Ennder

Sveum is my hero now~

We don't have very many movable parts on the offense and Cameron is one of them. If we want to improve the team OBP next year the most realistic scenarios are a new 3B or a new CF. While Cameron did a great job this year for us it is hard to call him a bargain at his price so if we can find a way to get a player who fits our needs a little more (left handed, higher OBP) it is one of the more logical positions to look at. My personal guess is Cameron is back next year though.

All players are like that(except maybe Pujols!), it is why you come up with a scouting report for them. I think this is trying to place the blame on something in retrospect. The Brewers slumped the last month of the season. They looked terrible at the plate in April as well and it wasn't 'other teams figuring them out', it was just them slumping and not hitting very well. When fielder slumped it was because he gained weight, then he got hot and it was? He sure didn't lose the weight. Point is when a player is in a slump it always looks ugly and it isn't just the other teams figuring them out every time, most of the time it is just them not 'seeing the ball well'.

There was no reason to expect Sheets to have injury issues other than him just being a pitcher who had pitched 200 innings a bunch of times which is generally the risky type of pitcher in general. Over those years he pitched 602.1 IP 3.45 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 41-30 record. Can't really complain with the results other than him not being healthy. For what its worth Beckett over that timeframe pitched 758.1 IP, 3.94 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 63-36 record.

Braun more or less lost all of his value by playing 3B, that is how bad his defense was. He has gone from a historically bad 3B to an above average LF, I wouldn't change a thing there.

I ended up getting tickets from my wife's work so I'll be in section 200, row 9 for game 3. Will be at work for game 4 though WHEN it happens.

I understand there is a bit of a hole at 3rd base right now. However, your prototypical 3b is not a high OBP, lead off type guy. IMHO, finding that high OBP type guy would be the first step that I would hope the Brewers would consider in the offseason in an effort to improve the offense.The #1 priority is improving 3B in my opinion, it is more important than getting LH, it is more important than raising the team OBP. Hall cost us roughly 18 runs of offense at 3B in half a season or almost 2 wins alone. The team can survive with a low OBP, high SLG right handed approach it just isn't ideal. Having dead weight in the lineup is much harder to survive. If we could sign a decent 3B who was RH and SLG heavy and dump Hall OR we could sign a high OBP LH guy to replace Cameron but be stuck with Hall at 3B I'd gladly replace Hall and live with the teams flaws. Hopefully we can do both.

I love Sabathia but that is the type of deal that could cripple us for a long time, I'm as worried about him being injured as I am about Sheets.

Sorry i meant he is a slightly below average defensive RF. He would be a well below average defensive CF.

Well I don't consider replacing Weeks as blowing the team up. If Hall isn't replaced I'll explode myself. My point was you can't trade Fielder, start a bunch of rookies and go into 'rebuild mode' after the season we had. The team can make changes that improve the product on the field but the changes have to be things that help in 2009. The hardcore fan base might understand blowing things up but the casual one won't understand it and I don't think they want to alienate that part of it.

It is more likely we get swept than win 2 games in the series in my opinion. The odds of us taking the series are very very small. The fact Sveum left Sabathia in after the grand slam lowered the odds even more as I don't expect him to bounce back much before that game 5 if it is to happen.

We have lost based on defense and lack of offense. The pitching has been pretty solid overall. CC struggled but he was being massively pinched as well and probably should have never even faced Victorino that inning if the ump had a realistic strike zone. Kind of curious why he wasn't throwing the fastball more.

Fielder is a DH playing 1B, I don't like the idea of locking him up. I think we stick with him until Gamel is ready and then trade Fielder for prospects in 2010 or 2011. We cannot blow up the team the season after making the playoffs for the 1st time in 26 years, it would alienate the fan base. I would love to find a LH CF with good OBP to replace Cameron but just like last year I don't really see a player like that being available.

Here is a breakdown of the team's hitting by EQA. EQA takes into account things like SH, SF, SB etc but it is a rate stat so doesn't qualify for play time. It also doesn't rate clutch hitting which I don't think really has any meaning over a single season when trying to judge how good a player will be the next year. EQA is set up on a scale that matches AVG to make it easy to view. Someone with a .300 is a really good hitter, someone with a .230 is a poor one. Branyan - .303 Fielder - .299 Braun - .294 Rivera - .288 Durham - .286 Kapler - .283 Hardy - .279 Cameron - .277 Weeks - .264 Hart - .260 Counsell - .245 Hall - .235 Kendall - 234 Next I'll look at RAP. This compares offensive runs created by a player to the average runs created for their position for the same playtime. So Hardy as a 16.9 means he produced 16.9 runs more than an average SS would have in the same number of PA. Any player who is negative actively hurt the team offensively this year. Hardy 16.9 Braun 15.5 Fielder 13.4 Branyan 5.5 Cameron 5.2 Kapler 2.3 Durham 2.0 Weeks -0.8 Counsell -7.9 Kendall -10.6 Hart -12.7 Hall -18.4 Pretty much what I expected. Hall and Hart just killed the team this year, especially Hall who cost us 18.4 runs in only half a season. Kendall and Counsell hurt pretty badly but most likely offset a big chunk of their negatives with their defense. Weeks was about average but his defense makes him a below average player. Hardy, Braun, Fielder carried the team.

I fully expect the Brewers to lose in 3. The Cubs might get a win from Harden and then lose in 4.

Offensively Kendall was well below average at C this year. His EQA was .234 which is horrible. Guys like Ruiz, Bako, Mathis, Johjima were worse this year but that is about it for starting C. Defensively he was very good though so overall I was ok with Kendall this year. He just better repeat that defense next year or he could be a serious black hole on the team. He needs to sit out more though. Why put that much strain on a C of that age when you have a reasonable backup, it makes no sense.

I just don't see Escobar being the answer. Yeah he would help the defense but he'd be lucky to put up Counsel's numbers offensively. Kendall, Escobar, Pitcher would be just ugly at the bottom of the order. Escobar isn't major league ready and a year of inflated BABIP in AA doesn't really change that. Hart is a below average RF, I think he would be a pretty significant problem in CF.

Branyan is not the answer at 3B. Statistically speaking he would be great out there but he has never been able to stay healthy with regular playtime. Blalock and Blake look like the only real 3B free agent options and Blalock might still be a Ranger for 1 more year. Durham for another year at 2B platooned with Weeks is probably the smartest option at 2B unless we can trade Weeks for something and sign Hudson or maybe Ellis. For the OF a full season of Kapler would likely be a disaster but he does ok in a bench role. I'd like to go after a LH option who can spot start for Cameron and platoon some for Hart. Someone like an Edmonds would be a perfect fit or we could even go after Edmonds and not pick up Camerons option. That way we have a LH CF with Kapler playing CF against lefties. That might work. I don't think we need an overhaul but we need to get rid of the dead weight which is mostly Hall. We definitely need to raise the team OBP so whatever players we target probably need to be strong in that area.

You really thought that when the Cubs were being blown away and crushing the spirit of the entire fanbase of the Cubs was the perfect time to mention that you think Z's better days are behind him?I didn't really think about it, just posted my opinion. Same thing as earlier in the thread when I defended DeRosa to a Cubs fan saying that when you produce 3 years in a row it isn't a fluke anymore.

That strike 2 on Fukudome was criminal, they have to do something about the terrible umpriring in baseball. I don't care how much people are against computers helping but human error plays way too large of a role in these games.

I know it sucks to lose the first 2 games of the playoffs, but there is no need to ban people from your board for saying that Zambrano has seen his best days already due to arm abuse. I'll say the same exact thing about Sheets and Sabathia because it is the truth. Sad that the forum mods are that obsessive about things on the cub board.

The good pitching and 4 HRs in the series don't hurt much either!

3 cub errors by the 4th inning, this makes our losses seem better at least~

Hall very obviously needs to be upgraded. This is two years in a row where he has been miserable. I'm still undecided on Weeks as he was an above average 2B on the season. The first half he was pretty good defensively but miserable offensively. The second half he was pretty good offensively but his defense slipped again. Seems like the kind of guy who will eventually 'put it all together' and we'll regret losing. I wouldn't mind Brian Roberts replacing him of course. Hart hurt the team this year but I'm not convinced he will hurt us long term. His minor league BB rate was 1 per 12.5 AB. His BB rate in 2006 was 1 per 15.1 PA. In 2007 it was 1 per 15.7. In 2008 it is 1 per 24.3 PA. Why the change? What happened that made him suddenly not take BBs at a semi reasonable rate. If he had kept his minor league rate he'd have had 53 BB this year and had an acceptable stat line at least before the nasty september slump. I don't know what to think about him at this point.

Thought a look at how PECOTA did at projecting the Brewers would be interesting so here goes. Weeks proj - 425 AB, 79 R, 113 H, 24 2B, 4 3B, 16 HR, 54 RBI, 59 BB, 105 K, 18 SB, 5 CS, .265/.368/.454/.822 stats - 475 AB, 89 R, 111 H, 22 2B, 7 3B, 14 HR, 46 RBI, 66 BB, 115 K, 19 SB, 5 CS, .234/.342/.398/.740 Pretty good job overall I'd say. His hits were lower than expected but some of that can be attributed to his .277 BABIP compared to a career .299. Hardy proj - 476 AB, 62 R, 130 H, 27 2B, 1 3B, 17 HR, 66 RBI, 39 BB, 63 K, 3 SB, 2 CS, .273/.329/.441/.770 stats -569 AB, 78 R, 161 H, 31 2B, 4 3B, 24 HR, 74 RBI, 52 BB, 98 K, 2 SB, 1 CS, .283/.343/.478/.821 Again not too terrible. BABIP again is a big part of the difference as he posted a .305 vs a career .282. I think the biggest flaw with this projection was caused by Hardy's first half of his rookie year making him look worse than he really was. Obviously it assumed his health would be an issue still given the start of his career. Braun proj - 603 AB, 112 R, 181 H, 40 2B, 4 3B, 39 HR, 116 RBI, 60 BB, 137 K, 16 SB, 6 CS, .300/.367/.575/.942 stats- 611 AB, 92 R, 174 H, 39 2B, 7 3B, 37 HR, 106 RBI, 42 BB, 129 K, 14 SB, 4 CS, .285/.335/.553/.888 Very solid projection overall with the biggest difference probably being Brauns injury which tanked his stats a little in the last month. Fielder proj - 558 AB, 106 R, 160 H, 34 2B, 1 3B, 38 HR, 110 RBI, 82 BB, 121 K, 7 SB, 2 CS, .288/.384/.560/.944 stats - 588 AB, 86 R, 162 H, 30 2B, 2 3B, 34 HR, 102 RBI, 84 BB, 134 K, 3 SB, 2 CS, .276/.372/.507/.879 Not too bad here though not sure why PECOTA gave most 1B too many SB (not just fielder has that big jump). Fielder obviously slumped more on the year than most expected so I'm not surprised it expected more power than he had. Hart proj - 505 AB, 92 R, 145 H, 33 2B, 5 3B, 26 HR, 82 RBI, 51 BB, 103 K, .288/.358/.527/.885 stats - 612 AB, 76 R, 164 H, 45 2B, 6 3B, 20 HR, 91 RBI, 27 BB, 109 K, .268/.300/.458/.759 The first really bad projection. Even looking at Hart's line before the big slump he was not coming close to walking as much as PECOTA expected. Hart majorly regressed this year. Hall proj - 405 AB, 61 R, 108 H, 27 2B, 2 3B, 19 HR, 65 RBI, 40 BB, 106 K, 8 SB, 3 CS, .265/.335/.481/.816 stats - 404 AB, 50 R, 91 H, 22 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 37 BB, 124 K, 5 SB, 6 CS, .225/.293/.396/.689 Another partially BABIP related failure as his career rate is .315 and this year it was .284. However Hall K'd even more than expected and fell pretty far short on the power expectations as well. Kendall proj - 261 AB, 30 R, 67 H, 12 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 22 RBI, 22 BB, 25 K, 4 SB, 1 CS, .255/.324/.321/.645 stats - 516 AB, 46 R, 127 H, 30 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 49 RBI, 50 BB, 45 K, 8 SB, 3 CS, .246/.327/.324/.651 A shockingly accurate projection other than the fact it assumed an aging C who can't hit wouldn't play full time. Guess it couldn't predict how much his defense improved. Cameron proj - 436 AB, 77 R, 118 H, 28 2B, 4 3B, 21 HR, 67 RBI, 55 BB, 114 K, 14 SB, 4 CS, .269/.355/.493/.848 stats - 444 AB, 69 R, 108 H, 25 2B, 2 3B, 25 HR, 70 RBI, 54 BB, 142 K, 17 SB, 5 CS, .249/.331/.477/.809 Another very good projection it just didn't count on how bad Cameron would be in September. As late as Sept 14th Cameron had a .248/.337/.509/.846 line. His K's spiked more than expected which suppressed his AVG which is the biggest difference in the projection. Overall I'd say PECOTA did a pretty good job projecting the Brewer's offense. The team as a whole seems to have underproduced offensively and that is something I agree with from a qualitative standpoint as well. I expect if we just stay put next year that the offense will be better just by players doing more what was expected out of them but I would hope at the very least we replace Hall out there as he was a black hole each of the last 2 seasons. I'm not sure what to do with Hart but he needs to go back to taking BB at a 50+ a year pace to be a useful player if he is going to play full time