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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Dont' get me wrong I hate Bonds and think he's a complete Nob, but people are really reaching to say he somehow blames the balls for his lack of HR's.. He is blaming his own approach at the plate for it.
  2. Ennder
    Suzuki is one of the top 20 hitters in baseball and should be payed as such, he is also a top 20 fielder which makes him even more valuable.
  3. Ennder
    I didn't take it like that at all. He said he tries not to look at them changing the balls because it gets him thinking about hitting HR's which isn't a good thing.
  4. Ennder
    He had three poor games followed by two strong ones and then got hurt. I think its pretty hard to draw any conclusions about him at this point. My guess is he does about his career average from this point on assuming he's fully healthy.
  5. Ennder
    No, but if a hitter goes 0 for 30 in the playoffs and your team wins he didn't play well, just like a SP gives up 8 runs he probably didn't pitch well. The only talking down anyone has done in this thread are the sarcastic responses of certain posters who decided to try to insult someone instead of posting something useful. The get away with it because its 'cute' but its mostly just rude. /shrug.
  6. Ennder
    3 HR's isn't though, no clue how much those shadows really matter but sounds like he had the worst timing for his at bats.
  7. Ennder
    They mark the balls so they know which balls are part of the record. I think they are marking the last 10 or something like that.
  8. Ennder
    Thehardballtimes system lists us as below average range as an IF but its not the best system out there (the good systems aren't free to fans unfortunately). I'd say at best we are average and those cardinal defenses really were good. Eckstein is above average though not as good as many think, Rolen and Pujols are both legit gold glovers at their positions.
  9. Ennder
    He predicted Weeks to be a 20ish HR guy, he predicted Fielder would hit over 50 HR's at least once in his career... so no thats really not true. He just didn't predict Weeks would have the injury problems.
  10. Ennder
    And I'm the one that is warned for baiting by saying I don't appreciate posts like this? There really is no call for that especially since it just shows you don't understand the point I was making.
  11. Ennder
    OPS against by inning for the entire team. 1 .782 2 .695 3 .691 4 .703 5 .671 6 .914 7 .774 8 .629 9 .671 OPS for pitches 76-100 is .960. Starters should be able to go more than 75 pitches, the team is not going to be able to pull every starter after 75 pitches so not sure I can put the blame on Yost more than on the pitchers themselves.
  12. Ennder
    Half of the posts made towards me in this thread cross the baiting line and I'm tired of it. Not saying anything useful in a post except sarcasm directed at another poster is not funny, its just rude and obnoxious. Tools like K/G, BB/G have been in use for over 20 years. Things like BABIP are newer. The idea that baseball is extremely random over a small sample of stats is very old though, its just more fans realize it now.
  13. Ennder
    I said a pitcher can pitch great and have an ERA of 7 over a month and they can. Pitcher throws 30 IP, gives up 31 H's, K's 30, gives up 8 BB's. Thats a pretty darn good month of pitching but he put at least 39 runners on base, if 23 of those 39 runners put on score he has had a terrible ERA while pitching fine. Sure its not all that likely that 23 of 39 runners score but I'm sure at some point in baseball someone has had a run just like that. A pitcher can pitch well and still give up a lot of runs, there is a difference there that if you try to see I'm sure you will... or maybe you'll just come back with sarcastic nonsense again.
  14. Ennder
    You can use ERA when you have around 400 IP worth of data, before that it just doesn't really say very much. As many other posters have pointed out its a flawed stat for judging a pitcher with a small sample because so much of it is out of his control. Specific to Capuano here are his numbers 2006 - 7.08 K/G, 1.91 BB/G, 10.5% HR/FB, 39.9% GB, 4.09 FIP 2007 - 7.63 K/G, 3.76 BB/G, 10.6% HR/FB, 45.8% GB, 4.39 FIP Career - 7.30 K/G, 3.08 BB/G, 11.8% HR/FB, 40.1% GB, 4.60 FIP As you can see his stats are pretty close to his career stats which would be a 4.27 ERA over 640 IP. His 4.78 ERA on the year is a bit flukish based on a little bit high BABIP and low LOB%. He's actually pitched better in 2006 and as good in 2007 as he did in 2005, he just had a flukish LOB% in 2005 to get that 3.99 ERA. He's always had a problem with consistency, he'll dominate for a few starts then lose his control and get hit around a bit.
  15. Ennder
    I'd argue that Lilly has been the best of the FA pitchers this year when you take contract into account. Of course Lilly has an extensive injury history so its harder to put a value on him. Suppan has basically done exactly what was expected, his ERA is just higher than it should be because of a low LOB% and a slightly elevated BABIP. All of the stats he controls are right around his 3 year averages so he hasn't pitched poorly at all... at least not poorly compared to normal. This is just case #1000 where ERA doesn't tell the real picture.
  16. Ennder
    This does need to be put in context though. In 2004 the 7.04 ERA was due to back to back starts against the Cubs when he was injured and then shut down afterwards. In 2005 they were starting him on short rest late in the season to try to get him to 20 W's. When you put those two seasons into perspective its hard to say 2006 is a pattern, especially since Aug was arguably his best month that year.
  17. Ennder
    I'd rather have Suppan than Vargas, but Bush is our #2 starter with cappy's injury issues in my opinion.
  18. Ennder
    His first 7 games he pitched pretty well other than giving up too many BB's in one game. Then he had 3 bad starts in a row followed by two good games, one bad start and an injury. Judge it how you want but he hasn't been 'bad all year' or anything. Sounds a lot like the argument that Bush is killing us lately even though he's pitched great since the Padres game. All depends on how you want to define pitching terribly. A pitcher goes 6 innings, gives up 3 bloop hits and 1 BB which all score, he ends up with 6 IP, 4 ER some would say he pitched terribly, I'd disagree. In Capuano's case he hasn't pitched all that well in the past month or so but I mean you can't fret over 4 or 5 starts by a starter, EVERY pitcher has a bad 4 or 5 game stretch. Even the Santana's of the world have them and Capuano is no Santana. Add in the injury which can really mess up a pitcher and you have a very uncertain sample to work wtih. You just have to hope he gets healthy and fixes his mechanics and gives you the 4ish ERA I'd expect out of Capuano over 200 IP.
  19. Ennder
    I would be shocked if Fielder's body held up long enough to catch up to ARod who will have the record by that point hopefully. Players with the short stocky frame just don't tend to have long careers.
  20. Ennder
    I think we come out strong on the home stand but I worry about the road games in the division. Being my normal conservative self I'll go with 10-8. The second half is where our depth will shine in general though so I think we win the division by a couple games.
  21. Ennder
    One thing that bothers me is when there is a left-right-left combination coming up with runners on he'll use Shouse to face all 3 guys. With the bases empty I'm fine with Shouse facing a single righty since he doesn't give up many HR's, but when runners are on I just don't like it at all. So far this season its mostly worked out but the overall sample on Shouse is big enough to be pretty sure he'll regress vs righties. For comment #1 other than today I wouldn't say he leaves them in WAY too long. At times he does let them face 1 batter too many but most posters have way too fast a hook in the game threads. IP's by starters are a precious commodity, once you take the starter out you can't ever get those innings back and they are all spent on your bullpen. Overextend the bullpen and you have a late season collapse. None of that is an excuse for today though when he left Cappy in for at 3 or 4 too many batters.
  22. Ennder
    I went to www.fangraphs.com and searched by LOB% and looked at some guys who had extreme values for it. When you are talking just 5 or 6 starts LOB% has as much to do with ERA as actually pitching well does. And if that was meant for me Bruce I never said anything about Capuano pitching well, I said he's hurt and I'm not going to really judge a pitcher during an injury. His May stats look very normal with a few extra hits probably from a high BABIP. His June stats were ugly but only 11 IP. His July stats are during an injury.
  23. Ennder
    Chuck James - May 2nd - June 7th - 3.02 ERA. Pretty good pitcher right? Of course he walked 4.5 per 9 in that stretch and had a .760 OPS against so certainly that ERA doesn't tell the story. Jose Contreras May 16th-June 24th - 5.33 ERA Pretty ugly stretch right? Of course he walked fewer than James, K'd almost the same, gave up a lower OPS against, only allowed 2 HR's. Dave Bush May 3rd-June 10th - 5.36 ERA Elite BB level, good K level, again an OPS against in the .750 range but ugly results in the ERA. ERA just isn't going to tell you what is going on with a pitcher. Its way to dependent on left on base percentages to really mean anything over 5 or 6 starts. Look at stats that don't take 400 IP to stabalize like K/9, BB/9 etc. Granted those aren't as extreme as my original post but its what I found in 3 minutes of research just looking at this years data, I'm sure if you searched hard enough you could find really extreme splits.
  24. Ennder
    Don't know why they don't use it anymore but yes he was known as Tiger Wang.
  25. Ennder
    Yes it is completely useless, you can pitch great for a month and have a 7 ERA, you can pitch horribly for a month and have a 2 ERA. Those are much less useless, but they weren't brought up. The poster just looked at his ERA. In this specific case you have a pitcher who was injured so its going to be hard to really judge them at all in the first place. Capuano looked good for 5 innings today then he tired out and Yost screwed him.
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