handed pull hitter in Fenway is going to get a lot less help than a Right handed one. A slap hitter in San Diego is probably going to gain OPS with the big OF from singles and doubles while a power hitter is going to see his SLG sapped so much he'll be hurt by it. 3) It doesn't try to equalize road numbers as far as I can tell. If one player spends all his time in hitter's parks on the road we don't get those stats equalized with someone in pitcher's parks. That all might seem like nitpicking but when you take a stat that is only 90% predictive to begin with and you add a bunch of extra error sources you get farther and farther away from a useful stat.
  25. Ennder
    I imagine Santana would have been worth a good 3 wins and not playing Gomez would have been worth another 2 or so.
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